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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Year-End Mailbag
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paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 12 @ 1:33 PM ET
Dude, I wrote a long post yesterday bluntly stating that Cozens is similar to Connor McDavid, and that Cozens has a Connor McDavid ceiling if he works hard and reaches potential... The only factor that separates Cozens and McDavid is that McDavid is naturally talented in all aspects of the game and Cozens doesn't have that natural talent, so he's going to have to really work hard and LEARN how to split NHL defenders, find open space and use his size and speed to his advantage on NHL players at the NHL level... With McDavid tho, that stuff is just natural for him - he doesn't even have to work at it - he just does it without thinking too much about it.

The problem with Cosens is that he could easily turn out to be a bust.. Think Nail Yakupov... So Cosens is a moderately high risk but extremely high reward type player... I mean he could turn out to be a Connor McDavid but at the same time he could be a Dylan Strome as well and at worst a Nail Yakupov.. It just depends on how hard he's willing to work and how he adjusts to NHL competition... I mean Cosens looks like Connor McDavid in juniors but the NHL is an entirely different..

That's the thing about the CHL tho, some players can just dominate and they look like the best players ever but they get to the NHL and they're average if not complete busts..

And that's the thing with Cosens - he's either going to be a top 6 forward or he's not going to make it at the NHL level because his speed and offense is what makes him such an interesting prospect... I mean he has no other abilities to fall back on.

- Savard2Secord


You can say that about anybody. Kruger can achieve McDavid's numbers if this that and the other happen.

Cozens, and he's the guy I hope the Hawks select, will not achieve what McDavid will. They are two completely different players and Cozens does not have close to the skill set McDavid has.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Apr 12 @ 1:33 PM ET
Reading that in training camp I would put him on RW with Toews and Saad, and see if he is ready.
- LAHawk


That would be an easier transition into the NHL than playing center. He can be switched to center in the future if it proves to be his best position.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 12 @ 1:34 PM ET
On lottery night after the Hawks landed the #3 pick I wanted them to take either Cozens or Dach. Reading Wiz’ assessment of Cozens - I’m even more committed to Cozens as the right pick.

Tab over at Committed Indians put together a nice overview of Cozens for those interested in reading it:

http://committedindians.c...aft-profile-dylan-cozens/

- Chief4Feathers

Or Turcotte, right? Love Turcotte.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Apr 12 @ 1:35 PM ET
A talent like that definitely gives you options. Perhaps he shows you enough to center a 3rd line with Saad on his wing? Even if he needs to play another year in the minors - the scouting report on him makes me believe he’s the gut the Hawks should select.
- Chief4Feathers


I pencil Entwhistle eventually as third line center, why I would try Cozens as a winger with Toews and Saad, no smurfs on that line.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 12 @ 1:37 PM ET
That would be an easier transition into the NHL than playing center. He can be switched to center in the future if it proves to be his best position.
- EbonyRaptor

Man, I am going to rock your world. The U18 start next week and that has the potential to throw the 3-15 slots into total disarray.

I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Hawks took Zegras at 3, tbh. He has a Kelley pick all over. Skates well. High hockey IQ. Versatile. Seems to be rising up the rankings on some sources.
Chief4Feathers
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Post-Tank-alyptic World
Joined: 12.23.2010

Apr 12 @ 1:40 PM ET
Or Turcotte, right? Love Turcotte.
- Elbows15


I’ll have to dive more into the analysis on Turcotte before I can say I like Dach more than him - but I’m very high on Cozens.

At worst, I believe Cozens will be a faster, more defensively capable Strome. At best, dare I say Toews-ish.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 12 @ 1:41 PM ET
You guys doing a good sell job on Cozens and maybe that will be the guy, but we only get a fraction of the information the Hawks will have when they meet with these guys and work with their scouts. Will be interesting to see who the team chooses when the time comes.

