Rumor mills were flirting with the idea of Brass for Myers+ fwiw
- WSCTeton17

If Myers has some years left on his current deal I'd be all for it. Winnipeg would have to add.

If Myers has some years left on his current deal I'd be all for it. Winnipeg would have to add.
- Barnaby36

LOL WUT

Brassard for Myers is a fair deal.

Brass for Skinner would make sense for both teams... JR has hinted at making a hockey trade. This would be the foundation because I think we would need to off load a salary like Hags too.
- hipcheck_goalie

I would think that since they’re both rentals that CAR would eat the difference in salary so that it works for both sides

I would think that since they’re both rentals that CAR would eat the difference in salary so that it works for both sides
- WSCTeton17

CAR is a budget team and already above the cap floor. They would not retain salary just to appease PIT.

LOL WUT

Brassard for Myers is a fair deal.
- Feds91Stammer

I actually with the other guy agree that WPG would have to add a bit, but not much at all

This was extremely non specific but I’ll assume you’re referring to James Neal who already has proven chemistry with Malkin (40 goal season) and is a lock for 20+ regardless. I’m not saying he’s Patrick Marleau, but when you’re sure about a guy who can perform you have to get yourself comfortable with him performing at an older age. Calgary is comfortable with it, Vegas offered an extension, maybe we had a lower offer idk. We were all laughing at that Oshie extension, myself included especially since I can’t stand his excessive late/high hits (like how Ovie hits at times)- but there is a chance that he maybe lives up to that contract.. but I doubt it
- WSCTeton17

Was referring to Brassard, Patches, Neal....etc. Giving players their final deal and paying max rate for it.

So you're not ok with TJ Oshie's play but ok with Neal's?

I actually with the other guy agree that WPG would have to add a bit, but not much at all
- WSCTeton17

Well then that settles it I guess.

I actually with the other guy agree that WPG would have to add a bit, but not much at all
- WSCTeton17

Its rental for rental. Both mid tier players.

You want WPG to throw in a 5th?

Was referring to Brassard, Patches, Neal....etc. Giving players their final deal and paying max rate for it.

So you're not ok with TJ Oshie's play but ok with Neal's?
- sammy87

1) I said it’s unlikely Brass signs with Pitt 2) I didn’t even mention Patches 3) I don’t think this will be Neal’s final contract 4) I didn’t say Oshie wasn’t worth that money now, I believe I said it’s unlikely he lives up to the contract which is a forward thinking statement - I didn’t in anyway compare Neal to Oshie for their play last season 5) I legit can’t tell if I’m being trolled or not with how dumb your response was

CAR is a budget team and already above the cap floor. They would not retain salary just to appease PIT.
- Feds91Stammer

I didn’t say to appease Pitt, I said to make the money work which (assuming we sign BigRig or another D) we would need them to eat some cap on Skinner which they would be compensated for - that seems pretty standard to me seeing as how cap space is valuable

Its rental for rental. Both mid tier players.

You want WPG to throw in a 5th?
- Feds91Stammer

It’s also 3M vs 5.5M. You don’t think that has any bearing on a potential trade?

I wonder how things would’ve turned out if we had just done a similar trade for Skinner instead of Brassard. Or what if we just kept Cole and never made a trade. I really liked how Sheahan was playing prior to the Brassard acquisition. Oh my god.. what if we traded a 4th for JJ at last deadline, realized what we had done, AND THEN THE 5 YEAR EXTENSION NEVER HAPPENS *gasp*

It’s also 3M vs 5.5M. You don’t think that has any bearing on a potential trade?
- WSCTeton17

Skinner is also >> Brassard

2017/18 WAR/82 per Corsica

Skinner: 2.06

Brassard: 0.48

Skinner is also >> Brassard

2017/18 WAR/82 per Corsica

Skinner: 2.06

Brassard: 0.48
- Feds91Stammer

How is WAR calculated?

How is WAR calculated?
- jmatchett383

Wimpy Analytic Ratings are based on a proprietary spreadsheet regression analysis of a players corsi.

