here is Carplinello's full article:
Some things I think I know about the Rangers’ offseason, which gets shoved into high gear as the NHL Entry Draft (June 21-22 in Vancouver) approaches and either Kaapo Kakko or Jack Hughes becomes their No.1 prospect:
It’s been reported here a number of times that Rangers GM Jeff Gorton, with some cap space and the No. 2 pick in the draft (plus No. 20, No. 49 and No. 58 in the first two rounds) is looking at this as an opportunity to accelerate the rebuild.
The hiring of John Davidson as team president, I believe, further accentuates that plan.
This is a chance for the Rangers to make changes, some big, some a bit smaller, and to try to be competitive as early as next season. Perhaps even more than competitive if things go well. But they’ll have to hit some home runs.
Let’s Make a Deal: Don’t be surprised at all if one or more of the Rangers’ top prospects, one of those drafted or acquired in the last three summers, is involved in a deal.
I think the Rangers are going to be making some hockey trades, too. Just simple player-for-player deals. Like the old days. These assets they’ve acquired since the Derek Stepan trade kicked off the rebuild are just that. Assets. When you accumulate as many as the Rangers have (and so quickly) some become your foundation, some become chips to play to fortify that foundation.
The trade direction, I believe, will be to improve the defense for now and the future.
They can also trade to move up in the draft, perhaps, if there’s a player they like a lot but don’t think they’ll get with No. 20 (from Winnipeg in the Kevin Hayes trade). Or they can move down. Or they can deal that pick or some of their other picks as parts of packages to address a more immediate need. A top-pair defenseman? Hmm.
Free doesn’t mean “free”: The top free-agency target will be Artemi Panarin (but with an asterisk, because there could be another No. 1 as the Rangers look to go the offer sheet route. More on that in a minute).
The Rangers will be heavily in on Panarin and it will take something in the seven years, $11 million per ballpark for a 27-year-old gamebreaker who had “only” 28 goals last season, but more than a point per game for Columbus.
He won’t be easy to get because of varying factors, but the Rangers historically are pretty damn good recruiters.
Several – if not many – teams will be in on Panarin as well, most notably Florida, which has no state income tax, his former Chicago coach Joel Quenneville and is expected to go deep into the cashbox for his Columbus teammate and fellow Russian Sergei Bobrovsky.
The Rangers, on the other hand, have a new boss who knows Panarin well from Columbus. They also have New York City and its Russian population (plus Panarin is known to want to play in a big city, so they have NYC over Sunrise, Fla.). And they will surely attempt to sell Panarin on the idea that their rebuild, now with Kakko (or Hughes) and 2018 first-rounder Vitali Kravtsov, is on pace to arrive at competitiveness before Florida.
Offer sheets just don’t happen: Until now? There’s been a lot of noise that this could be the year it happens, with teams up against the salary cap and in trouble with their top restricted free agents. We’ll believe it when we see it, but it seems plausible, even likely, the Rangers will make an attempt in that area.
The Rangers, though, won’t target RFAs whose teams will match, i.e. Mitch Marner with Toronto.
As I’ve written previously, Brayden Point makes sense because he is not only young and prolific, but because Tampa Bay is really up against the wall with its salary cap.
Point’s age (23) and eye-popping stats (41 goals, 51 assists in 79 games last season) and the fact that he plays center – a 1-2 punch of Point/Mika Zibanejad isn’t a bad look, is it? – makes him a prime target. How the contract could be structured to make it impossible for Tampa to match will be an interesting exercise for Davidson and Gorton.
But this is happening. At least the attempt is happening. The Rangers will surely talk to Point during the week prior to July 1, when clubs are permitted to meet with prospective free agents.
The patience preached by Davidson and Gorton, I believe, means if they strike out on their targeted free agents, they won’t go chasing others for the sake of chasing. Could there be lower-level free agents who improve the current roster? Yes. But they won’t go hog wild as the Rangers of the distant past would do and start tossing big contracts at older players. They just won’t.
People ask about the heavy compensation for signing a prime RFA. Let’s say the compensation for Point is four first-rounders. Well, do you think if the Rangers draft in the first round for the next four years (starting in 2020) that they’ll come up with another Point? And even if they do, in what year will that “next Point” be ready to be a top player? 2022? 2024?
So the Rangers’ top-six would look a lot different: If the Rangers add Panarin to Kakko, Kravtsov, Zibanejad and Filip Chytil – who will be expected to take a big leap forward in ’19-20 as he turns 20 on Sept. 5 – and a very young and reliable bottom six, well, that’s a darn good start.
Also, if they add Point instead of Panarin, Chytil becomes a winger. If it’s Panarin, Chytil is a center.
