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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Islanders perceived strengths don't compare favorably to Penguins
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Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:13 PM ET
Per PPG these were the practice lines. Unsure of course if Sully is using gamesmanship, which he does at times,ZAR but I'm going to give a few thoughts anyways:
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
McCann-Malkin-Hornqvist
Simon-Bjugstad-Phil
Blueger-Cullen-Wilson/ZAR

Johnson-Letang
Maatta-Schultz
Pettersson-Gudbranson
Dumoulin-Trotman

Much as the third line has dominated, could see Sully making this change for offense. Malkin had a much better stats with Hornqvist then Kessel last year as it changes his game and Kessel should add more finish to the third while they should still control possession. Not what I'd do, but I'd be willing to look, mostly because I'm not a huge fan of Geno and Phil together.

Could JJ playing with Letang mean he's out if Dumoulin returns and Maatta us reunited with Schultz. That's huge if true!
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:15 PM ET
I would guess that those 40 point 2nd line guys are getting significantly more PP time than a guy like Simon which is why I use 5v5 scoring as a barometer. 2nd line wingers usually top out at 30-32 points at 5v5.
- j.boyd919

Tangent: this also illustrates how (frank)ing incredible of a season Jake Guentzel had. If the NHL was actually going to Beijing, I would be all on board the Guentzel should be an Olympian train.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 8 @ 3:16 PM ET
Per PPG these were the practice lines. Unsure of course if Sully is using gamesmanship, which he does at times,ZAR but I'm going to give a few thoughts anyways:
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
McCann-Malkin-Hornqvist
Simon-Bjugstad-Phil
Blueger-Cullen-Wilson/ZAR

Johnson-Letang
Maatta-Schultz
Pettersson-Gudbranson
Dumoulin-Trotman

Much as the third line has dominated, could see Sully making this change for offense. Malkin had a much better stats with Hornqvist then Kessel last year as it changes his game and Kessel should add more finish to the third while they should still control possession. Not what I'd do, but I'd be willing to look, mostly because I'm not a huge fan of Geno and Phil together.

Could JJ playing with Letang mean he's out if Dumoulin returns and Maatta us reunited with Schultz. That's huge if true!

- Tojo.


I got a semi chub if that last sentence is true.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:16 PM ET
Per PPG these were the practice lines. Unsure of course if Sully is using gamesmanship, which he does at times,ZAR but I'm going to give a few thoughts anyways:
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
McCann-Malkin-Hornqvist
Simon-Bjugstad-Phil
Blueger-Cullen-Wilson/ZAR

Johnson-Letang
Maatta-Schultz
Pettersson-Gudbranson
Dumoulin-Trotman

Much as the third line has dominated, could see Sully making this change for offense. Malkin had a much better stats with Hornqvist then Kessel last year as it changes his game and Kessel should add more finish to the third while they should still control possession. Not what I'd do, but I'd be willing to look, mostly because I'm not a huge fan of Geno and Phil together.

Could JJ playing with Letang mean he's out if Dumoulin returns and Maatta us reunited with Schultz. That's huge if true!

- Tojo.

Dude those defensive pairings are super intriguing. This would definitely hint towards a Johnson scratching...

EDIT: I think the 2nd and 3rd line revert within the first game. Sullivan has already tried breaking that Bjugstad unit up and was forced to go back to it because they were just simply too good.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 8 @ 3:17 PM ET
Tangent: this also illustrates how (frank)ing incredible of a season Jake Guentzel had. If the NHL was actually going to Beijing, I would be all on board the Guentzel should be an Olympian train.
- Victoro311


Guentzel is a (frank)ing stud. Remember those retards saying that contract was iffy? They’ve been hiding in the shadows of their bridge for quite some time.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:18 PM ET
Guentzel is a (frank)ing stud. Remember those retards saying that contract was iffy? They’ve been hiding in the shadows of their bridge for quite some time.
- j.boyd919

For the sake of full transparency, I said it wasn't a value contract and was pretty average market value for if Guentzel were a UFA. That was obviously wrong haha.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:20 PM ET
Per PPG these were the practice lines. Unsure of course if Sully is using gamesmanship, which he does at times,ZAR but I'm going to give a few thoughts anyways:
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
McCann-Malkin-Hornqvist
Simon-Bjugstad-Phil
Blueger-Cullen-Wilson/ZAR

Johnson-Letang
Maatta-Schultz
Pettersson-Gudbranson
Dumoulin-Trotman

Much as the third line has dominated, could see Sully making this change for offense. Malkin had a much better stats with Hornqvist then Kessel last year as it changes his game and Kessel should add more finish to the third while they should still control possession. Not what I'd do, but I'd be willing to look, mostly because I'm not a huge fan of Geno and Phil together.

