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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Year-End Mailbag
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LaheysBRandy
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.28.2015

Apr 12 @ 11:12 AM ET
Regarding Crawford, is it possible that there has been too big of an overreaction to his health problems? Yes, it is unnerving how much time he missed last year, but I really still don’t feel like I have a good explanation for that injury. After his concussion this year, he returned after not too much time and continued to play at a very high level at the end of the year. Maybe we are too quick to write off Crawford, and he still has more than one good year left? That would go a long way in the hawks pursuit of the cup over the next 4 years.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 12 @ 11:13 AM ET
It's kind of a moot discussion because there is no chance Marner doesn't remain a Leaf but a known quantity who comes onto the team as the top player, sorry Kane, it would be hard not to make the deal for 4 players who may or may not even make the team.
- paulr


Look, Pallie...... I'd live Marner, but they'd likely lose Strome and Cat because of salary cap hell, and would lose 4 consecutive number one picks to try to fill in around him and a declining T & K pair.

Of course, it is completely hypothetical.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 12 @ 11:13 AM ET
It's kind of a moot discussion because there is no chance Marner doesn't remain a Leaf but a known quantity who comes onto the team as the top player, sorry Kane, it would be hard not to make the deal for 4 players who may or may not even make the team.
- paulr


Double post.
Assman22
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 04.13.2012

Apr 12 @ 11:16 AM ET
Even though I doubt it gets that far, an offer sheet for Marner by, whatever team, would be the best thing to happen because the Leafs would have to match and then have a firesale to accomodate the signing.
- paulr

Yes a massive firesale. They already are scarce on defense. They’d have to dump a ton of forwards and replace them with prospect types/old vets for minimum.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 12 @ 11:17 AM ET
And then the Hawks still have the biggest issue, no top pairing defensemen.

I like Cozens too and am hoping that's who the Hawks select. But the scouting staff almost always seem to have the players ranked differently then the various draft sites. It won't surprise me at all to see Bowman go up and call a guy ranked 17, 10, 21 ..... or 3.

- paulr


I'm a very logical person - I drive my wife nuts with my penchant for diving 16 levels deep on some minor point.

But, that only applies in real life. In my Hawks fan life, I shant be held responsible for what I said 10 minutes ago.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 12 @ 11:21 AM ET
Look, Pallie...... I'd live Marner, but they'd likely lose Strome and Cat because of salary cap hell, and would lose 4 consecutive number one picks to try to fill in around him and a declining T & K pair.

Of course, it is completely hypothetical.

- mohel

lighten up Francis, in my world there is no salary cap
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 12 @ 11:23 AM ET
I'm a very logical person - I drive my wife nuts with my penchant for diving 16 levels deep on some minor point.

But, that only applies in real life. In my Hawks fan life, I shant be held responsible for what I said 10 minutes ago.

- EbonyRaptor

I'm pretty easy going, does your wife like short, fat, bald guys with one leg and 4 teeth?
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 12 @ 11:29 AM ET
I don't know where the Hawks are at in regards to who they love in the draft, but i see Byram sitting there and think if he's a top pairing defenseman of the future, the Hawks have to take him, aging Keith and Seabrook, Joki showing flashes, the Hawks would have a top pairing for years to come since he's a Left defenseman, getting the 3rd pick and having Byram sitting there is like Christmas morning and you know what you're getting but you can't wait to open it.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Apr 12 @ 11:30 AM ET
I have gone back and forth on my answering the Kakko or Cozen long term equation.


I have been trying to be diplomatic and follow my board but Cozen has old school tendencies truly exceptional top end speed and seems like he could be a generational talent like the guys above him...there I said it...no one else has said it...the soft passes, the way he masks his destination when he doesn't have the puck. and he is never gonna be the guy who doesn't follow his gut and out of deference to Kane, DeBrincat etc. try and get them the puck (like we saw Sikura and others do with clockwork) if he in fact has the shot. And even though I know the big Finnish winger (maybe centre but not in. my eyes) can sty focused with multiple opponents draped on him, I stayed up and reviewed that Dylan Cozen has against Western league opponents too.

I have loved this class of forwards down to Krebs so much and was holding back my energy levels to not be caught on a limb if/when they possibly flat-lined, but now I can tell I have told many I wanted Cozens but never thought there was a chance in the late trip ten.

Go back and read my diplomatic responses in the last two blogs and maybe you can see through to that.

My question is: May I be forgiven.

This is so exciting for me!


btw I have the top 40 profiles up in my mock

- wiz1901


How does Cozens compare to Strome? Also a number 3 pick and the same height and when cozens fills out probably the same weight?
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Apr 12 @ 11:32 AM ET
Yes a massive firesale. They already are scarce on defense. They’d have to dump a ton of forwards and replace them with prospect types/old vets for minimum.
- Assman22


Seeing what Nylander finally signed for after holding out, I can't imagine Marner agreeing to anything less than Matthews numbers.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Apr 12 @ 11:34 AM ET
I agree that the forwards need to be more involved in the defense.

