yep. And as I say, $5M doesn't buy you a superstar. hell it doesn't even buy you a first line player anymore. It's second line money.
- prock

I think there may some overreaction there. $5.5 may be on the high-end for Eberle - especially based on last year's production - but he did come down from $6m, and he's only 29.

As you said, players basically peak at 29, but while there's a drop-off, the first half of 30 is pretty flat in that they generally produce (on average) at about 80% of their peak performance years between 30 - 34.

So is he worth $5.5m for 40 points? Is he worth $4.8m for 40 points (because that's the projected value of his contract as compared to the cap when he's 34)?

I think it's high, personally, but I think EVERY contract handed out today is high - unless they player signs in Tampa and then it's $6m too low.

Sarcasm Roger... Do I need to post a sign.
- bixll

I read it a few times...and was confused also

Since Duchene came into the league, he's 89th in points per game, right behind Tim Connolly and Alex Frolov.
He just had a career year you say? Okay, but he still tied for 35th in ppg.

Can't wait for someone to sign him for 7x10.5
- BestRapperAlive

Tavres deal is looking damn good.

How is the dog doing?
- bixll

She's doing very well, thanks Bix! Apart from having a slightly wonky run now, she's back at close to 100%.

If I put my garbage out on the curb, am I having a yard sale?
- Zezel

If you put up sign that reads "Everything Must Go", then... yes?

So you are saying Nylander is as good as Mackinnon?
- Aetherial

Matthews did

There might be 100 people who are allowed on the court.

You can't possibly be able to memorize all the faces and then in the chaos of the celebration be able to with 100% accuracy make an instant assessment and allow access.

You know what you can do? Look at a security pass.

Monica Seles says hello.
- Atomic Wedgie

The majority of those have jerseys. It’s really not hard to figure out who manages the team.

Very simple. Prepare for your job. If the raptors were going to win(which they did) you have to be prepared for the situation.

I have a friend who works courstide security for the Raptors...and yes he has to know who is allowed on the court and who isn’t. It’s his (frank)ing job to do so.

I guess Oracle arena has different standards...or the cop is just unprepared. Either or it’s not a good situation to have. The security team goes through hours of prep before each event for a reason. They don’t just show up to the arena for a 3 hour shift.

She's doing very well, thanks Bix! Apart from having a slightly wonky run now, she's back at close to 100%.
- lumlums

Good to hear.

I read it a few times...and was confused also
- senstroll

Really looking forward to seeing what the team looks like going into the Fall. I expect there to be at least 6 new faces on the team. Should be an interesting Summer.

I think there may some overreaction there. $5.5 may be on the high-end for Eberle - especially based on last year's production - but he did come down from $6m, and he's only 29.

As you said, players basically peak at 29, but while there's a drop-off, the first half of 30 is pretty flat in that they generally produce (on average) at about 80% of their peak performance years between 30 - 34.

So is he worth $5.5m for 40 points? Is he worth $4.8m for 40 points (because that's the projected value of his contract as compared to the cap when he's 34)?

I think it's high, personally, but I think EVERY contract handed out today is high - unless they player signs in Tampa and then it's $6m too low.
- Monkeypunk

I'm not sure I follow. I'm overreacting? How so?

I do'nt think you can assume he's a 40 point player. You're basing that on his career worst season.

Really looking forward to seeing what the team looks like going into the Fall. I expect there to be at least 6 new faces on the team. Should be an interesting Summer.
- bixll

6?

Who do you see leaving?

Sparks
Marleau
Zaitsev
Gardiner
Hainsey
Brown

The majority of those have jerseys. It’s really not hard to figure out who manages the team.

Very simple. Prepare for your job. If the raptors were going to win(which they did) you have to be prepared for the situation.

I have a friend who works courstide security for the Raptors...and yes he has to know who is allowed on the court and who isn’t. It’s his (frank)ing job to do so.

I guess Oracle arena has different standards...or the cop is just unprepared. Either or it’s not a good situation to have. The security team goes through hours of prep before each event for a reason. They don’t just show up to the arena for a 3 hour shift.
- Santo_44

I don't care the reason, hitting a cop is a bad idea. Especially in the US. they don't really hesitate when they wanna pop a cap in yo butt.

