If Ferland plays with Sid? Yuck. I don’t want to touch that at all. I am not interested inn ferland.
- j.boyd919

Yeah I dont want Ferland and a big part of that is the overpaid contract I think he will get. If you could get him for 2 mill'ish maybe, but hes going to be around 4 or more I imagine. If so, hard pass from me.

Imagine the Leafs lose him...
- MattStrat

There is a golden opportunity to deal with the leafs here a little. Now, you are all going to flame me for this one, but... Marleau for JJ or possibly Gudbranson.

Yes, the Pens add salary for this season on an aging winger, but this helps them out in the long-run. It's also not as if Marleau wouldn't be a good third liner for the Pens.

The leafs are in a very tight spot and not only do they need to fill out their defense, but they will need to sign Kapanen and Johnsson. They will have to sacrifice and sign some lower end cheaper players if they want to keep Marner.

EDIT: Nylander was their big mistake. They should have traded his rights or did a sign and trade. I could see them dumping Kadri for futures to make the room.

Hornqvist is good and he is a solid player. The issue is more with his contract and his production value to the team.
- j.boyd919

This. I'm not the biggest fan of Hornqvist, but there is much I do like about him and his game. His contract is just awful. Of course I hope he bounces back though.

EDIT:
My biggest issue with Hornqvist is his transition game is TERRIBLE. Yeah, once he's in the zone he's a solid possession player, but helping get the puck out of their zone into the opposition? One of the worst.

I like his energy, his heart, how he sacrifices his body out here, but I just don't think he fits what this team needs right now. Any center he plays with has to pick up his slack in transition.

There is a golden opportunity to deal with the leafs here a little. Now, you are all going to flame me for this one, but... Marleau for JJ or possibly Gudbranson.

Yes, the Pens add salary for this season on an aging winger, but this helps them out in the long-run. It's also not as if Marleau wouldn't be a good third liner for the Pens.

The leafs are in a very tight spot and not only do they need to fill out their defense, but they will need to sign Kapanen and Johnsson. They will have to sacrifice and sign some lower end cheaper players if they want to keep Marner.

EDIT: Nylander was their big mistake. They should have traded his rights or did a sign and trade. I could see them dumping Kadri for futures to make the room.
- Rinosaur

Not the worst idea out there. So... you dont fail, this time.

Not the worst idea out there. So... you dont fail, this time.
- Guile

Hahaha what a relief. I'm really curious to see if they're going to cap-dump Kadri.

Hahaha what a relief. I'm really curious to see if they're going to cap-dump Kadri.
- Rinosaur

Two postseason suspensions in a row... I'd dump him regardless.

There is a golden opportunity to deal with the leafs here a little. Now, you are all going to flame me for this one, but... Marleau for JJ or possibly Gudbranson.

Yes, the Pens add salary for this season on an aging winger, but this helps them out in the long-run. It's also not as if Marleau wouldn't be a good third liner for the Pens.

The leafs are in a very tight spot and not only do they need to fill out their defense, but they will need to sign Kapanen and Johnsson. They will have to sacrifice and sign some lower end cheaper players if they want to keep Marner.

EDIT: Nylander was their big mistake. They should have traded his rights or did a sign and trade. I could see them dumping Kadri for futures to make the room.
- Rinosaur

Leafs want right handed D-men, so maybe they'd want Gud...maybe.

The Pens however, I just cant see them taking a 39 year old winger in major decline that has a 6.25mill cap hit. They're too cap strapped for this.

Leafs want right handed D-men, so maybe they'd want Gud...maybe.

The Pens however, I just cant see them taking a 39 year old winger in major decline that has a 6.25mill cap hit. They're too cap strapped for this.
- MattStrat

Well, it's a short-term strain for a long-term fix, but obviously I see the issue. If the Pens were able to make room in other areas they could really make sure they extend this window.

There maybe a way to get Schultz involved with this with other pieces were used to bring in his replacement.

Leafs want right handed D-men, so maybe they'd want Gud...maybe.

The Pens however, I just cant see them taking a 39 year old winger in major decline that has a 6.25mill cap hit. They're too cap strapped for this.
- MattStrat

It’s only one season. Gives them long term relief.

Hornqvist is good and he is a solid player. The issue is more with his contract and his production value to the team.

Phil’s poor analytics are offset by elite point production (playmaking ability and finishing ability), which is rare and having production like that can overcome poor analytics when your potting points the way he does.

I get that Phil’s underlying numbers aren’t that great but he’s a +129 goal differential at all strengths because of his elite PP abilities and that outweighs his poor analytics. If he had poor analytics and was dog poop on the power play then I’m with you. Ship him out.
- j.boyd919

In that same 3 year sample Hornqvist is +139. I'm worried about decline for both. If Hornqvist can get 20/45 I'm ok with his contract.

Prorated for a healthy season, he was close though the second half was worrisome. End of the contract, no way. But even this year he led the team in all situations scoring differential percentage both real and expected, as he does every year.

It’s only one season. Gives them long term relief.
- j.boyd919

Yeah I get that but on the Pens side they shouldn't be messing with just one season at this stage. They dont have many seasons left with the core being effective. So adding a 39 year old in major decline winger that counts against over 6 million of space is probably not a good idea.

Its a better idea for the Leafs.

Would they retain salary for him for one season I wonder?

Yeah I get that but on the Pens side they shouldn't be messing with just one season at this stage. They dont have many seasons left with the core being effective. So adding a 39 year old in major decline winger that counts against over 6 million of space is probably not a good idea.

Its a better idea for the Leafs.