Toews and Kane are good together because they do compliment each other. Toews puck possession prowess and Kanes puck handling. I really hope they don't go back to the lines that didn't work. With Toews/Saad and Flavor of the week doing all the defensive work while Kane and his line get lit up in their own end. Big step backwards IMO. There is no point having an offensive line that gives up as much as it scores or having a defensive line that drags Toews back to a 60 point pace. Hawks are stronger with more balance in the top 6 IMO.
TrueGrit
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 07.19.2011

Apr 12 @ 1:41 PM ET
You can say that about anybody. Kruger can achieve McDavid's numbers if this that and the other happen.

Cozens, and he's the guy I hope the Hawks select, will not achieve what McDavid will. They are two completely different players and Cozens does not have close to the skill set McDavid has.

- paulr


He needs to play against 6 and 7 year olds...and yes...big numbers...
Savard2Secord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Round Lake, IL
Joined: 12.12.2016

Apr 12 @ 1:42 PM ET
Ignoring the salary cap on a message board can be done but Stan doesn't have that luxury in the real world. The only reason there is talk about an offer sheet for Marner is because Toronto already has (2) $10M+ players in Tavares and Matthews and therefore can't afford Marner unless they significantly weaken their team by offloading other key players. The Hawks would be in even worse cap hell than Toronto because Toronto doesn't have the Seabrook $7M boat anchor on their books.
- EbonyRaptor


I agree with you, but if Bowman can find a way to move Seabrook then you absolutely target Marner.. I mean Seabrook wouldn't need to be moved immediately if Bowman signed Marner, however he would need to be gone within 2 seasons.. Of course Seabrook has that NMC which could make things difficult, but would Seabrook at his age really be that egotistical and selfish and refuse to waive?.. Also remember this - Seabrooks contract is front loaded, and after this season I think he only makes like 3 million per or something around there so that would probably make it a little easier to move him, and with Q in Florida I think that would be an option.

But yea, signing Marner would be predicated on Bowman moving Seabrook or knowing that he could move Seabrook at some point in the near future.

Nothing is impossible... I mean Seabrook isn't what he used to be, but he is still a #5 defenseman, not only that but his intangibles such as leadership qualities and his resume would be really attractive to some teams at a 3 million dollar salary.. So I don't think moving Seabrook will be as difficult as most make it out to be. Don't get me wrong it will be hard but I think it could be done...

So with that said, I mean if Bowman thinks he can move contracts to make Marner fit then I think he should do it...

Let's also not forget that Toews and Kane only have 4 more years left on their deals, and I expect both will re-sign after those deals are up but not at 10.5 million.

So yea, it's possible to keep this core together for a very long time even with Marner on the books but it's going to take a lot of work to make it happen, but I think it's worth it...

But yea, Seabrook will have to go to make it all work... Anisimov too, but I suspect he will be traded the moment his NTC is up this summer and Marner will have nothing to do with it...
Chief4Feathers
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Post-Tank-alyptic World
Joined: 12.23.2010

Apr 12 @ 1:43 PM ET
He needs to play against 6 and 7 year olds...and yes...big numbers...
- TrueGrit


savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Apr 12 @ 1:46 PM ET
He needs to play against 6 and 7 year olds...and yes...big numbers...
- TrueGrit

Yes, and also needs to move up to an 85 flex twig.
No more Redvines.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 12 @ 1:46 PM ET
He needs to play against 6 and 7 year olds...and yes...big numbers...
- TrueGrit

I qualified my comment. But are you willing to wager he could put up those numbers against 7 year olds?
Chief4Feathers
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Post-Tank-alyptic World
Joined: 12.23.2010

Apr 12 @ 1:47 PM ET
You guys doing a good sell job on Cozens and maybe that will be the guy, but we only get a fraction of the information the Hawks will have when they meet with these guys and work with their scouts. Will be interesting to see who the team chooses when the time comes.

Toews and Kane are good together because they do compliment each other. Toews puck possession prowess and Kanes puck handling. I really hope they don't go back to the lines that didn't work. With Toews/Saad and Flavor of the week doing all the defensive work while Kane and his line get lit up in their own end. Big step backwards IMO. There is no point having an offensive line that gives up as much as it scores or having a defensive line that drags Toews back to a 60 point pace. Hawks are stronger with more balance in the top 6 IMO.

