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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: McKenzie: Flyers Sign Hayes to 7-Year Contract
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PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 19 @ 9:48 AM ET
To recap, the Flyers gave up a year of Gudas, a high 2nd, and a high 3rd for the privilege of burning $9.55m on Niskanen and Braun, and $2.77m on the Gudas retained salary and MACDonald buyout. Unbelievable use of over $12m in cap space.

Let's go..... Rationalize it!
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:48 AM ET
So I'm guessing this thread has just been people lining up to say what a great signing this was by Fletcher. After all, no matter what Chuck does, everyone is gonna praise his every move as if it’s the right one.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:49 AM ET
To recap, the Flyers gave up a year of Gudas, a high 2nd, and a high 3rd for the privilege of burning $9.55m on Niskanen and Braun, and $2.77m on the Gudas retained salary and MACDonald buyout. Unbelievable use of over $12m in cap space.

Let's go..... Rationalize it!

- PLindbergh31


How high is the 3rd going to be in 2020?

I never thought I'd see you mad at MacDonald getting bought out.
GeorgeBailey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CT
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 19 @ 9:49 AM ET
This is a great deal.......for Hayes' agent. To the knowledgeable fan base, the optics of the deal are bad for multiple reasons. Let's compare the deal to a 6 year, $6.5m contract.
1) While the likelihood that we would be paying Hayes to play for someone else by year 5 in a 6 x 6.5 deal, say 60%, I think a 7 x 7.1 deal makes that almost a certainty;
2) By seemingly going an extra $600k per year over what seemed to be a fair UFA contract price for Hayes, I think the team weakens its negotiating power with its crop of RFAs. If we throw an extra $600k AAV at everyone, that could be $3m+ committed that may preclude a move for something the team needs; and
3) Assuming they get 10%, for an extra $61k per year, his agent painted a target on Hayes' back with a contract that is a bit harder to dispose of via trade or buyout. That is a lot of added pressure to put on your client. Let's face it, when Hayes is 50, that extra comp will be material only if his agent squanders or steals it.

That said, if Hayes produces at 25g/65p for the first four years, we all could be looking back at this as a great signing.

Optics are the issue with the last two deals. Considering the cap issues for the Caps and Sharks, should we have taken back less cap hit on Gudas (or gotten a late round pick back) on the Niskanen deal and did we really need to include a 2020 3rd rounder for Braun? I suppose we did, but I think the fan base would look at both deals more favorably if we hadn't.

I don't think they're done, yet. Let's see what the next two weeks bring and I suppose we'll know if they were good decisions this time next year.
Sublime55
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.24.2012

Jun 19 @ 9:49 AM ET
they should have kept Sheen as 2c.
Wouldn't have cost a thing and they would be further ahead than with Hayes.

- tocchettough


Schenn is making around $5.125M and probably due for bump in his pay above 6M when he becomes a FA next offseason.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:51 AM ET
I was ok with the Niskanen deal, not thrilled.

The Braun deal was upsetting, you don't give up a 2nd and a 3rd for a defensive d-man with 1 year left on his deal.

Overpaying for Hayes is fine. The roster needed an upgrade, 2C probably being the most glaring hole and the ripple effect makes us more dangerous down the roster.

It's not the current cap situation I'm worried about. The way the roster is being framed these are going to be the guys to steer the ship for 2 years and some mobility will be at hand afterwards (Gudas and AMac $ gone, Nisky and Braun potentially gone) and Fletcher will probably look at offing high cap hits if things don't go according to plan. The question is more do you think this roster can win as opposed to what does this mean for the current cap. These actions are a commitment to the current roster as constructed.

What bothers me is the 2nd and 3rd round picks gone. To sustain winning you need an infusion of competent players on ELC's. These picks should be held in more high esteem.

- Lip_Out


Agreed. Shoot your shot next season, see how it feels. You like it, run it back. You don’t, Seattle is coming and you make some magic to make one of JVR or Voracek disappear
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:52 AM ET
Whether there is a NMC or not does not determine whether signing Hayes at this term and length is a bad decision or not. It was a bad decision regardless.

Also, the more I think about it the NMC doesn’t matter. No expansion team is going to touch that contract.

- StepfordSam


Keep thinking....

If Seattle isn't interested in 5 more years of Hayes and the Flyers have to protect him, that means a more valuable player will have to be exposed.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 19 @ 9:52 AM ET
How high is the 3rd going to be in 2020?

I never thought I'd see you mad at MacDonald getting bought out.

