Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Predicting Blackhawks Goals - Defence
Author Message
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Aug 16 @ 4:33 PM ET
No. I have not heard that.
- Justin Lowe

Any trade pto rumblings that you may have heard recently. All to quiet this offseason not just the hawks but rest of the league. Wonder if has anything to do with looming expansion in Seattle?
BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Aug 16 @ 4:56 PM ET
Any trade pto rumblings that you may have heard recently. All to quiet this offseason not just the hawks but rest of the league. Wonder if has anything to do with looming expansion in Seattle?
- Scott1977


Isnt there another lockout on the horizon as well?
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Aug 16 @ 5:20 PM ET
Isnt there another lockout on the horizon as well?
- BlazinMike

After this season
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 16 @ 7:30 PM ET
After this season
- Scott1977


I think each side can opt out in September, 2019 - which would trigger an expiration of the CBA in a September, 2020.

So after two more seasons.
D2D
Joined: 05.27.2018

Aug 16 @ 7:50 PM ET
Would you make this combination of trades? Brandon Saad for Torey Krug, then Erik Gustafsson for Ryan Strome.
- walleyeb1


Absolutely NO Saad for Krug! While Krug can put up points and run the PP (helps having Patranak, Bergeron, and Marchand), he is a liability in the D one...I think 5'7" or 8" tops. He isn't top pairing and one could argue if he is even top 4. Plus we have a few those LH Offensive D man already.

Absolutely YES for Gus for R Strome. While he has not even lived up to his drafted potential, maybe he just needs a change of scenery. Plus, I like Forsling over Gus; assuming coming from IR he is fine.
D2D
Joined: 05.27.2018

Aug 16 @ 7:54 PM ET
this is not happening but for discussion sake:

saad for krug debrusk and 2nd still think saad will bounce back and net 25-30 goals.

- Scott1977


By adding in DeBrusk, sign me up a done deal. I actually think DeBrusk is a better player than Saad. Again no research just optics! And yes I think Saad will get back to his usual 25-30 goals next year.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 16 @ 8:08 PM ET
By adding in DeBrusk, sign me up a done deal. I actually think DeBrusk is a better player than Saad. Again no research just optics! And yes I think Saad will get back to his usual 25-30 goals next year.
- D2D


The only time Saad scored more than 24 goals in a season was his first year with the Jackets. He’s not a usual 25- 30 goal scorer.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 16 @ 9:17 PM ET
The only time Saad scored more than 24 goals in a season was his first year with the Jackets. He’s not a usual 25- 30 goal scorer.
- walleyeb1

He'd have had 26 last season if he'd just shot his average % - not his best, just average including the down sh% year (10.9) - and 27 goals if he'd shot closer to his norm before last season - again, not his career best, but his norm (11.3/4). So Saad could be a 25-30 goal scorer, give or take a goal, esp since he's in his prime and got better in terms of quality of shots. He needs more quality passes / shot assists, though - shot volume players typically do.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 16 @ 9:27 PM ET
He'd have had 26 last season if he'd just shot his average % - not his best, just average including the down sh% year (10.9) - and 27 goals if he'd shot closer to his norm before last season - again, not his career best, but his norm (11.3/4). So Saad could be a 25-30 goal scorer, give or take a goal, esp since he's in his prime and got better in terms of quality of shots. He needs more quality passes / shot assists, though - shot volume players typically do.
- L_B_R


Yeah I agree he could be, sounds like that’s one of the things he’s been working on in the off season.

I really hope it works out, I’d love to see him score 30+ goals this season.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 16 @ 10:08 PM ET
Yeah I agree he could be, sounds like that’s one of the things he’s been working on in the off season.

I really hope it works out, I’d love to see him score 30+ goals this season.

- walleyeb1



Not that it's everything, but Saad's value goes beyond his points. Saad averaged the most PK time among the regular forwards last season. That being said, the team desperately needs Saad to return to a decent level of output (50-60 points) in addition to his PK time.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Aug 16 @ 10:27 PM ET
Some players are beyond what is learned in the AHL, though. Like the speed of the AHL is pretty dramatically different, for example, so at some point, they have to transition to the NHL to learn skills / defense / etc at that higher pace. Leaving a player in the AHL beyond their 'done' point can stunt their growth as much as rushing them to the NHL can. So not all players need a lot of AHL time to get the development they need. Esp player who are a little older and done full NCAA or 3-4 years in Europe, like Sikura and possibly Kahun.