- breadbag


You’ll get no argument from me by pointing out that the draft is very much a crapshoot - and my gut has been way off on these picks many times before. I was ready to anoint Mark McNeil as the 2C behind Toews when the Hawks selected him 18th overall in 2011. That didn’t exactly work out.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Apr 12 @ 1:47 PM ET
You guys doing a good sell job on Cozens and maybe that will be the guy, but we only get a fraction of the information the Hawks will have when they meet with these guys and work with their scouts. Will be interesting to see who the team chooses when the time comes.

Toews and Kane are good together because they do compliment each other. Toews puck possession prowess and Kanes puck handling. I really hope they don't go back to the lines that didn't work. With Toews/Saad and Flavor of the week doing all the defensive work while Kane and his line get lit up in their own end. Big step backwards IMO. There is no point having an offensive line that gives up as much as it scores or having a defensive line that drags Toews back to a 60 point pace. Hawks are stronger with more balance in the top 6 IMO.

- breadbag


Agree. Toews Saad and a fringe NHL player does not work. If they get a really good 200' RW that can score through the draft or trade, moving Kane to play with ADB and Strome makes sense.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 12 @ 1:48 PM ET
You can say that about anybody. Kruger can achieve McDavid's numbers if this that and the other happen.

Cozens, and he's the guy I hope the Hawks select, will not achieve what McDavid will. They are two completely different players and Cozens does not have close to the skill set McDavid has.

- paulr

No prospect in this draft is at the McDavid level except perhaps Hughes. If Cozens reaches potential, then I see his comparable to be Scheifele. I'd still take a Scheifele comparable every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 12 @ 1:48 PM ET
I pencil Entwhistle eventually as third line center, why I would try Cozens as a winger with Toews and Saad, no smurfs on that line.
- LAHawk

Plus, Cozens is defensively responsible.
Chief4Feathers
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Post-Tank-alyptic World
Joined: 12.23.2010

Apr 12 @ 1:53 PM ET
Plus, Cozens is defensively responsible.
- AEL_Fox


Yes. He strikes me as the kind of rookie Q would feel comfortable playing.

Q would say something like “Cozie plays a reliable game...”
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Apr 12 @ 1:53 PM ET
You’ll get no argument from me by pointing out that the draft is very much a crapshoot - and my gut has been way off on these picks many times before. I was ready to anoint Mark McNeil as the 2C behind Toews when the Hawks selected him 18th overall in 2011. That didn’t exactly work out.
- Chief4Feathers

McNeill is an example of "having size and an NHL frame" doesn't mean they will succeed over a smaller player. DeBrincat says hello.

p.s. Like you, I was high on McNeill when he was drafted but his stock kept decreasing in value each passing year where he was mediocre and just not that assertive.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Apr 12 @ 1:54 PM ET
I agree with you, but if Bowman can find a way to move Seabrook then you absolutely target Marner.. I mean Seabrook wouldn't need to be moved immediately if Bowman signed Marner, however he would need to be gone within 2 seasons.. Of course Seabrook has that NMC which could make things difficult, but would Seabrook at his age really be that egotistical and selfish and refuse to waive?.. Also remember this - Seabrooks contract is front loaded, and after this season I think he only makes like 3 million per or something around there so that would probably make it a little easier to move him, and with Q in Florida I think that would be an option.

But yea, signing Marner would be predicated on Bowman moving Seabrook or knowing that he could move Seabrook at some point in the near future.

Nothing is impossible... I mean Seabrook isn't what he used to be, but he is still a #5 defenseman, not only that but his intangibles such as leadership qualities and his resume would be really attractive to some teams at a 3 million dollar salary.. So I don't think moving Seabrook will be as difficult as most make it out to be. Don't get me wrong it will be hard but I think it could be done...

So with that said, I mean if Bowman thinks he can move contracts to make Marner fit then I think he should do it...

Let's also not forget that Toews and Kane only have 4 more years left on their deals, and I expect both will re-sign after those deals are up but not at 10.5 million.

