Derek Jedamski
@D_Jedamski
Per @ShutdownLine, Sabres were the second worst neutral zone team last year (and lowest carry in %, I think). #RITSAC

O’Reilly struggled greatly with carry in’s.

I think this will be addition by subtraction offensively
- sbroads24

Maybe in that respect
But are u gonna blame another TEAM STAT
on him & no one else?

And we still gotta score once we do get the puck into the zone

Actually you didn’t, you had 0 clue what the stats used were for those rankings.

I think he’s over rated because he sucks at EV scoring. Like 3rd line level. That’s my reasoning. That and watching him do almost nothing offensively for 3 years at 5 on 5
- sbroads24

Well that’s ONE stat

OVERALL...
the overwhelming majority in the Analytics community greatly disagree with you on O’Reilly

And so do the coaches/GMs

And analysts

And even his own peers


But keep talking smack
There’s a handful on here who will agree with you
So congrats on that

Derek Jedamski
@D_Jedamski
Per @ShutdownLine, Sabres were the second worst neutral zone team last year (and lowest carry in %, I think). #RITSAC

O’Reilly struggled greatly with carry in’s.

I think this will be addition by subtraction offensively
- sbroads24

Why would you change the subject?

Mitts seams to have that quality, same with guhle and dahlin

40 games is a pretty big sample for a guy with only 3 years in the league, that's 1/6th of his career so far. Maybe he's just figuring things out rather than it being an anomaly. Those other 200 games are at the beginning of his career and they weren't a disaster. 40 games of productivity after 700 or 800 career games would be more of an anomaly.

Maybe in that respect
But are u gonna blame another TEAM STAT
on him & no one else?

And we still gotta score once we do get the puck into the zone
- jdfitz77

365 has posted a chart several times that showed O’Reilly was awful with zone entries. It was one of his weak points. Jordan Nolan was better during the sample that was tracked

40 games is a pretty big sample for a guy with only 3 years in the league, that's 1/6th of his career so far. Maybe he's just figuring things out rather than it being an anomaly. Those other 200 games are at the beginning of his career and they weren't a disaster. 40 games of productivity after 700 or 800 career games would be more of an anomaly.
- DonLuce20

So the prior 1/6 of Sam's career doesn't bother you?

16 games without a point ,just last year??

Edit* 6.4% of his career without a point?

365 has posted a chart several times that showed O’Reilly was awful with zone entries. It was one of his weak points. Jordan Nolan was better during the sample that was tracked
- sbroads24

I don’t disagree
Just saying it wasn’t only him

And just bc “player x” isn’t good carrying the puck in,
doesn’t mean u can’t play a guy or 2 on his line that is better at it

Just about every player in the league has a flaw somewhere in their game

so why can't nylander score 25 goals with the great leafs


but reinhart can on a pathetic team



and you are the last person on this site to tell anyone to stop anything



- homiedclown

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

I don’t disagree
Just saying it wasn’t only him

And just bc “player x” isn’t good carrying the puck in,
doesn’t mean u can’t play a guy or 2 on his line that is better at it

Just about every player in the league has a flaw somewhere in their game
- jdfitz77

Right, I’m saying I think we will be better on offense without him in a lot of ways.

I think he’s a good player, but if he’s playing 20 min a night in a key role I don’t think you’re a great offensive team unless you have a lot around him

So the prior 1/6 of Sam's career doesn't bother you?

16 games without a point ,just last year??
- Boss34

No it doesn't. As I mentioned in my post, prior to his 40 game stretch we are looking at the first 200 games of a young players career. If he was never inconsistent and never slumped, he would be an elite player or superstar. Nobody thought he was Crosby when we drafted him. Why is it so hard to see that he's likely making that jump we all hoped he would?

Not to compare the two skill wise, but isn't there also a bit a good faith attached to Eichel's new contract that was signed before last season; before we knew he'd repeat the productivity of the year before?

16 game pointless streak

How many games did that win for the Sabres?