Could JJ playing with Letang mean he's out if Dumoulin returns and Maatta us reunited with Schultz. That's huge if true!

- Tojo.



I felt sick for a moment seeing JJ on the first pairing...then reading your concept I feel much better.

I dont like changing the 3rd line. That line was such a (frank)ing beast line... just have Rust and Kessel with Malkin like in the past and give McCann back to Sid and Jake.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:21 PM ET
For the sake of full transparency, I said it wasn't a value contract and was pretty average market value for if Guentzel were a UFA. That was obviously wrong haha.
- Victoro311


It was a steal for his postseasons, but a smidge high for his regular seasons at that time.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 8 @ 3:23 PM ET
For the sake of full transparency, I said it wasn't a value contract and was pretty average market value for if Guentzel were a UFA. That was obviously wrong haha.
- Victoro311


To be fair that’s hope this isn’t an outlier but I think he’s a smart enough player to hover around 30-35 goals on a regular basis and if they eventually fade Horny out of the 1PP he could hit 40-45.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:23 PM ET
I would guess that those 40 point 2nd line guys are getting significantly more PP time than a guy like Simon which is why I use 5v5 scoring as a barometer. 2nd line wingers usually top out at 30-32 points at 5v5.
- j.boyd919

When they're winning, Pens have had a lot of guys put up higher ES points: Duper, Staal's line, Rust, Sheary, Bonino, and of course Guentzel etc. Hagelin was other than HBK was an exception and Simon sort of fills that role at ES.

So my bars are 50 ES for top line guys/talent, 40 for top 6, and 30 for 3rd line. Probably arbitrary, so Simon for the year is right about there but since February has dried up.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:27 PM ET
Tangent: this also illustrates how (frank)ing incredible of a season Jake Guentzel had. If the NHL was actually going to Beijing, I would be all on board the Guentzel should be an Olympian train.
- Victoro311

Jake's been one of the best players in the league at even strength. If he had decent PP production, he'd have broken 90 points easily. Might be hard to keep up that pace at ES, but think he'll stay worth the contract.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:31 PM ET
Jake's been one of the best players in the league at even strength. If he had decent PP production, he'd have broken 90 points easily. Might be hard to keep up that pace at ES, but think he'll stay worth the contract.
- Tojo.


Well, Jake not relying on the power play also shows to a higher overall talent than a player with the same points and big PP time. Also since he gets the net front spot, far less time getting cross checked in the back.
burgh4life87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.22.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:41 PM ET
To be fair that’s hope this isn’t an outlier but I think he’s a smart enough player to hover around 30-35 goals on a regular basis and if they eventually fade Horny out of the 1PP he could hit 40-45.
- j.boyd919

TBH he should have faded him out in January. He is clearly the superior player.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 8 @ 3:46 PM ET
TBH he should have faded him out in January. He is clearly the superior player.
- burgh4life87


I would agree but there are some stats that convey otherwise showing how much more successful the PP is with Horny over G. I think retooling the PP in the offseason with G in the bumper slot could be in the cards though.
martox
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Stockholm - "Nights when we don't have our A-game, we better have our A-commitment & A-effort."
Joined: 09.25.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:47 PM ET
Man...you're supposed to be bashing Crosby and the Penguins for being sucky and saying they have no chance.
- MattStrat

nah I support the pens. (frank) crosby though. He wouldn't be able to play in a beer league.
martox
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Stockholm - "Nights when we don't have our A-game, we better have our A-commitment & A-effort."
Joined: 09.25.2014

Apr 8 @ 3:48 PM ET
What does their teams from the 90s or 2000s have to do with this year?

I don't believe they are that strong a team this year, so I do not think they will win the series against us. I dont factor in the prior 25 years, because that's silly.

- Guile

I was trying to say that they don't have playoff experience as of late.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 8 @ 3:49 PM ET
I would agree but there are some stats that convey otherwise showing how much more successful the PP is with Horny over G. I think retooling the PP in the offseason with G in the bumper slot could be in the cards though.
- j.boyd919


The best PP doesn't just mean throw 5 good players out there, it means find 5 players that work the best in the manpower situation. Sometimes, even if one player doesn't appear to be contributing as much as another player, he may be doing something that just meshes with what the other players are doing better than another player.