How is WAR calculated?
- jmatchett383

http://www.corsica.hockey...017/05/20/the-art-of-war/

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2017/05/20/the-art-of-war/
- Feds91Stammer

Yes, I've read that. But when the guy says things like " ß is a vector of coefficients," then it doesn't really show me how that equation is calculated. Who determined the weight of those coefficients and why? Who came up with the exact value of a "replacement level player? Why did the person choose that specific formula to calculate the player's WAR? Much like the "QB rating," I want to know the specifics of why people chose seemingly randomly weighted coefficients and why the formula was derived the way it was.

I'm not ever going to discount analytics. At this point, doing so if being willfully ignorant. And if ratings exist out there that show that top players (McDavid et. al.) are at the top an low players (Dale Weise et. al.) are at the bottom, then there obviously is some weight to them.

What I question is the magnitude of the difference. By changing some of the coefficients used, or slightly altering the formula, you could change a difference in Player A to Player B. For example, if Player A has a 2.0 rating and Player B has a 1.0 rating, you could change the weight of the coefficients or any portion of the formula (numerical values, operators, adding or subtracting variables, etc.) and change the value of that difference.

I'll freely admit that I have not delved into the math myself. My suspicion is that, while the reasons are mostly sound, confirmation bias probably played a small role is how the formulas were derived. For example; the person deriving the formula thinks that Player A should be better than Player B, but his formula shows otherwise. However, a slight alteration changes that, and the person then concludes that the old formula was flawed and that the new one was right.

TLDR.

Yes, I've read that. But when the guy says things like " ß is a vector of coefficients," then it doesn't really show me how that equation is calculated. Who determined the weight of those coefficients and why? Who came up with the exact value of a "replacement level player? Why did the person choose that specific formula to calculate the player's WAR? Much like the "QB rating," I want to know the specifics of why people chose seemingly randomly weighted coefficients and why the formula was derived the way it was.

I'm not ever going to discount analytics. At this point, doing so if being willfully ignorant. And if ratings exist out there that show that top players (McDavid et. al.) are at the top an low players (Dale Weise et. al.) are at the bottom, then there obviously is some weight to them.

What I question is the magnitude of the difference. By changing some of the coefficients used, or slightly altering the formula, you could change a difference in Player A to Player B. For example, if Player A has a 2.0 rating and Player B has a 1.0 rating, you could change the weight of the coefficients or any portion of the formula (numerical values, operators, adding or subtracting variables, etc.) and change the value of that difference.

I'll freely admit that I have not delved into the math myself. My suspicion is that, while the reasons are mostly sound, confirmation bias probably played a small role is how the formulas were derived. For example; the person deriving the formula thinks that Player A should be better than Player B, but his formula shows otherwise. However, a slight alteration changes that, and the person then concludes that the old formula was flawed and that the new one was right.

TLDR.
- jmatchett383

I get what you are saying.

Here are the top 10 WAR/60 skaters from 17/18

1 CONNOR.MCDAVID
2 ALEX.OVECHKIN
3 AUSTON.MATTHEWS
4 LOGAN.COUTURE
5 WILLIAM.KARLSSON
6 BROCK.BOESER
7 NATHAN.MACKINNON
8 CLAUDE.GIROUX
9 NIKITA.KUCHEROV
10 BRENDAN.GALLAGHER

I get what you are saying.

Here are the top 10 WAR/60 skaters from 17/18

1 CONNOR.MCDAVID
2 ALEX.OVECHKIN
3 AUSTON.MATTHEWS
4 LOGAN.COUTURE
5 WILLIAM.KARLSSON
6 BROCK.BOESER
7 NATHAN.MACKINNON
8 CLAUDE.GIROUX
9 NIKITA.KUCHEROV
10 BRENDAN.GALLAGHER
- Feds91Stammer

And like I said, the formula is obviously a good indicator of "good" and "bad" players. I'm sure there are outliers in there. My true question is the magnitude of separation, both from 1-10 and from 20-300.