That is why I do not like Kane and Toews together. When Toews played with Hossa/Saad his line could go toe to toe with the other team's best line, or Q could match them up against 3rd or 4th lines and exploit them. I would put Kane with Strome and ADB. It is an awful defensive line, but the offense is great. Then have Toews, Saad and a RW with some offense and a 200' game. Then you add a 4th line with Caggiula, Kampf and a FA power forward RW that is physical, mean and can also play on the PK. It could be your 2nd shut down line (like Kruger's line was in prior Cup winning years). The 3rd line would have Kahun, AA (if he is not traded) or a legit 3C FA (if AA is traded) and then Sikura/Kubalik,Perlini or the likes.

If you can set up the forward lines like that, add a stud top 4 defender, have a healthy Crow for 55 games, and full training camp team the D could improve dramatically.

- -Doh-

This. If you are going to send Toews out and ask his line to play well on both ends of the ice, you cannot have Kane with him. JT needs defensively responsible forwards on both wings if you want to maximize his talent.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 12 @ 11:35 AM ET
Can the Hawks have Backstrom from the Caps have a seminar on how forwards should block shots. He was fantastic last night at both ends of the ice
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 12 @ 11:37 AM ET
I'm pretty easy going, does your wife like short, fat, bald guys with one leg and 4 teeth?
- paulr


She married me didn't she.
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Apr 12 @ 11:40 AM ET
I don't know where the Hawks are at in regards to who they love in the draft, but i see Byram sitting there and think if he's a top pairing defenseman of the future, the Hawks have to take him, aging Keith and Seabrook, Joki showing flashes, the Hawks would have a top pairing for years to come since he's a Left defenseman, getting the 3rd pick and having Byram sitting there is like Christmas morning and you know what you're getting but you can't wait to open it.
- BetweenTheDots

I think so too. He’s being compared to Drew Doughty and is supposed to be the best D man coming out of the WHL in quite some time. The fact that he plays the left too and is effective in all three zones while eating major minutes is huge.

I understand everyone’s concerns about taking yet another d-man, but at the end of the day if the Hawks deem Byram to be BPA, they shouldn’t hesitate in drafting him.

Something tells me (gut feeling) that Beaudin won’t end up being a Blackhawk but will end up being used as a trade piece.

Byram - Boqvist
Mitchell - Joker

That’s quite the foundation.

With Toews-Strome centering the top-2 lines for at least the next 2-3 years, our need for a center isn’t as dire.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 12 @ 11:41 AM ET
I don't know where the Hawks are at in regards to who they love in the draft, but i see Byram sitting there and think if he's a top pairing defenseman of the future, the Hawks have to take him, aging Keith and Seabrook, Joki showing flashes, the Hawks would have a top pairing for years to come since he's a Left defenseman, getting the 3rd pick and having Byram sitting there is like Christmas morning and you know what you're getting but you can't wait to open it.
- BetweenTheDots


Byram isn't a slam dunk top-pairing guy. He will probably be a good NHL d-man but the notion that he is the top-pairing d-man of the future is a stretch.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 12 @ 11:43 AM ET
How does Cozens compare to Strome? Also a number 3 pick and the same height and when cozens fills out probably the same weight?
- LAHawk


Skating was the knock against Strome whereas it's a strength for Cozens.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Apr 12 @ 11:44 AM ET
Byram isn't a slam dunk top-pairing guy. He will probably be a good NHL d-man but the notion that he is the top-pairing d-man of the future is a stretch.
- EbonyRaptor


If he is a top-4 take him, cheaper to get a 3C via trade or free agency than a top 4 D.
Rota's Rooter
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2017

Apr 12 @ 11:46 AM ET
I wouldn't be surprised if NJ took Kakko instead of Hughes. NJ has a couple young centers in Hischier and Zacha and might rather get a stud RW for Hischier. But, if they do take Hughes with the #1, then I would explore what it would take to get NYR to swap picks so the Hawks can take Kakko.

The thing with having (4) young high draft pick PMD prospects is that it is unlikely all of them can play in the lineup together - someone on D has to actually play solid defense. Therefore, I think it would be be a good idea to use 1 or 2 of them in trade packages ... such as using Mitchell or Beaudin as enticement for NYR to swap picks. It wouldn't need to be #3 & Mitchell for #2 - there could be other pieces involved - but that would be the general principle.

- EbonyRaptor

PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Apr 12 @ 11:47 AM ET
Take Cozen please. He offer the most of each center. Do not trade down then start thinking about drafting a different positional player. We better hope Kakko and Cosins do not go ahead of us. I do not want Hughes and his size and the Russian is too big a gamble at #3. Elite talent like this you draft DO NOT trade down. Unless bothb Kaako and Cozen go ahead, then trade to #4 or #5 if you have assurance the other team promises to take a player you don't want. The Seabrook affair plays out later. Do nit go overboard on that either. If we get a good player drafted so be it. That player is a more sustainable loss than to loose a top prospect
- jhawk59


Wait....a week ago the Hawks were picking 12th.

