And the +/- is what? Relative to the averages of their math formula involving all those stats?
- EnzoD

Wins above replacement (WAR) was originally a baseball stat. It measures a player’s contribution to team wins relative to an ‘average’ player at the player’s position.

So, in the Blackhawk example, this season, Kane has contributed 2.5 wins to the Blackhawks, compared to an ‘average’ forward.

Admittedly, all these ‘fancy’ stats are harder for hockey than baseball. It’s much easier to quantify a baseball player’s hitting vs average and fielding vs average, because of the interconnectedness of hockey play.

If Brian Boyle can get a 2nd, then Anisimov should be able to get at least that. Really, that's the only trade I'd make, unless someone wanted Kunitz or Kruger.

I say just let the team roll. If they fall into the abyss in the next couple weeks, TRY to sell, but if they remain in, let the group take it to the end, win or lose. Absolutely DO NOT trade futures for a "one year shot".

Stan has had a good year w/ moves but I always worry the Ghost of Rundblad or Kimo will resurface.
- kwolf68

I go with the notion if someone approaches the Hawks with a trade that makes this team better in the near future, i say take it, even though you are on a winning streak, FO is playing with house money right now.

With a win in regulation tonight, the Blackhawks could move up as high as 4th in the WC race, depending on other results.

Games to watch

LAK . PHL
COL. WSH
ANA . OTT
STL . TB
DAL . NSH
EDM . MIN
CBJ . ARI

I really don't think Bowman will trade prospects. He can see the standings and the climb we have to make. Trading that now for "experience" is just out of the question. The team has been getting younger, and he's taking chances on former 1st's with upside. Not bad, some look good so far.

We aren't a cup team (would love to be proven wrong) but playoffs/bubble team might not be so crazy. A big game tonight, a win, continue the streak and move on to the next game. It's a confident team with a dangerous pp, the 2nd unit is contributing too. Maybe not a lot, but helpful. Secondary scoring is starting to show up more, not the same usual suspects. They are a much better team to watch than how they started.

It doesn't hurt when predictions come true, either ....

Madden and Buff were highlighted but my comment excluded them from your team appraisal. I don't have it wrong at all unless someone was hijacking your account that season.

Not sure why you think I wasted any time or energy to go back either. You've been making the same claim about this team ever since I've been reading here, and while you may not have called out those players specifically, it's been your assertion pretty much all along. For sure with the '13 team...SOFT.

I just think it's funny how you can wax poetic at all about a team you agonized over that entire season and counted out before the playoffs began. Now somehow in hindsight, those guys were "nasty".

Only took you 6 years to figure it out but good on you for coming around. Cheers!
- HawkintheD

You know, when one takes the time to actually read what I actually said, you would notice that by you admitting I never called out those individual players you agreed 100% with my post - those players played with an edge to their games that has incrementally dissappeared from this team’s DNA ever since. So much so now that they are physically the biggest pushovers in the NHL.

Any thought about AA to MIN with Koivu going down for the season? Or is that completely unrealistic given AAs NTC and potential value to MIN?
- Marlowe

I get wanting to move on from AA, but sending him to a division rival after climbing back into the "playoff race" (no matter how lame) sends a bad message IMO. It reminds me of St Louis sending Stasny to the Jets last year at the deadline before the Blues were dead and buried.

That said, AA's role has been diminished with Strome's emergence and if Fenton were to somehow overpay...

The Leafs situation reminds me of the Hawks of the 80s...Savard & company. That was a really, really good team. BUT, had to get through the dynasty Oilers in the West. Hawks had lots of skill. Good goaltending. And were probably among the top 3-4 teams in the entire league for a good 5-7 year stretch.
The Leafs will have to get by Tampa these next 5-7 years. It is a very similar situation. Leafs are among the top 3-4-5 teams in the entire league, but may go many years and not even get out of the East.
Kinda make you wish for a 1 vs 16 type format where anybody can meet anybody, and the Cup could be west vs west or east vs east. BUT, we will never see that so not worth mentioning (although I just did...lol).

Leafs will have quite the challenge to break their Cup drought, especially when the new contracts of Marner and Matthews are in full effect. Gonna be a really good team....but, will they be good ENOUGH!
- hawk35

Watch Bettman change the playoff format to this next year to make it easier for the Leafs if they don't win the cup this year.

I really don't think Bowman will trade prospects. He can see the standings and the climb we have to make. Trading that now for "experience" is just out of the question. The team has been getting younger, and he's taking chances on former 1st's with upside. Not bad, some look good so far.

We aren't a cup team (would love to be proven wrong) but playoffs/bubble team might not be so crazy. A big game tonight, a win, continue the streak and move on to the next game. It's a confident team with a dangerous pp, the 2nd unit is contributing too. Maybe not a lot, but helpful. Secondary scoring is starting to show up more, not the same usual suspects. They are a much better team to watch than how they started.

It doesn't hurt when predictions come true, either ....
- I Am The Breadman

Time to unload DeBrincat, his value will never be higher and Stan should have to worry about overpaying him in his next contract. Stan should be able to land a gritty stay at home d-man for the third pairing plus a mid-round (4-5) draft pick.

