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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: On the Winter Olympics and Team USA hockey. Amerks/Crunch in Buffalo tonite
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adambuffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Location: United States, NY
Joined: 01.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 12:54 PM ET
MEDICAL UPDATE: Defenseman Shea Weber will undergo surgery to repair a tear in a tendon in his left foot and will miss the remainder of the 2017-18 season.

DETAILS -> https://t.co/SElWfgd3v2.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 22 @ 12:58 PM ET
See, you could have come right out and said "pretty, pretty good," and that would be less saturated.
- Der Kaiser



Except I don't actually believe that and one metric doesn't prove that. For god sake, Yanni Gourde is ranked ahead of Crosby on this.

Wins above replacement literally breaks down to how many more wins you are getting (based on what has gone into calculating the number) than what you'd get from a league minimum player.

WAR in hockey explains the what, not the why. Which is why Yanni Gourde ranks higher on this list than Brayden Point, despite the fact that 10 other metrics suggest Point drives that line.

It's also worth noting that the guy who came up with this model, developed it by re-hashing an old model he designed which was rejected by sports analytics journals.
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Feb 22 @ 1:02 PM ET
Except I don't actually believe that and one metric doesn't prove that. For god sake, Yanni Gourde is ranked ahead of Crosby on this.

Wins above replacement literally breaks down to how many more wins you are getting (based on what has gone into calculating the number) than what you'd get from a league minimum player.

WAR in hockey explains the what, not the why. Which is why Yanni Gourde ranks higher on this list than Brayden Point, despite the fact that 10 other metrics suggest Point drives that line.

It's also worth noting that the guy who came up with this model, developed it by re-hashing an old model he designed which was rejected by sports analytics journals.

- Sabresfan-365


I understand WAR to be a compendium of multiple metrics though.
The internet tells me "You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players."

Also, it's probably quibbling, but it isn't a comparison to a league minimum player, as I understand it, it's next best freely available player whether on the bench or in the market.

And is a Yanni Gourde BAD?
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 22 @ 1:05 PM ET
I understand WAR to be a compendium of multiple metrics though.
The internet tells me "You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players."

- Der Kaiser


It can tell you who is having a good season to date but it lacks any sort of ability to predict future production and for a sport as "fluid" (i dunno what other word to use here) as hockey it doesn't make much sense.

I know Brock Boeser is shooting well above his expected goals for rate indicating that at some point regression will set in but WAR won't account for that, which ranks him ahead Auston Matthews.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 22 @ 1:08 PM ET
I understand WAR to be a compendium of multiple metrics though.
The internet tells me "You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players."

Also, it's probably quibbling, but it isn't a comparison to a league minimum player, as I understand it, it's next best freely available player whether on the bench or in the market.

And is a Yanni Gourde BAD?

- Der Kaiser


I wouldn't say next best, more like lowest possible cost to replace a player on your roster.

Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Feb 22 @ 1:08 PM ET
It can tell you who is having a good season to date but it lacks any sort of ability to predict future production and for a sport as "fluid" (i dunno what other word to use here) as hockey it doesn't make much sense.

I know Brock Boeser is shooting well above his expected goals for rate indicating that at some point regression will set in but WAR won't account for that, which ranks him ahead Auston Matthews.

- Sabresfan-365



And this brings us to the question math morons like me ask every night.

Why is this not true of all stats?? And why does it invalidate only one stat but not all?
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Feb 22 @ 1:13 PM ET
And this brings us to the question math morons like me ask every night.

Why is this not true of all stats?? And why does it invalidate only one stat but not all?

- Der Kaiser


Answer:

Because those stats don't fit my narrative.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 22 @ 1:16 PM ET
And this brings us to the question math morons like me ask every night.

Why is this not true of all stats?? And why does it invalidate only one stat but not all?

- Der Kaiser



Because some stats do have that ability to varying degrees.

For example, everyones favourite, corsi. It's not the be all end all but if your team is constantly seeing more shot attempts against than shot attempts for, chances are you're going to be bad unless you have a top 5 goalie and some good luck.

Expected Goals For does this too. If your team isn't scoring much but the XG numbers are high you're likely a victim of some tough luck or hot goaltending. Going back to the eye test is key here to confirm it's one of these or if you're team simply can't shoot. If it's not the latter those numbers should eventually catch up over an 82 game season. Not always though.
GilPerreault11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: IL
Joined: 07.21.2011

Feb 22 @ 1:18 PM ET
Not sure how reliable Brian Lawton is but this Trade Deadline time:

@brianlawton9
2h2 hours ago

Nash is a done deal just a matter of what package, McDonagh is much closer to being moved then anyone realizes, Not much out there on OEL. Appears @Senators have answered the question that they absolutely are ready to turn the page on EK. You can cross off at least 1 contender
Shadman306
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 06.11.2015

Feb 22 @ 1:19 PM ET
Not sure how reliable Brian Lawton is but this Trade Deadline time:

@brianlawton9
2h2 hours ago

Nash is a done deal just a matter of what package, McDonagh is much closer to being moved then anyone realizes, Not much out there on OEL. Appears @Senators have answered the question that they absolutely are ready to turn the page on EK. You can cross off at least 1 contender

- GilPerreault11


B9
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Feb 22 @ 1:20 PM ET
Not sure how reliable Brian Lawton is but this Trade Deadline time:

@brianlawton9
2h2 hours ago

Nash is a done deal just a matter of what package, McDonagh is much closer to being moved then anyone realizes, Not much out there on OEL. Appears @Senators have answered the question that they absolutely are ready to turn the page on EK. You can cross off at least 1 contender

- GilPerreault11

Thanks Gil
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 22 @ 1:23 PM ET
Not sure how reliable Brian Lawton is but this Trade Deadline time:

@brianlawton9
2h2 hours ago

Nash is a done deal just a matter of what package, McDonagh is much closer to being moved then anyone realizes, Not much out there on OEL. Appears @Senators have answered the question that they absolutely are ready to turn the page on EK. You can cross off at least 1 contender

- GilPerreault11



https://twitter.com/brian...status/438152652535242752

I am hearing that it is not likely that Ryan Miller will be traded by the Deadline and Sabres are turning attention towards re signing him.
GilPerreault11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: IL
Joined: 07.21.2011

Feb 22 @ 1:23 PM ET
Thanks Gil
- cabin


Sure, these are my sources and I'm not clamping up I kid, I kid.
GilPerreault11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: IL
Joined: 07.21.2011

Feb 22 @ 1:28 PM ET
https://twitter.com/brianlawton9/status/438152652535242752

I am hearing that it is not likely that Ryan Miller will be traded by the Deadline and Sabres are turning attention towards re signing him.

- Sabresfan-365


He said that back then? Well, none of us are perfect. Incarcerated Bob made a great call when he said the Sabres would get Brad Boyes a few hours before it was announced on deadline day. He is another one of my sources.
GilPerreault11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: IL
Joined: 07.21.2011

Feb 22 @ 1:29 PM ET
He said that back then? Well, none of us are perfect. Incarcerated Bob made a great call when he said the Sabres would get Brad Boyes a the night before it was announced on deadline day. He is another one of my sources.
51_Killer
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buttplug, NY
Joined: 08.15.2013

Feb 22 @ 1:29 PM ET
I must have my period, because I'm miserable rn af
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 22 @ 1:30 PM ET
He said that back then? Well, none of us are perfect. Incarcerated Bob made a great call when he said the Sabres would get Brad Boyes a few hours before it was announced on deadline day. He is another one of my sources.
- GilPerreault11


Agreed, but his tweet history is mostly vague open ended rumours coupled with throwing poop at the wall to see what sticks.

I usually go with the big 3, Lebrun Friedman McKenzie , this time of year.

Go-to team beat reporters sometimes have an inside scoop as well
GilPerreault11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: IL
Joined: 07.21.2011

Feb 22 @ 1:30 PM ET
He said that back then? Well, none of us are perfect. Incarcerated Bob made a great call when he said the Sabres would get Brad Boyes the night before it was announced on deadline day. He is another one of my sources.
Matthews_Auston
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 04.30.2016

Feb 22 @ 1:32 PM ET
Per Lebrun-

Action definitely picking up on Rangers' Grabner. Cheap cap hit. Teams coming harder at NYR today it seems...

- sbroads24


League leader in empty net goals. Hot commodity.
GilPerreault11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: IL
Joined: 07.21.2011

Feb 22 @ 1:32 PM ET
Agreed, but his tweet history is mostly vague open ended rumours coupled with throwing poop at the wall to see what sticks.

I usually go with the big 3, Lebrun Friedman McKenzie , this time of year.

Go-to team beat reporters sometimes have an inside scoop as well

- Sabresfan-365


Oh yeah, but they don't talk until the deal is sealed very often, you need rumor mongers to this time of year.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Feb 22 @ 1:33 PM ET
I must have my period, because I'm miserable rn af
- 51_Killer

go get some snacks


perhaps a carbonated soda

jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Feb 22 @ 1:36 PM ET
I must have my period, because I'm miserable rn af
- 51_Killer



It's the time of year

Grey
Grey
Greyer
Matthews_Auston
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 04.30.2016

Feb 22 @ 1:36 PM ET
Ek reporting Pens willing to deal Sprong for Kane.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 22 @ 1:39 PM ET
Ek reporting Pens willing to deal Sprong for Kane.
- Matthews_Auston



Flyers and Leafs are discussing a deal that does NOT involve JVR/Schenn, stay tuned
Khmylev
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'll take some olives on my pizza!, NY
Joined: 03.13.2015

Feb 22 @ 1:40 PM ET
[quote=homiedclown]go get some snacks


perhaps a carbonated soda

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