Now...you "dont want Hughes" if they have a chance of getting him?
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Apr 12 @ 11:51 AM ET
Wait....a week ago the Hawks were picking 12th.

Now...you "dont want Hughes" if they have a chance of getting him?

- PatShart



If the Hawks land one of Hughes, Kakko, Cozens, Dach or Bowen it will be a great draft.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 12 @ 11:53 AM ET
Skating was the knock against Strome whereas it's a strength for Cozens.
- EbonyRaptor

Cozens is also a guy who is pretty physical, which Strome isn't.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Apr 12 @ 11:53 AM ET
A lot of commentary - including on the networks and other media - about Shero’s comments.

Except for McDavid and (maybe) Matthews recently - why would any GM in Shero’s position completely commit to a first-round pick 10 weeks before the draft? Even if he was 90% sure of the choice.

I took the comment as - let’s do our due diligence and work them out and have interviews, even listen to offers from other teams and....

- StLBravesFan


Believe me after I heard his words, like you, I tired to work through the diplomacy and the fact maybe just maybe, someone (like the Rangers who have drafted Swedish and Russians high since the rebuild began, but a marquee American might be such a terrific face for the franchise) offers NJ them Kreider and second forward or a defender to flip one spot?

Honestly in this era even a one slot move is a big deal and big payout.

NO TEAM wants to nonchalantly flip one spot and in the long term end up losing the gem, that is why the fan idea in THIS ERA, of oh, why don't we offer a switch of early first rounders and throw in so and so, isn't EVER on the table; you gotta make offers to move upward that cost you big time, and since this is a really good class, and you still might strike gold later one mid round, I think each GM doesn't want the fanbase to add another weapon to use in anger towards them.

The teams probably already know where they think the first rounds tue drop off starts.
(Every draft in decades reaches a tier drop that gets teams actually selecting form a stable of prospects that could be second rounders as well as possible first rounders...that is when the GMs/staffs are more than willing to start moving / trading picks b/c the figure their is a longer wait on the payoff.)
This 2019 draft might be the closest to an entire first round of "good stuff" than I have seen since I became a draftnik as a teenager.

You could maybe argue the final 5 slots on my board could be interchanged with ten kids in the second round (and even a goalie or two) but it isn't uncommon that the draft starts to dry by slot 19 in many a year.
You can go backward and see this and drags are never EQUAL in talent and development but it is easy to see how team head scouts can get seduced into the projected successes in that bottom half, and some teams get incorrect and get super rewards while other teams are still waiting for the payoffs on these youngsters.

The key is good scouting butat the top the only questions are will the kid be a franchise cornerstone, impact player and how long before it happens. (I had big winger Michael Dal Colle branded a bust with a 5th overall selection by the Islanders and it took until his 22 th birthday to finally Strat looking like he was gonna be a NHLer with some impact.)
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Apr 12 @ 11:55 AM ET
Not sure if anyone is familiar with the Swedish hockey league but it appears that the Hawks have interest (along with Arizona, Colorado, and Toronto) in a player named Anton Wedin. Appears that Arizona is pushing the hardest/front runner but possibly something to keep an eye on.

https://www.expressen.se/...nget-shl-for-anton-wedin/
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Apr 12 @ 12:01 PM ET
If the Hawks land one of Hughes, Kakko, Cozens, Dach or Bowen it will be a great draft.
- DarthKane



One last time Darth:

Reservations by me that Bowen is masking his inabilities in reading and lacks IQ in his end and will always be a player who causes more issues as a defender IF he gets to the bigs.Boqvist may need time and muscle but he knows his responsibilities and isn't lost out there.
I don't know how to prove this to anyone or if I need to, but maybe if you can call up the CHL prospects game (which also included a quiet Cozens) watch Byram Bowen get lost time or time.
And it wasn't the first time I had the thoughts, this just fortified my opinion, but again, I am not a paid member of an NHL scouting combine, and don't know squat really except what I conjure from watching.
This new age defender position fill starts to get complicated when you have to determine if these guys can "Duncan Keith" it as defenders reading and then being actually to position and react.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Apr 12 @ 12:03 PM ET
Not sure if anyone is familiar with the Swedish hockey league but it appears that the Hawks have interest (along with Arizona, Colorado, and Toronto) in a player named Anton Wedin. Appears that Arizona is pushing the hardest/front runner but possibly something to keep an eye on.

https://www.expressen.se/...nget-shl-for-anton-wedin/

- TommyHawk


I could understand the interest since he is a winger who finally played in the SHL and had a marvelous year statistically and he has some girth in him to add to the Hawks (maybe). I think he is older maybe 28, but might be incorrect/

First I heard of this.

For all the crap bowman takes, they certainly are committed to turning over lost of stones to get better, no skinflint attitude to spending on these possibles.
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