Would they retain salary for him for one season I wonder?
- MattStrat

Probably not since the point is to make room for Marner. However, I wonder if there’s a deal to get Nylander with some retained salary. Not sure who’d be going the other way.

If Ferland plays with Sid? Yuck. I don’t want to touch that at all. I am not interested inn ferland.
- j.boyd919

GMJR has already expressed interest in the past, it makes sense that he’ll still top the wish list. He could be a Kunitz type player. Could bloom late and pot 25-30 for the next 5 years, idk. Personally, I’d rather have Panik

Imagine the Leafs lose him...
- MattStrat

I mean, they wouldn’t lose him for nothing obviously but I think they’ll match anything and trade other guys initially like Kadri, Brown, there are rumors around Zaitsev as well

Probably not since the point is to make room for Marner. However, I wonder if there’s a deal to get Nylander with some retained salary. Not sure who’d be going the other way.
- Rinosaur

I keep thinking that Marner has one more year left on his ELC...not the case.

Hornqvist is good and he is a solid player. The issue is more with his contract and his production value to the team.

Phil’s poor analytics are offset by elite point production (playmaking ability and finishing ability), which is rare and having production like that can overcome poor analytics when your potting points the way he does.

I get that Phil’s underlying numbers aren’t that great but he’s a +129 goal differential at all strengths because of his elite PP abilities and that outweighs his poor analytics. If he had poor analytics and was dog poop on the power play then I’m with you. Ship him out.
- j.boyd919

So in that sample you used, Phil is +130 on the PP. Which means he's actually -1 total at all other situations for the past 3 years. PP, that's elite, but otherwise that's replacement level.

I appreciate the argument you're making and that you are actually looking at ES data. And I do agree Phil's elite PP production gives him positive overall value. Just not as much as most people do.

Zucker is worth an extra 10 goals at ES on average so if Schultz can be just 10 worse on the PP than Phil it would even out and not be the end of the world. (I also expect Phil's numbers to go down and Zucker's to rebound, even more if he played with Malkin.)

I am worried about getting a worse return than Minnesota though.

Yeah I get that but on the Pens side they shouldn't be messing with just one season at this stage. They dont have many seasons left with the core being effective. So adding a 39 year old in major decline winger that counts against over 6 million of space is probably not a good idea.

Its a better idea for the Leafs.

Would they retain salary for him for one season I wonder?
- MattStrat

I actually feel the opposite. The only swap that makes sense would be JJ for Zaitsev which has been bandied around online. Sean Tierney has us receiving the WAR advantage but the Leafs then gain a bit of cap relief

Sportsnet notes the writing may be on the wall for Kadri and that they could spread the wealth moving forward by using Willie as a full time 3C. Kadri is a solid player but I don’t want a dirty player on my team which is another reason why I would prefer the cheaper Panik to Ferland. My guess is the Leafs roll with their younger defenders to start the season and add a righty before the deadline just like how we used to get wingers every deadline

I agree with you Tojo. You’ve always been a pretty on the ball individual. Some are concerned that 72 won’t recover from his recent concussions. I know Vic wasn’t discussing him today but he has shared that opinion in the past and it’s obviously got some merit
- WSCTeton17

Yeah decline is a concern for Hornqvist. I think it is for Kessel too, and Malkin, which is why I don't think keeping them together and expecting better results is wise. But I don't want to get too far off track talking Hornqvist. I think he's still better than most appreciate, always has been the case, but I can see the arguments for moving him.

Yeah I dont want Ferland and a big part of that is the overpaid contract I think he will get. If you could get him for 2 mill'ish maybe, but hes going to be around 4 or more I imagine. If so, hard pass from me.
- MattStrat

I don’t recall exactly but his next contract was why Calgary wanted him as part of the Hanifin trade. Similar to Skinner in CAR, they already knew they weren’t paying what he was asking for and I believe the rumor back then was 6 which has likely come down since then

Probably not since the point is to make room for Marner. However, I wonder if there’s a deal to get Nylander with some retained salary. Not sure who’d be going the other way.
- Rinosaur

Not trying to argue, but Dubas gave Willie his word (which he admitted to publicly) that he won’t be traded. If GMs start making false promises I imagine that hurts their credibility for signing vets without trade clauses moving forward

So in that sample you used, Phil is +130 on the PP. Which means he's actually -1 total at all other situations for the past 3 years. PP, that's elite, but otherwise that's replacement level.

I appreciate the argument you're making and that you are actually looking at ES data. And I do agree Phil's elite PP production gives him positive overall value. Just not as much as most people do.

Zucker is worth an extra 10 goals at ES on average so if Schultz can be just 10 worse on the PP than Phil it would even out and not be the end of the world. (I also expect Phil's numbers to go down and Zucker's to rebound, even more if he played with Malkin.)

I am worried about getting a worse return than Minnesota though.
- Tojo.

Not to mention if JJ and Phil (who as you eluded to drags Geno down at ES) are shipped out then Malkin’s numbers would also improve which further improves our goal differentials

Not trying to argue, but Dubas gave Willie his word (which he admitted to publicly) that he won’t be traded. If GMs start making false promises I imagine that hurts their credibility for signing vets without trade clauses moving forward
- WSCTeton17

Ah, had no idea about that.

I like a lot of the Leafs thoughts. I'd try to swing JJ and Schultz for Kadri and Zaitsev.

I like a lot of the Leafs thoughts. I'd try to swing JJ and Schultz for Kadri and Zaitsev.
- MacPatty

I have a feeling Kadri can be had for picks/prospects.

Guddy 1 mil retained for Kadri. Maybe they're tired of getting pushed around by the B's.

Flip Kadri to Min for Zucker? I honestly believe Sid hates Kadri.