Also, the argument the Hawks couldn't send the players down is bunk as well - they totally could if that was what they wanted. I mean, the Hawks could sign a bunch of $1m or less replacement level players who are desperate to play in the NHL if they wanted to fill out their roster if they really really felt like it would be better for the kids to be in the AHL. That's not hard to do. You don't think any number of guys who eventually have to go to Europe because no NHL team wants to sign them wouldn't have jumped to stay in the US? Or that their aren't some older AHL-quality players that wouldn't kill to have a chance to play? Yeah, the Hawks filled out their roster with slubs like that in 2011, so it's totally doable.

They don't do that because they believe players like Debrincat and Schmaltz are NHL ready and now need to be learning at that stage. Sikura/Kahun/whoever might not be but we won't know until we see them play, so saying they should definitely be in the AHL is a bit silly. The Hawks org knows they're in the transition phase, so they're going to be looking at what is best for the future as well as the now, so that means they're not going to initially rush players because they're desperate. They're not really - they just believe it benefits some of the young players to be in the NHL at this time.

I get where you're coming from - I worry about rushing players too - but like with most things about this season, we just have to wait and see how ready they actually are. Making judgements now is kind of pointless.

- L_B_R


A few unknown possibilities exist each year. To what extent either Bowman and or Q is willing to go could depend upon the team's record and how well the team jells whether at the end of the game a victory or loss has occurred.

Injuries and concussion issues is inevitable.

What I am suggesting is that an AHL player might develop under the guidance of Colliton. A deeper, better forward group may shaping up but who can say how all the young dmen will fare without a veteran or two patrolling the blueline

Perhaps by season end we see the incremental progress from certain players. This might include one or two brief recall then kept and used in the NHL once they accept playoffs is not happening.

You could for s surprise, like Sikura's brother or Knott really comes on strong. Fortin is someone I think both Bowman and Q would love to give an opportunity.

I am sort of reaching with the nomination of Samuelson's kid. He is credited, howevet
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 17 @ 8:28 AM ET
Stan misses another opportunity...how does he still (Stan) still have a job???


Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Aug 17 @ 8:44 AM ET
Stan misses another opportunity...how does he still (Stan) still have a job???


- DarthKane


There's signing to play in the KHL and there's signing with a KHL team located in the middle of nowhere. Steeg did the latter. Best of luck to him.
pdx2ord
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Aug 17 @ 9:20 AM ET
https://theathletic.com/4...eason-player-development/

Belfry - Crosby and Kane's (amongst many others) skills coach talks offseason training. Couple of good quotes, but there are more:



SP: How do you handle a player aging? I’ve been more curious about that covering the Blackhawks and their core either in their 30s or entering them. How do you prepare them for some of the physical attributes that may decline with age?

Belfry: I think age is less a factor than the player becoming stagnant in their development. They stop growing. It’s more their capacity for improvement stagnates because they stop actively seeking to get better. So, they’ve reached 24, 25 years old, they get a really good level in their game and then they start feeling really good. But then all of a sudden, 28, 29, they haven’t really gotten a tremendous amount better in terms of adding pieces to their skillset over those last couple of years and now you’re kind of the same player. The problem with that is the NHL is so well scouted by coaches and everyone else. If you’re not adding pieces to your game all the time, you’re going to find a wall just because people know too much about you, so you’re constantly always trying to add new things to your new game. So I think it’s less of a factor of players getting older. It’s a combination of getting older and not really making great strides to improve.

=============

SP: Who’s done a good job of reinventing themselves?

Belfry: I think the two best guys that come to mind would probably be a Sidney Crosby and a Patrick Kane. Those two guys I think in my mind do the best of adding pieces to their game all the time. The other guy I think who does a great job of adding elements to his game is John Tavares. He’s added a lot over the course of his career. He’s added a lot of different levels of capacity to his game than you would normally notice.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Aug 17 @ 10:07 AM ET
https://theathletic.com/476346/2018/08/17/theres-not-an-offseason-anymore-darryl-belfry-explains-the-evolution-of-offseason-player-development/

Belfry - Crosby and Kane's (amongst many others) skills coach talks offseason training. Couple of good quotes, but there are more:

- pdx2ord


This was an interesting read. It’s just one guy’s opinion and he obviously believes in the process...why wouldn’t he, it’s his livelihood.

