Ive been labeled an analytics guy here for a while, but my love or hatred of a player stems more from playing style and habits rather than fancy stats or other. Hated bieksa pre analytics the same way i dont like gudbranson.
- Codes1087

Once you go Asian, you never miss an equation.

Once you go Asian, you never miss an equation.
- VanHockeyGuy

I only ever got half the answers right in algebra. Must be my white side, or the fact im under 5'11

I don't think many analytics guys dismiss +/- as irrelevant or unlucky because they do often measure a players goals for and goals against usually shown as GF% but don't use the "traditional" +/- because of the way it is used by mainstream media, who will use it to evaluate a player based off of one games or a portion of the season.

The reason analytics guys don't believe in +/- is because the sample size is incredibly small and one of the most important rules in statistics is validating your analysis with a large enough sample. Using +/- to evaluate a player based off of one game or even 50 games is still a really small sample. IMO most analytics guys will acknowledge a players season or career +/- as being relevant.

This is why shot based metrics are more popular and generally more proven over a long enough period of time. There are often 60 shots and 100 shot attempts during hockey games but only 4-6 goals. Even this has a lot of flaws in it and this is why analytics guys try to break it down further using zone starts, quality of competition and linemates etc.
- belcherbd

I look at shots for and shots against on teams and I can't believe you can read anything from it. Edmonton and Montreal have been near the top of the league the entire year. They suck.

Teams like Washington, Nashville, LA are in the bottom 10 for shots for but are top 10 in league standings.

Gaunce could take 10 shots a game. Doesn't mean he is ever going to score.

It's worse when you see the Sedin's are very much plus in SF, yet Horvat and Boeser are in the minuses.

+/- is boring.

Can we talk about how Loui Erikdson is on the 4th line and having the worst season ever?

31GP 5 8 13

I really thought he'd have a bounce back year here and play a bit more with the Sedins.
I'm sure he's had some ice time with them, but i would have guessed that coach Green would put him with them more, even though i know they need some speed on their line.
What happened to the guy who used to clean up around the net?

Once you go Asian, you never miss an equation.
- VanHockeyGuy

Ya, I think plus/minus taken on its own is one of the more useless stats – they need all need to be weighted and taken as a whole. Eyes and analytics. I think TG talked about that at the beginning of the year, how he's using both more now.

+/- is boring.

Can we talk about how Loui Erikdson is on the 4th line and having the worst season ever?

What happened to the guy who used to clean up around the net?
- dbot

He looks like the most disinterested guy out there. Soooo invisible for long stretches of games. I think a change of scenery would do him well, but with that contract...

So Hedman only out 3-6 weeks means Tampa probably isn't a prime trade candidate for Gudbranson. I hope JB is able to dump him on TO for something decent

He looks like the most disinterested guy out there. Soooo invisible for long stretches of games. I think a change of scenery would do him well, but with that contract...
- NewYorkNuck

Good luck moving him.
Buyout candidate?
Chris Higgens comes off the books at the end of this year.

So Hedman only out 3-6 weeks means Tampa probably isn't a prime trade candidate for Gudbranson. I hope JB is able to dump him on TO for something decent
- NorthNuck

yeah, i saw that too.
Although another D could be good insurance still...If Hedman out 6 weeks and take another week or two to get up to scratch.

I look at shots for and shots against on teams and I can't believe you can read anything from it. Edmonton and Montreal have been near the top of the league the entire year. They suck.

Teams like Washington, Nashville, LA are in the bottom 10 for shots for but are top 10 in league standings.

Gaunce could take 10 shots a game. Doesn't mean he is ever going to score.

It's worse when you see the Sedin's are very much plus in SF, yet Horvat and Boeser are in the minuses.
- manvanfan

You can always find outliers in any stat the reason why many people believe in shots based metrics is because of the overwhelming correlation between success and possession.

I also acknowledge that this isn't perfect and this why we see more attempts made to refine it using quality of competition, PDO, zone starts ect.

For example I bet gaunce is much more likely to score tonight playing with Skilled players, ditto for Granlund.