Statistically, 29 is the end of a players prime, regardless of the type of player they are.

True, some bangers will completely break down, but ALL players slow down when they hit their 30s.
- prock

There are many defensemen that played very good hockey well into their 30s. Chara wasn't even that great until he was 29.

I'm not sure I follow. I'm overreacting? How so?

I do'nt think you can assume he's a 40 point player. You're basing that on his career worst season.
- prock

No, not you. Roger. I think he's overreacting at how bad this contract is.

My estimation of Eberle as a 50 point player was based on his rough production from 25 - 27 and ignoring this year as an outlier. But if we took his higher end production of 60 points, it's still a valid question. If most players produce at 80% of their prime years from 31-34, is Eberle at 48 pts / year (roughly obviously) worth $5.5 million? Probably yes by today's standards. So it's not a bad contract.

My personal take on it is that as long as there are no cap concerns, no one will care. If the Islanders need cap space, then Eberle's contract will be viewed as a problem and if he's producing at a 0.5ppg rate or less, then that contract will be hard to move. And that's the bad side.

I started out with a more definitive opinion on the subject and realized that both sides are valid as I looked at it.

Clearly I'm just stalling while I wait for you to give away where the iocaine powder has been hidden.

so Lebrun is saying the Leafs are quietly shopping Sparks.

will there be any takers and what will the return be? 7th rnd pick in 2020?

Really looking forward to seeing what the team looks like going into the Fall. I expect there to be at least 6 new faces on the team. Should be an interesting Summer.
- bixll

and a couple behind the bench.

There are many defensemen that played very good hockey well into their 30s. Chara wasn't even that great until he was 29.
- aminnes

There are. Alfredsson had his best year at 33. He was very effective at 39. Thornton was great at 36.

But there are far more cases of players slowing down and there's a very clear and obvious bell curve that shows a decline starting at 29.

You can always cite outliers to the data as reasons to not believe the data, but when the data as a whole shows a clear and obvious trend, it's just cherry picking.

Chara is a freak of nature. After he retires from hockey I suspect he'll stop shaving his body and return to his natural habitat in the wilderness stalking lost hikers.

There are. Alfredsson had his best year at 33. He was very effective at 39. Thornton was great at 36.

But there are far more cases of players slowing down and there's a very clear and obvious bell curve that shows a decline starting at 29.

You can always cite outliers to the data as reasons to not believe the data, but when the data as a whole shows a clear and obvious trend, it's just cherry picking.

Chara is a freak of nature. After he retires from hockey I suspect he'll stop shaving his body and return to his natural habitat in the wilderness stalking lost hikers.
- Monkeypunk

Forwards not so much, but as I said, many defensemen played very good hockey well into their 30's. I brought up Chara because he wasn't even very good until his late 20s.

6?

Who do you see leaving?

Sparks
Marleau
Zaitsev
Gardiner
Hainsey
Brown
- PatC80

The first 5 should be the easy choice.

Not sure about Brown, but Kadri, Melander, Kap, all up in the air.

and a couple behind the bench.
- zazzle

1 for sure.

Eberles agent may have been able to talk up his 9 points in 8 games during the playoffs.

Either way 5.5 seems okay for now. Maybe 500k to a million over priced.

There are many defensemen that played very good hockey well into their 30s. Chara wasn't even that great until he was 29.
- aminnes

okay, I didn't mean all players. I meant all types of players. yes, there are exceptions. It happens.

The vast majority of players, of all types, start to slow at around 30.

so Lebrun is saying the Leafs are quietly shopping Sparks.

will there be any takers and what will the return be? 7th rnd pick in 2020?
- zazzle

Did it say that, or did they say sent Sparks shopping.

The first 5 should be the easy choice.

Not sure about Brown, but Kadri, Melander, Kap, all up in the air.
- bixll

There are way too many Maple Leafs rumours this year.. I only recall one rumour being leaked during the Lamoriello years..

Did it say that, or did they say sent Sparks shopping.
- bixll

They are quietly sending him on a shopping spree.. They were unhappy with his wardrobe choices.