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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Year-End Mailbag
Author Message
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 2 @ 5:10 PM ET
Bad contract for bad contract? Seabs for Ryan Kessler?
- LAHawk


In a heartbeat. Seab's bad contract is two years longer than Kesler's for the same amount of cap hit.

Interestingly enough, the way their contracts are structured, the total salary over the last 4 years of Kessler's contract is nearly the same as the total salary over the last 6 years of Seabrook's contract. So it would not be about cash outlay, only cap hit and remaining value of either player on the ice.

I would take Kessler as a 3rd or 4th line center for the next 3 years. Would you like Seabs as a 2nd pair or bottom pair defender for the next 5 years?
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Jan 2 @ 5:12 PM ET
In a heartbeat. Seab's bad contract is two years longer than Kesler's for the same amount of cap hit.

Interestingly enough, the way their contracts are structured, the total salary over the last 4 years of Kessler's contract is nearly the same as the total salary over the last 6 years of Seabrook's contract. So it would not be about cash outlay, only cap hit and remaining value of either player on the ice.

I would take Kessler as a 3rd or 4th line center for the next 3 years. Would you like Seabs as a 2nd pair or bottom pair defender for the next 5 years?

- -Doh-


Ask Toews first.....
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jan 2 @ 5:21 PM ET
In a heartbeat. Seab's bad contract is two years longer than Kesler's for the same amount of cap hit.

Interestingly enough, the way their contracts are structured, the total salary over the last 4 years of Kessler's contract is nearly the same as the total salary over the last 6 years of Seabrook's contract. So it would not be about cash outlay, only cap hit and remaining value of either player on the ice.

I would take Kessler as a 3rd or 4th line center for the next 3 years. Would you like Seabs as a 2nd pair or bottom pair defender for the next 5 years?

- -Doh-


One additional (possible) advantage, Kesler is normally good to be injured for about half the year right? At least he wouldn't be blocking a good prospect.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jan 2 @ 5:21 PM ET
That is Sam Fels' site. It was originally the Committed Indian
- TheTrob

Was wondering why Sam Fels sounded familiar. I definitely remember the Committed Indian but didn't visit it regularly, maybe once in a blue moon if someone else had shared a link to check out one of their articles.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 2 @ 5:29 PM ET
Ask Toews first.....
- I Am The Breadman


Here is what I would tell Toews. I am trading one of the teammates you are closest to for maybe the NHL player you hate the most. But this is a business and we save nearly $14 mil in cap hit over two years (3 years from now). He can take some of your PK minutes and defensive zone faceoffs, so that will increase your 5v5 TOI, which will help your offensive numbers. I will do everything I can to flip Kesler this summer. It will be easier to flip Kesler with 3 years remaining on his contract than Seabs with 5 years remaining. At worst in 3 years instead of spending nearly $7mil on a 37 year old washed up defender I could be spending it on a young prospect that could help us get back to a cup final while you are only 33 and could still be playing at a high level.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 2 @ 5:32 PM ET
One additional (possible) advantage, Kesler is normally good to be injured for about half the year right? At least he wouldn't be blocking a good prospect.
- Chunk


If he is out the 2nd half of the year, you put him on LTIR, and it gives you cap room at the deadline. (Kane on LTIR allowed us to get Vermette, Timonen, Desjardins).
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jan 2 @ 5:33 PM ET
Thanks, I Am The Breadman, I enjoy reading your posts (as I do the majority of the board). I find the posters here the most knowledgeable of all the BlackHawks boards (I know a few of you post on multiple boards).

One thing I have noticed, is since Colliton, the no touch defense in front of the net is starting to go away (especially with Dahlstrom/Murphy). Man it infuriates me when the Hawks play swordfight with their sticks in front of the net instead of taking the man. Might be old school but seems like every other team in the league has their defense engage with the forwards in front of the net.

