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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Impressions of, and questions concerning--F, Vladimir Sobotka
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dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

May 7 @ 2:24 PM ET
Duchene isn’t signing for less than 7yrs
And he won’t be in the #1 Center role here
His numbers will revert to the 55ish point range most likely

Whereas Skinner has the top winger role with a great center,
and this is more likely to keep his numbers up

- jdfitz77



I don’t believe that unfortunately.

The better money spent is on the Center.

Now if Skinner comes in at 8ish that’s a different story.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

May 7 @ 2:27 PM ET
Duchene isn’t signing for less than 7yrs
And he won’t be in the #1 Center role here
His numbers will revert to the 55ish point range most likely

Whereas Skinner has the top winger role with a great center,
and this is more likely to keep his numbers up

- jdfitz77


Strange to me that some see Duchene at a team friendly deal vs Skinner at the high end as an active choice this team gets to make. If you move on from Skinner, you most likely end up with neither.
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

May 7 @ 2:29 PM ET
Strange to me that some see Duchene at a team friendly deal vs Skinner at the high end as an active choice this team gets to make. If you move on from Skinner, you most likely end up with neither.
- Lunaion



9-9.5 isn’t a team friendly deal for either.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

May 7 @ 2:30 PM ET
Strange to me that some see Duchene at a team friendly deal vs Skinner at the high end as an active choice this team gets to make. If you move on from Skinner, you most likely end up with neither.
- Lunaion


Due to the legal tampering period at least you would know by July 1st where you stand with both. We are offering Skinner a deal regardless I’d think
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 2:37 PM ET
I don’t believe that unfortunately.

The better money spent is on the Center.

Now if Skinner comes in at 8ish that’s a different story.

- dadeadhead


If u don’t believe Skinner will keep the numbers up, that’s one thing

But i definitely don’t see how you think Duchene could keep up 70+ point numbers when his role will be REDUCED from 1C to 2C
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 2:38 PM ET
Strange to me that some see Duchene at a team friendly deal vs Skinner at the high end as an active choice this team gets to make. If you move on from Skinner, you most likely end up with neither.
- Lunaion


Neither is actually the better option imo Overpaying for a 55pt 2C at 9mil...
That’s just not justifiable
notalent
Buffalo Sabres
Location: lake placid, NY
Joined: 02.26.2011

May 7 @ 2:40 PM ET
Then the next GM will come in and reap the benefits of Botts’ patience. The last thing we need is Botts to pull a GMTM to try and save his job and blow everything up again and make moves to try and win this year at the expense of our future.
- Pegullaville


Agreed. Putting a GM on a short leash entices him to make short term deals that will keep us out of contention.
We don't need Botts' making deals from a position of weakness either. For all the trash that gets thrown Tim Murray's way, he never made a deal so completely awful as the ROR to St. Louis deal.
If I'm Pegula I give him 2 years to figure out this mess.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 2:45 PM ET
Agreed. Putting a GM on a short leash entices him to make short term deals that will keep us out of contention.
We don't need Botts' making deals from a position of weakness either. For all the trash that gets thrown Tim Murray's way, he never made a deal so completely awful as the ROR to St. Louis deal.
If I'm Pegula I give him 2 years to figure out this mess.

- notalent


As long as we make progress this year (and we really should),
then Botts should be safe for another year
If not playoffs this year,
then he almost certainly needs to get us there by next season then
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

May 7 @ 2:49 PM ET
The average shelf life of a Pegula GM is 2 years. He's very much on borrowed time, and I think he probably knows that, whether it's been articulated to him or not
- jcragcrumple


How many GMs can have (3) bottom 5 finishes in a row and keep their job that isn't associated with Edmonton?

Serious question, I don't know. I'd imagine that most are fired. Botts isn't stupid. It doesn't need to be said.
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

May 7 @ 2:52 PM ET
But Skinner’s numbers are UP playing on the same line as Jack

Duchene wouldn’t be
he’d be 2C here, not putting up the 1C numbers he had in Ottawa this year

- jdfitz77


So if Skinner's getting 63 points with help from Jack, then 9M is outrageous isn't it?
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

May 7 @ 2:59 PM ET
Neither is actually the better option imo Overpaying for a 55pt 2C at 9mil...
That’s just not justifiable

- jdfitz77



But paying a guy who’s shooting percentage changes like a woman’s mood is justifiable?
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 7 @ 3:01 PM ET
Then the next GM will come in and reap the benefits of Botts’ patience. The last thing we need is Botts to pull a GMTM to try and save his job and blow everything up again and make moves to try and win this year at the expense of our future.
- Pegullaville


At some point - and i would argue that point is this year - the future is now. If he can't make it a 90 point team in 3 years, then he failed
TheHank
Location: Yawn.
Joined: 01.11.2017

May 7 @ 3:03 PM ET
But paying a guy who’s shooting percentage changes like a woman’s mood is justifiable?
- dadeadhead

https://www.hockey-refere.../players/p/pointbr01.html
I just saw this the other day, points shooting percentage this year. 21.5%
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 3:06 PM ET
So if Skinner's getting 63 points with help from Jack, then 9M is outrageous isn't it?
- RhinoFan


I’d be arguing that Skinner’s value is based on his GOALS, and not “points”
I feel goals are much more important,
especially when considering secondary assists

But yeah, there’s an argument to be made that 9mil is too much for Skinner

What i don’t see though,
is how Duchene’s number don’t drop from 70 back to 55ish points (with a reduced role as 2C instead of 1C)
And since i don’t think he’ll even score 30 goals as the 2C
There’s just no way to justify overpaying Duchene at 9mil per