Not hockey talk but some music history, on this day 49 years ago the mighty zeppelin released led zeppelin1 and the rock music world changed to heavy fast playing blues, in honor I just viewed there 1970 show at the royal albert hall what an awesome show, forever a zep fan

So Hedman only out 3-6 weeks means Tampa probably isn't a prime trade candidate for Gudbranson. I hope JB is able to dump him on TO for something decent
- NorthNuck

Considering that the reported return of Demers who chose Arizona over Vancouver, I wouldn't hold your breath.

yeah, i saw that too.
Although another D could be good insurance still...If Hedman out 6 weeks and take another week or two to get up to scratch.
- dbot

Perhaps, but if its simply for insurance they might not be willing to pay the price we'd like to get for him

The thing that bothers me the most about the analytics community is the smugness surrounding the "right" stats, and finding stats that tell the "true" story.

If you put heavy emphasis on any statistic in hockey, it will mislead you. "+/- doesnt tell you the whole story, it doesnt factor variables, etc" is the common narrative about why its bad; but the same can be applied for goals. Being a 20-goal scorer makes a player amazing, yet how many bounced in off them or was the work of an amazing linemate, poor defending, EN, etc. Plus/Minus basically gives you the ratio of times you were on the ice for a goal when you were 5v5 (and if you were advantaged/disadvantaged on SH/PP situations), its not a prediction metric
- WhiteLie

I only ever got half the answers right in algebra. Must be my white side, or the fact im under 5'11
- Codes1087

Algebra was the death of me. Could not grasp that garbage.

Give me an essay to write on the other hand. mucch mucchh better

So Hedman only out 3-6 weeks means Tampa probably isn't a prime trade candidate for Gudbranson. I hope JB is able to dump him on TO for something decent
- NorthNuck

Id say make them more likely to trade. They need a RHD with Hedman in the line up. If he was gone for the season they may hang tight and just wait until next season. If this isnt the season for Tampa to go all in I dont know what is.

Its the only thing the team is missing and they have loads of prospects and picks to deal. Send them Tanev and load up on futures.

Might as well put a granny with the twins
- Bettmanhatesus

Ty Carol

I agree. Babcock does line pairings & finds a 3rd wheel who makes it gel. My style👍

+/- is boring.

Can we talk about how Loui Erikdson is on the 4th line and having the worst season ever?

31GP 5 8 13

I really thought he'd have a bounce back year here and play a bit more with the Sedins.
I'm sure he's had some ice time with them, but i would have guessed that coach Green would put him with them more, even though i know they need some speed on their line.
What happened to the guy who used to clean up around the net?
- dbot

He will be on the fourth line until CBA is up and hopefully each team will get a free buy out. If not free buy out he will be in Utica in the next 3 years.

Algebra was the death of me. Could not grasp that garbage.

Give me an essay to write on the other hand. mucch mucchh better
- vancity787

Yah i hated algebra. Math 11 and 12 were tough for me. That and the fact i found myseld checked out of school at that point.

This ^

Keeping an open mind to seeing eye and analytics and not having tunnel vision to one side gives you a better vision of a player than what any scoresheet or database could tell you
- Codes1087

+/- has underlying numbers analytic types don’t look for. Eg a big forecheck & no assist is a huge +. +/- also says a lot about 5v5 play. No stat is a stand alone stat.

Considering that the reported return of Demers who chose Arizona over Vancouver, I wouldn't hold your breath.
- belcherbd

Sorry I don't follow. What does Demers have to do with Gudbranson to Toronto?

Edit: my bad I see what you're saying now, the expected return for Guddy was Demers so we shouldn't expect much. I still think a team like Toronto gearing up for playoffs would pay more however.

Thanks Carol

Sorry I don't follow. What does Demers have to do with Gudbranson to Toronto?
- NorthNuck

When Benning apparently traded him before, all he was able to get back was Demers. So I'm suggesting that Gudbranson's value isn't very much and that he likely won't be able to to get something decent like you hope for.

+/- has underlying numbers analytic types don’t look for. Eg a big forecheck & no assist is a huge +. +/- also says a lot about 5v5 play. No stat is a stand alone stat.
- Nighthawk

We are always on the same page.

When Benning apparently traded him before, all he was able to get back was Demers. So I'm suggesting that Gudbranson's value isn't very much and that he likely won't be able to to get something decent like you hope for.
- belcherbd

I was a minute too late with my edit but see above, i think the price might be better from a prospective playoff team.