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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs odds on favorites to win Cup; Countdown to camp
Author Message
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:20 PM ET
to me that's decent coin
- zazzle


It would remind me of the Subban bridge deal alot.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:20 PM ET
Leafs should be the favourite. There's a lot of delusional Leaf-haters who will have a tough year ahead.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Sep 12 @ 4:21 PM ET
Yeah but what bed sheets did he have when he was 10?

Whether he's a better player or not, he got 7 as a pending UFA after proven he's a multiple time 30 goal scorer. Nylander can't argue that. He has zero leverage of becoming a UFA, zero proof of being a multiple time 30 goal scorer and zero ability to ask for as much as 8 and realistically get it.

- Unholy_Goalie


It's well known that Pacioretty had Maple Leaf bed sheets as a kid..
With Nylander, you are paying for his potential.. I think he could become a 30 goal scorer in this league. The kid is only 22. For Kane, I think SJ paid for what he's done in the past.. I don't think the Sharks will like the deal in 3 years
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Sep 12 @ 4:22 PM ET
Funny how people will see a 30 year old player and say "He's over the hill" and "the best is behind him" but will still justify him getting more money by "he's a ufa".

It used to be true, but it's a young man's game now. The Leafs got some great young players who know their worth and if you want them for a long time.... well they'll need to pay them accordingly.

Nylander is not getting 8M, of that I agree with all of you.... but is it farfetched of him to ask for this as a starting point to eventually get something like 7?

I don't think so.

- Scabeh


I can't believe I am agreeing with a Habs fan...


Just kidding, love you Scabs
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:23 PM ET
I can't believe I am agreeing with a Habs fan...


Just kidding, love you Scabs

- PatC80


Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Sep 12 @ 4:24 PM ET
Funny how people will see a 30 year old player and say "He's over the hill" and "the best is behind him" but will still justify him getting more money by "he's a ufa".

It used to be true, but it's a young man's game now. The Leafs got some great young players who know their worth and if you want them for a long time.... well they'll need to pay them accordingly.


Nylander is not getting 8M, of that I agree with all of you.... but is it farfetched of him to ask for this as a starting point to eventually get something like 7?

I don't think so.

- Scabeh

Lemme help you out here, Scabby:

Pending UFA: Overpay me, or I'll find another team stupid enough to really overpay me, and you get nothing in return.

GM: Gulp, OK.

Pending RFA: Overpay me....or else...

GM: Or else what, young man? What are you going to do - stay home and make nothing? Sign this underwhelming contract or GFY.

Pending RFA: Gulp, OK.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:25 PM ET
It’s not different because leafs

Nylander sucks apparently but still is going to get paid like a superstar

Because leafs

- Santo_44

That's what I always see about the Leafs from non-Leaf fans.Leaf players are overrated and suck, until contract time where they will get massive deals.
markmark
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 07.27.2010

Sep 12 @ 4:25 PM ET
Funny how people will see a 30 year old player and say "He's over the hill" and "the best is behind him" but will still justify him getting more money by "he's a ufa".

It used to be true, but it's a young man's game now. The Leafs got some great young players who know their worth and if you want them for a long time.... well they'll need to pay them accordingly.

Nylander is not getting 8M, of that I agree with all of you.... but is it farfetched of him to ask for this as a starting point to eventually get something like 7?

I don't think so.

- Scabeh


If anyone is wondering, this applies to Hockeybuzz too. If you're over 30 your posts don't matter and us sub-30 posters should be getting our memberships paid for by you.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Sep 12 @ 4:28 PM ET
Lemme help you out here, Scabby:
Lucic: Overpay me, cause no other team is stupid enough to really overpay me

Chiarelli: OK, already done.. Sign here.

Draisaitl: Overpay me....or else...

Chiarelli : Or else what, young man? What are you going to do - stay home and make nothing? Just kidding, here you go.. sign here

Draisaitl: really? Wow that was easy..

- Atomic Wedgie

Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:29 PM ET
Lemme help you out here, Scabby:

Pending UFA: Overpay me, or I'll find another team stupid enough to really overpay me, and you get nothing in return.

GM: Gulp, OK.

Pending RFA: Overpay me....or else...

