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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Not-So-Bold Trade Deadline Predictions for Blackhawks
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Jere
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.13.2017

Feb 20 @ 11:51 AM ET
Don't understand why people keep saying Cat will get between 7.5-8..

Look at Forsberg or Pastarnak with similar numbers. Both of them got ~6 x6.

This is what I expect Debrincat to get. Hopefully 6.6 x 6...

- RedRevenge

6.6 x 6 = totally METAL!
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 20 @ 11:52 AM ET
I have liked Koekkoek as well but wanted to include him as their could be some unexpected clearance from Bowman from what I'm hearing.

The Hawks simply can't bring back the same defence and forwards as this year and think they can improve significantly.

- Justin Lowe


Not disagreeing, but look at the Islanders last year and this year. Basically the same defenders with a new coach, new system and new commitment. Worst to best goals against. 7th place to 1st place in their division.

I am not saying the Hawks are on that path. Nor am I saying they should not add a stud defender or shut down forwards. But they can greatly improve their D without a major personal overhaul.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 20 @ 11:52 AM ET
Two things-
Would offer sheet Kapanen because someone will.

Lot’s written on the Hawks man to man defence.
Does anyone have a couple of videos showing Hawks implementing said system?

- Colbyboy


If not offer sheet Kapanen - then maybe something like this:

Toronto’s cap situation next season:

Forwards (8): Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Gauthier – cap hit = $45M

D-men (5): Reilly, Zaitsev, Muzzin, Dermott, Holt – cap hit = $15M

Goalies (1): Anderson – cap hit = $5M

Nathan Horton IR: cap hit = $5M (for 1 more year)

That adds up to $70M and they still need to re-sign Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, resign/replace Lindhold and Ennis at forward, resign/replace Gardiner and Hainsey on D, and get a backup goalie.

They may be able to resign Marner for $9M, but probably $10M, Kapanen for $5M, but probably $6M, Johnsson for $3M, but probably $4M. So a conservative estimate to resign those 3 would be $17M, which now makes the running total $87M and they still need 2 more forwards to get to 13 on the roster so add another $2M for a couple “cheapie” forwards = $89m. Even if the cap ceiling is $83M – they’re $6M over and they don’t have a backup goalie and still need to replace Gardiner and Hainsey.

Trading Kadri ($4.5M) doesn’t get them there. Trading Johnsson ($3M?) doesn’t get them there. In other words, Toronto would have to trade 3 or more players off their roster in order to resign both Marner and Kapanen.

I would offer to take Horton’s contract off their hands as part of a trade package. That frees up $5.3M for them. It’s only 1 more year and the Hawks can swing that next season. Include Gustafsson in the trade which is a good replacement for Gardiner. Add in our 2020 1st round pick and in effect Kapanen becomes the 2020 1st round pick for us.

To Toronto: 2020 1st round pick and Gustafsson
To Chicago: Kapanen, Horton’s contract
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 20 @ 11:56 AM ET
I don't think it is so much the defense in the defensive zone, but this team's neutral zone defense is horrific. How many odd man rushes, or players just coming with speed that the defense has to back up and can't challenge at the blueline. The Hawks used to cause turnovers in the neutral zone and pounce on the attack, now it is the opposite. I think if you improve the defense in the neutral zone, the defensive zone will be much better.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Feb 20 @ 11:58 AM ET
If not offer sheet Kapanen - then maybe something like this:

Toronto’s cap situation next season:

Forwards (8): Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Gauthier – cap hit = $45M

D-men (5): Reilly, Zaitsev, Muzzin, Dermott, Holt – cap hit = $15M

Goalies (1): Anderson – cap hit = $5M

Nathan Horton IR: cap hit = $5M (for 1 more year)

That adds up to $70M and they still need to re-sign Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, resign/replace Lindhold and Ennis at forward, resign/replace Gardiner and Hainsey on D, and get a backup goalie.

They may be able to resign Marner for $9M, but probably $10M, Kapanen for $5M, but probably $6M, Johnsson for $3M, but probably $4M. So a conservative estimate to resign those 3 would be $17M, which now makes the running total $87M and they still need 2 more forwards to get to 13 on the roster so add another $2M for a couple “cheapie” forwards = $89m. Even if the cap ceiling is $83M – they’re $6M over and they don’t have a backup goalie and still need to replace Gardiner and Hainsey.

