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Forums :: Blog World :: Trevor Shackles: Thursday Think Tank: What a First Round
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david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Apr 25 @ 6:02 PM ET
So...

Obviously the leafs are in a much better position than the Sens. Like, much much better. Cap crunch or not next year, they're going to be fighting it out for top spot in the division, yet again (which likely means another boston round 1).

The Sens appear to have hit rock bottom (god I hope this is it), and have a good number of draft picks and prospects to start this rebuild. More top line talent is needed though.

But, it's rather transparent that many leaf fans are coming into the Sens thread to take their anguish at another disappointing season out on the fans here.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Apr 25 @ 6:25 PM ET
So...

Obviously the leafs are in a much better position than the Sens. Like, much much better. Cap crunch or not next year, they're going to be fighting it out for top spot in the division, yet again (which likely means another boston round 1).

The Sens appear to have hit rock bottom (god I hope this is it), and have a good number of draft picks and prospects to start this rebuild. More top line talent is needed though.

But, it's rather transparent that many leaf fans are coming into the Sens thread to take their anguish at another disappointing season out on the fans here.

- david22


i think the leafs know that this was their shot.....while they still had Marner and Matthews under ELC (like how Chicago won their cups).

next year the leafs have about 14 mil (that includes Horton's LTIR) and they have to sign:

marner
kapanen
johnsson
gardiner (or a replacement, nobody in the system is ready)
ozhiaganov (not a huge deal, but still probably a million)

plus players that need to be replaced on teh roster:

ennis
hainsey

can be replaced with prospects, but will still be at least 2-3 million against the cap


the following year they'll have even less cap space to work with, and will have to re-sign:

brown
muzzin
dermott
gauthier

this team will be so top loaded that they will have zero depth. this year was their shot, especially with a lot of the top teams out, and they blew it. leafs fans realize it, are bitter as (frank), and trying to deflect.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 25 @ 6:26 PM ET
So...

Obviously the leafs are in a much better position than the Sens. Like, much much better. Cap crunch or not next year, they're going to be fighting it out for top spot in the division, yet again (which likely means another boston round 1).

The Sens appear to have hit rock bottom (god I hope this is it), and have a good number of draft picks and prospects to start this rebuild. More top line talent is needed though.

But, it's rather transparent that many leaf fans are coming into the Sens thread to take their anguish at another disappointing season out on the fans here.

- david22


I think so. It is not entirely surprising that Prock returns to a Sens thread to try and soothe a lifetime of disappointment and hurt. We have to remember the Leafs have won nothing for a very long time. Anybody who has seen the Leafs actually achieve something meaningful are now collecting their old age pension.

So, the Leaf fans coming here are not looking for sympathy or support. They want you to bash them and say mean things. It is easier for them to cope with hostility. People who express regret or sympathy for their situation only add to their overall sense of misery.

Remember it is important to say that you do not think the Leafs choked!
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Apr 25 @ 6:27 PM ET
side bar....every time i wrote Prock on my keyboard, it's autocorrected to P r i c k.

even my phone knows
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Apr 25 @ 6:37 PM ET
i think the leafs know that this was their shot.....while they still had Marner and Matthews under ELC (like how Chicago won their cups).

next year the leafs have about 14 mil (that includes Horton's LTIR) and they have to sign:

marner
kapanen
johnsson
gardiner (or a replacement, nobody in the system is ready)
ozhiaganov (not a huge deal, but still probably a million)

plus players that need to be replaced on teh roster:

ennis
hainsey

can be replaced with prospects, but will still be at least 2-3 million against the cap


the following year they'll have even less cap space to work with, and will have to re-sign:

brown
muzzin
dermott
gauthier

this team will be so top loaded that they will have zero depth. this year was their shot, especially with a lot of the top teams out, and they blew it. leafs fans realize it, are bitter as (frank), and trying to deflect.

- sensarmy_11


Bracco and Sandin could make the team next year. There will be cap pain but all their guys will be getting better too. We'll see if Kadri or Nylander gets traded in the offseason to offset the pain. Kadri likely hurt his value after another stunt this year though.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Apr 25 @ 7:00 PM ET
Bracco and Sandin could make the team next year. There will be cap pain but all their guys will be getting better too. We'll see if Kadri or Nylander gets traded in the offseason to offset the pain. Kadri likely hurt his value after another stunt this year though.
- david22


they could make the team, sure, but neither one will be ready to take on big minutes, or likely even be effective top 4/top 6 guys

no matter what, the leafs will be losing key players without the cap or NHL ready prospects to replace them.

i think it will be very very difficult moving forward for any team to win without either having:

1. a few star players still on ELC; or

2. a bunch of guys who took team friendly deals

the only player who fits that criteria is morgan rielly, who's a steal at 5 mil. all the rest of the star players are making massive, non team friendly deals

i'm not saying it's impossible....but they already weren't as good as the top echelon teams in the league, and they are going to be worse next year.

you can guarantee for sure that gardiner is gone, plus probably 2 of:

kadri, nylander, kapanen, johnsson
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 25 @ 7:06 PM ET
Bracco and Sandin could make the team next year. There will be cap pain but all their guys will be getting better too. We'll see if Kadri or Nylander gets traded in the offseason to offset the pain. Kadri likely hurt his value after another stunt this year though.
- david22


I believe the Leafs would have won the series if Kadri had not had his brain fart.