I would agree that Guentzel is a better player than Hornqvist. But for whatever reason, the PP has been better with Hornqvist as opposed to Guentzel.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 8 @ 3:51 PM ET
I was trying to say that they don't have playoff experience as of late.
- martox


Well if the Penguins were playing against Alexei Yashin and Mark Parrish, the last 25 years would be relevant.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 8 @ 3:51 PM ET
The best PP doesn't just mean throw 5 good players out there, it means find 5 players that work the best in the manpower situation. Sometimes, even if one player doesn't appear to be contributing as much as another player, he may be doing something that just meshes with what the other players are doing better than another player.

I would agree that Guentzel is a better player than Hornqvist. But for whatever reason, the PP has been better with Hornqvist as opposed to Guentzel.

- jmatchett383


Yep.
pensfan024
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: somewhere in, VA
Joined: 09.25.2012

Apr 8 @ 4:12 PM ET
Also Trotzteams are going to clog the “high danger” area like crazy with sticks and bodies. It’s just not a good matchup, rather go into a track meet against Tampa.
- Grinder47



One too many also's. You've been disqualified!
burgh4life87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.22.2014

Apr 8 @ 4:21 PM ET
I would agree but there are some stats that convey otherwise showing how much more successful the PP is with Horny over G. I think retooling the PP in the offseason with G in the bumper slot could be in the cards though.
- j.boyd919

It does. In 46 minutes on 5v4pp Jake, Sid, Geno, and Letang have 5 goals for to 4 shorthanded.
In 100 minutes, Horny and the big 4 have 19 goals for and 6 shorties.
Interestingly, Jake on the 5v4pp without the big 4 has a 7 goals for to 1 against. Via natural stat trick. Maybe hes better running his own pp
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Apr 8 @ 4:23 PM ET
The best PP doesn't just mean throw 5 good players out there, it means find 5 players that work the best in the manpower situation. Sometimes, even if one player doesn't appear to be contributing as much as another player, he may be doing something that just meshes with what the other players are doing better than another player.

I would agree that Guentzel is a better player than Hornqvist. But for whatever reason, the PP has been better with Hornqvist as opposed to Guentzel.

- jmatchett383

Agree and reason is simple: the goalie is less likely to see the puck with Hornqvist battling a defenseman in front. Jake is great at deflections, but there are few better than Hornqvist at screening the goalie.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 8 @ 4:27 PM ET
It does. In 46 minutes on 5v4pp Jake, Sid, Geno, and Letang have 5 goals for to 4 shorthanded.
In 100 minutes, Horny and the big 4 have 19 goals for and 6 shorties.
Interestingly, Jake on the 5v4pp without the big 4 has a 7 goals for to 1 against. Via natural stat trick. Maybe hes better running his own pp

- burgh4life87


Well he definitely plays a different spot on the 2PP. I’m pretty sure he’s working the half wall in 2PP whereas on 1PP he’s gonna be net front so he’s gonna get less touches on the puck as he’s there to screen the tendy while the rest of the guys pass around for an open shot. In the off season I’d like to see them replace Horny with Guentzel and put Sid on Phil’s side of the ice so Sid, Phil, and Jake can work the triangle over there and open the Geno Bomb up on the other side.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Apr 8 @ 4:40 PM ET
Bit of a smaller sample size, I know, but which pair has been better?

Dumo-Trots

or

JJ -Schu?

You just know deep inside that its going to be JJ- Schultz on that 2nd f'n pair...at least to start.

What I want to know is if that advanced stat numbers guy Ventura is still on the Pens payroll, why in the (frank) isn't he telling them to avoid that second pairing like the plague?...or if he is, why arnt they listening? or, if they are hearing him and not acting on the advice, then why is he on the payroll?
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Apr 8 @ 4:43 PM ET
Bit of a smaller sample size, I know, but which pair has been better?

Dumo-Trots

or

JJ -Schu?

You just know deep inside that its going to be JJ- Schultz on that 2nd f'n pair...at least to start.

What I want to know is if that advanced stat numbers guy Ventura is still on the Pens payroll, why in the (frank) isn't he telling them to avoid that second pairing like the plague?...or if he is, why arnt they listening? or, if they are hearing him and not acting on the advice, then why is he on the payroll?

- MattStrat

To be fair, we've all been assuming they will stick with JJ-Schultz, and all the beat writers seem certain, but it hasn't actually happened yet nor to the best of my knowledge has Sullivan committed to it.
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