Trading Kadri ($4.5M) doesn’t get them there. Trading Johnsson ($3M?) doesn’t get them there. In other words, Toronto would have to trade 3 or more players off their roster in order to resign both Marner and Kapanen.

I would offer to take Horton’s contract off their hands as part of a trade package. That frees up $5.3M for them. It’s only 1 more year and the Hawks can swing that next season. Include Gustafsson in the trade which is a good replacement for Gardiner. Add in our 2020 1st round pick and in effect Kapanen becomes the 2020 1st round pick for us.

To Toronto: 2020 1st round pick and Gustafsson
To Chicago: Kapanen, Horton’s contract

- EbonyRaptor


Why help Toronto out this way when they are in cap hell. They will be over the barrell, so I wouldn't offer the first round pick. Throw in a Forsling type instead of the 1st.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 20 @ 12:02 PM ET
I don't think it is so much the defense in the defensive zone, but this team's neutral zone defense is horrific. How many odd man rushes, or players just coming with speed that the defense has to back up and can't challenge at the blueline. The Hawks used to cause turnovers in the neutral zone and pounce on the attack, now it is the opposite. I think if you improve the defense in the neutral zone, the defensive zone will be much better.
- LAHawk


Agree. Team Defense starts when you lose the puck, takes place in all 3 zones, and requires 6 player effort. It is a complicated thing, with multiple components. But you need a commitment to it and you need to raise its level of importance.
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Feb 20 @ 12:05 PM ET
Don't understand why people keep saying Cat will get between 7.5-8..

Look at Forsberg or Pastarnak with similar numbers. Both of them got ~6 x6.

This is what I expect Debrincat to get. Hopefully 6.6 x 6...

- RedRevenge


Another comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko (7.5 x 8)

I'll show entry level stats of these players before their contract extensions and compare them to ADB

Tarasenko: 66 Goals 135 points in 179 GP (0.37 GPG, 0.75 PPG)
Pastrnak: 59 Goals 123 points in 172 GP (0.34 GPG, 0.72 PPG)
Forsberg: 60 Goals 133 points in 182 GP (0.33 GPG, 0.73 PPG)
DeBrincat: 60 Goals 112 points in 142 GP (0.42 GPG, 0.79 PPG)


DeBrincat is a better pure goal scorer than all of those players and I could see him realistically getting anywhere from 5.5M to 8M per season.

Another more recent comparable would be William Nylander who signed a 6/45 contract and DeBrincat is a better player.
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Feb 20 @ 12:08 PM ET
Don't understand why people keep saying Cat will get between 7.5-8..

Look at Forsberg or Pastarnak with similar numbers. Both of them got ~6 x6.

This is what I expect Debrincat to get. Hopefully 6.6 x 6...

- RedRevenge

If he scores 40 he's gonna get more. The cap is higher that when those other two signed and they've never scored that much. It's how it goes when the cap rises.
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Feb 20 @ 12:10 PM ET
Two things-
Would offer sheet Kapanen because someone will.

Lot’s written on the Hawks man to man defence.
Does anyone have a couple of videos showing Hawks implementing said system?

- Colbyboy

Why would he sign with Chicago? And don't give me this to play with Kane bs either. It's all about money and a chance to win.
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Feb 20 @ 12:13 PM ET
If not offer sheet Kapanen - then maybe something like this:

Toronto’s cap situation next season:

Forwards (8): Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Gauthier – cap hit = $45M

D-men (5): Reilly, Zaitsev, Muzzin, Dermott, Holt – cap hit = $15M

Goalies (1): Anderson – cap hit = $5M

Nathan Horton IR: cap hit = $5M (for 1 more year)

That adds up to $70M and they still need to re-sign Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, resign/replace Lindhold and Ennis at forward, resign/replace Gardiner and Hainsey on D, and get a backup goalie.