But it certainty makes sense, and makes you appreciate Kane’s commitment to his craft,

Was also nice to hear that Schmaltz attended last year and hope he is this year as well. I remember the knock on him coming up was essentially no commitment to defense and play away from the puck were lacking, also heard “lazy” mentioned a few times.

Anecdotally, heard some things from another poster who mentioned that the “lazy” rap was unwarranted and that Schmaltz was also committed to improvement and coachable. Aside from some conditioning I think the thing he needs to work on most is shooting.

Obviously not going out on a limb here with that statement and I think he already possesses a good shot, just needs to unleash it more,
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 17 @ 10:22 AM ET
There's signing to play in the KHL and there's signing with a KHL team located in the middle of nowhere. Steeg did the latter. Best of luck to him.
- Beaver-Warrior


He must really love hockey - or he really needs the money - Omsk does not sound like the place to be in Dec, Jan, Feb....
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 17 @ 10:54 AM ET


StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 17 @ 11:08 AM ET


- DarthKane


So doing some math based on Yost’s graph - Hawks hit iron on 7% of their missed shots (meaning they had about 940 missed shots last season - seams low, but ok).

The best team had only about a 3% rate.

Had the the Hawks been at the 3%, they would have hit about 38 fewer irons - say, half of those would have been wide or high and half would have been goals - about 19 more goals.

The league average looks to be about 5.3% - which (same half-and-half criteria) would have meant an additional 8 goals.
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Aug 17 @ 11:09 AM ET


- DarthKane

I wonder where that ranks?

ETA: the link didn't work for me at first, now I can see we had the highest % in the league (not that it really mattered with last year's team).
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Aug 17 @ 11:10 AM ET
https://theathletic.com/476346/2018/08/17/theres-not-an-offseason-anymore-darryl-belfry-explains-the-evolution-of-offseason-player-development/

Belfry - Crosby and Kane's (amongst many others) skills coach talks offseason training. Couple of good quotes, but there are more:

- pdx2ord



What an awesome and spot on quote. I think that is reason #1 why Toews play has fallen off. He hasn't done anything to improve his game that I can see, except for him trying to slim down to get faster.

If anything his skill game has regressed. There is less creativity in his game the last few years, poor stick handling, and poor puck control.
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Aug 17 @ 11:13 AM ET
This was an interesting read. It’s just one guy’s opinion and he obviously believes in the process...why wouldn’t he, it’s his livelihood.

But it certainty makes sense, and makes you appreciate Kane’s commitment to his craft,

Was also nice to hear that Schmaltz attended last year and hope he is this year as well. I remember the knock on him coming up was essentially no commitment to defense and play away from the puck were lacking, also heard “lazy” mentioned a few times.

Anecdotally, heard some things from another poster who mentioned that the “lazy” rap was unwarranted and that Schmaltz was also committed to improvement and coachable. Aside from some conditioning I think the thing he needs to work on most is shooting.

Obviously not going out on a limb here with that statement and I think he already possesses a good shot, just needs to unleash it more,

- HawkintheD


Def don't agree with the "lazy" tag. He was the hawks best back checker last year. Maybe complacent is a better word. Seems to differ to teammates too often. I get its a team game but Schmaltz would benefit from being a little more selfish with the puck. He needs more of Kane's mindset of wanting to be the guy.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Aug 17 @ 11:15 AM ET
Any trade pto rumblings that you may have heard recently. All to quiet this offseason not just the hawks but rest of the league. Wonder if has anything to do with looming expansion in Seattle?
- Scott1977


Hey Scott - not hearing anything on the trade front.

Heard that they were going to be looking at a lot of different guys in various positions for PTOs and Sbisa's name was the only one that resurfaced (he's been out there earlier / think JJ was on that tip as well).

Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Aug 17 @ 11:16 AM ET
Stan misses another opportunity...how does he still (Stan) still have a job???


- DarthKane


Versteeg... great guy, I liked him on the Hawks.

Good luck to him!
Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Aug 17 @ 11:18 AM ET
He must really love hockey - or he really needs the money - Omsk does not sound like the place to be in Dec, Jan, Feb....
- StLBravesFan


From a Russian guide: "The average temperature in January is minus 16.3 degrees Celsius, in July - plus 19.6 degrees Celsius." For us yanks that's 2.6 °F. Brrrrrr
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 17 @ 11:28 AM ET
Sadly enough, if everyone just played to their contracts forwards and defense these goal totals would be easily blown away.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next