And I have 4 more names for you: Michael Dal Colle was drafted at 5, Jake Virtanen at 6 and Ritchie and Perlini at 10 and 12.

What's your point? Should we keep all our 4th round picks because Arvidsson was drafted there?

You named 17 players out of 950 plus players. That's an abysmal hit rate.

The draft is a crap shoot that really falls off after the first few picks. Yes, great players are found later in the first round and later in the draft, but they are the exceptions.
- Wetbandit1

Those were three draft classes...... so really 30 possible players and I named 17 so by my math that’s 57% success rate. The league is changing. The middle class is also getting fazed out if you haven’t noticed due to RFA’s getting huge deals. So when we are paying 60-70% of our cap to 5 players (Eichel, Dahlin, Skinner, Risto, Reinhart/Mitts) then you’re going to need those guys playing on rookie deals to make up the bottom half of the roster

Chicago and LA are battling out for Hughes right now becuase of this said problem. If you want to make a big splash go sign a big ticket free agent without giving up capital. The teams that have talent coming in waves playing on ELC’s will be the teams that are staying relevant for 5+ years. I’m going to be eagerly looking at how Tampa, Winnipeg, and Toronto weather their salary cap issues this offseason.

Those were three draft classes...... so really 30 possible players and I named 17 so by my math that’s 57% success rate. The league is changing. The middle class is also getting fazed out if you haven’t noticed due to RFA’s getting huge deals. So when we are paying 60-70% of our cap to 5 players (Eichel, Dahlin, Skinner, Risto, Reinhart/Mitts) then you’re going to need those guys playing on rookie deals to make up the bottom half of the roster

Chicago and LA are battling out for Hughes right now becuase of this said problem. If you want to make a big splash go sign a big ticket free agent without giving up capital. The teams that have talent coming in waves playing on ELC’s will be the teams that are staying relevant for 5+ years. I’m going to be eagerly looking at how Tampa, Winnipeg, and Toronto weather their salary cap issues this offseason.
- Pegullaville

57% of what? There were 190+ players taken after pick 20 for 5 drafts.

57% of what? There were 190+ players taken after pick 20 for 5 drafts.
- Wetbandit1

Those were players picked 20-30 in those respective drafts. The three first rounders we have in this years draft will be in the 11-30 range. So if we are trading one of the picks for a 26-27 year old player, whom will be needing a new contract in 1-2 years like a Couterier, then how do we know we aren’t sitting here 2 years from now saying “oh frank” we could of had a 20 year old ________ playing on Jack’s wing for 975K over a 29 year old Couts who we are now paying $8M a year until the guy is 36.

Those were players picked 20-30 in those respective drafts. The three first rounders we have in this years draft will be in the 11-30 range. So if we are trading one of the picks for a 26-27 year old player, whom will be needing a new contract in 1-2 years like a Couterier, then how do we know we aren’t sitting here 2 years from now saying “oh frank” we could of had a 20 year old ________ playing on Jack’s wing for 975K over a 29 year old Couts who we are now paying $8M a year until the guy is 36.
- Pegullaville

I'm not suggesting throwing them away a la Murray, but neither are they cast iron locks to be great players. The draft is a crap shoot, when you have 33% of your top 12 as busts that's not very good. I know that was a bit of an anomaly, but you brought up 2014 as some great draft. It certainly wasn't at the top.

Schmaltz, Fabbri, Kapanen, Pasternak, Kempe, McCann, Eriksson Ek, Boeser, Konecny, White, Beauvillier, Roslovic all selected past pick 20 since 2014. Max jones, Henrik borgstrom, Sam steel, Dennis Chowlowski, and our buddy Tage all selected in 2016 already starting to make an impact at the NHL level. 2017 remains to be seen, as well as 2018. The 2019 draft is probably the best draft since 2015. 2014 was regarded as the weakest draft in almost a decade yet look at the first 6 names on that list. League is getting younger and younger each year too.
- Pegullaville

A spot check suggests most of these players you list are in a range of 0.25 - 0.4 ppg. So is evan Rodrigues. My totally random spot check of random second rounders on the Carolina Hurricanes roster (a franchise chosen at random) says Martinook and Foegel have the same production numbers. Why not use the fist round asset to gain another potential core player and let the second rounders generate 0.3ppg

That's a domino.
- Wetbandit1

I stand corrected.

