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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Phantoms, McKenna, NCAA Championship, CHL Playoffs, 9 to Worlds
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PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 14 @ 10:00 PM ET
I think people forget how young he is. Regardless of how good the return for Schenn was Hextall really kicked the can down the road by throwing a 19 year old out there with Flippula as his backup.

I still think it's too early to be selling Patrick. He's going to be a solid 2C down the road, I don't care where he was drafted.

- hereticpride


You can't just disregard his poor play as him being young. Konecny is young too.

I'd say his ceiling is that of a solid 2C.
77rams
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There's a kind of freedom in being completely screwed...
Joined: 09.12.2006

Apr 14 @ 10:01 PM ET
I think people forget how young he is. Regardless of how good the return for Schenn was Hextall really kicked the can down the road by throwing a 19 year old out there with Flippula as his backup.

I still think it's too early to be selling Patrick. He's going to be a solid 2C down the road, I don't care where he was drafted.

- hereticpride


To even remotely consider moving Nolan at this time is ridiculous.
Sinisalo4vr
Location: Dont f with the Jesus, PA
Joined: 06.24.2016

Apr 14 @ 10:01 PM ET
I think people forget how young he is. Regardless of how good the return for Schenn was Hextall really kicked the can down the road by throwing a 19 year old out there with Flippula as his backup. To be saying he's the reason they have suspect center depth is absurd. Hextall didn't go out and get a 3C this past off-season plain and simple.

I still think it's too early to be selling Patrick. He's going to be a solid 2C down the road, I don't care where he was drafted.

- hereticpride

True that. His usage throughout his 2 year career hasn’t been consistent. The only issue that would give you pause is his injury history.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 14 @ 10:04 PM ET
True that. His usage throughout his 2 year career hasn’t been consistent. The only issue that would give you pause is his injury history.
- Sinisalo4vr


He's gotten the opportunity to play with two of the league's best wingers and has struggled to produce. They even gave him a chance to play on the top PP unit for a little while. Not sure what else they could have done to help him.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Apr 14 @ 10:07 PM ET
He's gotten the opportunity to play with two of the league's best wingers and has struggled to produce. They even gave him a chance to play on the top PP unit for a little while. Not sure what else they could have done to help him.
- PhillySportsGuy

It takes more time for some players. If this is how he's playing at 25 then I'm open to criticizing him a lot more.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Apr 14 @ 10:18 PM ET
It takes more time for some players. If this is how he's playing at 25 then I'm open to criticizing him a lot more.
- hereticpride


Patrick is going to be fine. His career path is going to be similar to Couturier. Its going to take him a few years to get up to full potential and that is fine. He had dealt with injuries and a LOT of uncertainty is his short career. A coaching change this this year. And missed having Filppula around (I don't want to hear it).

He is very young and will be better. He needs confidence and a coach who knows how to use him, now and as he gets better.
bird_dog_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 07.05.2011

Apr 14 @ 10:26 PM ET
The patience this city has with players is insanity.
It’s surprising any young flyer player is any good here. Oh they suck so trade them now and watch them be successful elsewhere.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Apr 14 @ 10:38 PM ET
Was thinking of packaging him with other players/picks for a young stud C
- PhillySportsGuy


He’s going to be a solid 2C in this league. Reminds me of Schenn when he started out. His two way game is better though
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Apr 14 @ 10:41 PM ET
He's gotten the opportunity to play with two of the league's best wingers and has struggled to produce. They even gave him a chance to play on the top PP unit for a little while. Not sure what else they could have done to help him.
- PhillySportsGuy


I’m not going to give excuses for him. He needs to be better. But from what I see he’s getting more and more comfortable with the puck on his stick. He needs to work on making more plays to the net. Being a bit more sudden and sharp in his game
Djapana
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Sunset Dreaming, FL
Joined: 09.16.2017

Apr 14 @ 10:42 PM ET
The people of Tampa are shocked......that they have a hockey team
- Just5

