Justin Lowe: Rollin' at the Wrong Time Why? Why did you wait so long to figure it out 2018-19 Chicago Blackhawks?

The Hawks have won 5 in a row and are winning games the way a playoff team would win; a solid 2-0 win in Montreal was the latest victory. During this stretch, they have outscored their opponents 21-10.

The Hawks are making a valiant push towards the playoffs that will end their regular season in 1 of 2 ways: 1) By some miracle, they make the playoffs and give it their best in Round #1 OR 2) They fall just short and completely mess up their draft position.

1st

Justin Lowe: Rollin' at the Wrong Time
Why? Why did you wait so long to figure it out 2018-19 Chicago Blackhawks?

The Hawks have won 5 in a row and are winning games the way a playoff team would win; a solid 2-0 win in Montreal was the latest victory. During this stretch, they have outscored their opponents 21-10.

The Hawks are making a valiant push towards the playoffs that will end their regular season in 1 of 2 ways: 1) By some miracle, they make the playoffs and give it their best in Round #1 OR 2) They fall just short and completely mess up their draft position.
- Justin Lowe

Good morning Ty. Thanks for the morning write up!

So say the Hawks do fall short in the playoff race and end up with a middle of the pack pick in the 12-15 range...anyone you like that you think will be there’?

While a top 5 pick would have been nice and who knows, maybe the Hawks pull a CAR, but, watching the team competing and playing meaningful games has been great...for this fan anyway.

For me the Schmaltz trade has turned into it’s own draft lottery of sorts. Strome looks to be a legit 2C for this team headed forward and this guy who snatched Perlini’s body should be a keeper as well.

I’m no prospects expert, but based on what I’ve read - from you and others mostly here and another place or two - there doesn’t seem to be much in your Rockford lineup that will be much help in Chicago in the future.

Of the forwards, I’m seeing maybe (MAYBE) Johnson, Fortin, Ejdsell would be more than Black Aces. Maybe Holland? Doesn’t look like anyone possibly top-9 here

Blueliners? Certainly Jokiharju, maybe Carlson....

The future is either already here, or in juniors, college, or Europe.

Am I missing anyone?

A couple things -

They are peaking at the right time - look at St. Louis. I think they peaked too soon - yes they are in the PO but they had their run already. Binnington has been figured out. See Delia.

Even if the Blackhawks finished with a top-3 draft position, with Bettman leading the lottery there is no way they would have stayed there. Better to have them learn how to win games now than tank and and have a pick that is 3 or worse.
Prediction - AA will score the winning goal that puts the Blackhawks in the PO.

I’m no prospects expert, but based on what I’ve read - from you and others mostly here and another place or two - there doesn’t seem to be much in your Rockford lineup that will be much help in Chicago in the future.

Of the forwards, I’m seeing maybe (MAYBE) Johnson, Fortin, Ejdsell would be more than Black Aces. Maybe Holland? Doesn’t look like anyone possibly top-9 here

Blueliners? Certainly Jokiharju, maybe Carlson....

The future is either already here, or in juniors, college, or Europe.

Am I missing anyone?
- StLBravesFan

On the forwards, like you said the future is already here with some interesting prospects in jrs, college or overseas.

While Kampf was here last year, Strome, Kahun, Perlini and Caggiula weren’t. So other than losing Schmaltz they appear to have picked up about 25% of their forward depth going forward to augment, 12, 19, 20 and 88.

Filling out a 3rd and 4th line doesn’t appear as daunting as the questions they had headed into this season.

happy to see the uptick in their play but they have been playing teams in big blob of meh or and bad like them...

their record vs the top 6 in WC and EC is well...really bad....

you can only play the games on the schedule so go hawks...

yes some improvement defensively but really not that much...a superhuman effort by craw vs the habs or they are again blown off the ice...

call me unimpressed...

Justin Lowe: Rollin' at the Wrong Time
Why? Why did you wait so long to figure it out 2018-19 Chicago Blackhawks?

The Hawks have won 5 in a row and are winning games the way a playoff team would win; a solid 2-0 win in Montreal was the latest victory. During this stretch, they have outscored their opponents 21-10.

The Hawks are making a valiant push towards the playoffs that will end their regular season in 1 of 2 ways: 1) By some miracle, they make the playoffs and give it their best in Round #1 OR 2) They fall just short and completely mess up their draft position.
- Justin Lowe

Great piece, TC. I laughed really hard at "department of swine." Hahaha!

The b-t-b Col games are the deciding factors. Last time they matched up was a let down, but with Landscum out ...