- Feanor


I'm not really. I'd just bury him in the minors, but whatever. He was a sunk cost.
It sucks carrying any dead money but that is what it is. Was an awful contract from day one and everyone knew it.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:53 AM ET
Your numbers are too high. We are talking guys coming off entry level deals that didnt blow people out of the water. We arent talking about a guy like Marner who got 90+ points

Konecny will get 3-4 mill
Laughton will get no more than Raffl and the same goes with Hartman
Provorov may get 5 mill
Sanheim will get 3 at most

- xShoot4WarAmpsx


You're way too low on all of them.
Tfaehner
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jun 19 @ 9:53 AM ET
I was ok with the Niskanen deal, not thrilled.

The Braun deal was upsetting, you don't give up a 2nd and a 3rd for a defensive d-man with 1 year left on his deal.

Overpaying for Hayes is fine. The roster needed an upgrade, 2C probably being the most glaring hole and the ripple effect makes us more dangerous down the roster.

It's not the current cap situation I'm worried about. The way the roster is being framed these are going to be the guys to steer the ship for 2 years and some mobility will be at hand afterwards (Gudas and AMac $ gone, Nisky and Braun potentially gone) and Fletcher will probably look at offing high cap hits if things don't go according to plan. The question is more do you think this roster can win as opposed to what does this mean for the current cap. These actions are a commitment to the current roster as constructed.

What bothers me is the 2nd and 3rd round picks gone. To sustain winning you need an infusion of competent players on ELC's. These picks should be held in more high esteem.

- Lip_Out



This. All of this. And we still may trade 11 which would be horrifying at this point. After next year only Myers and hart of current nhl players will be on ELC. Imagine if Patrick and lindblom break out this year like we hope to and now you need to pay them 10+. Where is the money coming from?

Farabee frost yes in theory should be here next year. But progression isn't linear. And also what roster spots are even open for them by than ?
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:55 AM ET
Sure he's an upgrade over what they had. No one is debating that. But at what cost? If I'm overpaying players it's true difference makers. Hell I'd rather give Panarin 11+ than Hayes 7+
- PLindbergh31


So would I, but Panarin wasn't signing here. Philly has not been mentioned once as a possible destination for him.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 19 @ 9:56 AM ET
I think he's gonna end up like Vinny, legs go out at 32-33, everything goes along with it.
- Tomahawk


Vinny suffered a back injury. A bad enough back injury can ruin your career aged 20, like it has for Vilardi.
daryl stanley
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 02.12.2019

Jun 19 @ 9:58 AM ET
No. We had a GM that knew how to team build properly in the salary cap era.

We’ve tried this method before. Flyers fans in particular should be very familiar with how all of this is going to play out.

I guess what’s shocking to me right now is the number of fans that have taken the bait, hook line and sinker.

- StepfordSam

What GM was that? The one who neglected the team he was the GM of?
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jun 19 @ 10:00 AM ET
I was ok with the Niskanen deal, not thrilled.

The Braun deal was upsetting, you don't give up a 2nd and a 3rd for a defensive d-man with 1 year left on his deal.

Overpaying for Hayes is fine. The roster needed an upgrade, 2C probably being the most glaring hole and the ripple effect makes us more dangerous down the roster.

It's not the current cap situation I'm worried about. The way the roster is being framed these are going to be the guys to steer the ship for 2 years and some mobility will be at hand afterwards (Gudas and AMac $ gone, Nisky and Braun potentially gone) and Fletcher will probably look at offing high cap hits if things don't go according to plan. The question is more do you think this roster can win as opposed to what does this mean for the current cap. These actions are a commitment to the current roster as constructed.

What bothers me is the 2nd and 3rd round picks gone. To sustain winning you need an infusion of competent players on ELC's. These picks should be held in more high esteem.

- Lip_Out


4 1st rounders in the list!!!! A bunch of 2nds and 3rds. Only if they had 1 or 2 more picks...

Frost
Farabee
Rubtsov
Vorobyev
Ratcliffe
Aube-Kubel
Twarynski
Strome
Kase
Allison
Cates
Laczynski
O'Brien
Myers
Friedman
Zamula
Ginning
Hogberg
Wylie
St. Ivany
Sandstrom
Ustimenko
Ersson

I am really going to miss a 2nd and 3rd rounder....
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jun 19 @ 10:02 AM ET
I've been saying Frost would be a wing in the NHL all along. From what I have seen of his game, his speed would be better suited for wing in the NHL. Just my opinion.
- MBFlyerfan



agree with this, add in that the Flyers need that speed and skill on the wing, they are still missing that
RustyPipes
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Joined: 03.09.2018

Jun 19 @ 10:02 AM ET
4 1st rounders in the list!!!! A bunch of 2nds and 3rds. Only if they had 1 or 2 more picks...

