Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Predicting Blackhawks Goals - Defence
Author Message
chuckdahammer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 11.01.2016

Aug 15 @ 2:41 PM ET
Predicting how many goals the Hawks get from their defensemen is really difficult. First thing to create more offense from the back end, GET THE SHOTS FROM THE POINT THROUGH !! How many times last year, they shot from the point, aiming for possible tip in or rebound ... but shot was blocked !! Get the shot through .. on net and head man the puck more accurately .... create zone entries better and the team will gain offensively from the back end
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Aug 15 @ 2:53 PM ET
Justin,

Have you heard anything thru the vine about how the vets feel about such a lack of movement this summer by management? Or maybe they are buying into the longer term picture of a stellar D in 2/3 years where they can be a strong cup contender.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Aug 15 @ 3:11 PM ET
I would be happy with $5mil x 5 years for each guy. 25-30 goals and 60ish points is worth at least $5mil in today's NHL (remember our 50ish point $10.5 million dollar man has set the bar). Both Cat and Schmaltz are young enough to really cash in again in 5 years, and $10mil for Cat and Schamltz (two top 6 players) would be a solid investment given their age and upside. But, lets be honest, with the exception of the Cap "Cheating" contracts with Hossa + Keith, and Hammer's $4.5mil deal, Stanley Bowman has overpaid EVERY SINGLE PLAYER he has signed to a contract. Even a Euro 3rd pair guy like Rutta who was healthy scratched gets a 200% raise from StanBo.
- EnzoD

So would every GM in the league...which is why it’s gonna cost more than that.
dirt4949
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: lombard, IL
Joined: 01.27.2009

Aug 15 @ 3:16 PM ET
Ellis got Seabrook money!
- VopatsRash


At least Seabrook earned his money with three cups.
what has Ellis done for you?
BGKarras
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 06.19.2012

Aug 15 @ 3:23 PM ET
Ellis got Seabrook money!
- VopatsRash

Go away TROLL...
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 15 @ 3:34 PM ET
So would every GM in the league...which is why it’s gonna cost more than that.
- Ogilthorpe2



If Stan pays anything higher than $2.5 million per year for 8 years he'll be overpaying for Schmaltz.
Rota's Rooter
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2017

Aug 15 @ 4:03 PM ET
If Schmaltz gets 60 points next season (and played the same amount), his PPG would be .65 for his ELC years, which would put him above Scheifele (at the same age and almost exactly the same number of games played) but slightly below Monahan (same games played but a year younger).

So the going rate for a 60 point player in Schmaltz's situation is not $5m. I don't know why people keep ignoring the actual comparables for him. I don't know if you're going this intentionally, but it's like some of you guys are trying to build this narrative that Schmaltz is only worth a certain (lower) amount so that if he's paid more / closer to actual market value, you can say Bowman overpaid. That's how it looks because you never provide actual evidence that he's worth $5m compared to other players contract situation, age, games player, and production.

- L_B_R


You're forgetting that the mail man of the niece of the brother-in-law who knows the assistant coach of Schmaltzs' bantam team said he disappears when things get tough.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Aug 15 @ 4:19 PM ET
Some players are beyond what is learned in the AHL, though. Like the speed of the AHL is pretty dramatically different, for example, so at some point, they have to transition to the NHL to learn skills / defense / etc at that higher pace. Leaving a player in the AHL beyond their 'done' point can stunt their growth as much as rushing them to the NHL can. So not all players need a lot of AHL time to get the development they need. Esp player who are a little older and done full NCAA or 3-4 years in Europe, like Sikura and possibly Kahun.

Also, the argument the Hawks couldn't send the players down is bunk as well - they totally could if that was what they wanted. I mean, the Hawks could sign a bunch of $1m or less replacement level players who are desperate to play in the NHL if they wanted to fill out their roster if they really really felt like it would be better for the kids to be in the AHL. That's not hard to do. You don't think any number of guys who eventually have to go to Europe because no NHL team wants to sign them wouldn't have jumped to stay in the US? Or that their aren't some older AHL-quality players that wouldn't kill to have a chance to play? Yeah, the Hawks filled out their roster with slubs like that in 2011, so it's totally doable.

They don't do that because they believe players like Debrincat and Schmaltz are NHL ready and now need to be learning at that stage. Sikura/Kahun/whoever might not be but we won't know until we see them play, so saying they should definitely be in the AHL is a bit silly. The Hawks org knows they're in the transition phase, so they're going to be looking at what is best for the future as well as the now, so that means they're not going to initially rush players because they're desperate. They're not really - they just believe it benefits some of the young players to be in the NHL at this time.