- LAHawk


Welcome LAHawk! Your point on the d-men engagement is shared by virtually everyone. A lot of us wish they would ratchet it up a bit more. One thing I'm really liking is that the whole team is contesting more pucks all over the ice.

The only big issue that I have (and maybe this is because we have a lot of young guys playing) they will get a bit gassed and stuck in their own zone after applying excessing pressure to the other team.
nickmo2699
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 01.06.2012

Jan 2 @ 5:36 PM ET
LONG time lurker, decided this year to start posting, especially after reading Justin's posts Used to post on one of the other boards that banned comments because of how toxic the board had become, which emanated from the bloggers themselves. I myself was told I had dementia by one of the bloggers because he didn't like that I commented that the Hawks at the time should trade Sharp (the bloggers favorite) instead of Crawford.

A little about me, played the game through college and beer leagues. Family/I had season tickets from the time I was born until I was transferred to Los Angeles in 1983.Still am a rabid fan and follow and watch all the games I can.

I am not an advanced stats kind of guy (being old), but more go by the eye test.

That said, if you want to see a tire fire of a franchise, just look at the LA Kings. They had 8 shots on goal against the VGK in the first 2 periods and were outshot by 30 for the game. Campbell literally stood on his head. Both LA and the Hawks have obviously fallen from being an elite hockey team, but all the Bowman detractors (I am meh on him, don't think he is the best, far from the worst), I think Mr. Riccochet said it best, he did no harm. Think if Bowman would of signed Kovalchuk to the contract Blake/Robitaille did over the summer, 35 yo $6.3 annual for 3 years NMC. Kings also have Phaneuf, Brown, Kopitar (all with no trade/movement clauses, Carter, Martinez all on the wrong side of 30, and have no cap space. So the Hawks slide is not alone, it's the hard cap system.

I would like to see a cap that is somewhat similar to the NBA, where you are not so penalized for success (veteran exemptions, home town player exemptions, etc.).

I would keep Keith unless the offer blows Stan away. I agree, Anisimov, Kruger, et. all should be shipped out for whatever, but I believe if you hold on to AA until the deadline, you might be able to eek out a 1st.

Hope this post isn't too boring, if so, I will go back to my lurker status.

- LAHawk


Good to have a new voice chime in! Welcome. As far as Keith, if it brings back an option to get a top 3 dman, I think you do it. Otherwise I am in the same boat as you.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Jan 2 @ 5:37 PM ET
Here is what I would tell Toews. I am trading one of the teammates you are closest to for maybe the NHL player you hate the most. But this is a business and we save nearly $14 mil in cap hit over two years (3 years from now). He can take some of your PK minutes and defensive zone faceoffs, so that will increase your 5v5 TOI, which will help your offensive numbers. I will do everything I can to flip Kesler this summer. It will be easier to flip Kesler with 3 years remaining on his contract than Seabs with 5 years remaining. At worst in 3 years instead of spending nearly $7mil on a 37 year old washed up defender I could be spending it on a young prospect that could help us get back to a cup final while you are only 33 and could still be playing at a high level.
- -Doh-


I get the reasoning, but the first 2 sentences are the most important to Toews, especially after Q being fired. It would hurt more than just him, I think. I believe he's core we need to move from.
riozzo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jan 2 @ 5:45 PM ET
Was wondering why Sam Fels sounded familiar. I definitely remember the Committed Indian but didn't visit it regularly, maybe once in a blue moon if someone else had shared a link to check out one of their articles.
- AEL_Fox

For that site it seems to me red font is assumed if its NOT sarcasm...
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Jan 2 @ 5:45 PM ET
LONG time lurker, decided this year to start posting, especially after reading Justin's posts Used to post on one of the other boards that banned comments because of how toxic the board had become, which emanated from the bloggers themselves. I myself was told I had dementia by one of the bloggers because he didn't like that I commented that the Hawks at the time should trade Sharp (the bloggers favorite) instead of Crawford.

