Right. He also didn't give Sam the 7.5 he said. He traded RoR for a 1st line winger, then didn't pay him. Guhle isn't there. Scandella is taking a massive pay cut. There's a lot of problems here.
- Lunaion

I don't even see the first line winger.

I have no issues paying Tavares what he wants, but you can't make it work with this current set up. There'd have to be a lot of secondary changes and team friendly deals.

It also predicts a raise the in the cap (which is probably gonna happen), but it doesn't account for a raise in the minimum salary, or account for inflation. Finding a capable #5 Dman for $1.5 in 4 years will be tough
- jcragcrumple

The "cap will go up" patented fitz argument never made any sense as a logic to affordability. Like why do you think it's going up? the players want to get paid more lol

The drawback is that if any of the ELC guys are remotely good, they'll be moved as soon as they are due any sort of raise. You limit your window to win and how many windows you get.
- Sabresfan-365

How exactly in this case? I think you may be arguing generalities rather thn examining the specific projection put forth. I get that it is hard to read.

MY Five Years Projection incudes several ELC to Long-Term contracts as noted for the studs. Furthermore we all know the pipeline is built to replace guys coming off ELC's unless they are those studs (i.e. MItts, Dahlin, etc.) ...those guys get paid and you re-cycle the bottoms guys...sure, some others get pushed out (maybe Reinhart as a case in point when he comes off a Bridge Deal)...but that is every team.

Of Course it has Cap growth, lol!

since 2005 the Cap has increased by an average of 8% annually--HOWEVER it has slowed over the last 5 years to an Average of 4.8%, after large increases in the early years.

So using an average projected growth of 3.25% is pretty conservative, contrary to your belief. But thank you for proving my point

The Salary's projected are pretty reasonable...I'm sure everyone would disagree at the micro, individual level in a certain year...good, it's a debate. However, the big picture in fact shows it is quite possible.

BTW - I spent 5 Years in FiNanace for a Fortune 250 company projecting Budgets and Sales ...the one's the company depending upon being accurate. It got me promoted to oversee the dept for the next 3 years.
NOT BRAGGIN - nope, but I do LOVE this stuff
- IonSabres

You are missing a ton of stuff though

Where is the player traded for ROR?
Reinhart at $4.5?
No Guhle?


Also at a 3% cap growth (it won't with the lockout coming) you wouldn't get to a 90 million cap hit until the 2024 season

I don't even see the first line winger.

I have no issues paying Tavares what he wants, but you can't make it work with this current set up. There'd have to be a lot of secondary changes and team friendly deals.
- Sabresfan-365

This board would turn on him within 2 years. $12m starting at age 27 when he put up 66 points a year ago sounds like a risky proposition.

He generally gets 10-15 points more than ROR, and we would pay him $4.5 more?

This board would turn on him within 2 years. $12m starting at age 27 when he put up 66 points a year ago sounds like a risky proposition.

He generally gets 10-15 points more than ROR, and we would pay him $4.5 more?
- jcragcrumple

O'Reilly is overpaid

$12 million for Tavares is overpaying but you overpay for someone who is almost a ppg player

Not someone who is a .65 ppg player

O'Reilly is overpaid

$12 million for Tavares is overpaying but you overpay for someone who is almost a ppg player

Not someone who is a .65 ppg player
- Stripes77

The two years before this year, JT was 8-10 points under a point a game both years. Beware the contract year.

How exactly in this case? I think you may be arguing generalities rather thn examining the specific projection put forth. I get that it is hard to read.

MY Five Years Projection incudes several ELC to Long-Term contracts as noted for the studs. Furthermore we all know the pipeline is built to replace guys coming off ELC's unless they are those studs (i.e. MItts, Dahlin, etc.) ...those guys get paid and you re-cycle the bottoms guys...sure, some others get pushed out (maybe Reinhart as a case in point when he comes off a Bridge Deal)...but that is every team.
- IonSabres

It wasn't hard to read.

"Girgs, Larsson, Pommer all replaced with cheaper contracts for sure...ELC's, low risk FA's for 4th line etc."

My point is if those ELC replacements are good, by years 4/5 they'll want the pay to match

If Rodrigues puts up the season he had this year over 82 games, he gets significantly north of 1.5 mil on a four year deal

secondly, a relatively good #5 d-man (so in this case, not an old ass bogosian) will want more than 1.25

Beaulieu, despite sucking, is not taking 700k

If scott wilson is semi useful, he gets more than 750 k

Reinhart may take 4.25 on a bridge, but with the cap going up, he'll want more long term

You are missing a ton of stuff though

Where is the player traded for ROR?
Reinhart at $4.5?
No Guhle?


