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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: McKenzie: Flyers Sign Hayes to 7-Year Contract
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bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 19 @ 8:46 AM ET
No. We had a GM that knew how to team build properly in the salary cap era.

We’ve tried this method before. Flyers fans in particular should be very familiar with how all of this is going to play out.

I guess what’s shocking to me right now is the number of fans that have taken the bait, hook line and sinker.

- StepfordSam


Except last time we traded all the prospects and first round picks we had...last time I checked all our prospects are still here and still prospects
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 19 @ 8:47 AM ET
The RFA's are going to be between 20-23 million to resign.

Provy at least 6 (prob more)
Konecny at least 5
Sanheim at least 3.5
Laughton at least 3
Hartman at least 2.5

That comes to 20 right there, and that is on the low ball end. Maybe I am over estimating what Laughton will get. But I also thing Sanheim could get 4.

Plus they need to sign a backup goalie which will be another 2-3.

- MBFlyerfan


Fletch is quickly painting himself into a corner already.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 19 @ 8:47 AM ET
The combination of Hayes, Niskanen, Braun, Gudas retention, and MacDonald buyout ($18.87m) now nearly equals the Marchand / Bergeron / Pastrnak AAV ($19.67m) almost exactly.

How to Drain Your Cap Space starring Chucky "The Pantload" Fletcher.

- PLindbergh31


What about the 4 million we saved with the Mac buyout? Where is that in your calculation
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 19 @ 8:47 AM ET
Gudas and Braun are gone after this season so it is moot. Braun can be dealt this season as well if he isnt needed.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx


7+ million dollar cap hit for a guy that averages 45 points a season. Really? You know what, let someone else give him that contract.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 19 @ 8:47 AM ET
Your numbers are too high. We are talking guys coming off entry level deals that didnt blow people out of the water. We arent talking about a guy like Marner who got 90+ points

Konecny will get 3-4 mill
Laughton will get no more than Raffl and the same goes with Hartman
Provorov may get 5 mill
Sanheim will get 3 at most

- xShoot4WarAmpsx



If you are correct I would be ecstatic.


PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 19 @ 8:49 AM ET
Fletch is quickly painting himself into a corner already.
- Tomahawk


Is there enough cap space to sign a player who is actually a difference maker in Panarin?
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 19 @ 8:49 AM ET
7+ million dollar cap hit for a guy that averages 45 points a season. Really? You know what, let someone else give him that contract.
- PLindbergh31


Except for the little fact that he doesn't average 45 pts a season
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 19 @ 8:50 AM ET
Except for the little fact that he doesn't average 45 pts a season
- bulet13


He doesn't? How many points a season does he average for his career?
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 19 @ 8:50 AM ET
Is there enough cap space to sign a player who is actually a difference maker in Panarin?
- PLindbergh31


If we trade Jake or JvR

Also you're assuming Panarin is dying to come here. There's 30 other teams that want him too
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jun 19 @ 8:51 AM ET
They are still in pretty good cap shape. Right now, with 8 forwards (G, Jake, JVR, Hayes, Coots, Raffl, Lindblom, Patrick), 7 D (Ghost, Hagg, Myers, Niskanen, Braum, Morin, Schlemko), the dead cap money and Hart, they are at roughly 57.9 million. Assuming they were to trade Hagg for a pick or 2 and then a pick plus Schlemko (if FL wants us taking a backup at 3.4 million, taking Schlemko is the price you make them pay) for Reimer, they'd be at roughly 57.2 million with 8F, 5D and 2G.


I'm guessing one of Frost/Farabee, plus NAK start the season on the roster, so that would give them 10F, 5D, 2G at about 59 or so million. Figure an 83 million ceiling and wanting to leave a minimum of 2 million in space to start the season, that leaves 22 million to sign 5 players: Laughton, TK, Hartman, Provy and Sanheim. I'm guessing that they see Hartman as a stopgap player and that they sign him to only a 1 year deal at 2.5 million or so. Laughton perhaps gets a 2 year deal for 5.5 million, 2.75 aav.

They'd still have about 16.75 million to sign the other 3 RFAs. Assuming at least one, if not more, gets a bridge deal, they will easily have the room to sign them and would be going into the season with 13F, 7D, 2G and probably around 3-3.5 million in available cap space.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jun 19 @ 8:52 AM ET
Your numbers are too high. We are talking guys coming off entry level deals that didnt blow people out of the water. We arent talking about a guy like Marner who got 90+ points

Konecny will get 3-4 mill
Laughton will get no more than Raffl and the same goes with Hartman
Provorov may get 5 mill
Sanheim will get 3 at most

- xShoot4WarAmpsx



No his numbers are close. Yours are off. It’s 2019 not 2009
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 19 @ 8:52 AM ET
He doesn't? How many points a season does he average for his career?
- PLindbergh31


Over his entire career he averages 49 pts per 82 games

Over the past two seasons he averaged 63 per 82

So there you go
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jun 19 @ 8:53 AM ET
If we trade Jake or JvR

Also you're assuming Panarin is dying to come here. There's 30 other teams that want him too

- bulet13


Exactly. If rumors are true and Panarin is heading to FL, you have no shot at him. Florida has room and will likely be giving him 7 years at 11 million per, plus a full NTC/NMC. Are you ready to offer him those protections plus the 14 million per it will take to lure him away from his preferred destination and it's much better tax situation?

