Freddy is good. But I see this argument all the time. Ever notice that crappy teams have crappy goalies? Good teams have good goalies? Tampa has Vasilevskiy with a .930 sv%. Domingue who is a decent backup has a .908.

Andersen is .918 and Sparks is .903. Price is .917 and Niemi sucks.

The leafs are middle of the pack in terms of High Danger chances against, and a bit below average in scoring chances. I doubt they'd be that much different, but having a decent goalie you can trust changes your style of play to take more chances offensively.

The problem ultimately is that the Leafs style of play hinges on a defenseman who can skate, is smart, agile, and can make quick, crisp passes out of the zone.

We don't have many of those, obviously, because there aren't a lot of them going around - but one thing those defensemen usually have in common - they are all poop at playing defense, so I wouldn't be looking for miracles on the back-end.
- Monkeypunk

i dont know the answer to this, but has there been a team in the top 5 sv% miss the playoffs?

thanks a lot Lou


- senstroll

Rielly-Dermott
Muzzin-Z
Rosen-Liljegren

My prediction for the defense next season.

The Toronto media has created this idea Leafs are a bottom feeder without Freddie. It's not true at all.

Goaltending in this market gets overrated and D underrated.

- Aetherial

It's a funny comment given their last 2 1st rounds they've picked Dmen and Reilly was picked 5th overall.

i dont know the answer to this, but has there been a team in the top 5 sv% miss the playoffs?
- senstroll

That's why the Islanders are screwed next year. Those guys are never repeating those numbers again.

Rielly-Dermott
Muzzin-Z
Rosen-Liljegren

My prediction for the defense next season.
- GreatGigInTheSky

I have to think they'll bring in someone with experience on a decent contract. I like the idea of adding an Anton Stralman. Assuming, he can stay healthy.

It's a funny comment given their last 2 1st rounds they've picked Dmen and Reilly was picked 5th overall.
- RogerRoeper

I would also say that trading their first this year for a D-man counts toward that as well.

I would also say that trading their first this year for a D-man counts toward that as well.
- poopstash

He's the last person who should be commenting. They are 31st overall and don't have their 1st rounder.

Rielly-Dermott
Muzzin-Z
Rosen-Liljegren

My prediction for the defense next season.
- GreatGigInTheSky

the few prospect people I follow who watch the Marlies are not that high on Liljegren right now, and his progression is not what you hope this season.

I doubt he is promoted for next season

He's the last person who should be commenting. They are 31st overall and don't have their 1st rounder.
- RogerRoeper

The 1st rounder would make the rebuild too fast.

Re: Sandin/Lily

Stephen Burtch
‏ @SteveBurtch

I know people are high on Sandin and Liljegren given their point production relative to their age...

But if you look up their 5v5 GF% on @Prospect_Stats you will see Sandin is sitting at 40% and Liljegren is at 43%...

Sandin's GF% Rel is -7.9% and Liljegren's is -10%...


By way of comparison Dermott in his 19-20 year old season in 2016-17: 56.4% GF%, +2.82% GF% Rel

Byron Bader
‏ @Baderader
Replying to @SteveBurtch @Prospect_Stats

Nhle wise ... liljegren has had three straight 20 nhles in a row (adjusted) which doesnt bode well.

Sandin went from 35 to 47 ... 40+ before 19 is best probability of a star producer and a dman who makes the NHL.

Sorry, I don't buy that. They have a Norris contender, the best centres depth in the NHL and elite wingers.

Any goalie who provides average numbers we'd be in no problem.

Every year like clockwork Freddie is a .918 or .919 goalie. That's good, but not spectacular.

If we had the Isles goaltending we'd be in second place.
- RogerRoeper

Oh so if we had anothers mvp players, wed still be in the playoff. Ok
Hes the mvp, no question. This team sinks or swims based on him

The Toronto media has created this idea Leafs are a bottom feeder without Freddie. It's not true at all.

Goaltending in this market gets overrated and D underrated.
- RogerRoeper

Oh ffs.
The media hasnt created anything, trumpet.

That's why the Islanders are screwed next year. Those guys are never repeating those numbers again.
- RogerRoeper

Same was said about mcbackup.


And the vegas team.


We'll see

Some other wacky insights:

We have about a 1 in 3 chance of beating TB in the 2nd round.

TB has a 24% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

After that, there's a few teams at 9%:

Leafs
Penguins
Predators

Then a few at 8%:

Bruins
Sharks
Golden Knights

Yeah, don't ask me how they are generating these numbers.
- Atomic Wedgie

The energy that gets put into trying to predict sports with math is unfortunate.

The energy that gets put into trying to predict sports with math is unfortunate.
- Zezel

Lol

The energy that gets put into trying to predict sports with math is unfortunate.
- Zezel

It is kinda crazy if you think about...We have a 50% percent chance of beating Boston, and if we do, then we have a 50% chance of beating Tampa Bay.

i dont know the answer to this, but has there been a team in the top 5 sv% miss the playoffs?
- senstroll

I mean typically the Jack Adams goes along with high save percentage as well. I think you look at 2014-15 and Boston & Colorado who were tied for 5th in Sv% both missed the playoffs, but it's a rare thing.

You consider the basic math behind it, and that most teams would average around 32 shots per game; this year your range is 28 - 35. If the average save percentage is .910, then on average that's 2.88 goals against / game. A guy like Vasilevskiy would be around 2.24 using averages, and Andersen would be around 2.62. And these, right now, are 2 very good goalies.

Melnyk's comments enhance my enjoyment

Haha, no comment. The funny part is watching Marincin
- Garnie

What about the 2 studs on the Marlies?

Melnyk's commence enhance my enjoyment
- Zezel

Melnyk: The Leafs forgot to rebuild their defense.

Dubas:

I have to think they'll bring in someone with experience on a decent contract. I like the idea of adding an Anton Stralman. Assuming, he can stay healthy.
- PatC80

I think they'll only bring a guy in if they can trade Z. Which I think there's a possibility they do.

I'm not a fan of Stralman at all. But if he comes cheap, I wouldn't be against it.

Oh so if we had anothers mvp players, wed still be in the playoff. Ok
Hes the mvp, no question. This team sinks or swims based on him
- Fakepartofme

If they had another goalie with a .915-920 save %, they'd be fine. You can say that about a lot of teams.

Freddie is no superstar goalie.

Melnyk: The Leafs forgot to rebuild their defense.

Dubas:



- PatC80

Where to start...Phaneuf with no salary retained. Just to start. An amuse bouche.