Seriously are you his agent or family?
- Boss34

Even Crosby has scoreless streaks
Come on dude...

Right, I’m saying I think we will be better on offense without him in a lot of ways.

I think he’s a good player, but if he’s playing 20 min a night in a key role I don’t think you’re a great offensive team unless you have a lot around him
- sbroads24

And without him,
we will need even more

Also,
No one ever said O’Reilly was an elite offensive player

You wanna sign Skinner right?
He’s gonna command ROR-like $$$

O’Reilly at offense >>> Skinner at defense

Very few perfect players in the league
Everyone has flaws

So the prior 1/6 of Sam's career doesn't bother you?

16 games without a point ,just last year??

Edit* 6.4% of his career without a point?
- Boss34

I think Sam is what has been stated by a few...he is a complimentary player not core.
The disappointing thing was the hype that surronded him pre -draft and the media positioning him as a potential #1 C.

That hype included a rather strong WJ20 tournament, especiallgg the final minuteof the Championship game where he showed great fortitude by being "the guy" who they couldnt take off the ice at that crutial point in the game. It continued with a rather strong showing to close out his Junior season by producing consistent multiple point games.

The disappointment started his very first stint in the NHL those initial 9 or 10 games where he looked completely lost, small, weak and slow...then got sent back down. That caused the majority of fans to look at him like

He is slowly improving his game as evidenced by his points and goals for each season (stepped back for G's in year 2 though).
However, it is alarming to me that he was Dr Jeckle and Mr Hyde in his contract year. It wasnt 3 coaches, it wasnt playing center (he played more games with Jack and ROR but produced just as woofully as when at C) ... it was "something"...whether it was substance abuse or a wakeup call from his Agent or both...dont know and dont care really.
Except, how do the sabres KNOW that issue is firmly in the past...they don't.
1 or 2 years at $4.75 prove it deal. THEN, pay the man accordingly.

We need To have a positive energy circle and release stress

Also with respect to Sam.
That WJ20 performance caused me to believe he could be a solid ROR-type player...defensively sound, reliable, able to contribute on the scoresheet. I still do.

Ryan stinson has written a. Umber if articles that has included various analytics that point to Sam being a positive posession player who does make others performance on ice improve, recently suggesting he should be positioned back to Center. Personally I'd like to see them try it as
ERod - Samson - Baptiste on the 3rd line.
He can always go back to RW iif it doesnt work again.

Sheary Eichel Oposo
Skinner Stats Olofsson
ERod Sam Baptiste
Berglund Sobotka Pommer
Wilson

No it doesn't. As I mentioned in my post, prior to his 40 game stretch we are looking at the first 200 games of a young players career. If he was never inconsistent and never slumped, he would be an elite player or superstar. Nobody thought he was Crosby when we drafted him. Why is it so hard to see that he's likely making that jump we all hoped he would?

Not to compare the two skill wise, but isn't there also a bit a good faith attached to Eichel's new contract that was signed before last season; before we knew he'd repeat the productivity of the year before?
- DonLuce20

Good post

I do think eichel is in a different category.

Eichel got it all
Speed
Compete
Goals
Assists
Excitement
Cluchness
Passion
Leadership

I think Sam is what has been stated by a few...he is a complimentary player not core.
The disappointing thing was the hype that surronded him pre -draft and the media positioning him as a potential #1 C.

That hype included a rather strong WJ20 tournament, especiallgg the final minuteof the Championship game where he showed great fortitude by being "the guy" who they couldnt take off the ice at that crutial point in the game. It continued with a rather strong showing to close out his Junior season by producing consistent multiple point games.