Fans tend to forget that UFAs, especially the top ones, hold all the cards when it comes to choosing where they want to go.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 19 @ 8:54 AM ET
Over his entire career he averages 49 pts per 82 games

Over the past two seasons he averaged 63 per 82

So there you go

- bulet13


I'm not doing per 82 games. How many points a season does he average over his 5 year career?
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 19 @ 8:57 AM ET
I'm not doing per 82 games. How many points a season does he average over his 5 year career?
- PLindbergh31


And if a player gets hurt 1 game into a season and has 0 pts are you going to count that as a season? Per 82 is what matters. Or points per per 60

By your logic Coots only averages 42 pts a season iver his career but we know he is better than that. You're trying hard to fit stats into your narrative
youarewrong
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 07.07.2010

Jun 19 @ 8:59 AM ET
The RFA's are going to be between 20-23 million to resign.

Provy at least 6 (prob more)
Konecny at least 5
Sanheim at least 3.5
Laughton at least 3
Hartman at least 2.5

That comes to 20 right there, and that is on the low ball end. Maybe I am over estimating what Laughton will get. But I also thing Sanheim could get 4.

Plus they need to sign a backup goalie which will be another 2-3.

- MBFlyerfan


If Laughton and Hartman are coming in that high I will be happy to see Voroboyov and Aube-Kubel on the 4th. Or even Rubtsov.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 19 @ 9:00 AM ET
And if a player gets hurt 1 game into a season and has 0 pts are you going to count that as a season? Per 82 is what matters. Or points per per 60
- bulet13


How does that apply here when Hayes has averaged 76 games per season?
Spin it any way you want. Hayes isn't a difference maker. He went to a stacked Winnipeg team at the TDL and they got bounced in the first round.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 19 @ 9:01 AM ET
Is there enough cap space to sign a player who is actually a difference maker in Panarin?
- PLindbergh31


No.

We're basically back to the days of being cap-strapped, and all that entails, once the RFA's take their pound of flesh.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:02 AM ET
Get bigger! Get players that kill penalties! Get a 2C!

Fletch goes and does it and everyone goes apepoop.

- hereticpride


Not me, brother -- didn't love the Braun deal because SJ is capped out so I feel a 2nd is too much, but I have zero problems with Niskanen for two seasons

Hayes was always getting seven years. He's 27 years old. He was always getting seven years, from here or elsewhere. So I was fine with that

Once he didn't sign quickly, I felt like it was entirely possible he was gonna get 7, blow right through the sixes, because they had a need, there's no one else in FA unless you're gonna give Duchene at least 8.5 and probably 9

There's always gonna be stuff they can do to move money and guys. I said it yesterday, but if they really don't like their cap, they could probably move JVR with a phone call, no money retained
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:02 AM ET
How does that apply here when Hayes has averaged 76 games per season?
Spin it any way you want. Hayes isn't a difference maker. He went to a stacked Winnipeg team at the TDL and they got bounced in the first round.

- PLindbergh31


He averages more points per season than Coots has over his career. Guess he is better than our 1c!!
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 19 @ 9:03 AM ET
No.

We're basically back to the days of being cap-strapped, and all that entails, once the RFA's take their pound of flesh.

- Tomahawk


And as currently constituted still a playoff bubble/first round cannon fodder team.
Unbelievable.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jun 19 @ 9:04 AM ET
I'm not doing per 82 games. How many points a season does he average over his 5 year career?
- PLindbergh31


This does seem to be a player that’s getting better each year. He’s going to be able to do a lot for us and Patrick is going to see favorable matchups.

Yeah the money/term is not ideal but it never ever is when we’re talking big ufa fish. I am glad I’m not sitting through another year crossing my fingers that the kids are going to put it all together. These players blocking is BS. Keep the kids in Lehigh and the mandate should be to blow it out of the water down there before they get a sniff here
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 19 @ 9:05 AM ET
There's always gonna be stuff they can do to move money and guys. I said it yesterday, but if they really don't like their cap, they could probably move JVR with a phone call, no money retained
- AllInForFlyers


You really think so? I'm not so sure.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jun 19 @ 9:07 AM ET
No.

We're basically back to the days of being cap-strapped, and all that entails, once the RFA's take their pound of flesh.

- Tomahawk


We added Hayes! Braun is 1 year. Niskanen is 2. Listen my dog could make these deals but my dog is a good boy
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 19 @ 9:08 AM ET
And as currently constituted still a playoff bubble/first round cannon fodder team.
Unbelievable.

- PLindbergh31


Yeah, basically. Seems like a lot of effort to achieve relatively little.
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