5th I think. And it was even more of longshot then because only a lottery for the 1st pick. Now it's top 3 picks, and like last year when Carolina won it to move past a lot of teams to get #2, better chances to strike gold. Even if a team tanks to the worst ranking, they still can end up with the 4th pick.
- Popsghostly

Exactly right. The entire reason for the draft lottery is to prevent teams from tanking. How many times did AZ finish last and not get 1st overall?? Hawks should still get a future top line player as long as they draft in the top 10, which I expect they will.

Panarin, Stone, ADB, Kucherov, etc. are all exceptions to the rule. You want a high-probability impact talent? Get a very high draft pick.

You want guys who might pan out, might never make it to the NHL? Keep drafting in the late teens and twenties.

Jake Wise's season is over, and he was awful before he got hurt. I am not writing him off, but until proven otherwise I'm not considering him anywhere near ready.

To answer your question, no I'm not sure that any of the top 5 picks are going to be an elite forward. Are they much more likely than the other forwards in the draft? Yes. The same way that McDavid, Eichel, Draisaitl, Matthews, Laine, MacKinnon, Petterson, have all become impact players from the top 5.

These guys weren't found in Russia, or plucked from UFA status, or traded as some odd favor to the Hawks. They're drafted by a team that understands the extreme value of a top five pick.

A top five pick costs us nothing, as opposed to a trade or massive overpayment in UFA. The only thing it costs us is stupid pride during a down year.
- ObeseOprah

There are exceptions both ways. For every ADB, Aho, Barzal, etc. who have been drafted lower and excelled, there are high picks who have done nothing, ala Yakupov, Puljujarvi even Strome who was the #3 pick and was dealt for the #20 pick.

Yes, generally speaking, drafting in the top 5 should ensure you a decent player and one who will reach the NHL quicker than those drafted later but it is not assured.

If you can make the playoffs, you do so. Recent history has the Kings and Preds as the 8th seed both getting to the Cup, one winning, one losing.

If you decide to tank, do you tell Kane stop doing Kane things?
- LAHawk

No you put Forsberg in net. And who knows he might have taken another step so that's not even guaranteed

Exactly right. The entire reason for the draft lottery is to prevent teams from tanking. How many times did AZ finish last and not get 1st overall?? Hawks should still get a future top line player as long as they draft in the top 10, which I expect they will.
- EnzoD

Or they might go 1991 Northstars and barley make it into the playoffs and then go on a tear to the Cup Final.

Exactly right. The entire reason for the draft lottery is to prevent teams from tanking. How many times did AZ finish last and not get 1st overall?? Hawks should still get a future top line player as long as they draft in the top 10, which I expect they will.
- EnzoD

A better idea which COMPLETELY eliminates tanking:

(Not my words - from something called grantland.com, altho I don't think the idea is theirs either).

the proposal, which would eliminate the draft lottery and replace it with a system in which each of the 30 teams would pick in a specific first-round draft slot once — and exactly once — every 30 years. Each team would simply cycle through the 30 draft slots, year by year, in a predetermined order designed so that teams pick in different areas of the draft each year. Teams would know with 100 percent certainty in which draft slots they would pick every year, up to 30 years out from the start of every 30-year cycle. The practice of protecting picks would disappear; there would never be a Harrison Barnes–Golden State situation again, and it wouldn’t require a law degree to track ownership of every traded pick leaguewide.

The system is simpler to understand in pictorial form. Below is the wheel that outlines the order in which each team would cycle through the draft slots; the graphic highlights the top six slots in red to show that every team would be guaranteed one top-six pick every five seasons, and at least one top-12 pick in every four-year span:

Put another way: The team that gets the no. 1 pick in the very first year of this proposed system would draft in the following slots over the system’s first six seasons: 1st, 30th, 19th, 18th, 7th, 6th. Just follow the wheel around clockwise to see the entire 30-year pick cycle of each team, depending on their starting spoke in Year 1.

The system is designed to eliminate the link between being very bad and getting a high draft pick. There is no benefit at all to being bad under a wheel system like this. If you believe tanking is morally wrong, or that it hurts business by alienating fans and cutting into attendance, this is a system you could get behind.

So on a different topic, the Leafs will be in cap hell next year after signing Matthews at 11.6M AAV. If the cap goes up 3.5M they'll have 11 million in cap space to sign 8-9 players including Marner. Let's say $10M for him leaving 1M left.