A little about me, played the game through college and beer leagues. Family/I had season tickets from the time I was born until I was transferred to Los Angeles in 1983.Still am a rabid fan and follow and watch all the games I can.

I am not an advanced stats kind of guy (being old), but more go by the eye test.

That said, if you want to see a tire fire of a franchise, just look at the LA Kings. They had 8 shots on goal against the VGK in the first 2 periods and were outshot by 30 for the game. Campbell literally stood on his head. Both LA and the Hawks have obviously fallen from being an elite hockey team, but all the Bowman detractors (I am meh on him, don't think he is the best, far from the worst), I think Mr. Riccochet said it best, he did no harm. Think if Bowman would of signed Kovalchuk to the contract Blake/Robitaille did over the summer, 35 yo $6.3 annual for 3 years NMC. Kings also have Phaneuf, Brown, Kopitar (all with no trade/movement clauses, Carter, Martinez all on the wrong side of 30, and have no cap space. So the Hawks slide is not alone, it's the hard cap system.

I would like to see a cap that is somewhat similar to the NBA, where you are not so penalized for success (veteran exemptions, home town player exemptions, etc.).

I would keep Keith unless the offer blows Stan away. I agree, Anisimov, Kruger, et. all should be shipped out for whatever, but I believe if you hold on to AA until the deadline, you might be able to eek out a 1st.

Hope this post isn't too boring, if so, I will go back to my lurker status.

- LAHawk


Not boring at all!

Welcome from out of the shadows and please post more!
Budi1782
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 08.06.2013

Jan 2 @ 6:04 PM ET
Keith might have told Bowman that he would not mind being moved to a contender. Who could fault that. He is playing on a loser, which he is not used to. His longtime coach was fired. His new coach is younger than he is. The team is in at least a moderate rebuild.

I think he would get you at least a first round pick (probably a late 1st round pick if he goes to a contender).

His cap hit is moderate and cost controlled for 4 more years. At worst he is a very good 2nd pair dman. He still can eat a ton of minutes. He is in good shape, for his age. He may have lost a stride, but still is fairly quick. A change of scenery and a play off race could get him excited about the game again.

I would not mind keeping him for at least another year. That would buy some time for the prospects. But if he wants out I would accommodate him if the return is right.

- -Doh-


If the Hawks could get a 1st rounder for Hartman, you'd think they could at least get a 1st + a prospect and a legit player for Keith. I think there is still more value for him than most people think. But I'm definitely in the camp that I'd move him right now. His value is only going to decline, his attitude and effort sucks lately, and this team isn't making the playoffs this year, so it's really a wasted year with him. Get what you can and keep retooling/rebuilding.
Budi1782
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 08.06.2013

Jan 2 @ 6:08 PM ET
Never heard of this site before. Even after perusing it, doesn't seem like one to add to the rotation of sites to visit on a regular basis.

https://faxesfromuncledale.com/

- AEL_Fox


It's actually a decent site, when Sam Fels (the owner) writes the articles. He's usually spot on with his analysis and is actually funny to boot. McClure is a total jerk, and the rest of the people that write do a poor job of trying to imitate Fels and fail miserably.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jan 2 @ 7:07 PM ET
Here is what I would tell Toews. I am trading one of the teammates you are closest to for maybe the NHL player you hate the most. But this is a business and we save nearly $14 mil in cap hit over two years (3 years from now). He can take some of your PK minutes and defensive zone faceoffs, so that will increase your 5v5 TOI, which will help your offensive numbers. I will do everything I can to flip Kesler this summer. It will be easier to flip Kesler with 3 years remaining on his contract than Seabs with 5 years remaining. At worst in 3 years instead of spending nearly $7mil on a 37 year old washed up defender I could be spending it on a young prospect that could help us get back to a cup final while you are only 33 and could still be playing at a high level.
- -Doh-

I would do that but Anaheim wouldn't
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jan 2 @ 7:27 PM ET
One additional (possible) advantage, Kesler is normally good to be injured for about half the year right? At least he wouldn't be blocking a good prospect.
- Chunk


One of the reasons I proposed it, Kessler based on history much more likely to go on IR/LTIR than Seabs
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Jan 2 @ 7:29 PM ET
The one that McClure writes for
- LAHawk


formerly the committed indian with sam frels
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jan 2 @ 7:42 PM ET
Hate giving away Dmen when they are young. Especially ones with a booming shot, and talent to be PP QB.