I love seeing the team come together, still holes in their overall 60 minute game, but the lines are coming together. Perlini could be a star of the week ... of the month ...

I’m no prospects expert, but based on what I’ve read - from you and others mostly here and another place or two - there doesn’t seem to be much in your Rockford lineup that will be much help in Chicago in the future.

Of the forwards, I’m seeing maybe (MAYBE) Johnson, Fortin, Ejdsell would be more than Black Aces. Maybe Holland? Doesn’t look like anyone possibly top-9 here

Blueliners? Certainly Jokiharju, maybe Carlson....

The future is either already here, or in juniors, college, or Europe.

Am I missing anyone?
- StLBravesFan

I'd add Highmore, if he stays healthy, he would have a shot to make the team. Probably bottom 6. Other than that, I agree with you. The world of tomorrow today as far as the hawks team we see.

Erik Gustafsson at forward? What could possibly go wrong?

Lazerus has article in the Athletic about this...TrueGrit's head will explode...

"If​ you’ve watched​ enough​ of​ the Blackhawks this season,​ the​ thought probably​ has​ crossed​ your​ mind​ at​ some point.

Maybe it​ happened​​ during one of Erik Gustafsson’s mad dashes through the neutral zone with the puck on a string. Or after he made one of those slick cross-slot one-timer feeds to Patrick Kane or Alex DeBrincat. Or maybe it was at the tail end of one of Gustafsson’s misadventures in his own end, caught out of position and turned inside-out by an on-rushing forward. Or, heck, maybe it popped into your head the last time you took a long look at the Blackhawks’ depth chart and contract situation and wondered just where all these dynamic young defensive prospects are going to fit in the next season or two.

What if the Blackhawks just made Gustafsson a forward?

Tempting, isn’t it? After all, what do the Blackhawks need the most? Another dynamic winger to flesh out the top nine, and some wiggle room on the back end for a rising prospect or a summer signing. Bumping Gustafsson from defenseman to forward could accomplish both of those things.

And you know who likes the idea? Erik Gustafsson.

“Oh, man, I’d love to play up there,” he said. “It’s fun to play up there.”

One problem, though.

“I can’t play,” he added with a laugh. “Not at this level. No way.”"


"Go around the Blackhawks dressing room and ask this question, and you’ll get a lot of furrowed brows, a lot of hemming and hawing, and a lot of shrugs. Oh, and a lot of jokes about how forwards can’t skate backward.

“I’ve seen some of our forwards skate backward,” Dahlstrom said. “I usually tell them to keep skating forward.”


Well, sorry, Erik, the Blackhawks won’t be converting you (or young Adam Boqvist, for that matter) to forward anytime soon. And even Gustafsson — who, like every player, dreams of being a 50-goal scorer and playing a glamour spot up front — knows that’s probably for the best.

“Nobody wants to be back in your own end all the time, it’s not fun,” he said, laughing. “But forward? No. I don’t think I could do it. And I don’t think anyone wants to see that.”

happy to see the uptick in their play but they have been playing teams in big blob of meh or and bad like them...

their record vs the top 6 in WC and EC is well...really bad....

you can only play the games on the schedule so go hawks...

yes some improvement defensively but really not that much...a superhuman effort by craw vs the habs or they are again blown off the ice...

call me unimpressed...
- bogiedoc

I’m impressed that - after seeing how they played into December, both before and after the coaching change- they are actually a bubble team today - beating the “meh” teams and struggling against the top teams.

I thought they were a bubble team last October, they became one, they are one - and it’s a step on the road to quality.

I’m ok with what’s happened this season - I expect a more solid playoff team next season (but not a true Cup contender) - and hopefully a step up after that.

I'd add Highmore, if he stays healthy, he would have a shot to make the team. Probably bottom 6. Other than that, I agree with you. The world of tomorrow today as far as the hawks team we see.
- I Am The Breadman

Yeah - forgot Highmore.

My thesis remains....

Yeah - forgot Highmore.

My thesis remains....
- StLBravesFan

I was agreeing with you, not a lot in the maybe crop of players.

Don't let Elbows know you're working on a thesis, he missed dissertation day and was pissed because no one told him.

I guess quotes aren't working - responding to Bogie's post...

How did they look against the Kings the other weekend?

Crawford looks really on now, but they gave up what 48 shots against the Habs. And we saw what happened when Corey left the other night...Delia got lit up.
The priority would be adding to the defense...but as several have pointed out what kind of dmen will be available UFAs in the offseason?

