And how many guys get picked around those spots don’t end up being squat?

For example:
Where were Grigorenko & Girgensons picked?
- jdfitz77

You've gotta trust your team to draft well, that's the foundation of building a contender. If you can't do that well....

High school me knew Girgs and grigorenko were bad picks, with all the data available these days, the right draft (like 2015 was) can yield some high end talent all throughout the first round.

Totally disagree
Is Okposo a better shooter than Casey?
Also, Casey can be the LH shot on the RW opposite Jack to draw ppl to that side of the ice
Knock faceoffs all u guys want...
but until Jack or Casey or Sam are winning faceoffs consistently on the PP,
then O’Reilly is not coming off that top unit
- jdfitz77

RoR wins 60%. That extra 10% might mean 1 extra win a night on the PP. That doesn't keep him on my PP over a superior offensive player. Maybe there isn't one yet.

You've gotta trust your team to draft well, that's the foundation of building a contender. If you can't do that well....

High school me knew Girgs and grigorenko were bad picks, with all the data available these days, the right draft (like 2015 was) can yield some high end talent all throughout the first round.
- Sabresfan-365

Sure...
but at the same time u can’t be blinded to the fact that EVERY TEAM has misses,
even in the 1st round
That’s just how it is dude

It’s essentially a toss up at a certain point

Trading good players for that kind of return is just plain dumb imo

if someone offered a 1st, above average prospect and maybe a roster player id take it and run.

Im not even his biggest fan, but I firmly believe Mittelstadt will eat into his ice time both at even strength and PP time and by extension his production.
- Sabresfan-365

Do you think O'Reilly is going to start playing less than 19 minutes a night? As soon as next year?

He's produced virtually the same whether playing 19 or 21 minutes a night. I also hear the less PP time thought often, but he's consistently produced 20 PP points the past few years. Why change that if he's still on the team?

RoR wins 60%. That extra 10% might mean 1 extra win a night on the PP. That doesn't keep him on my PP over a superior offensive player. Maybe there isn't one yet.
- Lunaion

Ok, well...
let’s assume that Casy is a “superior” offensive player to ROR, even though that very far from proven

Okposo certainly isn’t
Even if Okposo bounced back, they’re still in the same ballpark at worst
So RORs faceoffs alone would keep him there over Okposo

Now if we get Svechnikov/Zadina as well...
then at some point we might be seeing ROR bumped from his spot on PP1

But that’s all still tbd
So i certainly don’t think it’s worth speculating NOW about it

Do you think O'Reilly is going to start playing less than 19 minutes a night? As soon as next year?

He's produced virtually the same whether playing 19 or 21 minutes a night. I also hear the less PP time thought often, but he's consistently produced 20 PP points the past few years. Why change that if he's still on the team?
- kingcong39

Bc some ppl just don’t like him & making unfounded comments like that help their narrative that we should move him

Maybe they’re right?
But a lot of assumptions are being made, and we have no clue how this is all gonna play out

Ok, well...
let’s assume that Casy is a “superior” offensive player to ROR, even though that very far from proven

Okposo certainly isn’t
Even if Okposo bounced back, they’re still in the same ballpark at worst
So RORs faceoffs alone would keep him there over Okposo

Now if we get Svechnikov/Zadina as well...
then at some point we might be seeing ROR bumped from his spot on PP1

But that’s all still tbd
So i certainly don’t think it’s worth speculating NOW about it
- jdfitz77

I think it’s obvious Mittelstadt is the superior talent.

Ok, well...
let’s assume that Casy is a “superior” offensive player to ROR, even though that very far from proven

Okposo certainly isn’t
Even if Okposo bounced back, they’re still in the same ballpark at worst
So RORs faceoffs alone would keep him there over Okposo

Now if we get Svechnikov/Zadina as well...
then at some point we might be seeing ROR bumped from his spot on PP1

But that’s all still tbd
So i certainly don’t think it’s worth speculating NOW about it
- jdfitz77

Honestly, projecting where this team is in 2-3 years is more interesting than next season. I think even the most optimistic people can see that next year is a transition year.

My point was that faceoffs alone don't keep him on my PP, not when he might drop off.

