Bob Duff: Epic D-sasters The Detroit Red Wings must take a defenseman with the sixth pick of the 2018 NHL entry draft, but their history of drafting rearguards in the first round makes this a scary proposition.

Hughes or Bouchard. One or both will be there at 6.

Dobson, Hughes or Bouchard. Personally i prefer Dobson. Better all around player with size and mobility but i won't be mad if they draft one of the other two.

Kind of hoping K'Andre Miller is still there for the 31st or early 2nd round picks...that would be pretty sweet and a good step in the right direction into rebuilding the worst defense in the NHL.

It is so tough to get defensemen right. It may be the toughest as far as “potential” and has a lot to do with the work and development for those first 3 years. I would feel good about Dobson, Bouchard or Hughes. But, again, you can’t tell. It feels like we really need to invest our 2nd and 3rd round into Dmen and goalies. Still not how are current pool is going to pan out. Sulak and cholowski are both very interesting

You'll get a real good D at 6. Then you'll still have another 1st. 2 2nds. 3 3rds. Sheesh. Canucks fans can only dream of having that many picks.

I like Rasmus Sandin. Wonder when he'll get taken.. Cant wait til Friday.

Draft position of the 15 highest scoring forwards (total points) overall of the past 10 years:

1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 19, 3, 11, 22, 5, 1, 1, 2, 28, 2.

(For anyone curious, that's Crosby, Ovechkin, Kane, Malkin, Backstrom, Getzlaf, H. Sedin, Kopitar, Giroux, Kessel, Thornton, Stamkos, D. Sedin, Perry, and E. Staal.)

Draft position of the 15 highest scoring defensemen (total points) overall of the past 10 years:

15, 54, 105, 49, 20, 2, 7, 245, 62, 29, 43, 2, undrafted, 56, 4

(Karlsson, Keith, Yandle, Weber, Burns, Doughty, Suter, Byfuglien, Letang, Green, Subban, Hedman, Giordano, Chara, Pietrangelo)

The point of that, by the way, is not to say that we shouldn't take a defenseman at No. 6. Just that projecting defensemen is really really hard compared to projecting forwards.

But it's also really really hard to acquire a good one in any other way but the draft.

Honestly given team needs and how much uncertainty there is about projecting defenders generally, I would not be at all mad if they selected nothing but defenders with all seven of their picks in the first three rounds. They need as many shots at the jackpot as they can take.

Agree. So tough to rank those three D (plus you could throw in Boqvist). Looking at countless mocks, the order for these guys is different almost every time. No one knows.

Just to play devils advocate, what if the order goes Dahlin, Svechnikov, kotkaniemi, Zadina, Hughes/Dobson and Tkachuk is available. OR Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Hughes/Dobson and Zadina is available. Still go with a defenceman at 6?

It is so tough to get defensemen right. It may be the toughest as far as “potential” and has a lot to do with the work and development for those first 3 years. I would feel good about Dobson, Bouchard or Hughes. But, again, you can’t tell. It feels like we really need to invest our 2nd and 3rd round into Dmen and goalies. Still not how are current pool is going to pan out. Sulak and cholowski are both very interesting
- Jlaura76

Wahlstrom or Hughes at 6 (unless Zadina slides)

3 of (Sandin, Merkley, Kaut, Bokk, Ylonen, Berggren, Kravtsov, Kupari, Denisenko) at 30,33, and 36

Agree. So tough to rank those three D (plus you could throw in Boqvist). Looking at countless mocks, the order for these guys is different almost every time. No one knows.

Just to play devils advocate, what if the order goes Dahlin, Svechnikov, kotkaniemi, Zadina, Hughes/Dobson and Tkachuk is available. OR Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Hughes/Dobson and Zadina is available. Still go with a defenceman at 6?
- wingfanto

If Zadina slides absolutely take him.

If Tkachuk is there absolutely pass. His numbers suggest mid to late 1st but he has the name and a good WJC riding Middlestadts coattails.

If Zadina slides absolutely take him.

If Tkachuk is there absolutely pass. His numbers suggest mid to late 1st but he has the name and a good WJC riding Middlestadts coattails.
- Feds91Stammer

Agree. I highly doubt Zadina slides though. Probably the only way to get him is if Bergevin is stupid enough to trade the No. 3.

