Right. This is my point. The Sabres, above ANY OTHER team need to get obscenely lucky. I also wouldn’t call hitting a home run 1 out of 100 times luck, I’d call it a calculated bet that the more swings you take the chances of you hitting a home run increase. It’s not the same as the lottery. - sbroads24
There are gambling and investing theories that go very deep into this concept.
I don’t know what they say. - Der Kaiser
You don't throw away all your lotto tickets, but you do hedge your bets. A lot has to do with frequency. In the short term, low frequency, anything can happen, you can have awful runs, like say Skinner hitting post after post and nothing goes in, or a run of 20 straight blackjack losses despite playing perfect basic strategy and having a good true count. But, in the long run, it's always best to play the odds, and hoping to get lucky is certainly not that.
You do not just add the sums of the probabilities of independent events. Take a deck of cards, draw one and replace it. Do that 4 times. The odds of drawing at least 1 ace is not just adding 1/13 by itself 4 times for ~31%, not to bore you with the math, but it's 27% that you'll draw at least 1 ace. 4% might not seem like a lot, but it's huge. That's like the house edge on a really good payout slot machine, and you'll lose your shirt doing that.
Right. This is my point. The Sabres, above ANY OTHER team need to get obscenely lucky. I also wouldn’t call hitting a home run 1 out of 100 times luck, I’d call it a calculated bet that the more swings you take the chances of you hitting a home run increase. It’s not the same as the lottery. - sbroads24
What you’re talking about would be getting a re-do of the same pick till u get a home run
Obviously that doesn’t happen
Each pick is an independent swing of the bat
Let’s say u miss on pick 1
While u can’t “hit” unless u choose a 2nd time, etc
Picking a 2nd time doesn’t make u more likely to get it right
Same for picking a 3rd time, or a 4th,
and so on
Location: Rustmine Ramsum most exciting Sabres klugdragger since Taro Tsujimoto Joined: 07.01.2016
Mar 20 @ 12:28 AM ET
Just because you made a billion dollars in your lifetime does not make you a billionaire. Being a billionaire doesn't even mean you have a billion dollars - those liquid assets go a long way.
Just because you made a billion dollars in your lifetime does not make you a billionaire. Being a billionaire doesn't even mean you have a billion dollars - those liquid assets go a long way.
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL Joined: 03.10.2013
Mar 20 @ 8:00 AM ET
To the posters with good/excellent knowledge of Advanced Analytics, what are your top 5 metrics you would use, and why to best determine a player's Hockey IQ ?
I'm convinced some on our roster are H-IQ Challenged...
Bogo, Risto, Scandella, Larsson, etc.
And would appreciate input on how to gage.
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK! Joined: 07.27.2007
Mar 20 @ 8:09 AM ET
To the posters with good/excellent knowledge of Advanced Analytics, what are your top 5 metrics you would use, and why to best determine a player's Hockey IQ ?
I'm convinced some on our roster are H-IQ Challenged...
Bogo, Risto, Scandella, Larsson, etc.
And would appreciate input on how to gage. - IonSabres
Frank the Oilers. Stars won last night but we didn’t get any help there. Best case scenario at this point is that the Stars finish 3rd in the Central and the Blues finish in the 1st wild card spot. That could still lead to our top 20 pick.
To the posters with good/excellent knowledge of Advanced Analytics, what are your top 5 metrics you would use, and why to best determine a player's Hockey IQ ?
I'm convinced some on our roster are H-IQ Challenged...
Bogo, Risto, Scandella, Larsson, etc.
And would appreciate input on how to gage. - IonSabres
Im 46 and the only advanced analytics I need are my own two EYES.. Bogo does not bother me as much as other, Top 6 d guy that is going to make mistakes, Scandella, is horrible and should be traded, Risto is frustrating. When he plays with grit like the Tampa game a few weeks ago I could live with all the bonehead mistakes, however those games are far to apart. If you can trade him for offensive help I would in a heartbeat. Larsson is a perfect 4th line center and really who cares about a 4th liner? Right now we have 3 lines of 4th liners...
Im 46 and the only advanced analytics I need are my own two EYES.. Bogo does not bother me as much as other, Top 6 d guy that is going to make mistakes, Scandella, is horrible and should be traded, Risto is frustrating. When he plays with grit like the Tampa game a few weeks ago I could live with all the bonehead mistakes, however those games are far to apart. If you can trade him for offensive help I would in a heartbeat. Larsson is a perfect 4th line center and really who cares about a 4th liner? Right now we have 3 lines of 4th liners... - hehateme
So far, post of the day...I especially liked - and agree with - the bolded part.
- Naturally, the five teams whose draft picks have produced the most NHL points are also all teams that have won a Stanley Cup (or three) during the last 16 years (Pitts, Chi, Boston, Wash, Ana), while the worst-performing team (the Vancouver Canucks) has struggled for extended stretches of that period. You’ll notice, too, that the Canucks performed extremely poorly from 2009-2013, which coincides with the cliff the team hit shortly after — a cliff that has led them to their current rebuild.
- The Anaheim Ducks ended up at fifth in total points includes the knowledge that they picked, on average, six picks higher than the next-closest team and 30 picks higher than the San Jose Sharks (who remarkably emerged seventh in total points by their draftees despite drafting four picks lower than the next-closest team).
-From 2003-2010, just six team draft classes have produced zero points. They are: Arizona’s 2003 class, Calgary’s 2006 class, Vancouver’s 2007 and 2010 classes, and Montreal and Pittsburgh’s 2008 classes.
The teams most often in the red (the lower third in terms of points drafted among all 30 teams): the Canucks and the Leafs (eight times apiece in the first 11 years).
It’s pretty unbelievable that the Lightning went from being the least-successful team at the draft during the first third of the 16 years to the most successful during the middle third (four of five years which were spearheaded, likely not by coincidence, by Steve Yzerman) as well.