I get where you're coming from - I worry about rushing players too - but like with most things about this season, we just have to wait and see how ready they actually are. Making judgements now is kind of pointless.

- L_B_R

Great analysis that is my point i m trying to make to not rush players if they are not ready. Hawk management knows more about whem player is ready or not more than i will ever know i m just concern that some players need seasoning in the ahl and some don't. Here question for you as. Presently constituted to you believe the hawks are a playoff team?
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 15 @ 4:55 PM ET
Connor Moynihan to the IceHogs.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Aug 15 @ 5:08 PM ET
Justin,

Have you heard anything thru the vine about how the vets feel about such a lack of movement this summer by management? Or maybe they are buying into the longer term picture of a stellar D in 2/3 years where they can be a strong cup contender.

- glennjpawlak22




They ought to remember they get paid well to play. After that turd they dropped in the last 12 months shut up, wipe their asses, and play this coming season like their career's depend on it. The Scott Foster night was great, but the rest of them called bullpoop on themselves with their efforts after he took the net. As a slug these days who spends a lot more than I should on 200 level tickets I felt insulted and stupid for buying the tickets. I don't demand wins and I've seen my share of losing, but there's no excuse for lack of effort.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Aug 15 @ 5:43 PM ET
No, they do NOT HAVE TO resign ADB and/or Schmaltz - at least not at any cost. They are not, and will not be, marquis level core players. They are nice skaters with some vision and in the case of ADB, some serious snipe abilities. However, they are not the "baby core", or anything analogous to 19 or 88. When they come across more players like that either through the draft or free agency, THOSE are the guys you pay the big bucks to.

ADB at $4MM bridge and Schmaltz at $5MM bridge - I could maybe see that. But I sure would like to see Schmaltz play on a line without 88 and see what he really has in the tank before the wallet opens very widely.

Something still to be said for building a team from the net out. Goalie, top 4 D, your four centers, then fill in the role players around them. Why worry about your wingers when you have no goalie, the top 4 D not filled, and the centers not filled?

- Return of the Roar


You are right. They don't HAVE to pay these two. They still would have to pay someone to put up those points, which would cost about the same amount of money, no? I guess my point was that it doesn't matter who they pay, but they can't simply spend the cap space they have right now, because one way or the other, they need to pay for additional scoring (outside of Toews, Kane and Saad are expected to cone) which is never cheap.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Aug 15 @ 5:45 PM ET
They ought to remember they get paid well to play. After that turd they dropped in the last 12 months shut up, wipe their asses, and play this coming season like their career's depend on it. The Scott Foster night was great, but the rest of them called bullpoop on themselves with their efforts after he took the net. As a slug these days who spends a lot more than I should on 200 level tickets I felt insulted and stupid for buying the tickets. I don't demand wins and I've seen my share of losing, but there's no excuse for lack of effort.
- 6628


I hear ya and would be pissed if i were you also. Team StanBo kept trotting out the same narrative end of last season and this summer...we dont like how we finished, this will not happen in 2019 season, changes a coming, etc, etc and really not much happened so far. i think everyone has a level of frustration towards both the players and mgmt
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Aug 15 @ 5:49 PM ET
Connor Moynihan to the IceHogs.
- walleyeb1

Who is he?
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 15 @ 6:15 PM ET
Who is he?
- Scott1977

21 year old undrafted played who was with Halifax in the Q for the past 5 seasons. He was invited to the Hawks prospect camp this summer, so he must have impressed enough to get a AHL deal.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Aug 15 @ 6:35 PM ET
21 year old undrafted played who was with Halifax in the Q for the past 5 seasons. He was invited to the Hawks prospect camp this summer, so he must have impressed enough to get a AHL deal.
- L_B_R

Any type what kind of player he is grinder offense 2 way player sniper power forward ?
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Aug 15 @ 6:36 PM ET
21 year old undrafted played who was with Halifax in the Q for the past 5 seasons. He was invited to the Hawks prospect camp this summer, so he must have impressed enough to get a AHL deal.
- L_B_R



The cavemen among us will love this guy
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Aug 15 @ 6:40 PM ET
I hear ya and would be pissed if i were you also. Team StanBo kept trotting out the same narrative end of last season and this summer...we dont like how we finished, this will not happen in 2019 season, changes a coming, etc, etc and really not much happened so far. i think everyone has a level of frustration towards both the players and mgmt
- glennjpawlak22