Do the Hawks continue to try to upgrade on offense and then let the kids develop on the backend? Or do you make a trade for a defenseman in the offseason. I'd really like to see them hang onto Saad who's game has looked much better here this spring, especially his defense. HawkintheD and I have debated this. I think we know McD wants the big splash with Panarin...but what's the likelyhood of that when you've got your own guys to resign coming up.

Perlini's play has been a nice surprise - will it continue - let's hope.

Van tonight - should win this one.

Justin Lowe: Rollin' at the Wrong Time
Why? Why did you wait so long to figure it out 2018-19 Chicago Blackhawks?

The Hawks have won 5 in a row and are winning games the way a playoff team would win; a solid 2-0 win in Montreal was the latest victory. During this stretch, they have outscored their opponents 21-10.

The Hawks are making a valiant push towards the playoffs that will end their regular season in 1 of 2 ways: 1) By some miracle, they make the playoffs and give it their best in Round #1 OR 2) They fall just short and completely mess up their draft position.
- Justin Lowe

Next 5 games are elimination games for the Hawks, they pretty much have to get 10 out of 10 points to be a playoff team

I was agreeing with you, not a lot in the maybe crop of players.

Don't let Elbows know you're working on a thesis, he missed dissertation day and was pissed because no one told him.
- I Am The Breadman

Elbows is always pissed...that’s what we love about him.

I guess quotes aren't working - responding to Bogie's post...

How did they look against the Kings the other weekend?

Crawford looks really on now, but they gave up what 48 shots against the Habs. And we saw what happened when Corey left the other night...Delia got lit up.
The priority would be adding to the defense...but as several have pointed out what kind of dmen will be available UFAs in the offseason?

Do the Hawks continue to try to upgrade on offense and then let the kids develop on the backend? Or do you make a trade for a defenseman in the offseason. I'd really like to see them hang onto Saad who's game has looked much better here this spring, especially his defense. HawkintheD and I have debated this. I think we know McD wants the big splash with Panarin...but what's the likelyhood of that when you've got your own guys to resign coming up.

Perlini's play has been a nice surprise - will it continue - let's hope.

Van tonight - should win this one.
- DK002

I do not see them moving Keith, Seabs, Murphy, Gus, or Joki. Ideally you find at least one top 4 defender to bridge the gap until the kids are ready (without rushing them). They need to see if they can trade for a solid defender that has a year or 2 left on their contract at a reasonable price. They will have to overpay. For the right guy I would consider our 2020 1st round pick (hopefully that will be a mid to late round pick), one of our young defensive prospects, plus something else (ideally AA, but could be a "b" level prospect or another mid round pick).

I also can see them moving one of the RFA dmen or not resigning one of the RFA dmen (Forsling, Koekkoek, Dahlstrom) this summer. However if they can sign them all at a cheap price one or more could be stashed in Rockford with out much cap effect (though they may need to clear waivers).

Elbows is always pissed...that’s what we love about him.
- Ogilthorpe2

Who?

I was agreeing with you, not a lot in the maybe crop of players.

Don't let Elbows know you're working on a thesis, he missed dissertation day and was pissed because no one told him.
- I Am The Breadman

No question about what you guys are saying, there isn't much to get excited about at forward in Rockford. Their best forwards are pretty much career AHL guys and there are just a few maybes with limited upside.

The only thing is that the Hawks can maybe fill a bit of the depth void from UFA, since there can be some okay bottom 6 options on the UFA market, but I wouldn't discount Bowman moving more D-men from the system to open a spot or two or young D and maybe gain a little more forward depth.

I guess quotes aren't working - responding to Bogie's post...

How did they look against the Kings the other weekend?

Crawford looks really on now, but they gave up what 48 shots against the Habs. And we saw what happened when Corey left the other night...Delia got lit up.
The priority would be adding to the defense...but as several have pointed out what kind of dmen will be available UFAs in the offseason?

Do the Hawks continue to try to upgrade on offense and then let the kids develop on the backend? Or do you make a trade for a defenseman in the offseason. I'd really like to see them hang onto Saad who's game has looked much better here this spring, especially his defense. HawkintheD and I have debated this. I think we know McD wants the big splash with Panarin...but what's the likelyhood of that when you've got your own guys to resign coming up.

Perlini's play has been a nice surprise - will it continue - let's hope.

Van tonight - should win this one.
- DK002

They should absolutely try to trade for defensive help, but they have to be smart about it. If you’re giving up assets like say, their upcoming mid-first rounder and/or a highly regarded prospect (Beaudin?) for a guy who can be a legit top 4 guy for 4-5 years then go for it. Those kind of trades involving true top 4 defenders are rare though, and they have to be careful to not give up too much of their recently rediscovered offensive prowess in the process.

