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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Minor league shuffle and the need for goalie depth; Leafs vs. Canes
Author Message
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Dec 12 @ 3:41 PM ET
If he's going to get more than $4M I take the first and third as compensation instead.
- prock

If he tries to get anything close to or above 4m per.....he'll be traded.
Cant afford it
Unless gardiner walks
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Dec 12 @ 3:42 PM ET
You know what else is going to be used in contract negotiations?

"Sure, if you think you can make $4M go ahead and find someone to offer you that contract. In the meantime, we're happy to have you sit until December, which will really help us with cap room anyway".

So, how many teams do you think line up to offer Kapanen that? Along with giving up the picks?

- prock

If anyone offers him $2,029,660 to $4,059,322, compensation is only a 2nd round pick.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Dec 12 @ 3:43 PM ET
He's currently on pace for 56 points this year.

How much money did we shove at Nylander for a 61 point season last year?

Be afraid.

Be very afraid.

- Atomic Wedgie


Nylander's 1st 2 full NHl seasons he got 61 points each
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Dec 12 @ 3:44 PM ET
Yes. For his pace this season he will for sure.
- Santo_44


Banking on a bunch of hat tricks !!
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Dec 12 @ 3:57 PM ET
If anyone offers him $2,029,660 to $4,059,322, compensation is only a 2nd round pick.
- Atomic Wedgie


Offer sheets are as common as a big year by Dustin Penner.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Dec 12 @ 4:00 PM ET
Before this year and playing with matthews...10pts in 55 games.

This year, on the top line 21pts in 31 games
Everything will be considered when he gets extended

- Fakepartofme

It is easy to look at hockey DB and just guess that Kapanen has played with Matthews all season like you just did. I choose to research.

According to Natural Stat trick:

Kapanen has played 250:39 mins without Matthews 5v5...and 179:28 mins with Matthews 5v5.

322:43 mins without Matthews in all strengths and 183:13 mins with Matthews.

It doesnt show points unfortunately...however it shows the advanced stats.

Kap Without Matthews 5v5

54% CF
50% Scoring chances for
49.07% High danger scoring chances for

Kap with Matthews



52% CF
49% Scoring chances for
47.22% high danger scoring chances for

AND interestingly enough Matthews has a 49% CF with Kap and a 45% CF without him.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Dec 12 @ 4:01 PM ET
Banking on a bunch of hat tricks !!
- The Law

So hat tricks don't count now for players final goal totals?

Okay, that has to count for every player then.
TrashPanda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Your Green Bin, ON
Joined: 03.29.2018

Dec 12 @ 4:05 PM ET
So hat tricks don't count now for players final goal totals?

Okay, that has to count for every player then.

- Santo_44


That depends if HOHO is around...
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 12 @ 4:06 PM ET
Pasternak sure got paid for one season.

So did Driasitl.

The most recent season matters the most. Sure previous seasons count too but not as much.

But Kaps agent can point to the mins and line mates he was given.

- Santo_44



Pastrnak - 123 points in 172 games, was age 20.
Draisaitl - even more than that. Also a 4th overall pick.

Both had accomplished more by 20 than Kapanen has at 22.

It's nowhere near the same thing.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 12 @ 4:09 PM ET
If anyone offers him $2,029,660 to $4,059,322, compensation is only a 2nd round pick.
- Atomic Wedgie



yeah, I know the ranges, but if he gets offer sheeted at $3.5M, they sign him. It's really the $3.5M to $4M that becomes a question mark.

But even then, you're talking about a team that offers him $3.5M, for 5 years or under, and give up a second, and that has to make enough of a difference to Kapanen for him to go to what is likely a bad team.

Can you even find a team to offer him $4M?
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 12 @ 4:11 PM ET
If I'm Kapanen's agent, I'd argue that the fact that Kapanen wasn't getting first line minutes, nor PP time, just illustrates how good he is.
- Atomic Wedgie



but he scored like 10 points from there.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Dec 12 @ 4:11 PM ET
So hat tricks don't count now for players final goal totals?

Okay, that has to count for every player then.

- Santo_44


Yes, please do that math.

You haven't put any comps forward are told me what amazing figures you project but we did seem to agree that Mantha and Kase were the best most recent comps.

Mantha 140 gp 41g 43a in his two years leading up to his ELC expiring.
Kase 119gp 29g 28a (most of it, like KK, coming in the most recent year).

Arguments on both sides as to why he compares better to each.

Mantha gets 2 x 3.3
Kase gets 3 x 2.6 (less than 2.6 if it were 2 years)

So most likely ceiling for KK is likely 3.5 and bottom end is likely 2.5 ....

I had him at the bottom end and you got your panties in a bunch.

And I'd be ecstatic if Johnsson bagged a dozen or so in a bottom 6 role this year. That doesn't get him north of 2 milly in the summer though.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 12 @ 4:12 PM ET
It is easy to look at hockey DB and just guess that Kapanen has played with Matthews all season like you just did. I choose to research.