GM: Or else what, young man? What are you going to do - stay home and make nothing? Sign this underwhelming contract or GFY.

Pending RFA: Gulp, OK.

- Atomic Wedgie




While I agree with your point Wedgie, is this how you create a long lasting relationship with your young star players?

Is that how you'd want the Leafs to treat Matthews?
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:29 PM ET
[quote=Atomic Wedgie]Lemme help you out here, Scabby:
Lucic: Overpay me, cause no other team is stupid enough to really overpay me

Chiarelli: OK, already done.. Sign here.

Draisaitl: Overpay me....or else...

Chiarelli : Or else what, young man? What are you going to do - stay home and make nothing? Just kidding, here you go.. sign here

Draisaitl: really? Wow that was easy..

- PatC80


(frank)ing Chiarelli.
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:30 PM ET
If anyone is wondering, this applies to Hockeybuzz too. If you're over 30 your posts don't matter and us sub-30 posters should be getting our memberships paid for by you.
- markmark


Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Sep 12 @ 4:30 PM ET
Lemme help you out here, Scabby:
Lucic: Overpay me, cause no other team is stupid enough to really overpay me

Chiarelli: OK, already done.. Sign here.

Draisaitl: Overpay me....or else...

Chiarelli : Or else what, young man? What are you going to do - stay home and make nothing? Just kidding, here you go.. sign here

Draisaitl: really? Wow that was easy..

- PatC80

Technically speaking, Draisaitl had the option of being traded away for crap in return.

You know, because Chiarelli...
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Sep 12 @ 4:30 PM ET
Funny how people will see a 30 year old player and say "He's over the hill" and "the best is behind him" but will still justify him getting more money by "he's a ufa".

It used to be true, but it's a young man's game now. The Leafs got some great young players who know their worth and if you want them for a long time.... well they'll need to pay them accordingly.

Nylander is not getting 8M, of that I agree with all of you.... but is it farfetched of him to ask for this as a starting point to eventually get something like 7?

I don't think so.

- Scabeh


Players get more money as a UFA. That's just a fact. And the reason why that's a fact is because multiple offers give the player more options which increases his negotiation power. You talked about the Vegas taxes, the tax situation in Florida isn't too bad either. He would have had multiple options. As a RFA, Nylander has no options. Any team trying to acquire him would have to give up draft picks too, which is a major deterrent.

He's a 20 goal, 60 point player with potential to be more. But as of now, his options are limited compared to a guy like Patches and should get less than him too, especially if it's a short term deal because the Leafs wouldn't be paying for any of his UFA years, which brings us full circle because those are the big pay day years.

So on an 8 year deal, it's 7 AAV. But on a 2 or 3 year deal, it's 6 or less.

Or, a 1 year 10 million dollar deal, and an 8 year extension in January at 6.5 AAV which gives him more total dollars and keeps the cap hit lower when it matters.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Sep 12 @ 4:31 PM ET


While I agree with your point Wedgie, is this how you create a long lasting relationship with your young star players?

Is that how you'd want the Leafs to treat Matthews?

- Scabeh

You give Matthews a blank cheque.

You play hardball with Marner, but with a smile on your face the whole time.

You quote Judge Smails when giving Nylander his offer.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:32 PM ET
"Odds on favorite" is inaccurate. Vegas just moved the line because a lot of action is coming from Toronto.

How many "Vegas favorites" in September have actually won the Cup though? Just curious.

- Unholy_Goalie


Vegas usually has Toronto as having no chance every year except this year so I don't buy the Toronto argument.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Sep 12 @ 4:33 PM ET
It's well known that Pacioretty had Maple Leaf bed sheets as a kid..
With Nylander, you are paying for his potential.. I think he could become a 30 goal scorer in this league. The kid is only 22. For Kane, I think SJ paid for what he's done in the past.. I don't think the Sharks will like the deal in 3 years

- PatC80


If Nylander scores 30 and Kane scores 30, both teams got what they paid for then, did they not? If Nylander gets paid for "potential" and reaches that potential while Kane continues to score as he did before (he's only 26), both teams got what they paid for. The difference being, Nylander "might" do it. Kane already does. In negotiations, because Kane has options, he got 7. Nylander doesn't, so he might get 6.
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Sep 12 @ 4:33 PM ET
Players get more money as a UFA. That's just a fact. And the reason why that's a fact is because multiple offers give the player more options which increases his negotiation power. You talked about the Vegas taxes, the tax situation in Florida isn't too bad either. He would have had multiple options. As a RFA, Nylander has no options. Any team trying to acquire him would have to give up draft picks too, which is a major deterrent.