Frost
Farabee
Rubtsov
Vorobyev
Ratcliffe
Aube-Kubel
Twarynski
Strome
Kase
Allison
Cates
Laczynski
O'Brien
Myers
Friedman
Zamula
Ginning
Hogberg
Wylie
St. Ivany
Sandstrom
Ustimenko
Ersson

I am really going to miss a 2nd and 3rd rounder....

- Glak18

Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jun 19 @ 10:02 AM ET
Im going to need to hear some alternatives. What would you have like to have seen done? Who do you want to play 2C? Are you in the SSB and MJL camp where your willing to let Patrick take that role again? Sign Brian Boyle? Not only count on Patrick holding down 2C but laughton holding down 3C?

I like what fletcher did far better than the other options
xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Jun 19 @ 10:02 AM ET
THIS is what 45 points per year gets you???? Over $7M per season, for SEVEN years??

Good god this contract is making my eyes bleed

This is going to be the biggest anchor in league history, three years from now

- AxlRose91


Actually thats what 54 points gets you. He was with 2 teams last year. His totals have two separate entries
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 19 @ 10:02 AM ET
4 1st rounders in the list!!!! A bunch of 2nds and 3rds. Only if they had 1 or 2 more picks...

Frost
Farabee
Rubtsov
Vorobyev
Ratcliffe
Aube-Kubel
Twarynski
Strome
Kase
Allison
Cates
Laczynski
O'Brien
Myers
Friedman
Zamula
Ginning
Hogberg
Wylie
St. Ivany
Sandstrom
Ustimenko
Ersson

I am really going to miss a 2nd and 3rd rounder....

- Glak18


100% serious, I am excited to see Noah Cates.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 19 @ 10:04 AM ET
Im going to need to hear some alternatives. What would you have like to have seen done? Who do you want to play 2C? Are you in the SSB and MJL camp where your willing to let Patrick take that role again? Sign Brian Boyle? Not only count on Patrick holding down 2C but laughton holding down 3C?

I like what fletcher did far better than the other options

- Just5


That’s where I am — you cannot keep asking Patrick to do something he simply isn’t ready to do. It’s not healthy for him or the team
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 19 @ 10:05 AM ET
You're way too low on all of them.
- Feanor


They'd be smart to lock Sanheim up into a Morgan Rielly kinda deal. ~$5M

Provorov is probably looking for the Doughty 2nd-contract. ~$7M

Konecny justified in asking for $5M based on comparables.

Chuck doesn't seem to be the shrewdest negotiator, so I can't say that these players all won't end up getting what they're asking for.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jun 19 @ 10:05 AM ET
100% serious, I am excited to see Noah Cates.
- jmatchett383


I'm with you along with Laczynski...if the Flyers can sign them.
daryl stanley
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 02.12.2019

Jun 19 @ 10:06 AM ET
The RFA's are going to be between 20-23 million to resign.

Provy at least 6 (prob more)
Konecny at least 5
Sanheim at least 3.5
Laughton at least 3
Hartman at least 2.5

That comes to 20 right there, and that is on the low ball end. Maybe I am over estimating what Laughton will get. But I also thing Sanheim could get 4.

Plus they need to sign a backup goalie which will be another 2-3.

- MBFlyerfan

IMO you cant pay laughton and Hartman that much. 1.3 for hartman and 2.2 for laughton. If not I look to move them and sign a stop gap vet on a 1 year deal after all the top free agents are gone.

Hopefully someone in Lehigh is ready need to cut cost somewhere.
RustyPipes
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Joined: 03.09.2018

Jun 19 @ 10:07 AM ET
That’s where I am — you cannot keep asking Patrick to do something he simply isn’t ready to do. It’s not healthy for him or the team
- AllInForFlyers

This is absolutely true. We had glaring holes - Chucky is filling them. Hayes between JVR and Jake may score 70 points this year. Who knows, but at least the team will be in a better position to win more games and I believe that is the goal.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 19 @ 10:08 AM ET
IMO you cant pay laughton and Hartman that much. 1.3 for hartman and 2.2 for laughton. If not I look to move them and sign a stop gap vet on a 1 year deal after all the top free agents are gone.

Hopefully someone in Lehigh is ready need to cut cost somewhere.

- daryl stanley


Gonna need to be ruthless sometimes. I like Laughton but you cannot pay him north of 2. Not on the fourth line
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