*and even if he is a Center,
if it gets to the point we don’t want him at that number... no one else will either
So I’m certainly not basing my decision on who to sign on what their tradablility will be like in 4yrs or so
Not when I’m paying someone 9mil
That thought shouldn’t be a part of it
Otherwise, that player should definitely not be signed to that type of $$$
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 3:08 PM ET
But paying a guy who’s shooting percentage changes like a woman’s mood is justifiable?
- dadeadhead


First of all...
i didn’t bring up Skinner
WHAT I SAID was that paying Duchene 9mil would be a mistake

Skinner’s worth is an entire different discussion that has ZERO to do with Duchene being worth 9mil or not
SDSabre
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.05.2014

May 7 @ 3:11 PM ET
The problem is Rice’s prime years are after Montana gets hurt and gets traded.

His catch numbers jump in a big way 446 catches to 604 catches or 35.43%

(1st 6 years with mostly Montana throwing the ball compared the next 6 post Montana)

Edit: side note the next 6 yrs including the injury year is 406 catches.

- dadeadhead


I guess I don't see your point. Montana is replaced by Young, another HoFer, during his prime years.
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

May 7 @ 3:24 PM ET
So if Skinner's getting 63 points with help from Jack, then 9M is outrageous isn't it?
- RhinoFan



buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

May 7 @ 3:25 PM ET
I’d be arguing that Skinner’s value is based on his GOALS, and not “points”
I feel goals are much more important,
especially when considering secondary assists

But yeah, there’s an argument to be made that 9mil is too much for Skinner

What i don’t see though,
is how Duchene’s number don’t drop from 70 back to 55ish points (with a reduced role as 2C instead of 1C)
And since i don’t think he’ll even score 30 goals as the 2C
There’s just no way to justify overpaying Duchene at 9mil per

*and even if he is a Center,
if it gets to the point we don’t want him at that number... no one else will either
So I’m certainly not basing my decision on who to sign on what their tradablility will be like in 4yrs or so
Not when I’m paying someone 9mil
That thought shouldn’t be a part of it
Otherwise, that player should definitely not be signed to that type of $$$

- jdfitz77



There are very few players that should, and already too many players in this league that are/will be after this year. If this team was a player or two a way from championship contention, it might be worth it because a Cup in the short run is absolutely worth the potential cap hell later. When you're not close to it, you've lowered your ceiling way too much.
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

May 7 @ 3:28 PM ET
I’d be arguing that Skinner’s value is based on his GOALS, and not “points”
I feel goals are much more important,
especially when considering secondary assists

But yeah, there’s an argument to be made that 9mil is too much for Skinner

What i don’t see though,
is how Duchene’s number don’t drop from 70 back to 55ish points (with a reduced role as 2C instead of 1C)
And since i don’t think he’ll even score 30 goals as the 2C
There’s just no way to justify overpaying Duchene at 9mil per

*and even if he is a Center,
if it gets to the point we don’t want him at that number... no one else will either
So I’m certainly not basing my decision on who to sign on what their tradablility will be like in 4yrs or so
Not when I’m paying someone 9mil
That thought shouldn’t be a part of it
Otherwise, that player should definitely not be signed to that type of $$$

- jdfitz77


Fwiw, I'm not interested with either at 9M. Was just making the point that if we're justifying Skinner, at 63 points, for 9M, Duchene at the same price is a similar deal.

Duchene has more value as a center, Skinner has more as a goal scorer. Those two cancel for me. Equally bad ideas in my book.
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

May 7 @ 3:31 PM ET
I guess I don't see your point. Montana is replaced by Young, another HoFer, during his prime years.
- SDSabre



The Montana years weren’t as pass happy as the Young years in the league. His numbers increased 35%. Imagine the numbers he’d have had in the early years.

It’s not that he wasted the early part of his career but he put up better numbers 29-34 than 23-28. One would think the opposite.
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

May 7 @ 3:37 PM ET
First of all...
i didn’t bring up Skinner
WHAT I SAID was that paying Duchene 9mil would be a mistake

Skinner’s worth is an entire different discussion that has ZERO to do with Duchene being worth 9mil or not

- jdfitz77



Well 1st of all sir, The comparison was Skinner or Duchene getting 9-9.5 from the Sabre’s at the beginning.

If you’re going to chime in then follow along

OneKaneOneCup
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 06.21.2013

May 7 @ 3:38 PM ET
But paying a guy who’s shooting percentage changes like a woman’s mood is justifiable?
- dadeadhead

Skinner generates chances and shots like an elite forward.

He isn’t a great PP player historically which is why he isn’t a 70-80 point winger and has also rarely played with a good center.

He’s a top 10 NHL winger.

Duchene isn’t even a top 25 center
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

May 7 @ 3:51 PM ET
Fwiw, I'm not interested with either at 9M. Was just making the point that if we're justifying Skinner, at 63 points, for 9M, Duchene at the same price is a similar deal.

Duchene has more value as a center, Skinner has more as a goal scorer. Those two cancel for me. Equally bad ideas in my book.

- RhinoFan


Fair enough
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Hail Satan
Joined: 10.07.2010

May 7 @ 3:56 PM ET
I will wait to hear what andrew peters has to say
- homiedclown


I can't wait to hear what Schopp has to say.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

May 7 @ 3:57 PM ET
I can't wait to hear what Schopp has to say.
- Wetbandit1


- No one, ever
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