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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Notes
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IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 12 @ 8:48 PM ET
3/4 of the season to go, who knows how he finishes. Feels like he's won a regular spot for now. The tough part with him is that he's 2.4m just to qualify.
- Lunaion


Ya, not happening...trade him at the TD then.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Hail Satan
Joined: 10.07.2010

Nov 12 @ 8:48 PM ET
Ya, not sure how I missed Skinner's existing contract.
Moulson doesn't show up on Hockey Reference, not sure why.


I guess they could go shopping for 1 UFA this offseason if they wanted.
I would really like to see them acquire a solid partner for Dahlin...Strahlman from Tampa would be great fof 2 - 3 years.

- IonSabres


Use capfriendly for salary info.

Moulson wasn't on HR because he's not on the team.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Hail Satan
Joined: 10.07.2010

Nov 12 @ 8:51 PM ET
https://twitter.com/buffalobills/status/1062148063068864512?s=19
- kingcong39


TheHank
Location: Yawn.
Joined: 01.11.2017

Nov 12 @ 8:52 PM ET
Use capfriendly for salary info.

Moulson wasn't on HR because he's not on the team.

- Wetbandit1

Skinner kind of throws a wrench in the cap plans. It’s a good problem to have though. I’m torn as to how much I’d want to give him and have no idea what he will command if he keeps this up.
SABRES 89
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'm very Happy to be here. Las Vegas Via Buffalo N.Y.
Joined: 02.17.2007

Nov 12 @ 8:54 PM ET
Bills waived QB Nathan Peterman.

It comes the same day coach Sean McDermott said he was "still confident" in Peterman. The 171st pick in last year's draft, Peterman was dubbed a sleeper pick at the time but went on to be anything but competent in his brief time in Buffalo. The 24-year-old made eight appearances in 1.5 seasons with the Bills, starting four games, going 1-3 with a historically-bad 3:12 TD:INT mark, throwing an interception on 9.2% of his passes. It's pretty telling that longtime borderline NFLer Matt Barkley joined the Bills less than two weeks ago and immediately looked like a Hall of Famer compared to Peterman. We'd bet he eventually gets another shot and a much needed change of scenery. He'll never develop into a starter with long odds of becoming even a No. 2.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 12 @ 8:54 PM ET
Use capfriendly for salary info.

Moulson wasn't on HR because he's not on the team.

- Wetbandit1

[url]

Makes sense, thanks
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Nov 12 @ 8:55 PM ET
Skinner kind of throws a wrench in the cap plans. It’s a good problem to have though. I’m torn as to how much I’d want to give him and have no idea what he will command if he keeps this up.
- TheHank


i start getting really uncomfortable above 8.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 12 @ 8:55 PM ET
3/4 of the season to go, who knows how he finishes. Feels like he's won a regular spot for now. The tough part with him is that he's 2.4m just to qualify.
- Lunaion



if you look around the rest of the league, value wise 2.4 is probably about right for a 25/26 year old.

I think he gets moved because while that number is fine, Pilut will likely be able to do at least as well as him next year for about 1/3 of the cost.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 12 @ 8:56 PM ET
Skinner kind of throws a wrench in the cap plans. It’s a good problem to have though. I’m torn as to how much I’d want to give him and have no idea what he will command if he keeps this up.
- TheHank


Well, not sure he can keep it up, pretty torrid pace he is on...56 goals.
I'd look for him to settle down a bit...still be very productive but I'm thinking in the 35 ... maybe 40 goal range.
We arev probably talking at least $8m at that point, right?
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 12 @ 8:57 PM ET
i start getting really uncomfortable above 8.
- Lunaion



Its the question nobody wants to ask. Do you really want to pay a winger 9 million dollars a year?

Because that's where it's heading. Even accounting for some major regression, he's still pretty likely to hit the 40 goal mark and get to UFA status at 26. Kane got 7 mil. It's really not as unlikely as people think.

Even with him being as great as he is, Im not totally sure I would do it.
TheHank
Location: Yawn.
Joined: 01.11.2017

Nov 12 @ 8:58 PM ET
i start getting really uncomfortable above 8.
- Lunaion

Me too. The term really worries me too. Not a fan of 7year deals.
TheHank
Location: Yawn.
Joined: 01.11.2017

Nov 12 @ 8:59 PM ET
Its the question nobody wants to ask. Do you really want to pay a winger 9 million dollars a year?

Because that's where it's heading. Even accounting for some major regression, he's still pretty likely to hit the 40 goal mark and get to UFA status at 26. Kane got 7 mil. It's really not as unlikely as people think.

Even with him being as great as he is, Im not totally sure I would do it.

- Sabresfan-365

I would rather do 9x4 than 7.5x7.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 12 @ 9:01 PM ET
if you look around the rest of the league, value wise 2.4 is probably about right for a 25/26 year old.

I think he gets moved because while that number is fine, Pilut will likely be able to do at least as well as him next year for about 1/3 of the cost.