Tavares was a mistake. The Leafs are not better than last year.

There are some players that are winners, they inspire others to win.

There are some players who have great skill but are not winners. They create great scoring results but they fail to lead their team to victory. If a guy is the best player on the team but his team does not win, it should be a red light. Check his junior record. Did he lead his team in playoff wins. Spezza was a gifted offensive player but he was not a team leader and could not be counted on to lead his team to victory. I see no difference between Tavares and Spezza.

Not sure the Leafs don't take a step back next year.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 25 @ 8:17 PM ET
Travis Yost (TSN) writes some great analytical stuff and he evaluates the Leaf loss in pretty stark terms. Earlier on in the same article he suggests the Leafs may not have any place to go for improvement next year.

"The list of players who owned a pitifully low percentage of the expected goals – guys like Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Gardiner, Jake Muzzin, John Tavares, Morgan Rielly, and Marner – also just so happen to be the core group of players who have driven the Leafs to where they are today.
It’s worth repeating that the goal differentials we did see were largely mirror images of how the game was played territorially. Of Toronto’s 12 most-utilized skaters in the series, only one – embattled defender Hainsey – actually drove a positive on-ice goal differential in the series. That’s also true if you isolate it to just expected goals. The rest of Toronto’s key players were either a wash in the minutes they played or were considerable negatives."
kaptaan
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Turning a new Leaf, CA
Joined: 09.29.2010

Apr 25 @ 10:38 PM ET
Travis Yost (TSN) writes some great analytical stuff and he evaluates the Leaf loss in pretty stark terms. Earlier on in the same article he suggests the Leafs may not have any place to go for improvement next year.

"The list of players who owned a pitifully low percentage of the expected goals – guys like Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Gardiner, Jake Muzzin, John Tavares, Morgan Rielly, and Marner – also just so happen to be the core group of players who have driven the Leafs to where they are today.
It’s worth repeating that the goal differentials we did see were largely mirror images of how the game was played territorially. Of Toronto’s 12 most-utilized skaters in the series, only one – embattled defender Hainsey – actually drove a positive on-ice goal differential in the series. That’s also true if you isolate it to just expected goals. The rest of Toronto’s key players were either a wash in the minutes they played or were considerable negatives."

- spatso

Always a good post. Thanks Spatso.
forbetterorWORSE
Ottawa Senators
Location: Riverview, NB
Joined: 06.12.2009

Apr 26 @ 10:11 AM ET
No, of course not.

I get that, but the insinuation that it's worse than being a Sens fan right now is pretty laughable. There really isn't anything worse than that right now. It's rock bottom.

- prock

Ill take a rebuild with low expectations over a team with high expectations they continually fail to meet. We've had both.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Apr 26 @ 3:27 PM ET
Ill take a rebuild with low expectations over a team with high expectations they continually fail to meet. We've had both.
- forbetterorWORSE


It must be so exciting for you to have no expectations for your team to meet. It must be very liberating for you to acknowledge there is no hope at all for you, and to actually enjoy that.

that sounds like an interesting way to go through life. I'd love to know what you do for a living. What your family and wife/girlfriend are like, if you have any at all. If you are happy with those things, do you think that is because you have no expectations?
forbetterorWORSE
Ottawa Senators
Location: Riverview, NB
Joined: 06.12.2009

Apr 26 @ 4:16 PM ET
It must be so exciting for you to have no expectations for your team to meet. It must be very liberating for you to acknowledge there is no hope at all for you, and to actually enjoy that.

that sounds like an interesting way to go through life. I'd love to know what you do for a living. What your family and wife/girlfriend are like, if you have any at all. If you are happy with those things, do you think that is because you have no expectations?

- prock

No expectations and no hope are two separate things. I have hope that this team will rebuild properly, and that eventually we will have a new owner. Eugene is not gonna live forever. As far as my personal life, not gonna get into that but im very happy so either ive got it good or maybe youre right. Either way, I dont miss the days of cheering for a talented soft team who choke when it counts.
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