I really don't think Bowman will trade prospects. He can see the standings and the climb we have to make. Trading that now for "experience" is just out of the question. The team has been getting younger, and he's taking chances on former 1st's with upside. Not bad, some look good so far.

We aren't a cup team (would love to be proven wrong) but playoffs/bubble team might not be so crazy. A big game tonight, a win, continue the streak and move on to the next game. It's a confident team with a dangerous pp, the 2nd unit is contributing too. Maybe not a lot, but helpful. Secondary scoring is starting to show up more, not the same usual suspects. They are a much better team to watch than how they started.

It doesn't hurt when predictions come true, either ....
- I Am The Breadman

Breadman, since you nailed that 3rd period prediction the other night, what's your prediction for tonight's game?

I get wanting to move on from AA, but sending him to a division rival after climbing back into the "playoff race" (no matter how lame) sends a bad message IMO. It reminds me of St Louis sending Stasny to the Jets last year at the deadline before the Blues were dead and buried.

That said, AA's role has been diminished with Strome's emergence and if Fenton were to somehow overpay...
- Davewn

AA will be gone but I’ll be shocked if it’s before July 1st. They way his contract is constructed he’ll be a target for cash strapped teams after his signing bonus is paid.

I get wanting to move on from AA, but sending him to a division rival after climbing back into the "playoff race" (no matter how lame) sends a bad message IMO. It reminds me of St Louis sending Stasny to the Jets last year at the deadline before the Blues were dead and buried.

That said, AA's role has been diminished with Strome's emergence and if Fenton were to somehow overpay...
- Davewn

I am of the opposite school of thought Dave. I understand your position, but if the Hawks could get rid of the Cap hit, pick up a prospect or pick....and it made sense for the Hawks, then I could give a flying "Bleep" about Minny. Obviously for the same return I would trade outside the Division, or even the conference. But if Minny desperate because of the Koivu thing and you can get more from them.....Fire away....bye-bye AA!!!

The Leafs situation reminds me of the Hawks of the 80s...Savard & company. That was a really, really good team. BUT, had to get through the dynasty Oilers in the West. Hawks had lots of skill. Good goaltending. And were probably among the top 3-4 teams in the entire league for a good 5-7 year stretch.
The Leafs will have to get by Tampa these next 5-7 years. It is a very similar situation. Leafs are among the top 3-4-5 teams in the entire league, but may go many years and not even get out of the East.
Kinda make you wish for a 1 vs 16 type format where anybody can meet anybody, and the Cup could be west vs west or east vs east. BUT, we will never see that so not worth mentioning (although I just did...lol).

Leafs will have quite the challenge to break their Cup drought, especially when the new contracts of Marner and Matthews are in full effect. Gonna be a really good team....but, will they be good ENOUGH!
- hawk35

First off, I can't stand the Leafs. However they are building a very good club. As for comparing the Leafs to the 80s Blackhawks I don't see the similarity mainly because there isn't a dynasty in the NHL any more. The salary cap took care of that.

At the start of the season I picked Tampa to win it all. They have strength and depth everywhere I don't see any reason to change that prediction. Except should they meet the Leafs, the Leafs will give them a headache.

I don't have Winnipeg as a contender because of the poor coaching of Paul Maurice. The Jets under Maurice show poor discipline both in terms of on ice behaviour and subsequent penalty problems and they don't adhere to any system especially if they get behind.

Nashville seem to find ways to lose but I love that defense. Washington have a chance. Maybe Boston? Other than that I don't see any other cup contenders.

So with Kampf out tonight, what do you think the bottom 6 looks like?

Saad AA Hayden

Kunitz Kruger Perlini ?

Breadman, since you nailed that 3rd period prediction the other night, what's your prediction for tonight's game?
- boilermaker100

Just so I can get proven as a fraud. Hawks 4-3 ot win.

Time to unload DeBrincat, his value will never be higher and Stan should have to worry about overpaying him in his next contract. Stan should be able to land a gritty stay at home d-man for the third pairing plus a mid-round (4-5) draft pick.
- DarthKane

Similar to the Edmonton trade of Hall for Larsson? Maybe Edmonton will trade Larsson for ADB? Get er done Stan!

I get wanting to move on from AA, but sending him to a division rival after climbing back into the "playoff race" (no matter how lame) sends a bad message IMO. It reminds me of St Louis sending Stasny to the Jets last year at the deadline before the Blues were dead and buried.

That said, AA's role has been diminished with Strome's emergence and if Fenton were to somehow overpay...
- Davewn

I think you need to consider any offer for AA on its own merit. Moving his $4.5mil for the next 2 seasons is important. As it stands right now the Hawks can make a big offer to a FA forward or defender in the off season. If you move AA's contract you might have enough room to make a run at both.

Also if you move AA it gives you a chance to look at other players while the team is playing well in pressure situations (if the Hawks remain in the hunt for the last playoff spot). Maybe Perlini, Sikura, Nilsson, Highmore.

Any news on Kampf. He is looking better and better as the season moves on. He might not play huge minutes. But he is important. Strome is not a shut down center. Toews line cannot be a shut down line with Kane on the wing. You could build a shut down line around Kruger with AA on a wing and Kunitz. But it kind of jumbles up the bottom 6.

