It’s not a fun time to be a fan, let’s be honest. At least when other teams bomb out, they don’t have a clueless/cheap owner, team drama (Karlsson/Hoffman and Ubergate), and trade away franchise players in their prime. The TV show the Simpsons is poking fun at the Sens for crying out loud.

It can’t get much worse, so that is the main upside.

There is skepticism on how much this team can actually improve with the track record of not being able to retain talent.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

It would be good if Melnyk would disappear. I would guess he is a big factor in not being able to keep or attract talent.

It is getting tougher for all Canadian teams. Melnyk compounds the problem.

It would be good if Melnyk would disappear. I would guess he is a big factor in not being able to keep or attract talent.

It is getting tougher for all Canadian teams. Melnyk compounds the problem.
- Aetherial

He makes it so there's one less Canadian team to attract free agent talent... that guy is bad for hockey.

Spatso is right though... he's not here for long and the Sens have some really solid talent up and coming.

The BPA concept is both vague and overblown.

First off, there's very little consensus on what comprises a BPA prospect. Bob McKenzie does a pretty impressive job of generating a relative consensus among scouts, but it's not like there's a defined hierarchy of BPA that exists. Just a few years back, an awful lot of people thought Columbus was insane for taking Dubois over Puljujarvi, but they certainly had that one right. Scheifele, Barkov, and Petersson are also recent examples of teams going past the consensus BPA with high picks to get the player they wanted at the position they wanted. Even if it's just a function of risk-reward tolerance, the only thing that matters is each team's scouting reports.

Second, one of the main principles of BPA is that you can easily trade for what your team needs afterwards, but I would suggest this is increasingly not the case. Go ask Edmonton what it cost them to get a young "top-4" RHD when everyone and their dog knew they needed one. Vegas also exploited that kind of organizational situation to great advantage in the expansion draft, and I'm sure teams have been trying to hold a young team like Toronto over the barrel as they look for d-man upgrades. Not to mention that having too much concurrent depth at a given position means you're unlikely to be able to showcase the players properly to get maximum value. Think back to the Anderson-Bishop-Lehner situation, if you need a refresher. In short, the more obvious your team need, the more likely you'll get pennies on the dollar in trade.

To this end, using the Jones-Johansen trade as an example of the BPA mindset paying off is more than a bit ironic. For one thing, Nashville gave up what is pretty clearly the more valuable asset in the trade, both in terms of ability and contract. Plus, if they really needed a big centre, they could have simply drafted Monahan straight-up two picks later... who is not only a better player than Johansen, but also more than 2 years younger. And when you consider the increasingly high trade premium the league places on young d-men, it makes the deal all the more of a questionable "win" for Nashville.

Naturally, I'm not saying that you just go crazy and draft whoever... but if your team desperately needs a young player at a given position (especially one that commands a trade premium like C or RHD), then I would seriously question the extent that you can just trade for one of those with a supposedly equivalent young winger. And for my money, the top priority of the coming draft is a quality RHD, because outside of JBD I'm not sure I see a single RHD prospect with anything close to having legitimate top-4 potential. For those Ceci "fans" out there, you can believe that will lead to him getting more long-term consideration if there's no improvement in the organization depth at that position in the very near future.

As you know I think bottom is a process and you need to hit a full bottom before you can begin a serious recovery. A full bottom is more emotional than it is intellectual. I have believed for a long time the Sens will likely attain full bottom on draft day. This is good, once you hit bottom other things will start to look positive almost immediately.

But, it may be better than I thought. Yesterday the Simpson's made fun of the Sens implying nothing could be as bad as being a Sens fan. Nowhere to go but up.
- spatso

no offense but this thinking is dumb

Yes we have Chabot, Brannstrom, Tkachuk but the Sens still need more pieces here - and anything below top 5 in the draft means sh*t. I'm sick of this, we got Karlsson at 15, Chabot at 18, so we're fine.

This team can have 15th overall the next 4 years and get no where beyond game 7 of the conf finals again. I want at least 1 or 2 top pieces. Almost every single cup winner does

no offense but this thinking is dumb

Yes we have Chabot, Brannstrom, Tkachuk but the Sens still need more pieces here - and anything below top 5 in the draft means sh*t. I'm sick of this, we got Karlsson at 15, Chabot at 18, so we're fine.