Just by watching 20 seconds of a game, I can tell you that Connor McDavid is better than Dale Weise. It's apparent. I just can't say whether the way that the difference is calculated and presented is correct or not because I have not been presented with (and don't have the time to review) the reasoning behind the coefficients, metrics, and formula derivation.

I think JMFJ is a prime example. He's an "offensively minded" defenseman who's not very good at producing offense and is bad in his own zone. The league is littered with similar players and I think the length of his contract was a poor move by the Penguins. But what is a "replacement level" player? I think I would label TJ Brennan as a "replacement level" player, and I can say for a fact that JMFJ is light years better than him.

So again, it's the magnitude of difference that I question more than the rankings. Is Jeff Skinner better than Brassard? I think so, and the data backs that up apparently. But is the gap between the two as large or as small as the analytics make it out to be? I'm not so sure.

And like I said, the formula is obviously a good indicator of "good" and "bad" players. I'm sure there are outliers in there. My true question is the magnitude of separation, both from 1-10 and from 20-300.

Just by watching 20 seconds of a game, I can tell you that Connor McDavid is better than Dale Weise. It's apparent. I just can't say whether the way that the difference is calculated and presented is correct or not because I have not been presented with (and don't have the time to review) the reasoning behind the coefficients, metrics, and formula derivation.

I think JMFJ is a prime example. He's an "offensively minded" defenseman who's not very good at producing offense and is bad in his own zone. The league is littered with similar players and I think the length of his contract was a poor move by the Penguins. But what is a "replacement level" player? I think I would label TJ Brennan as a "replacement level" player, and I can say for a fact that JMFJ is light years better than him.

So again, it's the magnitude of difference that I question more than the rankings. Is Jeff Skinner better than Brassard? I think so, and the data backs that up apparently. But is the gap between the two as large or as small as the analytics make it out to be? I'm not so sure.
- jmatchett383

I probably should have posted WAR/60 for Skinner and Brassard which is a bit less drastic of a difference.

Skinner: 0.09
Brassard: 0.02

The biggest difference I see from looking quickly is the WAR related to penalty differential which I actually think is overvalued a bit by WAR.

LOL WUT

Brassard for Myers is a fair deal.
- Feds91Stammer

Why the laugh? Wait I know: desperation because your team sucks

I only said Winnipeg would have to add and that's about it. Never mentioned a pick or whatever.

Skinner is also >> Brassard

2017/18 WAR/82 per Corsica

Skinner: 2.06

Brassard: 0.48
- Feds91Stammer

My 3M vs 5.5M comment was pertaining to Myers vs Brass. So I still feel at those price tags that WPG wouldve needed to add something or retain money on Myers. I’m not saying we should trade for Myers either - just disagreeing that at those cap hits that their value would be equal especially considering the lack of centers on the market

How is WAR calculated?
- jmatchett383

This conversation is just boring and you might agree with me.

My 3M vs 5.5M comment was pertaining to Myers vs Brass. So I still feel at those price tags that WPG wouldve needed to add something or retain money on Myers. I’m not saying we should trade for Myers either - just disagreeing that at those cap hits that their value would be equal especially considering the lack of centers on the market
- WSCTeton17

He won't make any comments when he knows he screwed up. Very valid point.

My 3M vs 5.5M comment was pertaining to Myers vs Brass. So I still feel at those price tags that WPG wouldve needed to add something or retain money on Myers. I’m not saying we should trade for Myers either - just disagreeing that at those cap hits that their value would be equal especially considering the lack of centers on the market
- WSCTeton17

Not sure how it would work out or if it would make sense but I have wondered about something based around Brassard & Oleksiak or Maata for Myers & Perrault.

If it's Brassard & Oleksiak, they would need the Jets to retain half of Myers cap hit this year and I don't think that is enough value coming back for them to do it. Pens would likely have to add.

Brassard & Maata... not sure I love it. I like Myers and he would be a nice addition to the right side if they can extend him. Perrault's game would fit in great with the Pens but he gets injured a lot. Jets would likely have to add.