Who do the Leafs move and, if Stan could swing a deal with Dubas who would you like to see on the Hawks?

With the talk of playoffs I thought I would see how the Hawks have done against their potential first round opponent - the 4 teams most likely to be the 2 W.C. division leaders - Calgary, San Jose, Winnipeg and Nashville. The Hawks are a combined 1-9 against those teams with a goal differential of 46-29. YIKES!

If you decide to tank, do you tell Kane stop doing Kane things?
- LAHawk

Parkey aims at posts when he kicks.
Kane can aim at posts when he shoots.

Or they might go 1991 Northstars and barley make it into the playoffs and then go on a tear to the Cup Final.
- z1990z

Ouch that hurt. Winning that President's trophy and losing to the Stars. We still made it the next year.

Guys this is not an argument for or against tanking, but looking at the reality.

Who is the happiest guy in the organization that the Hawks are 3 points out of a playoff spot? MCD! He has a team that will be fighting for a playoff spot and keep attendance in a better place if they stay in the race.

Who is someone that we have suspected having more control and input in the hockey decisions than he probable should? MCD! No way does this team tank on his watch or for any reason now that they have clawed their way into a possible playoff push. You think fans will be pleased that they forked their cash over for 19 or 88 to sit without injury so the team could be in a better draft position? No way and McD wouldn't be either. His job is the brand. Maintain and spread the brand. He is in Stan's office right now telling him we need to make the playoffs. Go get Panarin! Go get Duchene! Go get Gretzky!

We need to understand that this five game win streak and the struggles the Western Conf has had has made tanking unlikely with this clown in the position he is.

Sorry for ranting!

Ouch that hurt. Winning that President's trophy and losing to the Stars. We still made it the next year.
- Popsghostly

Don't I know it. Was at the stadium for the home games in that series. The point is you play to get in. Doesn't matter if you are a 1 seed or an 8. Anything can happen.

I am going to say it. It's time for the white flag. I've enjoyed this winning streak but this current team is not playoff caliber. I'll lose my mind if we sneak into the playoffs, get blown out in the first round and lose our chance at a top draft pick. Time to dump salaries, free up spots and look toward a rebuild.
- hankscorpio

Not gonna happen. These players aren't a bunch of losers like the tank nation on here.

Actually if you follow what the Cubs did, you need more draft picks. They figured out the % chance of a pick becoming a pro player was not in their favor, so they kept trading for other teams prospects and many of them, since you can't trade draft picks in baseball, and that's how they built that team
- BetweenTheDots

There are lots of ways to build championship teams. Tanking is only one way. Look at the Patriots. Did they tank? Red Sox? Golden State? Capitals?

Then look at teams with perennial early 1st round picks. Oilers, Sabres, Bulls, Bengals, Browns, Tigers, etc...

Draft well, smart signings, smart trades, good coaching, good player development, etc... can win championships too.

So on a different topic, the Leafs will be in cap hell next year after signing Matthews at 11.6M AAV. If the cap goes up 3.5M they'll have 11 million in cap space to sign 8-9 players including Marner. Let's say $10M for him leaving 1M left.

Who do the Leafs move and, if Stan could swing a deal with Dubas who would you like to see on the Hawks?
- boilermaker100

Offer sheet Kapanin at $4 million (second round draft choice), then either Toronto has to pay him or take the second rounder

So on a different topic, the Leafs will be in cap hell next year after signing Matthews at 11.6M AAV. If the cap goes up 3.5M they'll have 11 million in cap space to sign 8-9 players including Marner. Let's say $10M for him leaving 1M left.

Who do the Leafs move and, if Stan could swing a deal with Dubas who would you like to see on the Hawks?
- boilermaker100

I wonder if Dubas ever managed a checkbook before? I wonder if that's why Uncle Lou left, this smells a lot like Uncle Dales money management. Talk about strangling yourself

We need to stop talking about tanking. Tanking is not a thing in the NHL. It might be with the fans, but no one in any organization will think that way. Being sellers at the TDL does not mean tanking. Being buyers at the TDL does not mean playoff push.

So on a different topic, the Leafs will be in cap hell next year after signing Matthews at 11.6M AAV. If the cap goes up 3.5M they'll have 11 million in cap space to sign 8-9 players including Marner. Let's say $10M for him leaving 1M left.