Those were players picked 20-30 in those respective drafts. The three first rounders we have in this years draft will be in the 11-30 range. So if we are trading one of the picks for a 26-27 year old player, whom will be needing a new contract in 1-2 years like a Couterier, then how do we know we aren’t sitting here 2 years from now saying “oh frank” we could of had a 20 year old ________ playing on Jack’s wing for 975K over a 29 year old Couts who we are now paying $8M a year until the guy is 36.
- Pegullaville

Couturier's contract runs through 2021-2022.

And I have 4 more names for you: Michael Dal Colle was drafted at 5, Jake Virtanen at 6 and Ritchie and Perlini at 10 and 12.

What's your point? Should we keep all our 4th round picks because Arvidsson was drafted there?

You named 17 players out of 950 plus players. That's an abysmal hit rate.

The draft is a crap shoot that really falls off after the first few picks. Yes, great players are found later in the first round and later in the draft, but they are the exceptions.
- Wetbandit1

This
Good post

I'm not suggesting throwing them away a la Murray, but neither are they cast iron locks to be great players. The draft is a crap shoot, when you have 33% of your top 12 as busts that's not very good. I know that was a bit of an anomaly, but you brought up 2014 as some great draft. It certainly wasn't at the top.
- Wetbandit1

Prospects are great.
Until they are not. IE) Bailey, Baptiste, Kassian, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, Zadorov. etc etc.

move a 1st round pick and two prospects for a young 2C like couts all day long.

Blues? - - ROR back, Blues retain 50% and he never talks to media again.
- IonSabres

Do you spend one of the firsts for Couturier +++?
- kingcong39

It would be first + for Couts, not the other way around.

I’d take 3 first rounders and keeping the farm intact and signing Nyquist and Dzingel over overpaying for anyone. If the Leafs are still one to two players away as you specified in your last reply to Bryant then we are 4-5 guys away along with Mittelstadt and Thompson developing further.
- Pegullaville

These 1st rounders are NOT a “sure thing”

It makes sense to move a pick for a player you KNOW is good & will be part of “the core”

To use your example:
Yeah, in 3 years we might have to pay Couturier 8mil per
In that case, he’s killing it at 2C for us
Or in 3 years we could draft a guy who we could still be waiting on like we are with Nylander

Yeah, yeah... different regimes
Ok
While Botts was AsstGM with Pitt,
these were their 1st round picks
2009- (30th) Simon despres- BUST
2010- (20th) beau bennett- BUST
2011- (23rd) joe morrow- BUST
2012- (8th) Derrick pouliot- BUST
(22nd) olli maatta- decent NHLer
2013- none, pick traded
2014- kasperi kapanen, traded
2015- none, pick traded
2016- none, pick traded

So...

Out of 9 potential 1st round picks,
ONLY 1 has helped Pitt at all be successful

They chose 1 who looks like he could be a good player (Kapanen), but that was FIVE YEARS AGO, and we still aren’t sure just what he will be

And they’ve obviously shown they know these late 1sts are very movable pieces


I understand your premise that we need to draft & develop well
But even teams that do that don’t have the type of success rate u seem to think we will

Botts was part of a Pitt organization that (at best) went 2 for 9 with their 1sts

No, we shouldn’t be trading picks for rentals
But if a 1st gets us a “core piece”
then that’s not too high a price
Heck...
it’s exactly what we’d hope that guy we’d have chose would become

Muzzin seems to be a part of the equation and not the final hurrah. Probably won't see the Leafs go all in until Matthews and Marner have new contracts is my guess.

They didn't lose anyone from the roster and keep their best two d prospects.