Tampa has a very solid fan base and have had seasonal sell outs for many years. They sell out even in the odd years that they don’t make the playoffs. It’s been this way since they won the cup and a bit longer. They actually have a much more reliable fan base than Columbus. It is nothing like the franchise on the other side of the state.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Apr 14 @ 10:48 PM ET
I don’t want anything to do with Erik Karlsson this summer
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Apr 14 @ 10:49 PM ET
Tampa has a very solid fan base and have had seasonal sell outs for many years. They sell out even in the odd years that they don’t make the playoffs. It’s been this way since they won the cup and a bit longer. They actually have a much more reliable fan base than Columbus. It is nothing like the franchise on the other side of the state.
- Djapana


I didn’t think they were Florida bad with attendance but that’s nice that they draw that well
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Apr 14 @ 11:19 PM ET
I don’t want anything to do with Erik Karlsson this summer
- Just5

Been saying this forever he’s poop on D
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Apr 14 @ 11:27 PM ET
I don’t want anything to do with Erik Karlsson this summer
- Just5

The feeling is probably mutual.

Why would he want to come here right now? He's going to have an offer for nearly every team in the league I have to imagine.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 14 @ 11:34 PM ET
His career path is going to be similar to Couturier
- MBFlyerfan


I'd really be careful about making that assumption.

Coots was (frank)ing fantastic possession player and defensive player when he stepped into the league at the same age. Patrick's one of the team's worst possession forwards (despite having way better linemates and more ozone time than Coots ever got), and not exactly polished defensively either.

Not saying he's gonna be a bad NHL player or anything, but I think people need to realize he's likely a 45-50 pt C.

If there's a chance to get a guy with a higher ceiling for Patrick, I'd look into it.
Tfaehner
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.25.2012

Apr 15 @ 6:47 AM ET
Tampa has a very solid fan base and have had seasonal sell outs for many years. They sell out even in the odd years that they don’t make the playoffs. It’s been this way since they won the cup and a bit longer. They actually have a much more reliable fan base than Columbus. It is nothing like the franchise on the other side of the state.
- Djapana


Semi correct. They've been in the top half of attendance only since 2013. And they only the past few years have averaged Dell outs.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 15 @ 7:52 AM ET
You can't just disregard his poor play as him being young. Konecny is young too.

I'd say his ceiling is that of a solid 2C.

- PhillySportsGuy


Patrick's offensive production is certainly disappointing but I wouldn't call it poor play. He plays very well away from the puck and shows sign of being a really good offensive player. His development is just not going to happen as quickly as we had hoped.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 15 @ 7:54 AM ET
I'd really be careful about making that assumption.

Coots was (frank)ing fantastic possession player and defensive player when he stepped into the league at the same age. Patrick's one of the team's worst possession forwards (despite having way better linemates and more ozone time than Coots ever got), and not exactly polished defensively either.

Not saying he's gonna be a bad NHL player or anything, but I think people need to realize he's likely a 45-50 pt C.

If there's a chance to get a guy with a higher ceiling for Patrick, I'd look into it.

- Tomahawk


I think he has potential to score more than that. I also think he is going to develop offensively fast than Couturier.
RajaAmpat
Joined: 12.16.2018

Apr 15 @ 7:55 AM ET
You don't want anyone from that conference? How about no one from college, period.

This franchise hasn't had a coach with a NHL track record since Lavi and surprise surprise they've had next to no playoff success in that time.

- hereticpride


I actually dont want a college coach either, was just restraining my words a little.

RajaAmpat
Joined: 12.16.2018

Apr 15 @ 7:57 AM ET
The feeling is probably mutual.

Why would he want to come here right now? He's going to have an offer for nearly every team in the league I have to imagine.

- hereticpride


He is a modern day Paul Coffey with a good mustache and stylish hair...
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 15 @ 8:19 AM ET
I think he has potential to score more than that. I also think he is going to develop offensively fast than Couturier.
- MJL


The thing that concerns me is that he's not putting more rubber on net. It's one of the most clear indicators of a guy's scoring potential, since it's generally repeatable from season to season. Guys who we consider scorers tend to be around 2-3+ shots per game.