They may be able to resign Marner for $9M, but probably $10M, Kapanen for $5M, but probably $6M, Johnsson for $3M, but probably $4M. So a conservative estimate to resign those 3 would be $17M, which now makes the running total $87M and they still need 2 more forwards to get to 13 on the roster so add another $2M for a couple “cheapie” forwards = $89m. Even if the cap ceiling is $83M – they’re $6M over and they don’t have a backup goalie and still need to replace Gardiner and Hainsey.

Trading Kadri ($4.5M) doesn’t get them there. Trading Johnsson ($3M?) doesn’t get them there. In other words, Toronto would have to trade 3 or more players off their roster in order to resign both Marner and Kapanen.

I would offer to take Horton’s contract off their hands as part of a trade package. That frees up $5.3M for them. It’s only 1 more year and the Hawks can swing that next season. Include Gustafsson in the trade which is a good replacement for Gardiner. Add in our 2020 1st round pick and in effect Kapanen becomes the 2020 1st round pick for us.

To Toronto: 2020 1st round pick and Gustafsson
To Chicago: Kapanen, Horton’s contract

- EbonyRaptor

Why would you add the first? Do you not remember the Bikell trade? Hawks didn't get any high pick back.
Colbyboy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Summerside , PEI
Joined: 12.14.2013

Feb 20 @ 12:16 PM ET
Why would he sign with Chicago? And don't give me this to play with Kane bs either. It's all about money and a chance to win.
- GPHawksfan


He will sign with the first team to offer him 5x 6

Not sure it’s the Hawks but it won’t be Toronto because they can’t afford the contract -

EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 20 @ 12:16 PM ET
Why help Toronto out this way when they are in cap hell. They will be over the barrell, so I wouldn't offer the first round pick. Throw in a Forsling type instead of the 1st.
- boilermaker100


Because we won't be the only team trying to wrangle Kapanen away from them so we need to be the most attractive offer so they make the trade with us. Horton's contract is not a problem for the Hawks because it will be off the books when DCat, Strome and others will need to be re-signed. Gustafsson is cheap next season but if he keeps scoring he won't be cheap to re-sign and at 26/27 he's pretty much proven he will never be a solid defender type d-man and with the young d-men coming online over the next few years the Hawks will have enough offensive PMD type d-men so Gustafsson is expendable.

Additionally, there are no solid d-men on the free agent market this summer - so spend that money on Horton's contract and then look to acquire a solid defensive d-man at the TDL next season of after the 2019/20 season.

Toews, Kane, DCat, Strome, Saad, Kahun and Kapanen would be a very good 7 top-9 forwards. Add in the 1st rounder from this coming draft and by the start of 2020/21 that should be 8 very good top-9 forwards. The 9th guy is possibly already under contract - Kurashev, Barratt, Enwistle, Kubalic, Hagel, Nordgren or others.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Feb 20 @ 12:18 PM ET
For starters they should move the following:
CC
AA
Kruger

Followed by off season:
Seabs (if you can move even with some retained I would do to it just to get it off the books)
Kunitzs

Pricey vets for a borderline team makes zero sense.

- Hawkster


AA will be more movable in the summer after they pay his $2m signing bonus and he no longer has a NTC. Crawford hasn’t even been medically cleared to play yet. Bottom line is there’s not many players on our team that contenders have any interest in.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Feb 20 @ 12:20 PM ET
I don't think he is going to get as much as people think. he is not good Defensivley and I just don't see him as a guy that somebody would offer sheet. around the league whos trade value would be higher? Kappen or Cat? its close and people are saying 4 mil on bridge deal for Kap.

would you trade AA for wennburg? I would. AA is probably the slightly better player but wennburg has more long term upside moving forward. plus with the way salaries are going a good 3rd lone center locked up thru all his 20's at 4.9 is not terrible. also AA is owed 3.5 the next 2 years and wennerg is 5.35. so for a team like Columbus saving the cash might be something they would want.
ikeane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Joined: 11.04.2005

Feb 20 @ 12:22 PM ET
sounds like Caps waived Smith-Pelley, not Jaskin
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 20 @ 12:30 PM ET
Why would he sign with Chicago? And don't give me this to play with Kane bs either. It's all about money and a chance to win.
- GPHawksfan