This team can have 15th overall the next 4 years and get no where beyond game 7 of the conf finals again. I want at least 1 or 2 top pieces. Almost every single cup winner does
- AlfieisKing

I don't disagree. In fact, when you say you want "1 or 2 top pieces" it means you have already accepted the underlying consequences that comes with that goal. Namely, you are hoping for a bottom finish in the standings. Losing now has a purpose. It becomes an end in itself. Your goal is not the playoffs or even winning the next game. There is a full emotional bottoming out when your priority becomes Byfield/Lafreniere over any attempt at a playoff pass.

When we achieve emotional bottom, we feel good about being patient and working towards long term goals over short term gains (measured in terms in wins and losses). Even the presence of Melnyk is less upsetting because we know he can only help in keeping team winning at a minimum.

I don't disagree. In fact, when you say you want "1 or 2 top pieces" it means you have already accepted the underlying consequences that comes with that goal. Namely, you are hoping for a bottom finish in the standings. Losing now has a purpose. It becomes an end in itself. Your goal is not the playoffs or even winning the next game. There is a full emotional bottoming out when your priority becomes Byfield/Lafreniere over any attempt at a playoff pass.

When we achieve emotional bottom, we feel good about being patient and working towards long term goals over short term gains (measured in terms in wins and losses). Even the presence of Melnyk is less upsetting because we know he can only help in keeping team winning at a minimum.
- spatso

Right again spatso...

Yes we have Chabot, Brannstrom, Tkachuk but the Sens still need more pieces here - and anything below top 5 in the draft means sh*t. I'm sick of this, we got Karlsson at 15, Chabot at 18, so we're fine.
This team can have 15th overall the next 4 years and get no where beyond game 7 of the conf finals again. I want at least 1 or 2 top pieces. Almost every single cup winner does
- AlfieisKing

Just don't go pinning your hopes on Lafreniere. The exact same math that spared the Senators the indignity of handing over the #1 pick to Colorado will work just as effectively against them next year. You're much better of planning on having maybe a couple of #4-6 overall picks in the fray. Over the past 5 drafts, that looks like this...

2014 - Bennett, Dal Colle, Virtanen
2015 - Marner, Hanifin, Zacha
2016 - Puljujarvi, Juolevi, M. Tkachuk
2017 - Makar, Petersson, Glass
2018 - B. Tkachuk, Hayton, Zadina

It's harder to predict some of the more recent picks in terms of eventual role, but there are an awful lot of names there that are far from being considered a "top piece". People should really worry less about the draft pick number, be thankful they appear to have nabbed a building block in Chabot, and hope they strike more paydirt with one of the many 1st/2nd round picks they have over the next 3 drafts.

Just don't go pinning your hopes on Lafreniere. The exact same math that spared the Senators the indignity of handing over the #1 pick to Colorado will work just as effectively against them next year. You're much better of planning on having maybe a couple of #4-6 overall picks in the fray. Over the past 5 drafts, that looks like this...

2014 - Bennett, Dal Colle, Virtanen
2015 - Marner, Hanifin, Zacha
2016 - Puljujarvi, Juolevi, M. Tkachuk
2017 - Makar, Petersson, Glass
2018 - B. Tkachuk, Hayton, Zadina

It's harder to predict some of the more recent picks in terms of eventual role, but there are an awful lot of names there that are far from being considered a "top piece". People should really worry less about the draft pick number, be thankful they appear to have nabbed a building block in Chabot, and hope they strike more paydirt with one of the many 1st/2nd round picks they have over the next 3 drafts.
- khawk

Agree

A kid I’m super stoked about next year, I think he’ll jump high into the top 10 (ranked around 13 right now) is Justin Barron. I’ve been watching him play for 2 years in Halifax now. The kid was arguably the best dman, on a very good Halifax team, at 16 years old. He’s already 6’1, he’s a great puck mover, solid in his own end, plays physical, and shoots right.

He’ll be playing in the memorial cup this year, watch him if you get a chance. If we get the CBJ pick (and they falter a bit) he would be a PERFECT addition to our solid group of young D

A kid I’m super stoked about next year, I think he’ll jump high into the top 10 (ranked around 13 right now) is Justin Barron. I’ve been watching him play for 2 years in Halifax now. The kid was arguably the best dman, on a very good Halifax team, at 16 years old. He’s already 6’1, he’s a great puck mover, solid in his own end, plays physical, and shoots right.