I mean, Bergevin is extremely stupid, so never say never. But it's probably not happening.

Agree. I highly doubt Zadina slides though. Probably the only way to get him is if Bergevin is stupid enough to trade the No. 3.

I mean, Bergevin is extremely stupid, so never say never. But it's probably not happening.
- Sven22

Ouellet speaks French. Let's make it happen.

Ouellet speaks French. Let's make it happen.
- Feds91Stammer

We'll even throw in Dominic Turgeon!

We'll even throw in Dominic Turgeon!
- Sven22

They need defense and a center. It's a no brainer for MTL.

Ok so let's play this out. Say MTL calls and offers #3 (Zadina) for #6 and #33 OR #36. Do you do it or hold tight and take one of the top Dmen? Makes sense for MTL because they can likely still get the top C and add a high 2nd rounder. DET desperately needs D but this might be tempting.

Agree. I highly doubt Zadina slides though. Probably the only way to get him is if Bergevin is stupid enough to trade the No. 3.

I mean, Bergevin is extremely stupid, so never say never. But it's probably not happening.
- Sven22

Ok so let's play this out. Say MTL calls and offers #3 (Zadina) for #6 and #33 OR #36. Do you do it or hold tight and take one of the top Dmen? Makes sense for MTL because they can likely still get the top C and add a high 2nd rounder. DET desperately needs D but this might be tempting.
- wingfanto

Moving to 3 should cost much more than 33 or 36.

I would definitely do 6, and 2 of 30/33/36 for 3.

Wahlstrom or Hughes at 6 (unless Zadina slides)

3 of (Sandin, Merkley, Kaut, Bokk, Ylonen, Berggren, Kravtsov, Kupari, Denisenko) at 30,33, and 36
- Feds91Stammer

Detroit will take Boqvist, Noel, Wilde and Addison and like it.

Detroit will take Boqvist, Noel, Wilde and Addison and like it.
- Glak18

- Feds91Stammer

Athanasiou and 36 for Gudas and 50...take it!

Moving to 3 should cost much more than 33 or 36.

I would definitely do 6, and 2 of 30/33/36 for 3.
- Feds91Stammer

Agree, and I'll elaborate.

So it's not that scientific, granted, but I'm too lazy to conduct my own study. A while back TSN's Scott Cullen did a semi-subjective estimation of draft pick value based on 23 years of picks (1990-2013).

According to his rough guide (with my on-the-fly eyeball adjustments in an attempt to smooth the sample size issues into a reasonable curve):

- The No. 3 pick has roughly an 80% chance to produce a solid top six forward or top four defender

- The No. 6 pick is roughly 55%

- Picks 30-40 are around 10% each

If we find those numbers broadly acceptable, it suggests that while No. 3 is 80% likely to produce an above-average NHLer or better, No. 6, 30, 33 combined is only about 65% likely to produce at least one above-average NHL player (albeit with a ~5% chance of getting two and ~1/200 chance of getting three).

And that's still only setting your threshold at "top six forward / top four defender." At No. 3 you are presumably even more relatively likely to get at least one genuinely elite player than you would picking 6/30/33.

Now, obviously it's not a guarantee and things like team needs and one's subjective evaluation of the depth of talent in a draft make a difference. But purely in a vacuum and on balance of probability 3 seems like it would be a better spot than 6+30+33 most years.

Athanasiou and 36 for 19...take it!
- Glak18

fixed

Why did you guys not put in a qualifying offer on FRK???? The kid played great for just 9 minutes a game. These young guys are your only hope and he wouldn't cost much. Hopefully my team scoops him up on the 1st.

fixed
- Feds91Stammer

I like it.

Why did you guys not put in a qualifying offer on FRK???? The kid played great for just 9 minutes a game. These young guys are your only hope and he wouldn't cost much. Hopefully my team scoops him up on the 1st.
- bikeguy99

Holland and prospects don’t go well together. Duh.

Why did you guys not put in a qualifying offer on FRK???? The kid played great for just 9 minutes a game. These young guys are your only hope and he wouldn't cost much. Hopefully my team scoops him up on the 1st.
- bikeguy99

Holland is an idiot.

Thought I saw DAL might scoop him up.