Also at a 3% cap growth (it won't with the lockout coming) you wouldn't get to a 90 million cap hit until the 2024 season
- Stripes77

I don't see the first line winger either, I just assumed Guhle was the #2 listed at 5.5 million

Of Course it has Cap growth, lol!

since 2005 the Cap has increased by an average of 8% annually--HOWEVER it has slowed over the last 5 years to an Average of 4.8%, after large increases in the early years.

So using an average projected growth of 3.25% is pretty conservative, contrary to your belief. But thank you for proving my point

The Salary's projected are pretty reasonable...I'm sure everyone would disagree at the micro, individual level in a certain year...good, it's a debate. However, the big picture in fact shows it is quite possible.

BTW - I spent 5 Years in FiNanace for a Fortune 250 company projecting Budgets and Sales ...the one's the company depending upon being accurate. It got me promoted to oversee the dept for the next 3 years.
NOT BRAGGIN - nope, but I do LOVE this stuff
- IonSabres

Like others have pointed out, raising the cap is reasonable. Raising the cap but having no inflation to salaries is cheating.

That's some damn fine Excel work, but that roster has the same problem we have now. 6 good players and a ton of scrubs
- jcragcrumple

Maybe, but guys like Pommer Girgs and Larsson, etc are replaced with drafted guys is the premiss.
So Nylander, Pu, Pilut, Asplund, Olofson etc. Hence why the "name/position" is listed and the contract value changes to ac count for lower salaries.

So, if we don't believe that those guys are good enough for 3rd and 4th line duties...that is a Drafting/Scouting Issue...not a cap space projection issue.

Of Course it has Cap growth, lol!

since 2005 the Cap has increased by an average of 8% annually--HOWEVER it has slowed over the last 5 years to an Average of 4.8%, after large increases in the early years.

So using an average projected growth of 3.25% is pretty conservative, contrary to your belief. But thank you for proving my point

The Salary's projected are pretty reasonable...I'm sure everyone would disagree at the micro, individual level in a certain year...good, it's a debate. However, the big picture in fact shows it is quite possible.

BTW - I spent 5 Years in FiNanace for a Fortune 250 company projecting Budgets and Sales ...the one's the company depending upon being accurate. It got me promoted to oversee the dept for the next 3 years.
NOT BRAGGIN - nope, but I do LOVE this stuff
- IonSabres

Why would anyone consider it bragging? it's on a message board. projecting budgets and sales in one area doesn't make you any more qualified to project cap for hockey players.

Maybe, but guys like Pommer Girgs and Larsson, etc are replaced with drafted guys is the premiss.
So Nylander, Pu, Pilut, Asplund, Olofson etc. Hence why the "name/position" is listed and the contract value changes to ac count for lower salaries.

So, if we don't believe that those guys are good enough for 3rd and 4th line duties...that is a Drafting/Scouting Issue...not a cap space projection issue.
- IonSabres

Sorry, I shouldnt be a Debby downer. This site needs more of this deep dive speculative cap work.

Fun stuff. Thanks for sharing it

Like others have pointed out, raising the cap is reasonable. Raising the cap but having no inflation to salaries is cheating.
- Lunaion

Exactly in 5 years a 65 point player will be getting 7-8 million

Especially if the cap is at $90 million

Maybe, but guys like Pommer Girgs and Larsson, etc are replaced with drafted guys is the premiss.
So Nylander, Pu, Pilut, Asplund, Olofson etc. Hence why the "name/position" is listed and the contract value changes to ac count for lower salaries.

So, if we don't believe that those guys are good enough for 3rd and 4th line duties...that is a Drafting/Scouting Issue...not a cap space projection issue.
- IonSabres

The amount of roster spots you're referring to...to be replaced by good ELC candidates would be an unprecedented drafting run. That's not going to happen in a set up where drafting is essentially lottery picks. you'll need to go into FA and trades

Edit: you listed off some of our top prospects there and in reality the odds of even two of them being legit NHLers is still very low.

This board would turn on him within 2 years. $12m starting at age 27 when he put up 66 points a year ago sounds like a risky proposition.

He generally gets 10-15 points more than ROR, and we would pay him $4.5 more?
- jcragcrumple

i don't value powerplay and even strength points equally. It's a well known fact that it is harder to score at 5v5 than 5v4

ROR primary points 5v5: 17

Tavares primary points 5v5: 31

It's not even close for me.

It also predicts a raise the in the cap (which is probably gonna happen), but it doesn't account for a raise in the minimum salary, or account for inflation. Finding a capable #5 Dman for $1.5 in 4 years will be tough
- jcragcrumple

Could be.
However, there is room to account for that.