Raiding the next borough: Some of my colleagues at The Athletic have mentioned the possibility of the Rangers signing the Islanders’ Jordan Eberle. The 29-year-old made $6 million per on his last contract and scored 19 goals. I just don’t see it. I don’t see any way he’s better than Chris Kreider. Or maybe even Pavel Buchnevich. More on those two later because there are decisions to be made on both and you may not like them. If I were raiding the Isles’ free agents, I’d go for Anders Lee, 28, who is a much better player and coming off a $3.75 million cap hit deal. I don’t see either happening.
Biggest trade chips: These moves are all interrelated (which is why we’re doing this in one story, instead of separates on signings and trades, etc.)
Kreider is the next big decision. The Rangers don’t want to be in the position for a third year in a row where they’re shopping their unrestricted free agents-to-be in a deadline selloff. I think they want to commit to Kreider now or send him off.
Moving on from Kreider, if they do, won’t be easy. But in the previous three years they’ve moved on from Stepan, Rick Nash, Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Mats Zuccarello, Hayes and Michael Grabner. There is no room for sentimentality. It’s strictly business, especially given the Rangers’ current position.
When he’s on, Kreider is just a force, a complete-package power forward whose combo of speed, size, strength and shot are not easily matched. When he’s on, he’s almost as good as it gets. But the problem is he’s not always on and when he’s not, he can go invisible.
For more than half a season last year he was on pace for 40-plus goals. He finished with a typical Kreider total of 28 (with 24 assists) in 79 games. Is that worth $7 million per for six or seven years on a new deal? I’ve asked Jeff Gorton about this – about signing Kreider as a priority and about not going into the next deadline as sellers again – and both times he was tellingly non-committal.
Naturally, this decision is intertwined with all the others.
If they’re adding Panarin, Kakko and Kravtsov, do they really need Kreider and, more importantly, can they afford him given the cap space Panarin will eat up?
Also, if they’re hunting for Jacob Trouba or a like top-pair defenseman in a trade, Kreider is going to be the price unless they go with top picks and prospects.
The Rangers just don’t have many other options to trade who could bring home that kind of return.
Like Kreider, Buchnevich could as easily be playing elsewhere on opening night. Buchnevich is no longer a prospect. He’s 24. Certainly he took a big leap in the second half of last season to finish with 21 goals in 64 games played. If that’s the player he’s going to be, the Rangers would love to keep him.
But how much do they want to – or can they – rely on a player who has had to be reminded and poked and prodded to raise his compete level? If they believe he’s past that stage now, Buchnevich can fill in that previously mentioned top-six. If they’re not sure he is, then now’s as good a time to trade him as any, while he has value and before they have to tender his next contract (he’s a restricted free agent July 1). It will cost north of $2.5 million per to keep him a Ranger, probably $3 million.
And Buchnevich and his great friend Kreider are intertwined here too because if the Rangers do line up Panarin, Kakko, Kravtsov, Zibanejad and Chytil in their top-six, either Kreider or Buchnevich, but not both, should fill it out.
The Devils could sway these plans if they take Kakko at No. 1 in Vancouver, leaving the Rangers with Hughes. If the Rangers end up with Hughes, they don’t need to go crazy for Point. With Hughes and Zibanejad as their top two centers, the Rangers would need Kreider and/or Buchnevich on their top two lines, the top wingers being Panarin (if they get him), Kravtsov, Kreider/Buchnevich, Chytil.
And by the way, there was talk last year of Kreider eventually becoming the Rangers’ next captain. I don’t see that happening. I think it’s Zibanejad. Or even alternate captain and perennial “Players’ Player” winner Jesper Fast. Or perhaps the next captain isn’t in the uniform yet.
Those are the tips of the iceberg. Certainly the Rangers can afford to – and in some cases will need to – shed other forwards. Jimmy Vesey, Vlad Namestnikov, Ryan Strome, Boo Nieves. Their return won’t be as significant, obviously, but with the likes of youngsters Brett Howden, Lias Andersson and Brendan Lemieux, plus Fast, all here and affordable, the Rangers have room to maneuver their forwards.
The Rangers were pretty happy with their bottom six throughout last season, especially down the stretch. The problem was that they had nine or 10 bottom-six players, some of them playing top-six roles.
Chytil, Andersson, Howden and Lemieux will all have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft, as would Zibanejad … and Panarin or Kreider or Buchnevich … depending on who’s still here. Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie can be protected. Those arriving this coming season will be exempt.
If the Rangers can move a D-man, Neal Pionk is a candidate, and to a lesser degree Tony DeAngelo, whose stock sufficiently and significantly rose in the eyes of the organization last season. Both are restricted free agents, as is Fredrik Claesson, who may not even receive a qualifying offer.