Earlier in the year, Crawford was back, played decently well, but the team was giving up chances like a bunch of backyard kids who didn't know what defensive coverage means. It's no wonder that now that things are a bit more stable on the defensive side that their GAA takes an jump getting their #1 goalie back in the crease. No offense to Ward or Delia, but Crawford is the best goalie the Hawks have still. Despite the injuries, he doesn't look to be losing his game and might be the Hawks goalie for a while yet. If the Hawks can shore up a bit more and keep his bell from getting rung, we could see a real jump year over year in GAA and the win column.

Even that win against the Habs, Crawford had to make 48 saves and played great, but I feel like that was one of the easiest looking 40+ save shutouts. The team has an uphill battle and still probably won't make it, but still fun to watch.

They should absolutely try to trade for defensive help, but they have to be smart about it. If you’re giving up assets like say, their upcoming mid-first rounder and/or a highly regarded prospect (Beaudin?) for a guy who can be a legit top 4 guy for 4-5 years then go for it. Those kind of trades involving true top 4 defenders are rare though, and they have to be careful to not give up too much of their recently rediscovered offensive prowess in the process.
- Ogilthorpe2

Agree. If we are giving a 2020 1st round pick we should not have to include either Boqvist or Beaudin. We have enough other prospects and draft picks that we can add to make the deal interesting. Plus we could take back a bad contract if needed.

Earlier in the year, Crawford was back, played decently well, but the team was giving up chances like a bunch of backyard kids who didn't know what defensive coverage means. It's no wonder that now that things are a bit more stable on the defensive side that their GAA takes an jump getting their #1 goalie back in the crease. No offense to Ward or Delia, but Crawford is the best goalie the Hawks have still. Despite the injuries, he doesn't look to be losing his game and might be the Hawks goalie for a while yet. If the Hawks can shore up a bit more and keep his bell from getting rung, we could see a real jump year over year in GAA and the win column.

Even that win against the Habs, Crawford had to make 48 saves and played great, but I feel like that was one of the easiest looking 40+ save shutouts. The team has an uphill battle and still probably won't make it, but still fun to watch.
- breadbag

Agree on all counts.

Justin Lowe: Rollin' at the Wrong Time
Why? Why did you wait so long to figure it out 2018-19 Chicago Blackhawks?

The Hawks have won 5 in a row and are winning games the way a playoff team would win; a solid 2-0 win in Montreal was the latest victory. During this stretch, they have outscored their opponents 21-10.

The Hawks are making a valiant push towards the playoffs that will end their regular season in 1 of 2 ways: 1) By some miracle, they make the playoffs and give it their best in Round #1 OR 2) They fall just short and completely mess up their draft position.
- Justin Lowe

Great write-up as always JL.

I'm in the camp that wants to see the Hawks win no matter what, even if the moves the Hawks from drafting 5th to 12th. Even if the Hawks finished last there's no guarantee they'll get the first overall pick. There has been some big movement with the draft lottery the past couple years:

2018 - Carolina moved from 11th to 2nd
2017 - NJ moved from 5th to 1st, Philly moved from 13th to 2nd and Dallas 8th to 3rd
2016 - Winnipeg moved 6th to 2nd
2015 - Edmonton moved from 3rd to 1st

Not to mention there have been some solid pick-ups beyond the top 5 in recent years.

2017 - Jokiharju (29th)
2016 - Jost (10th), Chychrun (16th), DeBrincat (39th)
2015 - Rantanen (10th), Konnor (17th), Chabot (18th), Boeser (23rd)
2014 - Ehlers (9th), Tuch (18th), Pastrnak (25th)

So, ideally the young guys start building a winning environment for next season and the Hawks hit on their first round pick.

No question about what you guys are saying, there isn't much to get excited about at forward in Rockford. Their best forwards are pretty much career AHL guys and there are just a few maybes with limited upside.

The only thing is that the Hawks can maybe fill a bit of the depth void from UFA, since there can be some okay bottom 6 options on the UFA market, but I wouldn't discount Bowman moving more D-men from the system to open a spot or two or young D and maybe gain a little more forward depth.
- breadbag

Bowman does have Cap space now and will get additional space via expiring contracts (Kunitz, Ward, Kruger ) and by the League's upper limit increasing by $3-4M. So there will be room to sign players hopefully to short term deals.

I notice that Strome and Kahun have high bonus clauses which hopefully do not lead to bonus overage charges which have hampered us in the past. Anyone know if those bonuses are achievable by them?