I just think Dubas tried to upgrade the D without selling the farm. Leafs are still a couple of years away from really going for it imo
- walshyleafsfan

I disagree. This year and next are the leafs best shots to take it.

Matthews is getting 11+ on his next deal. and Marner wont negotiate as it stands, IMO until he sees what Matthews gets.


It's only going to get harder.


If the Leafs do take it, it's all worth it.

Prospects are great.
Until they are not. IE) Bailey, Baptiste, Kassian, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, Zadorov. etc etc.

move a 1st round pick and two prospects for a young 2C like couts all day long.
- ImThatGuy

you are missing a bunch of flame outs


just heard the phones are busy, reaching out for a center, non rental

needs to be for the right price though, and a lot of research is being done

still looks like it may be an offseason move after skinner is extended but the right move would be made in a heartbeat if finalized


I heard the sharks pick is in play as is a few rochester players (nylander, guhle, smith)

Also got confirmation they are probably going 50/50 down the stretch in net and willing to give ullmark even more starts if the play is equal


flames calling us for a d man
bolts calling us for a bottom 6 forward
islanders, nucks and jets also looking to add, nothing mentioned on them regarding names

I still expect a lot of selling to happen assuming no more 10 game win streaks

you are missing a bunch of flame outs


just heard the phones are busy, reaching out for a center, non rental

needs to be for the right price though, and a lot of research is being done

still looks like it may be an offseason move after skinner is extended but the right move would be made in a heartbeat if finalized


I heard the sharks pick is in play as is a few rochester players (nylander, guhle, smith)

Also got confirmation they are probably going 50/50 down the stretch in net and willing to give ullmark even more starts if the play is equal


flames calling us for a d man
bolts calling us for a bottom 6 forward
islanders, nucks and jets also looking to add, nothing mentioned on them regarding names

I still expect a lot of selling to happen assuming no more 10 game win streaks
- homiedclown

If I were to move any first rounder it would be the Sharks pick. Also moving a couple of the Rochester guys makes sense. I think Guhle, Nylander and a 2nd rounder also can get us a 2nd line C we are looking for. It all depends on the player and the ultimate price we pay. I also think it’s a good idea to just keep the picks and draft becuase we aren’t going to be on the cup contender level for 2 years anyways and that’s the timeframe for one of those guys to take a spot on the roster.

If I were to move any first rounder it would be the Sharks pick. Also moving a couple of the Rochester guys makes sense. I think Guhle, Nylander and a 2nd rounder also can get us a 2nd line C we are looking for. It all depends on the player and the ultimate price we pay. I also think it’s a good idea to just keep the picks and draft becuase we aren’t going to be on the cup contender level for 2 years anyways and that’s the timeframe for one of those guys to take a spot on the roster.
- Pegullaville

They cant specifically move the Sharks or Blues pick because of conditions.

What they can say is, we will give you the lowest of the 2019 1st rd Draft picks.

They cant specifically move the Sharks or Blues pick because of conditions.

What they can say is, we will give you the lowest of the 2019 1st rd Draft picks.
- ImThatGuy

hence the sharks pick

It would be first + for Couts, not the other way around.
- ImThatGuy

That's what I meant. I just typed it badly.

I assume it would be something like a 1st round pick, Mittelstadt, and Guhle, or something along those lines.

They cant specifically move the Sharks or Blues pick because of conditions.

What they can say is, we will give you the lowest of the 2019 1st rd Draft picks.
- ImThatGuy

Sure they can. The conditions go with it, unless the other team demands a 1st in this year's draft.

I honestly can’t believe this is still a debate after what Murray did to the depth of this organization.

You can’t keep trading first round picks for players that cost a lot of $$.

We need cheap young talent that will be providing depth for the next few years.

I honestly can’t believe this is still a debate after what Murray did to the depth of this organization.

You can’t keep trading first round picks for players that cost a lot of $$.

We need cheap young talent that will be providing depth for the next few years.
- sbroads24

It's good they have 3 first round picks this year.
No one is saying Murray the entire system.