Bc some ppl just don’t like him & making unfounded comments like that help their narrative that we should move him

Maybe they’re right?
But a lot of assumptions are being made, and we have no clue how this is all gonna play out
- jdfitz77

O'Reilly is a good but not great player, and I'm all for playing O'Reilly less minutes as it will help him stay fresh and he's shown he can produce the same with less minutes, and I'm all for trading any player if it'll help the team get better, but to accept a return in a trade that is not much more than a cap dump for O'Reilly is going too far IMO.

I think it’s obvious Mittelstadt is the superior talent.
- sbroads24

Even if he is...
Mittelstadt would knock Okposo off PP1,
not O’Reilly
There’s no freaking way you’re gonna try to say Okposo is superior to ROR...
are you?
U can’t possibly be that biased


Also...

Jack-RH
Risto-RH
Sam-RH
Okposo-RH

O’Reilly is the only lefty
That also could play into the decision

Do you think O'Reilly is going to start playing less than 19 minutes a night? As soon as next year?

He's produced virtually the same whether playing 19 or 21 minutes a night. I also hear the less PP time thought often, but he's consistently produced 20 PP points the past few years. Why change that if he's still on the team?
- kingcong39

If CM is as good as I think the organization assumes he will be, O’Reilly will be playing a lot less barring a move to wing.

A guy like Kadri who, while kind of a moron, is still a very good #2 C, plays less than 17 min a night

I think we can all agree O’Reilly isn’t dynamic enough to be the second best forward on your team

Honestly, projecting where this team is in 2-3 years is more interesting than next season. I think even the most optimistic people can see that next year is a transition year.

My point was that faceoffs alone don't keep him on my PP, not when he might drop off.
- Lunaion

For sure... not faceoffs alone
It’s just 1 factor
Without looking,
I’d assume that O’Reilly actually led our team in PP goals this year
So it’s not like the guy isn’t productive in that regard

O'Reilly is a good but not great player, and I'm all for playing O'Reilly less minutes as it will help him stay fresh and he's shown he can produce the same with less minutes, and I'm all for trading any player if it'll help the team get better, but to accept a return in a trade that is not much more than a cap dump for O'Reilly is going too far IMO.
- kingcong39

That all makes sense to me

Even if he is...
Mittelstadt would knock Okposo off PP1,
not O’Reilly
There’s no freaking way you’re gonna try to say Okposo is superior to ROR...
are you?
U can’t possibly be that biased


Also...

Jack-RH
Risto-RH
Sam-RH
Okposo-RH

O’Reilly is the only lefty
That also could play into the decision
- jdfitz77

It’s not about who’s better all the time.

They might want to spread the talent and have O’Reilly lead the #2 unit.

They aren’t going to continue to run him into the ground when there is more talent to go around.

Honestly, projecting where this team is in 2-3 years is more interesting than next season. I think even the most optimistic people can see that next year is a transition year.

My point was that faceoffs alone don't keep him on my PP, not when he might drop off.
- Lunaion

He's been remarkably consistent no matter how many minutes he plays, and especially on the power play. Do you think he's going to drop off as soon as next year? Is it a case of trying being too smart and soothsaying?

I'm asking while being fully on board with trading him assuming the return is commensurate with the kind of player he is.

If CM is as good as I think the organization assumes he will be, O’Reilly will be playing a lot less barring a move to wing.

A guy like Kadri who, while kind of a moron, is still a very good #2 C, plays less than 17 min a night

I think we can all agree O’Reilly isn’t dynamic enough to be the second best forward on your team
- sbroads24

Mittelstadt probably takes the icetime away over a period of time though
O’Reilly will still be on PP1 & the PK,
and take tons of defensive zone faceoffs

I’m sure his icetime will go down a few minutes by the end of the season though
Make sense if Mittelstadt is as good as we think he will be

If CM is as good as I think the organization assumes he will be, O’Reilly will be playing a lot less barring a move to wing.

A guy like Kadri who, while kind of a moron, is still a very good #2 C, plays less than 17 min a night

I think we can all agree O’Reilly isn’t dynamic enough to be the second best forward on your team
- sbroads24

He hasn't played less than 19 minutes a night since..forever, and I sincerely doubt he'll start playing 4 minutes less a night next year.