Below is a list of all guys who are currently top-six forwards around Patrick's age group and their shots/game:

Auston Matthews 3.38
Brady Tkatchuk 3.01
Patrik Laine 2.91
Clayton Keller 2.47
Alex DeBrincat 2.45
Matthew Tkathuk 2.40
Alex Svechnikov 2.30
Nico Hischier 2.25
P-L Dubois 2.06
Elias Pettersson 2.02
Nolan Patrick 1.67


He's way under the rest.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 15 @ 8:23 AM ET
The thing that concerns me is that he's not putting more rubber on net. It's one of the most clear indicators of a guy's scoring potential, since it's generally repeatable from season to season. Guys who we consider scorers tend to be around 2-3+ shots per game.


Below is a list of all guys who are currently top-six forwards around Patrick's age group and their shots/game:

Auston Matthews 3.38
Brady Tkatchuk 3.01
Patrik Laine 2.91
Clayton Keller 2.47
Alex DeBrincat 2.45
Matthew Tkathuk 2.40
Alex Svechnikov 2.30
Nico Hischier 2.25
P-L Dubois 2.06
Elias Pettersson 2.02
Nolan Patrick 1.67


He's way under the rest.

- Tomahawk


Dig deeper and look at why he's not putting more shots on net. That's real anaysis rather than just looking at stats and comparing to other players. Look at why and if he has the ability to improve. Remember the comments of Fletcher about bad habits? Focus on that.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Apr 15 @ 8:26 AM ET
The thing that concerns me is that he's not putting more rubber on net. It's one of the most clear indicators of a guy's scoring potential, since it's generally repeatable from season to season. Guys who we consider scorers tend to be around 2-3+ shots per game.


Below is a list of all guys who are currently top-six forwards around Patrick's age group and their shots/game:

Auston Matthews 3.38
Brady Tkatchuk 3.01
Patrik Laine 2.91
Clayton Keller 2.47
Alex DeBrincat 2.45
Matthew Tkathuk 2.40
Alex Svechnikov 2.30
Nico Hischier 2.25
P-L Dubois 2.06
Elias Pettersson 2.02
Nolan Patrick 1.67


He's way under the rest.

- Tomahawk

To be fair I have to imagine he isn't getting the ice time that these guys are seeing as many of them are playing both top line minutes and top PP minutes. I have to imagine shots per 60 minutes played is a little more accurate than shots per game.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 15 @ 8:43 AM ET
To be fair I have to imagine he isn't getting the ice time that these guys are seeing as many of them are playing both top line minutes and top PP minutes. I have to imagine shots per 60 minutes played is a little more accurate than shots per game.
- hereticpride


ES Shots/60, still bottom of the stack:

Auston Matthews 10.55
Brady Tkatchuk 10.54
Alex Svechnikov 9.84
Alex DeBrincat 8.64
Patrik Laine 8.35
Matthew Tkathuk 7.97
Nico Hischier 7.89
Clayton Keller 7.35
P-L Dubois 7.32
Elias Pettersson 6.04
Nolan Patrick 5.67
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Apr 15 @ 9:02 AM ET
ES Shots/60, still bottom of the stack:

Auston Matthews 10.55
Brady Tkatchuk 10.54
Alex Svechnikov 9.84
Alex DeBrincat 8.64
Patrik Laine 8.35
Matthew Tkathuk 7.97
Nico Hischier 7.89
Clayton Keller 7.35
P-L Dubois 7.32
Elias Pettersson 6.04
Nolan Patrick 5.67

- Tomahawk

But a a good deal closer to most of those guys. I get what you're saying but we also have to remember he isn't a puck hogging sniper either. A few of these guys are shooters first and that just isn't Patrick's game.

I get it. He went 2nd overall and people want results. Give him some time. Honestly since we didn't even have any business picking 2nd that year I'm not too worked up over it. Frost may be our 2C in 2 or 3 years anyway and Patrick will be a fine 3C option.
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