AA will be gone but I’ll be shocked if it’s before July 1st. They way his contract is constructed he’ll be a target for cash strapped teams after his signing bonus is paid.
- DarthKane

Agree. His bonus is $2mil on July 1st. But I could see the Hawks eating $2mil to get him off the books.

I'd do that in a heartbeat. That's the advantage of blueline depth from the youngsters and prospects: you can trade a few of them to upgrade at other positions without necessarily hurting that depth.
- AEL_Fox

Sure of course YOU do that but THEY would not. Nor would YOU if you wore their GM shoes.

I can foresee danger in loosing a prospect to expansion, so let's keep that possibility not overloked should we get in a bind.

Everyone has read that it takes dmen an rough estimate average 350 gp to hone their craft. How long it may take any particular dman prospect for Chicago in the next three years is quite debatable, however, due to the following factors (they may be viewed as obstackes to overcome):

* sheer amount of genuine prospects. They have been identified and re iewed here this blog. By the time each of them hopes to found their home (after three years) just know the desire to get each one to prime time NHL will be determined much by what side they play. It is possible someine else comes along to be in the mix. Maybe even an unknown player not within organizztion now or a surorise player slides in because rarely dies each of the top rated guys make the grade. Injuries, trades, desire to play NHL and not languish means maybe one or two leave and oh my gosh maybe a Snuggerud or Tuulola is still around.

* Not only is the side each plays critical to receiving an opportunity among a crowded field, but a similar style means choosing one to play on a first or second pair and another on a third pair. So whom benefits most by having the more experienced partner. The better partner making for a balanced pair. Ideally each pair contains an slick offensive capable and a stay at home larger or meaner whom woukd knock down or body check an opponent.

* Whom each prospect plays with after turning pro is significant. The team and the five man unit on the ice, not just your partner will influence quality time to develop or never get past the soft scrambled eggs stage. We do have perhaps too many whom have to get stronger and stop playing scarred to get hit.

Forsling has been referred to as not having much beyond a good shot. Actually last year he was called the best among even the Chicago NHL dmen in quick reaction at high rate of speed or as play develops. Yet with Forsling as with each prospect they come with areas of their game needing improvement. Let's figure Galvas as out if the equation however, until he signs.

We might wish to look into the crystal ball and see whether another team would trade a forward prospect to us for one our dmen prospects..

All we know for sure right now is that the shaping of a new defense is going to take a few years. At this time next season we should start to develop a clearer picture because right now the lens cap is a bit fuzzy.

I go with the notion if someone approaches the Hawks with a trade that makes this team better in the near future, i say take it, even though you are on a winning streak, FO is playing with house money right now.
- BetweenTheDots

I agree with you. That fits the pattern they are following lately. They aren't willing to mortgage the future in deals right now, but they will make a move to get better now.

Time to unload DeBrincat, his value will never be higher and Stan should have to worry about overpaying him in his next contract. Stan should be able to land a gritty stay at home d-man for the third pairing plus a mid-round (4-5) draft pick.
- DarthKane

Hahahaha, DK. Always trading Adb ...

So with Kampf out tonight, what do you think the bottom 6 looks like?

Saad AA Hayden

Kunitz Kruger Perlini ?
- SoftServe

You'll probably see some double shifting of Kane.

Wins above replacement (WAR) was originally a baseball stat. It measures a player’s contribution to team wins relative to an ‘average’ player at the player’s position.

So, in the Blackhawk example, this season, Kane has contributed 2.5 wins to the Blackhawks, compared to an ‘average’ forward.

Admittedly, all these ‘fancy’ stats are harder for hockey than baseball. It’s much easier to quantify a baseball player’s hitting vs average and fielding vs average, because of the interconnectedness of hockey play.
- scottak

Not an average player - a REPLACEMENT player - which means someone coming up from AAA ball - or, in hockey, the AHL.

Kane's 2.5 WAR means he is worth 2.5 wins more than the player who would replace him on the roster if he were to "disappear".

I know the WAR calculation is generally lower than you would expect for star players - my question arose because AdB had a higher WAR than Kane. Didn't (doesn't) make sense to me.

Just so I can get proven as a fraud. Hawks 4-3 ot win.


- I Am The Breadman

Ha, Johnny Carson/Carnac the Magnificent. Man, do I miss that show.

But we don't want the Canucks to pick up that point.

I get wanting to move on from AA, but sending him to a division rival after climbing back into the "playoff race" (no matter how lame) sends a bad message IMO. It reminds me of St Louis sending Stasny to the Jets last year at the deadline before the Blues were dead and buried.

That said, AA's role has been diminished with Strome's emergence and if Fenton were to somehow overpay...
- Davewn

Get the best deal you can to improve your team - whoever you have to deal with - for the short or long term.

Ha, Johnny Carson/Carnac the Magnificent. Man, do I miss that show.

But we don't want the Canucks to pick up that point.
- boilermaker100

Yeah, I know. Hopefully I'm wrong and we can just pick up the 2 points without any gifts.