It was two out of his last three seasons. I think paying a 2nd line center with an uneven track record of scoring $12m a year is a bad idea
- jcragcrumple

2015-16 : He had 70 points and 26 EV goals which was tied with Crosby and Seguin for 4th in the NHL. 13th in the league in EV points.

Don't you see how PP points flucuate from year to year and don't give you an accurate representation?

In which year over the past 13 did the Cap not go up...1 during the lockout.

Would you profess to put in decreases when they have been seen in 13 years...with the addition of Seattle coming in as well?
- IonSabres

you clearly didn't read the post. I did not in any way say the cap won't go up. I said the salaries go up with it so the cap increase isn't necessarily the gift it's made out to be.

In which year over the past 13 did the Cap not go up...1 during the lockout.

Would you profess to put in decreases when they have been seen in 13 years...with the addition of Seattle coming in as well?
- IonSabres

You're missing the point

If the cap goes up, players salaries go higher

Back when the cap first started before he walked Briere reportedly wanted $5 million per year.

He was a ppg player.


PPG players now are getting $10 million or close to it.

In 4 years they're going to be getting $12-$14 million if the cap rises to $90 million

You can't adjust for inflation in the cap if you don't adjust for inflation in salaries. This is budget planning 101.

You can't adjust your prices for inflation (cap space) but not expect your expenses to be more (salaries).

You are missing a ton of stuff though

Where is the player traded for ROR?
Reinhart at $4.5?
No Guhle?


Also at a 3% cap growth (it won't with the lockout coming) you wouldn't get to a 90 million cap hit until the 2024 season
- Stripes77

Well, that depends on your perspective, it’s in there, maybe just not the way you would like to see it due to limited space and formatting issue...
You will admit that the names will be fluid over the next couple of years, so
-Guhle, initially he could assume Blow-U’s 7th D Cap hit of $2.4 creating additional space if they can get rid of that slug...then he moves up the roster to take over Scandella’s Line in that $2.0m role...or Bogo’s 5.4 hit when he is dumped or bought out early.
-Reinhart was an error to be sure...I “copied and pasted” his $4.5m hit over to the other columns in that ancient HB post page ( I hate posting columns of numbers here for that exact reason). When corrected, that year has a Cap Space of $10m (at his correct $7.5m hit)
- ROR, his trade partner is the #2Dman at $5.5m. If more is added, I would suspect he would be a pick in 2019 and not show up until about 2021 as an ELC...that is the assumption.
-Cap, the growth is compounded each year, so last years increase drives next years increase higher at the same percentage of 3.25% ... which is about 1.65% lower than over last 5 years..to account for a slow-down in growth.

So, it really isn’t missing much ... mostly anticipated growth in ELC’s as JCrag pointed out (Good catch).

2015-16 : He had 70 points and 26 EV goals which was tied with Crosby and Seguin for 4th in the NHL. 13th in the league in EV points.

Don't you see how PP points flucuate from year to year and don't give you an accurate representation?
- sbroads24

Idk, I've laid out my reasons why I wouldn't do it. Signing a 7 year deal at age 27, his skating could revert back to how it was, especially as he gets older, 2/3 past 3 years he's been 8-10 poins under a PPG. I would wait til next year and try to make a huge move for Kucherov.

I think whoever signs JT will have a boat anchor starting in year 5, especially at $12m. Just one man's opinion

This board would turn on him within 2 years. $12m starting at age 27 when he put up 66 points a year ago sounds like a risky proposition.

He generally gets 10-15 points more than ROR, and we would pay him $4.5 more?
- jcragcrumple

So you’re saying there might be more wiggle room in my projection

You're missing the point

If the cap goes up, players salaries go higher

Back when the cap first started before he walked Briere reportedly wanted $5 million per year.

He was a ppg player.


PPG players now are getting $10 million or close to it.

In 4 years they're going to be getting $12-$14 million if the cap rises to $90 million

You can't adjust for inflation in the cap if you don't adjust for inflation in salaries. This is budget planning 101.

You can't adjust your prices for inflation (cap space) but not expect your expenses to be more (salaries).
- Stripes77

without projecting names and trades, your layout would have to look something like



6 mil-10 mil-4 mil

4 mil-12 mil-3 mil

2 mil-7 mil-2 mil

1 mil-1.5 mil-1 mil


8 mil-4 mil

3 mil- 3mil

2 mil- 2 mil

5 mil
1.5 mil

Thats an 82 mil hit, adjust for inflation of salaries as the cap rises and players are moved out when they need raises

You can tell who the core guys are, the rest you have to hope you've bought low on in some way (low risk, team friendly deals, reclamations etc.)

So you’re saying there might be more wiggle room in my projection
- IonSabres

You're probably spot on with what it would take. I like your Reinhart contract btw

All those cups he won, especially on that stacked Blues team
- IonSabres

It's an awful idea to make a late season trade for a goalie. They need time with the defense, learn their tendencies, communication should be natural, not conscious. He never had a chance. Plus the Blues own luggage of never getting over the hump, kind of like the Caps.