He's a 20 goal, 60 point player with potential to be more. But as of now, his options are limited compared to a guy like Patches and should get less than him too, especially if it's a short term deal because the Leafs wouldn't be paying for any of his UFA years, which brings us full circle because those are the big pay day years.

So on an 8 year deal, it's 7 AAV. But on a 2 or 3 year deal, it's 6 or less.

Or, a 1 year 10 million dollar deal, and an 8 year extension in January at 6.5 AAV which gives him more total dollars and keeps the cap hit lower when it matters.

- Unholy_Goalie


Funny after all these different arguments and point of view, we end up pretty much agreeing on the cost.

I'm off to home, have a nice evening gents.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Sep 12 @ 4:35 PM ET
Vegas usually has Toronto as having no chance every year except this year so I don't buy the Toronto argument.
- RogerRoeper


That's because Leafs fans weren't dropping millions of dollars in bets in the past. They sign Tavares and homer Leafs fans put enough money down to move the line so Vegas can cash in.

Vegas moves the lines in two main ways: to profit off of bad bets and to cover their ass on both sides of the line.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Sep 12 @ 4:40 PM ET
Funny after all these different arguments and point of view, we end up pretty much agreeing on the cost.

I'm off to home, have a nice evening gents.

- Scabeh


For the record though, Patches signed a 6 year, 27 million dollar, 4.5 AAV deal after one 33 goal, 65 point season (both more than Nylander last year). It's possible that 4.5 in 2012 could be seen as 6 million today. So a 6 year, 36 million (or less) dollar Nylander deal is also still possible.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Sep 12 @ 5:11 PM ET
That's because Leafs fans weren't dropping millions of dollars in bets in the past. They sign Tavares and homer Leafs fans put enough money down to move the line so Vegas can cash in.

Vegas moves the lines in two main ways: to profit off of bad bets and to cover their ass on both sides of the line.

- Unholy_Goalie


So where should the Leafs be then? They had the 6th best record without Tavares and with Matthews/Marner/Nylander all 21 and under.

Always an excuse with the Leafs. They can't just be good.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Sep 12 @ 5:14 PM ET
So where should the Leafs be then? They had the 6th best record without Tavares and with Matthews/Marner/Nylander all 21 and under.

Always an excuse with the Leafs. They can't just be good.

- RogerRoeper

They lost JVR, they still have gaping holes on defence, and I know I'm going to take some abuse for this, but Andersen is still a question mark.

I love my Leafers. I'm already looking forward to opening night.

But the favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year?

C'mon - they aren't there yet.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Sep 12 @ 5:32 PM ET
They lost JVR, they still have gaping holes on defence, and I know I'm going to take some abuse for this, but Andersen is still a question mark.

I love my Leafers. I'm already looking forward to opening night.

But the favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year?

C'mon - they aren't there yet.

- Atomic Wedgie


All correct.

So where should the Leafs be then? They had the 6th best record without Tavares and with Matthews/Marner/Nylander all 21 and under.

Always an excuse with the Leafs. They can't just be good.

- RogerRoeper


Also, being "6th overall" was in large part due to the shootout. Without Bozak, they could lose a few points there too.

Steven_Seagull
Joined: 03.03.2016

Sep 12 @ 5:45 PM ET
All correct.



Also, being "6th overall" was in large part due to the shootout. Without Bozak, they could lose a few points there too.


- Unholy_Goalie



With shootouts, the Leafs tied with Washington for the 6th most points.

Take away shootout wins, the Leafs would’ve finished tied for 7th in points with Pittsburgh and Minnesota.


Wow...what a drop...clearly it was just the shootout wins that carried the Leafs...
Mike Augello
Commissioner
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 06.25.2006

Sep 12 @ 5:45 PM ET
new blog everyone
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