If the best return is underwhelming, which I consider say a late 1st, a B prospect, and a 2nd, I would keep him.

If the return matches the quality of player he is, of course you listen and probably do the deal.

It’s not about who’s better all the time.

They might want to spread the talent and have O’Reilly lead the #2 unit.

They aren’t going to continue to run him into the ground when there is more talent to go around.
- sbroads24

That’s just speculation though
I’m not going to assume it happens at any particular point in time, or even at all

ROR is pretty productive on our PP
Isn’t he?
It would be weird to take him off if he keeps that up

That’s just speculation though
I’m not going to assume it happens at any particular point in time, or even at all

ROR is pretty productive on our PP
Isn’t he?
It would be weird to take him off if he keeps that up
- jdfitz77

He is, but wouldn’t we want two decent PP units?

In all honesty I don’t even care about his PP production.

We went from #1 to 20th and the production was similar for him

I want him to be an actual threat 5 on 5.

He hasn't played less than 19 minutes a night since..forever, and I sincerely doubt he'll start playing 4 minutes less a night next year.

If the best return is underwhelming, which I consider say a late 1st, a B prospect, and a 2nd, I would keep him.

If the return matches the quality of player he is, of course you listen and probably do the deal.
- kingcong39

He’s also never been a 3rd line center though.

If Mittelstadt is really good, O’Reilly will literally be the 3rd go to man for offense. You don’t think he will be a little less productive then?

He's been remarkably consistent no matter how many minutes he plays, and especially on the power play. Do you think he's going to drop off as soon as next year? Is it a case of trying being too smart and soothsaying?

I'm asking while being fully on board with trading him assuming the return is commensurate with the kind of player he is.
- kingcong39

My opinion on RoR? I think he's a good player and a little over-rated. He's not productive enough 5 on 5. My biggest concern is that I think he's slowed down noticeably over the last few years, and I don't like where that trends 2+ years out. I think his trade value is high right now, and I'd pull the trigger on the right deal.

I've said before that anyone who was invisible for much of the first half of the season, and finished strong is at the top of my trade list. Those are 'sell high' guys in my book.

He hasn't played less than 19 minutes a night since..forever, and I sincerely doubt he'll start playing 4 minutes less a night next year.

If the best return is underwhelming, which I consider say a late 1st, a B prospect, and a 2nd, I would keep him.

If the return matches the quality of player he is, of course you listen and probably do the deal.
- kingcong39

Also, it’s not like we’re saying he needs to be traded.

Him here short term is fine. The question is do you sell high now? Assuming CM is good, do you pay your 3C 7.5 on the cap?

He’s also never been a 3rd line center though.

If Mittelstadt is really good, O’Reilly will literally be the 3rd go to man for offense. You don’t think he will be a little less productive then?
- sbroads24

I don't think he would be because I truly believe he'd move to wing on one of the top 2 lines.

He'd really have to slowdown to be playing 17 minutes a night.

Also, let's say Mittelstadt has the normal learning curve for young players and he's not really good until the end of the 19-20 season. Why not wait until then to trade ROR, unless you think he's hitting a brick wall in terms of production in the next 2 seasons?

Looked it up...

O’Reilly scores almost HALF of our PP goals
15 of 34 (or 31 if u -3 that Kane had)

Zero chance he’s being taken off it any time soon

Reinhart had 12
Pommer 5
Okposo 6
Jack only had 3... wow... had 10 last year
Handful of others with 1

34 pp goals this year,
compared to 54 last year

Obviously, this needs fixing

My opinion on RoR? I think he's a good player and a little over-rated. He's not productive enough 5 on 5. My biggest concern is that I think he's slowed down noticeably over the last few years, and I don't like where that trends 2+ years out. I think his trade value is high right now, and I'd pull the trigger on the right deal.

I've said before that anyone who was invisible for much of the first half of the season, and finished strong is at the top of my trade list. Those are 'sell high' guys in my book.
- Lunaion

Based on your sell high criteria, that means getting rid of virtually everyone then, doesn't it?

If they get strong offers for ROR, of course you probably pull the trigger.