I did F-up the increase in Reinhart when posting from Excel to this poop site....however in that year they would still have about $10m in Cap Space to absorb some of the increases...there were 2 ELC in that year ... it isn’t going to chew up $10m

I’m sure there are a number of changes required...but to write off JT as unaffordable just isn’t accurate IMO.
What it means is they have to hit on later round picks ... Like Tampa and other teams that find diamonds in the rough to provide some level of cost control

Lastly, it is meant to build a championship caliber team ... and eventually, yes the Cap can’t absorbe every increase as the team ages... we see that in virtually every team

The two years before this year, JT was 8-10 points under a point a game both years. Beware the contract year.
- jcragcrumple

He's a career .91 PPG and great at EV scoring.

Why do you keep pointing to one down year? That's like talking about MacKinnon's down year.

He's been over a PPG in 3 years, and like a point away from a PPG in two others

Imagine having two guys that can score 5 on 5 goals/points like Eichel can?

I also don't think he get's 12 mil

I don't even see the first line winger.

I have no issues paying Tavares what he wants, but you can't make it work with this current set up. There'd have to be a lot of secondary changes and team friendly deals.
- Sabresfan-365

Not so much.
ROR was traded for a #2 Dman as the main piece...pick likely in addition...that pick is in the pipeline...the floats in as one of the “player name/position” entries...I.e. see Girgs, Pommer, Larson, etc.

Imagine having two guys that can score 5 on 5 goals/points like Eichel can?

I also don't think he get's 12 mil
- sbroads24

I think to get him here you would.

He's a career .91 PPG and great at EV scoring.

Why do you keep pointing to one down year? That's like talking about MacKinnon's down year.

He's been over a PPG in 3 years, and like a point away from a PPG in two others
- sbroads24

It was two out of his last three seasons. I think paying a 2nd line center with an uneven track record of scoring $12m a year is a bad idea

Not so much.
ROR was traded for a #2 Dman as the main piece...pick likely in addition...that pick is in the pipeline...the floats in as one of the “player name/position” entries...I.e. see Girgs, Pommer, Larson, etc.
- IonSabres

my opinion, but ROR doesn't bring back a #2 d-man

This was my post from May 1st:

Ah gotcha, I haven't been following the latest with you guys

But the fact remains:

Going into the 2021-2022 season you'll have

Eichel $10 million
ROR $7.5 million (second last year)
Risto $5.4 million (last year)
Mittelstadt on year 2 of a new contract probably around $7 million
Dahlin going into his 1st year of his new contact around $8 million (hopefully if he is playing to potential)
Okposo $6 million (second last year)

$43.9 million on 6 players

That doesn't account whatever Reinhart's next deal is my guess at that time he is around $5.5 million

So almost $50 million tied up to 7 players

With no goalies

Even if the cap is at $90 million

$40 million to spread out to 2 goalies, 5 defensemen, and 9 forwards

16 players so an average of $2.5 million per player

You have to assume your starting goalies is around $6 million by then and his backup $1.5

$7.5 million

$32.5 million to sign 5 defensemen and 9 forwards

Typical 2nd pairing blue liners are making $3-$4 million say so there's another $7 million but if the cap is at $90 million that number is more like $5million-$6 million. Who knows how Guhle projects?

Bottom pairing guys can be guys making $1.5-$2 million but take into cap inflation you're at $2-$3 million per guy

So you're looking at $18 million for your forwards which you have 9 to sign

Okposo is playing on the 3rd line at this point so you need a top 6 winger which is $5 million at least

$13 million for 8 guys. Sure somewhere in your lineup you'll have guys on their ELC to save you so if you have 2 or 3 guys at $1 million each you're at $10 million for 5 guys. $2 million per player to fill out the rest of your lineup.

But you know there will be mistakes made with contracts, what if Dahlin is a Norris Winner he is getting $10 million easily. What if Mittelstadt is a stud like we hope, he is getting $8 million.

You have to remember, if the cap goes up, salaries go up.

The cap will be a huge problem going forward because of guys like Okposo and ROR.

Sbroads is right, the time to move him is now.

Edit: Now take ROR and his $7.5 million out and add Tavares at $12 million, there is an additional $4.5 million

Soft projection you're at $85 million with needing 3 more guys

Then you have to remember Risto's contract will be up, Dahlin could be at a minimum of $10 million and Casey could be at $9 million.

Bringing in a high priced guy like Tavares or in this instance we were talking about Carlson as well (I didn't put him in the original post)

The key thing behind here is moving O'Reilly but even then you are getting something back for him so there's more salary added

The "cap will go up" patented fitz argument never made any sense as a logic to affordability. Like why do you think it's going up? the players want to get paid more lol
- Sabresfan-365

In which year over the past 13 did the Cap not go up...1 during the lockout.

Would you profess to put in decreases when they have been seen in 13 years...with the addition of Seattle coming in as well?