So yea, it's possible to keep this core together for a very long time even with Marner on the books but it's going to take a lot of work to make it happen, but I think it's worth it...

But yea, Seabrook will have to go to make it all work... Anisimov too, but I suspect he will be traded the moment his NTC is up this summer and Marner will have nothing to do with it...

- Savard2Secord


I wonder what you could get if you offered Seabs and next years first round pick? Top 4 defender with a lower cap hit? Top 6 forward? 3C?

Same question if the deal was AA and next years 1st round pick? Top 4 defender? Top 6 forward? 3C?

Depending on the trading partner and their cap space situation and their need for a forward or defender it might be interesting to explore.

Remember that you not only get the player acquired in the trade you could get cap a little space this year or in future years.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 12 @ 1:54 PM ET
I’ll have to dive more into the analysis on Turcotte before I can say I like Dach more than him - but I’m very high on Cozens.

At worst, I believe Cozens will be a faster, more defensively capable Strome. At best, dare I say Toews-ish.

- Chief4Feathers


Dach is far down my list. For informational purposes only. I have seen Cozens comparable as Kesler. For Turcotte, its been Toews and Kopi. What it means besides one person's opinion, prolly not much.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Apr 12 @ 1:54 PM ET
I know Jake Wise was injured most of the year, he also has top 6 potential, needs seasoning.
TrueGrit
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 07.19.2011

Apr 12 @ 1:57 PM ET
I qualified my comment. But are you willing to wager he could put up those numbers against 7 year olds?
- paulr


Let me think about it, he still won't have the hardest shot in that league....
TrueGrit
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 07.19.2011

Apr 12 @ 1:58 PM ET
Yes, and also needs to move up to an 85 flex twig.
No more Redvines.

- savvyone-1


I am a 100 flex guy. I think 85 is like screwing with a flaccid richard...but hey...that is me....
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Apr 12 @ 1:58 PM ET
I know Jake Wise was injured most of the year, he also has top 6 potential, needs seasoning.
- LAHawk

Needs to play more than anything. Still could end up being a huge sleeper in that draft. Wise and Kurashev would be fricking enormous for the organization if both pan out.
Savard2Secord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Round Lake, IL
Joined: 12.12.2016

Apr 12 @ 1:59 PM ET
You guys doing a good sell job on Cozens and maybe that will be the guy, but we only get a fraction of the information the Hawks will have when they meet with these guys and work with their scouts. Will be interesting to see who the team chooses when the time comes.

Toews and Kane are good together because they do compliment each other. Toews puck possession prowess and Kanes puck handling. I really hope they don't go back to the lines that didn't work. With Toews/Saad and Flavor of the week doing all the defensive work while Kane and his line get lit up in their own end. Big step backwards IMO. There is no point having an offensive line that gives up as much as it scores or having a defensive line that drags Toews back to a 60 point pace. Hawks are stronger with more balance in the top 6 IMO.

- breadbag


With Cozens his potential is just too much to overlook, but like I said he's going to have to work hard to be the generational player he could be.. But I think Podkolzin is the safer pick, I mean he's already NHL ready and naturally he will only get better, and he's a complete player that can play at both ends of the ice - not only that but the kid has tremendous offensive talent.. Meanwhile Cozens could be a Connor McDavid but he really is a gamble... So do you go for the sure thing in Podkolzin or Hughes or Kakko if they slip or do you take the gamble and go for the high risk, high reward Connor McDavid type player?... Me personally I would go with the safe pick and select Podkolzin because it would suck to go from 12 to 3 only to select a bust.

Also, Podkolzin is very similar to Toews, Podkolzin just has more offensive upside. He could be a consistent PPG player that can play in all situations and be highly effective in all situations... And ultimately that's who I think Bowman will go with at 3rd overall. I mean Bowman isn't a risk taker, he goes for the sure thing almost always. Sure all draft picks are risks but I don't see Bowman gambling with the 3rd overall pick on a player that could be Connor McDavid but could also be Nail Yakupov or :sigh: - Viktor Stalberg.
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