He’ll be playing in the memorial cup this year, watch him if you get a chance. If we get the CBJ pick (and they falter a bit) he would be a PERFECT addition to our solid group of young D
- sensarmy_11

Would you take Caufield this year if he drops to 17-19.

Once training camp opens the Sens will have a bunch of rookies hoping to make the NHL on opening night. There is going to be lots of good stuff to follow. Good chance the Sens will have 3 first round picks in 2020 in what is thought to be an outstanding draft. Lots of reasons to begin feeling pretty good about the next couple of years. The Sens will be fun to follow.

Once training camp opens the Sens will have a bunch of rookies hoping to make the NHL on opening night. There is going to be lots of good stuff to follow. Good chance the Sens will have 3 first round picks in 2020 in what is thought to be an outstanding draft. Lots of reasons to begin feeling pretty good about the next couple of years. The Sens will be fun to follow.
- spatso

Be curious to see who in Belleville makes it ].
I'd be happier if Boedker and Smith weren't here, but we may need them to reach the floor (and no one would want them).

Just don't go pinning your hopes on Lafreniere. The exact same math that spared the Senators the indignity of handing over the #1 pick to Colorado will work just as effectively against them next year. You're much better of planning on having maybe a couple of #4-6 overall picks in the fray. Over the past 5 drafts, that looks like this...

2014 - Bennett, Dal Colle, Virtanen
2015 - Marner, Hanifin, Zacha
2016 - Puljujarvi, Juolevi, M. Tkachuk
2017 - Makar, Petersson, Glass
2018 - B. Tkachuk, Hayton, Zadina

It's harder to predict some of the more recent picks in terms of eventual role, but there are an awful lot of names there that are far from being considered a "top piece". People should really worry less about the draft pick number, be thankful they appear to have nabbed a building block in Chabot, and hope they strike more paydirt with one of the many 1st/2nd round picks they have over the next 3 drafts.
- khawk

If you finish at the bottom of the standings, can you drop lower than #4? And, we can always hope that both Columbus and San Jose crash and burn next year and they both get a chance at the lottery draw.

Once training camp opens the Sens will have a bunch of rookies hoping to make the NHL on opening night. There is going to be lots of good stuff to follow. Good chance the Sens will have 3 first round picks in 2020 in what is thought to be an outstanding draft. Lots of reasons to begin feeling pretty good about the next couple of years. The Sens will be fun to follow.
- spatso

they already are spatso, they already are... i'm looking forward to watching the young players come together with a bit of veteran leadership acquired over the summer... need someone to mentor some of the younger players...

If you finish at the bottom of the standings, can you drop lower than #4? And, we can always hope that both Columbus and San Jose crash and burn next year and they both get a chance at the lottery draw.
- spatso

can't drop further than 4th if you finish dead last...

If you finish at the bottom of the standings, can you drop lower than #4? And, we can always hope that both Columbus and San Jose crash and burn next year and they both get a chance at the lottery draw.
- spatso

If you finish dead last, you have more than an 80% of not getting the 1st overall pick, and better than a 50% chance at picking at #4. However, all of that assumes that another team doesn't crash harder than the Senators do next season, which can't just be taken for granted at this point.

Would you take Caufield this year if he drops to 17-19.
- david22

He’ll yes, but doubt he drops out of the top ten

He’ll yes, but doubt he drops out of the top ten
- sensarmy_11

It's possible that he'll be gone in the top-10, but a lot of published rankings have him lined up more in the 10-15 range.
http://www.mynhldraft.com.../2019-nhl-draft-rankings/

Of course, with Columbus now up 2-1 in the series, it greatly increases the odds of their 2019 first round pick being at around 28th overall. It will be interesting to see if they take a flyer on Spencer Knight if he falls into that range, given that they also have the #32 pick. Personally, I'd be inclined to roll the dice on him, because there really is no substitute for having solid goaltending. There's some intriguing potential in the likes of Gustavsson, Hogberg, Daccord, and Mandolese, but just as much uncertainty about their realistic upside.