Fixing the defense: The Rangers have taken one step toward that in trading for Adam Fox from Carolina. They have Libor Hajek ready to make the jump, Yegor Rykov and Tarmo Reunanen right behind him and eventually K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist, Ryan Lindgren and others. Does that make the defense better right now? Or even good enough? Probably not.
Which brings us to Winnipeg’s RFA Trouba, a 25-year-old right-handed first-pair defenseman. Of course the Rangers would be interested. Trouba made $5.5 million last year and the Rangers (or any acquiring team) would want to negotiate with Trouba before a trade is made, whether that be for the player before July 1 or for the player’s signing rights. He’s going to eat up a lot of cap space, too.
The Rangers like him and I think would like to add him. They aren’t in love with him enough, though, to the point of presenting an unmatchable offer sheet. Plus the market for him (again, 25 and righty) might be too mad for the Rangers’ taste in terms of dollars and pieces they’d need to trade.
Then there’s unrestricted free agent Erik Karlsson. The Rangers would be nuts to just say “no way” but it’s pretty close to that. They, like many other teams across the league, have major concerns about the injuries that have piled up and vastly affected Karlsson the last few seasons. They worry about his durability, for sure, not to mention the commitment in top dollars and term of signing him. Especially at age 29.
If, however, Karlsson fails to hit the lottery … if teams are scared away from signing him long-term, the Rangers may get involved with an effort to sign him to a short-term deal. How likely is that? Not very. As of now, Karlsson is not anywhere near the top of their shopping list and he probably will never be.
Barring the acquisition of Trouba, which I think is still unlikely, the Rangers will look to add a defenseman with some experience to the mix via trade.
Why patience now?: The Rangers are still rebuilding and they know the finish line is in the distance. They’re going to be able to spend big to fill holes on what should be a team ready to at least contend in a couple of years. The contracts of Henrik Lundqvist, Marc Staal, Kevin Shattenkirk and Brendan Smith all come off the books to the tune of a cumulative $22.5 million in annual cap space after 2020-21.
How about buyouts?: Buyouts, generally speaking with the Rangers, make more sense next year than this, when the dead cap space will last only two seasons instead of four in the cases of those most commonly associated with buyout potential: defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk, Marc Staal and Brendan Smith.
But if the Rangers hit consecutive home runs with free agents/trades (say, Panarin/Trouba), then they may need some cap relief in the form of a buyout of Shattenkirk or Smith or, a little bit less likely, Staal. I suspect next summer will bring buyouts, though.
The Rangers would love to find a taker for Shattenkirk (two years left at $6.65 million per) in the trade market and would surely have to eat some contract to do so. Whether or not there is a team out there who would be willing to take him off the Rangers’ hands is another matter. Hey, you never know, right? Could happen. But with Fox and DeAngelo as young power-play quarterbacks and Shattenkirk’s legs slowing markedly, there’s a contract they’d like to shed. Even more so if they get a Trouba type.
Taking on other team’s cap problems: That ship has sailed with a guy like Tampa Bay’s Ryan Callahan, for example (especially if the Rangers plan on using Tampa Bay’s fiscal hurt against them to sign Point). Last year the Rangers seriously considered taking their ex-captain back (with an asset, of course, coming along in the deal for helping the Lightning’s cap cause).
The Rangers, going in the forward direction this summer, could find better uses for their cap space. That’s not likely happening this time around.
What to do in goal?: This is another whole can of worms that will take up an entire other column … that is, if and when we ever figure out the answer. For now, Lundqvist, 37, is probably going to hold the mantle of No. 1 goalie at the start, but he’s going to have to earn the right to keep it. Alexandar Georgiev is going to be 1A, no doubt, and the boy wonder, Igor Shesterkin, who’s been Lundqvist’s heir-apparent long before anybody ever heard of Georgiev, has signed and arrived in North America. He’ll almost certainly start in Hartford to get the hang of the smaller rinks, not to mention the new culture, the new continent and the new language. But if he lights it up down there, Davidson and Gorton are going to have their toughest decision to make.
And what if Lundqvist’s game slips again? Yikes.
Trade him to a contender? Yeah, right. What contender doesn’t have a No. 1 goalie? What contender has cap space (even if the Rangers eat some of it)? What contender was paying attention to the second half of last year and wants to take that gamble on a 37-year-old with two years left on his contract? And if there was such a contender, what would it be willing to give the Rangers in exchange for said goalie? And then there’s that pesky no-trade clause, held by a guy who is adamant that he wants to finish his career here in this uniform. So the odds of moving Lundqvist are not as slim as none, but pretty close.
Good luck with that decision.