If there's not much on the market that fits then I commend Bowman for not throwing new found dollars on a bunch of retreads. I would imagine working on a trade is next at some point. Maybe after they see how the teams starts out.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 15 @ 6:52 PM ET
The cavemen among us will love this guy
- 6628


Yeah he’s the guy that’ll stand up for his teammates, has some talent too. Will be interesting to see if Colliton can draw it out of him.

http://www.hockeyfights.com/players/18846
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 15 @ 6:58 PM ET
Any type what kind of player he is grinder offense 2 way player sniper power forward ?
- Scott1977


Yeah all of the above, but raw talent that needs someone to help him develop it:

Born in Windham, New Hampshire, the 20-year old Moynihan is entering his 5th season in the QMJHL, all for the Halifax Mooseheads. At 6’4 and 214lbs, Connor’s size allows him to play a physical game, while still putting up some impressive offensive numbers. Over his first three seasons, Connor scored a combined 50 points but took a major leap last year, where he scored 21 goals and 41 points in just 55 games. Moynihan is looking to take another step forward this year, as he prepares for another season in Halifax.
eagle50
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: ON
Joined: 07.13.2012

Aug 15 @ 7:10 PM ET
Does Duncan Keith have a skills coach/shooting?÷
D2D
Joined: 05.27.2018

Aug 15 @ 8:22 PM ET
Some players are beyond what is learned in the AHL, though. Like the speed of the AHL is pretty dramatically different, for example, so at some point, they have to transition to the NHL to learn skills / defense / etc at that higher pace. Leaving a player in the AHL beyond their 'done' point can stunt their growth as much as rushing them to the NHL can. So not all players need a lot of AHL time to get the development they need. Esp player who are a little older and done full NCAA or 3-4 years in Europe, like Sikura and possibly Kahun.

Also, the argument the Hawks couldn't send the players down is bunk as well - they totally could if that was what they wanted. I mean, the Hawks could sign a bunch of $1m or less replacement level players who are desperate to play in the NHL if they wanted to fill out their roster if they really really felt like it would be better for the kids to be in the AHL. That's not hard to do. You don't think any number of guys who eventually have to go to Europe because no NHL team wants to sign them wouldn't have jumped to stay in the US? Or that their aren't some older AHL-quality players that wouldn't kill to have a chance to play? Yeah, the Hawks filled out their roster with slubs like that in 2011, so it's totally doable.

They don't do that because they believe players like Debrincat and Schmaltz are NHL ready and now need to be learning at that stage. Sikura/Kahun/whoever might not be but we won't know until we see them play, so saying they should definitely be in the AHL is a bit silly. The Hawks org knows they're in the transition phase, so they're going to be looking at what is best for the future as well as the now, so that means they're not going to initially rush players because they're desperate. They're not really - they just believe it benefits some of the young players to be in the NHL at this time.

I get where you're coming from - I worry about rushing players too - but like with most things about this season, we just have to wait and see how ready they actually are. Making judgements now is kind of pointless.

- L_B_R


100% agreed LBR! Ultimately, playing the game (NHL) is the best teacher. This all goes back to the Hawks objective/plan/vision. I say they are indeed in transition so why not let the kids play and of course make mistakes along the way. You monitor those mistakes as correctable (adjusting to NHL speed and skill) or just plain dumb and stupid. If the kid can correct those mistakes on his own which is preferred or with guidance then he stays as long he is solid and not in over his head. Now if the mistakes are dumb and repeat offenders then they do not belong up.

We are just building a bridge for 2-3 years!!!
VopatsRash
Nashville Predators
Joined: 07.06.2013

Aug 15 @ 8:51 PM ET
So excited for the season. Especially if Jokiharu plays. It would be a thrill to see a young prospect come in and be an exciting impact player.
- BlazinMike


The Draft lottery is exciting
vandymeer23
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IA
Joined: 10.11.2014

Aug 15 @ 8:54 PM ET
Connor Moynihan to the IceHogs.
- walleyeb1

Love this signing. We are low on players of his skills in the organization. I saw Pcl former icehog signed in the echl. Sad that a vet enforcer couldn't get a ahl contract. But with that stupid 10 fight rule for a adult league is pathetic. Best of luck to both players.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Aug 15 @ 8:56 PM ET
The Draft lottery is exciting
- VopatsRash


More or less exciting than 3 Cups in 5 years? I guess you wouldn’t know since Trashville has never won a single Cup.
BGKarras
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 06.19.2012

Aug 15 @ 9:11 PM ET
The Draft lottery is exciting
- VopatsRash

Crawl back into your double wide.
No Hillrods wanted here.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next