Its give a 1st round pick for a 2nd line center, because currently this team does not have one and its killing them.

a 1st round pick is great, 3-5 years from now. Unless you get that ~1% player.

These 1st rounders are NOT a “sure thing”

It makes sense to move a pick for a player you KNOW is good & will be part of “the core”

To use your example:
Yeah, in 3 years we might have to pay Couturier 8mil per
In that case, he’s killing it at 2C for us
Or in 3 years we could draft a guy who we could still be waiting on like we are with Nylander

Yeah, yeah... different regimes
Ok
While Botts was AsstGM with Pitt,
these were their 1st round picks
2009- (30th) Simon despres- BUST
2010- (20th) beau bennett- BUST
2011- (23rd) joe morrow- BUST
2012- (8th) Derrick pouliot- BUST
(22nd) olli maatta- decent NHLer
2013- none, pick traded
2014- kasperi kapanen, traded
2015- none, pick traded
2016- none, pick traded

So...

Out of 9 potential 1st round picks,
ONLY 1 has helped Pitt at all be successful

They chose 1 who looks like he could be a good player (Kapanen), but that was FIVE YEARS AGO, and we still aren’t sure just what he will be

And they’ve obviously shown they know these late 1sts are very movable pieces


I understand your premise that we need to draft & develop well
But even teams that do that don’t have the type of success rate u seem to think we will

Botts was part of a Pitt organization that (at best) went 2 for 9 with their 1sts

No, we shouldn’t be trading picks for rentals
But if a 1st gets us a “core piece”
then that’s not too high a price
Heck...
it’s exactly what we’d hope that guy we’d have chose would become
- jdfitz77

Mitts is already in the NHL in his draft + 2 season. Dahlin is already playing. Yes I give Botts credit because if he Murray’d us instead of being patient we probably end up picking 8th. Samuelsson, Pekar, and Laaksonen all have strong chances of being Sabres in 2-3 years time with only Samuelsson being just outside the first round. Davidsson will be a bottom 6 guy for us as well at one point or another. Comparing the Botts regime to prior regimes is like comparing apples to oranges. We also have a different mix of scouts then the ones he had in Pittsburgh and he ultimately makes the pick where Shero/Rutherford would have ultimately made the decision in Pittsburgh.

Mitts is already in the NHL in his draft + 2 season. Dahlin is already playing. Yes I give Botts credit because if he Murray’d us instead of being patient we probably end up picking 8th. Samuelsson, Pekar, and Laaksonen all have strong chances of being Sabres in 2-3 years time with only Samuelsson being just outside the first round. Davidsson will be a bottom 6 guy for us as well at one point or another. Comparing the Botts regime to prior regimes is like comparing apples to oranges.
- Pegullaville

Substitute those names with Bailey, Baptiste, Armia, Grigorenko, Guhle, Foligno, KAssian,Hodgson, Girgensons, Pysyk, McNabb, Adam, myers, Ennis.

All prospects who were "Sure fire" top 6/top 4 players for this team for a long time.

you are missing a bunch of flame outs


just heard the phones are busy, reaching out for a center, non rental

needs to be for the right price though, and a lot of research is being done

still looks like it may be an offseason move after skinner is extended but the right move would be made in a heartbeat if finalized


I heard the sharks pick is in play as is a few rochester players (nylander, guhle, smith)

Also got confirmation they are probably going 50/50 down the stretch in net and willing to give ullmark even more starts if the play is equal


flames calling us for a d man
bolts calling us for a bottom 6 forward
islanders, nucks and jets also looking to add, nothing mentioned on them regarding names

I still expect a lot of selling to happen assuming no more 10 game win streaks
- homiedclown

That all sounds pretty good to me

That's what I meant. I just typed it badly.

I assume it would be something like a 1st round pick, Mittelstadt, and Guhle, or something along those lines.
- kingcong39

i wouldn't do that.. i don't see how it makes us better in the long haul. i would have to swap middlingstats out.. but the 1st and guhle + sounds good