- Sabresfan-365


Exactly.
I wouldn't even consider starting at $2.4 to qualify him.
Same argument I had with Sam...Blowboy sucks for 2 years, plays ok for 1...who is he really?
Not taking thdd risk her reverts with a new contract in hand.
Great trade candidate to keep restocking the cupboards necessary for paying the right performers.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Nov 12 @ 9:02 PM ET
Its the question nobody wants to ask. Do you really want to pay a winger 9 million dollars a year?

Because that's where it's heading. Even accounting for some major regression, he's still pretty likely to hit the 40 goal mark and get to UFA status at 26. Kane got 7 mil. It's really not as unlikely as people think.

Even with him being as great as he is, Im not totally sure I would do it.

- Sabresfan-365


That means you're trading him at the deadline, most likely.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 12 @ 9:03 PM ET
I would rather do 9x4 than 7.5x7.
- TheHank


So would I but if Kane could get 7 mil over 7 years what do you suppose skinner could leverage in a long term deal?

TheHank
Location: Yawn.
Joined: 01.11.2017

Nov 12 @ 9:03 PM ET
That means you're trading him at the deadline, most likely.
- kingcong39

I could think of worse.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 12 @ 9:04 PM ET
That means you're trading him at the deadline, most likely.
- kingcong39


If I told you the Sabres could turn Cliff Pu and some middling draft picks into a first and prospect in six months, you'd probably say they did pretty well no?

Just another thing to consider.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 12 @ 9:07 PM ET
Its the question nobody wants to ask. Do you really want to pay a winger 9 million dollars a year?

Because that's where it's heading. Even accounting for some major regression, he's still pretty likely to hit the 40 goal mark and get to UFA status at 26. Kane got 7 mil. It's really not as unlikely as people think.

Even with him being as great as he is, Im not totally sure I would do it.

- Sabresfan-365


Well, that is why IMO it is better to wait...see what he reallgy produces over a longer period.
If he is consistent and gets 40 while also playing like he cares defensively..I'm good with $8 / $9
But you are right, it does make me uncomfortable in doing so.

My gut says he finishes around 35+, and they give him a 8 × 8
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Hail Satan
Joined: 10.07.2010

Nov 12 @ 9:08 PM ET
I would rather do 9x4 than 7.5x7.
- TheHank


If I was a player, in the NHL with guaranteed contracts, not a chance in hell I'd do that.

I'll take the extra $16.5M.

Let's say he signs mid-season, there's no guarantee he's even in the league in 4 and a half years let alone primed for a big pay day.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Hail Satan
Joined: 10.07.2010

Nov 12 @ 9:10 PM ET
If I told you the Sabres could turn Cliff Pu and some middling draft picks into a first and prospect in six months, you'd probably say they did pretty well no?

Just another thing to consider.

- Sabresfan-365


Sure, but that's kind of misleading, no? They turned it into Skinner whom they then turned into futures.
TheHank
Location: Yawn.
Joined: 01.11.2017

Nov 12 @ 9:10 PM ET
So would I but if Kane could get 7 mil over 7 years what do you suppose skinner could leverage in a long term deal?
- Sabresfan-365

That’s the conundrum. I really have no idea. Their career numbers are actually pretty comparable though I think skinner is so much more dynamic. I really don’t see him getting more than 8per on a long term 7 year deal. Kane’s 7per set the floor. He might make more in the long run if he took around a 9x4 deal from us then got one more deal after that from someone. He would be 30 or 31, oshies age at that point. It’s not impossible to think.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Nov 12 @ 9:10 PM ET
Its the question nobody wants to ask. Do you really want to pay a winger 9 million dollars a year?

Because that's where it's heading. Even accounting for some major regression, he's still pretty likely to hit the 40 goal mark and get to UFA status at 26. Kane got 7 mil. It's really not as unlikely as people think.

Even with him being as great as he is, Im not totally sure I would do it.

- Sabresfan-365


Yup, he's made it really hard to walk away. When indecision sets in on a forum, you know JB has a tough call. 9m is a tough call.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 12 @ 9:11 PM ET
If I told you the Sabres could turn Cliff Pu and some middling draft picks into a first and prospect in six months, you'd probably say they did pretty well no?

Just another thing to consider.

- Sabresfan-365



Sure, stated like that, it is a good deal.

But I would much rather have that 35-40 goal guy who is proven, rather than hope and pray some 18 yearold kid can develop into a top 6....that 1st rounder is likel a mid / low 20 pick.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 12 @ 9:12 PM ET
Well, that is why IMO it is better to wait...see what he reallgy produces over a longer period.
If he is consistent and gets 40 while also playing like he cares defensively..I'm good with $8 / $9
But you are right, it does make me uncomfortable in doing so.

My gut says he finishes around 35+, and they give him a 8 × 8

- IonSabres


The thing to consider is Skinner is one of the few wingers who can create his own goal scoring and Eichel's one of the few who actually inflates his wingers shooting percentage.

He and his agent knew exactly what they were doing when he nixed LA and waived for BUF.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 12 @ 9:13 PM ET
Sure, but that's kind of misleading, no? They turned it into Skinner whom they then turned into futures.
- Wetbandit1



My point was more to illustrate that unlike say kane, there is no real sunk cost here. Nothing of value was given and even in the "worst case" you still come out with double the value you did in the summer.
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