You see it time and time again that they mature later. I don't think the return for him now is great, or that he has a lot of bargaining leverage.

I'd probably resign him to an affordable deal and let him get more time, even if that is top minutes in Rockford.

- vabeachbear


Looking more and more that defense will be an organIzational strength, at least on paper, but I'm with you on Forsling. Posted this at JJ's site concerning the 22 yr old:

IMO it’s waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to give up on Forsling. Kid is 22, played on 3 WJC teams for defenseman factory Sweden and has less than 100 NHL games. ……. Sure the eye test shows a kid who turns the puck over and makes some poor decisions but it also shows a KID with good size who is a ++skater. You just don’t give up on a physical package like that with his back class with less than 100 NHL games, you just don’t.

Hawks are going nowhere and the most important thing is how they allocate NHL minutes as a result. If they think the NHL minutes are stunting his development send him down, otherwise keep giving him those experience gaining minutes. At evens he’s been on the ice for 9 goals for and 10 against. So despite the eye test and ALL his underlying numbers he hasn’t hurt the club.

Develop the kid.
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Jan 2 @ 7:59 PM ET
Mitchell with big goal for Canada !!!!
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jan 2 @ 8:03 PM ET
Mitchell with big goal for Canada !!!!
- oldduffman


Sure was. This is a FIN like game, keep the score low, chances down, control the neutral zone and get a bounce in the 3rd. 1-0 CAN, 3 to go in the 2nd....... Ferraro also mentioned Hughes will dress for the Americans.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jan 2 @ 8:10 PM ET


Hope this post isn't too boring, if so, I will go back to my lurker status.

- LAHawk


Welcome to HB! Hope you jump in and give a thought............ I already like your take on Stan not doing harm this offseason. I am forever thankful he didn't do what 90% of GM's would do in his position of his job being in jeopardy by adding aging vets with term. ..... Assuming he keeps his job he's really set up going forward with 12-13 mil in cap space and blue chippers knocking on the door.

Now to get rid of Seabs contract that he should be fired for along with his allowing goaltending depth be so horrid last yr that it showed when Crow went down.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jan 2 @ 8:20 PM ET
Mitchell with big goal for Canada !!!!
- oldduffman


It was a nice play by him to jump in and grab that puck and bury it.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jan 2 @ 8:30 PM ET
Thanks, I Am The Breadman, I enjoy reading your posts (as I do the majority of the board). I find the posters here the most knowledgeable of all the BlackHawks boards (I know a few of you post on multiple boards).

One thing I have noticed, is since Colliton, the no touch defense in front of the net is starting to go away (especially with Dahlstrom/Murphy). Man it infuriates me when the Hawks play swordfight with their sticks in front of the net instead of taking the man. Might be old school but seems like every other team in the league has their defense engage with the forwards in front of the net.

- LAHawk


Have noticed that as well. On the other end, also seeing a few more guys than normal going to the net.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jan 2 @ 8:35 PM ET
I am putting you down for line of the year!
- riozzo


Only two days in, that's not saying much
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Jan 2 @ 8:38 PM ET
Have noticed that as well. On the other end, also seeing a few more guys than normal going to the net.
- HawkintheD


Sent you a pm, don't know if you saw it.
Hawkytalk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Frankfort, IL
Joined: 06.26.2012

Jan 2 @ 8:38 PM ET
Ask Toews first.....
- I Am The Breadman


Agreed
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