The disappointment started his very first stint in the NHL those initial 9 or 10 games where he looked completely lost, small, weak and slow...then got sent back down. That caused the majority of fans to look at him like

He is slowly improving his game as evidenced by his points and goals for each season (stepped back for G's in year 2 though).
However, it is alarming to me that he was Dr Jeckle and Mr Hyde in his contract year. It wasnt 3 coaches, it wasnt playing center (he played more games with Jack and ROR but produced just as woofully as when at C) ... it was "something"...whether it was substance abuse or a wakeup call from his Agent or both...dont know and dont care really.
Except, how do the sabres KNOW that issue is firmly in the past...they don't.
1 or 2 years at $4.75 prove it deal. THEN, pay the man accordingly.
- IonSabres

👍
I agree %1000

Yes, one 40 game sample of his 200+ game career should override everything else.

Talk to me when he finishes a season as a top 100 scorer

Or top 100 in PPG
- sbroads24

Exactly.

It's the same when you want to use one 40 game sample when he was not good and disregard the other 200 that he's played where he's been Steady Eddie.

Exactly.

It's the same when you want to use one 40 game sample when he was not good and disregard the other 200 that he's played where he's been Steady Eddie.
- Wetbandit1

And when exactly have I said that he’s the player he was in the first 40?

He is who he is. A solid complimentary player. End of story.

👍
I agree %1000
- Boss34

The funny thing is that hd was in the final year of his EC, on a "prove it" deal at that point and completely poop the bed for 44 games....leaving far more questions than answers.
I just dont understand how some can trust who he is....
A) Loafer, unmotivated, and "something else" guy who would struggle in the NHL
B) 25/25 guy
C) 1.0 PPG guy
Those are all widely different contract values.
Those who say B , how do they know he isnt C.

If he doesnt bet on himself...that in and of itself tells me quite a bit, and I wouldnt pay him more than 5.0 - 5.5 long term.

👍
I agree %1000
- Boss34

I'm not really sure there's any real risk in a $6mil/yr long term deal. If he only improves a little and tops out at 55-60 pts, we have him at market value. But if he turns out to be that 75 pt player, then you simply can't afford him in three years when you've also got to pay Dahlin and Mitts. 6mx6 or 6mx7 will be a huge bargain in 3 years if he meets that 70-80 plateau. He'll also be easy to move at the end of his deal if it brings him to UFA.

Im watching a replay of Giants and Browns game...at least I thi k it is a replay...whatever.
I was right all along with BAKER FRIGGIN MAYFIELD ... he is going to be a beast in this league assuming the Browns continue to successfully build around him.
He has it all.

The funny thing is that hd was in the final year of his EC, on a "prove it" deal at that point and completely poop the bed for 44 games....leaving far more questions than answers.
I just dont understand how some can trust who he is....
A) Loafer, unmotivated, and "something else" guy who would struggle in the NHL
B) 25/25 guy
C) 1.0 PPG guy
Those are all widely different contract values.
Those who say B , how do they know he isnt C.

If he doesnt bet on himself...that in and of itself tells me quite a bit, and I wouldnt pay him more than 5.0 - 5.5 long term.
- IonSabres

The loafer is already a 22 g, 47 pt/yr guy.

I'm not really sure there's any real risk in a $6mil/yr long term deal. If he only improves a little and tops out at 55-60 pts, we have him at market value. But if he turns out to be that 75 pt player, then you simply can't afford him in three years when you've also got to pay Dahlin and Mitts. 6mx6 or 6mx7 will be a huge bargain in 3 years if he meets that 70-80 plateau. He'll also be easy to move at the end of his deal if it brings him to UFA.
- DonLuce20

Ok, valid points.
But no mention of him not producing...i.e. you are considering only B and C in my post azbove.
What if he turns out to be A?
Thriw those 164 games before out...SOMETHING happened at thd start of the year and lasted 44 games...how do you KNOW it doesnt reappear when you guarantee $6m per year for 5, 6, 7 years?

Pro ve it deal is smart...and if he doesnf bet on him slef...somewher between A and B should ghen be expected.

Good post

I do think eichel is in a different category.

Eichel got it all
Speed
Compete
Goals
Assists
Excitement
Cluchness
Passion
Leadership
- Boss34

He plays exactly the same style game as Tom Wilson.