It wasn't hard to read.

"Girgs, Larsson, Pommer all replaced with cheaper contracts for sure...ELC's, low risk FA's for 4th line etc."

My point is if those ELC replacements are good, by years 4/5 they'll want the pay to match

If Rodrigues puts up the season he had this year over 82 games, he gets significantly north of 1.5 mil on a four year deal

secondly, a relatively good #5 d-man (so in this case, not an old ass bogosian) will want more than 1.25

Beaulieu, despite sucking, is not taking 700k

If scott wilson is semi useful, he gets more than 750 k

Reinhart may take 4.25 on a bridge, but with the cap going up, he'll want more long term
- Sabresfan-365[/quote

So here’s the dealio...a couple of points..

We all know there are ways to get creative with the Cap so as to appease a player...I.e. front load contracts to result in a lower “out-year” Cap Hit...so rather than 12 he averages 10 but gets paid say 15 in the first 2 years...then it ramps down...gives the time value of money an opportunity to work in the end

The point of this projection was to point out that it is possible, look at the Cap Space for each year, they can accommodate a fair amount of flux

Historically the Cap Space goes up at about 4.8% per year ... that addition 1.5% annually addS up creating further space...and Seattle comes on line creating more revenue and more space...2018 is expected to go up 6.6% using the midrange of Bettman’s projections.

Specific guys come and go...case in point, who is paying $2.4m for a 7th D (BlowU’s current hit) that $0.7m is meant to represent a replacement. He’s as good as dead after next year at the latest)

I’ve explained Reino error

Wilso’s Hit is $625 currently. Does he get a 20% raise? Maybe, maybe not.

Milan Hejduk is selling his Parker mansion. And it comes with an ice rink and Zamboni.


https://www.denverpost.co...or-sale-ice-rink-zamboni/

Milan Hejduk is selling his Parker mansion. And it comes with an ice rink and Zamboni.


https://www.denverpost.co...or-sale-ice-rink-zamboni/


- jochfr

Just placed a bid.

I think to get him here you would.
- Sabresfan-365

Or you can just give him A massive signing bonus

So here’s the dealio...a couple of points..

We all know there are ways to get creative with the Cap so as to appease a player...I.e. front load contracts to result in a lower “out-year” Cap Hit...so rather than 12 he averages 10 but gets paid say 15 in the first 2 years...then it ramps down...gives the time value of money an opportunity to work in the end

The point of this projection was to point out that it is possible, look at the Cap Space for each year, they can accommodate a fair amount of flux

Historically the Cap Space goes up at about 4.8% per year ... that addition 1.5% annually addS up creating further space...and Seattle comes on line creating more revenue and more space...2018 is expected to go up 6.6% using the midrange of Bettman’s projections.

Specific guys come and go...case in point, who is paying $2.4m for a 7th D (BlowU’s current hit) that $0.7m is meant to represent a replacement. He’s as good as dead after next year at the latest)

I’ve explained Reino error

Wilso’s Hit is $625 currently. Does he get a 20% raise? Maybe, maybe not.
- IonSabres

As i've said already, the cap going up also means an increase in AAV across the board.

Front loading contracts isn't nearly the advantage it used to be, with the lowest salary year not allowed to be less than 50% of the highest. Its very likely that gets a further look in the next lockout.

I think adding Tavares can work, but it would mean big changes, not small ones.

Or you can just give him A massive signing bonus
- gerbe75pts

Then the cap hit remains, but his last 2-3 seasons he's playing for $3 million in real money vs. $17m in the first 2 years. It doesn't solve the fundamental problem of paying him too much

Can we sign John Tavares and
kovalchuk?

Can we sign John Tavares and
kovalchuk?


- gerbe75pts

Kovalchuk is easy, he gets a 2 year deal

It's the long term ones that get hairy

I see. Excel must be wrong then.
Player 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Eichel $10.000 $10.000 $10.000 $10.000 $10.000
Mittelstadt $0.925 $0.925 $7.500 $7.500 $7.500
Baptiste/\ELC$0.725 $0.925 $0.925 $0.925 $0.925
Tavares $12.000 $12.000 $12.000 $12.000 $12.000
Okposo $6.000 $6.000 $6.000 $6.000 $6.000
Reinhart $4.250 $4.250 $4.250 $4.250 $4.250
Erod/3C $0.650 $1.500 $1.500 $1.500 $1.500
Pomer/3RW $5.600 $1.650 $1.650 $1.650 $1.650
Girgs/3LW $1.600 $1.750 $1.750 $1.750 $1.750
Larsson/4C $1.450 $0.925 $0.925 $0.925 $0.925
Bailey/4RW $0.750 $0.750 $0.750 $0.750 $0.750
Wilson/4LW $0.750 $0.750 $0.750 $0.750 $0.750
13th F $0.625 $0.625 $0.625 $0.625 $0.625
Dahlin $0.925 $0.925 $0.925 $10.000 $10.000
#2 D $5.500 $5.500 $5.500 $5.500 $5.500
Scand/#3 $4.000 $4.000 $2.000 $2.000 $2.000
Risto $5.400 $5.400 $5.400 $5.400 $5.400
McCabe $1.600 $2.000 $2.000 $2.000 $2.000
Bogo/#5D $5.142 $5.142 $1.250 $1.250 $1.250
Beaul/ 7D $2.400 $0.700 $0.700 $0.700 $0.700
Ullmark $0.925 $0.925 $4.000 $4.000 $4.000
B-up Goali $1.500 $1.500 $1.500 $1.500 $1.500 e
Moulson $5.000
Total $77.717 $68.142 $71.900 $80.975 $80.975
Salary Cap $80.000 $82.600 $85.285 $88.056 $90.918
Cap Space $2.283 $14.458 $13.385 $7.081 $9.943
- IonSabres