In the trade proposal I posted - it's a trade, not an offer sheet. The Hawks would own his RFA rights so his options are either sign with the Hawks or hold out.
holyJumpin_NL
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 10.29.2018

Feb 20 @ 12:32 PM ET
Why help Toronto out this way when they are in cap hell. They will be over the barrell, so I wouldn't offer the first round pick. Throw in a Forsling type instead of the 1st.
- boilermaker100
my thoughts too Boiler, definitely a deal to be made with leafs though
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 20 @ 12:33 PM ET
Why would you add the first? Do you not remember the Bikell trade? Hawks didn't get any high pick back.
- GPHawksfan


First, because he's worth it so it's not an overpayment for the Hawks. But the reality is that Toronto would probably have many suitors for Kapanen if they were entertaining trade offers and the Hawks would need to be the most attractive offer to get the trade.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 20 @ 12:33 PM ET
WOW Torts lit into Duclair yesterday, I can see the Swiss league for him next year
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Feb 20 @ 12:35 PM ET
sounds like Caps waived Smith-Pelley, not Jaskin
- ikeane


Not saying the hawks should claim Smith-Pelley off waivers, but he's a UFA after this season. How would he look on the Hawks bottom 6 next year?

Of course he may not be interested in signing with the Hawks after last year's incident.
holyJumpin_NL
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 10.29.2018

Feb 20 @ 12:35 PM ET
Another comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko (7.5 x 8)

I'll show entry level stats of these players before their contract extensions and compare them to ADB

Tarasenko: 66 Goals 135 points in 179 GP (0.37 GPG, 0.75 PPG)
Pastrnak: 59 Goals 123 points in 172 GP (0.34 GPG, 0.72 PPG)
Forsberg: 60 Goals 133 points in 182 GP (0.33 GPG, 0.73 PPG)
DeBrincat: 60 Goals 112 points in 142 GP (0.42 GPG, 0.79 PPG)


DeBrincat is a better pure goal scorer than all of those players and I could see him realistically getting anywhere from 5.5M to 8M per season.

Another more recent comparable would be William Nylander who signed a 6/45 contract and DeBrincat is a better player.

- Hawks_49
agree and Cat is on an upper trajectory, without Kane or Toews and another year to go on entry level and nylander is a great comparable, as you state
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 20 @ 12:37 PM ET
Not saying the hawks should claim Smith-Pelley off waivers, but he's a UFA after this season. How would he look on the Hawks bottom 6 next year?

Of course he may not be interested in signing with the Hawks after last year's incident.

- boilermaker100


Would rather keep Hayden
RedRevenge
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 04.18.2017

Feb 20 @ 12:38 PM ET
Another comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko (7.5 x 8)

I'll show entry level stats of these players before their contract extensions and compare them to ADB

Tarasenko: 66 Goals 135 points in 179 GP (0.37 GPG, 0.75 PPG)
Pastrnak: 59 Goals 123 points in 172 GP (0.34 GPG, 0.72 PPG)
Forsberg: 60 Goals 133 points in 182 GP (0.33 GPG, 0.73 PPG)
DeBrincat: 60 Goals 112 points in 142 GP (0.42 GPG, 0.79 PPG)


DeBrincat is a better pure goal scorer than all of those players and I could see him realistically getting anywhere from 5.5M to 8M per season.

Another more recent comparable would be William Nylander who signed a 6/45 contract and DeBrincat is a better player.

- Hawks_49


Remember that Tarasenko's contract was 7.5 for 8 years though. 2 more years on his contract and he already showed that he could produce in the playoffs.

Now that I think of it, the cap inflation may play a role in a larger Debrincat contract.

Edit: The Nylander contract will inflate Cats cost too. Probably around 7 million..
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Feb 20 @ 12:39 PM ET
WOW Torts lit into Duclair yesterday, I can see the Swiss league for him next year
- LAHawk


remember earlier this year, everyone was mad that Duclair was playing well, was scoring - now not so
333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Feb 20 @ 12:45 PM ET
Torts on Panarin missing last night's game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEBKIC2OT_U
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