Who do the Leafs move and, if Stan could swing a deal with Dubas who would you like to see on the Hawks?
- boilermaker100

Kappean vrana Stephenson and burokosky all will be rfa's in the offseason anyone of those i would do an offer sheet to. 4mill per season would only cost a 2nd plus those players are established players that would help the hawks next year.

Love the seasonal trend by Preds to bring guys in to help them get over the hump in the playoffs and it never working out

I don't think the addition of these guys gets you past a team like the Jets. They're just big, fast and can play.
- Hank3Henshaw

They have a parade planned on February 18th, President's (trophy) Day.

IIRC, the Hawks had like the 9th or 10th odds in the Lottery when they won the Paddy Kane sweepstakes...can someone verify this..I know they were 6+ at least in the lottery.
- EnzoD

I believe they tied for 5th/6th worst (with the Oilers). But the Oilers had 1 more win in regulation.

Chiarelli.

(mic drop)
- Return of the Roar

Chiarelli was only there for 3 years. Oilers have been drafting at the top of the draft for much longer than that.

The Oilers are one of the worst run organizations in all of professional sports. You pointing to them as the 'tank model' is pretty bad.

Teams that have tanked and succeeded:
-Leafs haven't won a cup yet but are consensus 'great'
-Penguins tanked for Crosby and Malkin, and have over a dozen years of winning to show for it
-The Sabres tanked, then tried to accelerate a rebuild, then tanked again. Now they're good and will be very good in the coming years (Multiple first rounders this draft, still have good prospects developing)
-Jets tanked in 2015-16, traded Ladd for a 1st, got Laine at 2nd overall, had Ehlers and Scheifele coming up, they had decent vets but knew they weren't a cup contender (Wheeler, Buff)
-Avalanche have tanked multiple years and received their entire top line out of top ten picks (MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen). They traded a very good player away for a first (Duchene) and that pick could be in the top 4 with how bad Ottawa is. They have other great top ten pick prospects on the way from their losing seasons (Jost, Makar)

All these teams at one point went into their season saying 'we can be a playoff team', but ended up tanking once the cup was out of the picture. The Leafs were quite clearly tanking from the second Lou showed up.

If you want game changing talent to arrive for cheap, you can either hit a homerun at the draft and find the Kucherov or Zetterburg or Debrincat. Or you can get a top draft pick (McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Laine, Kane).
- ObeseOprah

Fact of the matter is that there is not "one" way to build a team.

We can argue about how good Toronto is perceived, but would they be near as good if they didn't spend in FA to get Tavares?

For all the talent they have, both Buffalo and Colorado are outside the playoffs right now.

Nashville has a really good team and does not have many top 5 picks on the roster.

You also claim that these teams actually decided to tank. How was that accomplished? The Leafs were BAD when Lou showed up. They had some good drafts and made good signings to get where they are now.

A lot of good teams have a few top 5 picks and a lot of bad teams have a few top 5 picks.

Someone still needs to explain how a team actually tanks.

Fancy stats show KooKoo with a 55.1% corsi in 21:02 in ice time, did Manning ever come close to that with the Hawks? Stan's trade this year is like a hyena picking up the scraps and having a feast.

I mentioned this before. Gus is similar to Kempny. Played in the right spots, they can be very effective. They have weaknesses too, but the skill on the point working a PP is legit. Mobile with booming shots.
- z1990z

Really? I could be reading the stats wrong but it looks like Kempny does not have a PP goal or assist in his NHL career.

Guys this is not an argument for or against tanking, but looking at the reality.

Who is the happiest guy in the organization that the Hawks are 3 points out of a playoff spot? MCD! He has a team that will be fighting for a playoff spot and keep attendance in a better place if they stay in the race.

Who is someone that we have suspected having more control and input in the hockey decisions than he probable should? MCD! No way does this team tank on his watch or for any reason now that they have clawed their way into a possible playoff push. You think fans will be pleased that they forked their cash over for 19 or 88 to sit without injury so the team could be in a better draft position? No way and McD wouldn't be either. His job is the brand. Maintain and spread the brand. He is in Stan's office right now telling him we need to make the playoffs. Go get Panarin! Go get Duchene! Go get Gretzky!

We need to understand that this five game win streak and the struggles the Western Conf has had has made tanking unlikely with this clown in the position he is.

Sorry for ranting!
- nickmo2699

I think you overestimate McD's influence in hockey decisions.

They have a parade planned on February 18th, President's (trophy) Day.
- I Am The Breadman