According to Natural Stat trick:

Kapanen has played 250:39 mins without Matthews 5v5...and 179:28 mins with Matthews 5v5.

322:43 mins without Matthews in all strengths and 183:13 mins with Matthews.

It doesnt show points unfortunately...however it shows the advanced stats.

Kap Without Matthews 5v5

54% CF
50% Scoring chances for
49.07% High danger scoring chances for

Kap with Matthews



52% CF
49% Scoring chances for
47.22% high danger scoring chances for

AND interestingly enough Matthews has a 49% CF with Kap and a 45% CF without him.

- Santo_44



naturalstattrick does points with. Subtract the overall and you get the results. Too much work right now, can't do it. I'll do it later.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Dec 12 @ 4:19 PM ET
Yes, please do that math.

You haven't put any comps forward are told me what amazing figures you project but we did seem to agree that Mantha and Kase were the best most recent comps.

Mantha 140 gp 41g 43a in his two years leading up to his ELC expiring.
Kase 119gp 29g 28a (most of it, like KK, coming in the most recent year).

Arguments on both sides as to why he compares better to each.

Mantha gets 2 x 3.3
Kase gets 3 x 2.6 (less than 2.6 if it were 2 years)

So most likely ceiling for KK is likely 3.5 and bottom end is likely 2.5 ....

I had him at the bottom end and you got your panties in a bunch.

And I'd be ecstatic if Johnsson bagged a dozen or so in a bottom 6 role this year. That doesn't get him north of 2 milly in the summer though.

- The Law



"we can't afford another two 3+ million dollar contracts next season. "

-Santo

"I doubt either gets that much"

-TheLaw in response to Santo

I said we can't afford to have 3+ million dollar contracts. You are the one who responded to it disagreeing....So I had him 500k+ from what you thought and you got your panties in a bunch.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Dec 12 @ 4:21 PM ET
but he scored like 10 points from there.
- prock


One of our stats guys will find the perfect answer but here's what I got'

Before AM injured 11gp 6g 4a
After injury 20gp 5g 6a

Better pace with AM but who the (frank) wouldn't! Even with Kadri (without AM in the lineup) he was playing in the top 6 and getting good minutes.

Now with AM and WN in the lineup he likely plays less/gets less ....likely.

I think he ends up with 20-25 goals and 20'ish assists. 45'ish points. If he does he gets about 2 x 3 milly. Maybe a little more ...maybe a little less.
Mike Augello
Commissioner
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 06.25.2006

Dec 12 @ 4:23 PM ET
new blog everyone
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 12 @ 4:29 PM ET
One of our stats guys will find the perfect answer but here's what I got'

Before AM injured 11gp 6g 4a
After injury 20gp 5g 6a

Better pace with AM but who the (frank) wouldn't! Even with Kadri (without AM in the lineup) he was playing in the top 6 and getting good minutes.

Now with AM and WN in the lineup he likely plays less/gets less ....likely.

I think he ends up with 20-25 goals and 20'ish assists. 45'ish points. If he does he gets about 2 x 3 milly. Maybe a little more ...maybe a little less.

- The Law


That's a mid-40s point pace then......

Yeah, he's not getting more than $3M. No way. He'll get a bridge deal for 2 years, and they'll hope the cap goes up enough to keep him. If not, then he gets dealt.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Dec 12 @ 4:30 PM ET
"we can't afford another two 3+ million dollar contracts next season. "

-Santo

"I doubt either gets that much"

-TheLaw in response to Santo

I said we can't afford to have 3+ million dollar contracts. You are the one who responded to it disagreeing....So I had him 500k+ from what you thought and you got your panties in a bunch.

- Santo_44


I still doubt either gets 3+ b/c Johnsson won't and b/c Kap is, I think, going to have to slide down the lineup when Willie is back to full speed.

Where's the second 3+ milly per season? Johnsson? Yikes ...my (frank)ing panties would be wrapped around your neck (figuratively of course) if you were ready to toss him that coin.

I said 2.5'ish for Kap ...you say 3? Fine ...but why go all laughy emoticon at my suggestion he only gets that.

And Johnsson doesn't get anything close to that, IMO.

So I don't see the concern with either guy. But Andy Petrillo did on the radio this morning so maybe you're right. Although Coliacovo told her she's nuts so maybe I'm right.

We'll revisit this in July.
Drapz
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Windsor, ON
Joined: 07.10.2007

Dec 12 @ 5:40 PM ET
I had the opportunity to spend two days alone with my son while Mrs. Scabeh and the baby were away at her sister's house.

When she came back, my son cried because "he had so much fun with daddy and now that they're back it's over".


- Scabeh


Women love being proven they are not needed. Makes them real happy. /s

LPT: destroy the house next time and when she comes back give her a big hug and say thank goodness your back don't ever leave again.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 12 @ 5:48 PM ET
Women love being proven they are not needed. Makes them real happy. /s

LPT: destroy the house next time and when she comes back give her a big hug and say thank goodness your back don't ever leave again.

- Drapz


Women tap about childbirth because it's really the only thing they ARE needed for.
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