This is wildly optimistic. With those salaries that team is going nowhere fast, you have 6 4th liners and 3 bottom pair defensemen.

You're missing the point

If the cap goes up, players salaries go higher

Back when the cap first started before he walked Briere reportedly wanted $5 million per year.

He was a ppg player.


PPG players now are getting $10 million or close to it.

In 4 years they're going to be getting $12-$14 million if the cap rises to $90 million

You can't adjust for inflation in the cap if you don't adjust for inflation in salaries. This is budget planning 101.

You can't adjust your prices for inflation (cap space) but not expect your expenses to be more (salaries).
- Stripes77

Good point, as originally ID’d by JCrag.
One thing to consider ... while individual Salaries can run away as you point out above, the team Salary Cap is just that...it’s a hard Cap...
So overall, collectively team salaries cannot exceed the Salary Cap...so there is no risk overall of exceeding the Cap ... the money players are going to get paid...the slugs will take a hit to make up for it...it has to...Common Core says so, lol!
Yes, there may have to be sac Rice’s in specific players on the roster...like every successful team has had to do, coupled with home-town discounts by the big guys.

But to appease everyone if I uplift the total of the salaries by the same rate of the Salary Cap

Year projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Salary “as is”. $77.7 $68.1 $75.2 $84.2 $84.2
Salary uplift. $ 2.5 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.7
Total Salary. $80.2 $70.4 $77.6 $86.9 $86.9
Proj Cap. $80.0 $82.6 $85.3 $88.1 $90.9
Space Avail. -$ o.2 $12.2 $7.7 $1.1. $ 4.0


Ok I’m done.
Point s it’s doable...no one has a crystal ball down to the nat’s ass.

Kovalchuk is easy, he gets a 2 year deal

It's the long term ones that get hairy
- Stripes77

Man if we landed both I might think the world was ending

Man if we landed both I might think the world was ending
- gerbe75pts

Still terrible

This is wildly optimistic. With those salaries that team is going nowhere fast, you have 6 4th liners and 3 bottom pair defensemen.
- Wetbandit1

Forget the specific names for those we already know aren’t a part of the team going forward like Pommer, Girgs, Larson, Bogo, etc...
Their contracts are included until their contract runs out...then are replaced with lower cost players such as Asplund, Pu, Pilut, Bustlander, ...the pipeline which is generally on an ELC.
The point was squeezing Johnny T in is doable when you sit down and do the math
Yes, there will be some replacements.

Idk, I've laid out my reasons why I wouldn't do it. Signing a 7 year deal at age 27, his skating could revert back to how it was, especially as he gets older, 2/3 past 3 years he's been 8-10 poins under a PPG. I would wait til next year and try to make a huge move for Kucherov.

I think whoever signs JT will have a boat anchor starting in year 5, especially at $12m. Just one man's opinion
- jcragcrumple

I don’t disagree that it might be a bad idea to sign him, but the production is the least of the concerns.

It just boils down to whether you can have more than 2 extremely high salaries and compete for a cup, and I think Eichel and Dahlin are the two you absolutely will be paying.

However, if JT would sign, I would be moving players for picks left and right to stock the cupboards with cheap role players on rookie deals.

Still terrible
- jochfr

Not terrible, just not world beaters

Kovi Eichel Reinhart
ROR Tavares Okposo
Bailey Mittelstadt Baptiste
Wilson Erod Girgensons

Dahlin Guhle
Risto Scandella
Nelson McCabe


Ullmark
??

That's a playoff team IMO.

I don't think its affordable though cause you're looking at adding $19 million in salary with Tavares and Kovi

ROR would absolutely have to get dealt and have to get someone cheap to replace him.

I don’t disagree that it might be a bad idea to sign him, but the production is the least of the concerns.

It just boils down to whether you can have more than 2 extremely high salaries and compete for a cup, and I think Eichel and Dahlin are the two you absolutely will be paying.

However, if JT would sign, I would be moving players for picks left and right to stock the cupboards with cheap role players on rookie deals.
- sbroads24

I agree with you there.

If we move the 2 contracts that are most often brought up, ROR and Okposo, then you could fit it.

But those two produced 105 points last year for $13.5 (on a bad year for Okposo), and you'd be spending $12m for between 66-85 points for JT.

I just don't see how any of it makes sense