You can’t overpay anyone in the NHL. It’ll come back to bite you when you need the space.
- Santo_44

Isles have $8.6M cap space

I think they match almost any #....almost.
- Garnie

Doubt they would match any offer that yields 4 firsts. Marner is a very good player, once you sign an offer though, very hard for an organization to look at you the same way as before. I think Aho gets traded at first opportunity.

depends on the communication between Marner's camp and Dubas.

Marner only signs an offersheet with a team he wants to play for (again, I don't think it will be NYI, but we'll see).
the offersheet option is much more interesting for Marner because:
1/ he gets to pick his contract (team he would be traded to still need to agree on a contract with him)
2/ he gets to pick the team ; Toronto or offersheet team X. (in a trade, Leafs would hold all the cards).

I personally think that if Marner signs with NYI, leafs should let him go.
If he signs with a big team (NYR/MTL) then Leafs should match.
Reasoning is that I can understand signing with one of these other original six teams where it is really not only about money, but as well as being part of something big (like in Toronto) - while signing an offersheet with NYI shows his motivations are different (money, being in NYC, maybe being on same team with Martin his friend (?) , etc.).

so I could respect him signing an offersheet with MTL/NYR, not with NYI - so you let him go in the latter case.
- MaximusAurelius

The leverage Toronto gets in a trade is, well you’re not getting the player then because we’re matching an offer sheet, so let’s make a trade. They wouldn’t trade Marner to a team unless he was willing to resign and a contract would be apart of the deal.

Actually 9m with Horton on LTIR not 9.7m
- Nighthawk

9 mil with 24 man roster
9.7 with 23 man roster
10.4 with 22 man roster

Isles have $8.6M cap space
- Canada Cup

They're trying to unload Leddy, and probably can.

Doubt they would match any offer that yields 4 firsts. Marner is a very good player, once you sign an offer though, very hard for an organization to look at you the same way as before. I think Aho gets traded at first opportunity.
- winsix

I don’t think Aho gets traded because they will have already paid out like 21 mil of his contact and now the rest of his deal will be cheap for them, and for a team like Carolina that matters. Never know though

Take the picks for sure. Re-sign Gardiner (unfortunately) and trade for Zucker.
- walshyleafsfan

naw keep the cap space.

Welcome to Toronto next year, Matthew Barzal.

That suspected offer from the NYI would require some cap movements from the Islanders also

and leave them very vulnerable to an offersheet for Barzal next year.

I don’t think this is true...Babs doesn’t like using stars on the PK. The Leafs top 2 centres are stars.(and Matthews isn’t particularly great defensively...but that’s another debate)
- Santo_44

disagree strongly.
his linemates (johnsson/nylander in particular) make him look vulnerable in the defensive end. during his first season in particular, matthews constantly played with the handbrake on to make sure no opposing breakout happened after a turnover by willie.

depends on the communication between Marner's camp and Dubas.

Marner only signs an offersheet with a team he wants to play for (again, I don't think it will be NYI, but we'll see).
the offersheet option is much more interesting for Marner because:
1/ he gets to pick his contract (team he would be traded to still need to agree on a contract with him)
2/ he gets to pick the team ; Toronto or offersheet team X. (in a trade, Leafs would hold all the cards).

I personally think that if Marner signs with NYI, leafs should let him go.
If he signs with a big team (NYR/MTL) then Leafs should match.
Reasoning is that I can understand signing with one of these other original six teams where it is really not only about money, but as well as being part of something big (like in Toronto) - while signing an offersheet with NYI shows his motivations are different (money, being in NYC, maybe being on same team with Martin his friend (?) , etc.).

so I could respect him signing an offersheet with MTL/NYR, not with NYI - so you let him go in the latter case.
- MaximusAurelius

I think this is just one huge bluff.

I have a friend that has been close with the Marner family for a long time...they had a kid who played with Marner growing up.

That family is extremely close. And Paul is obsessed with Mitch’s hockey career.He lives through him..but he doesn’t think that there is a chance Paul let’s him play for another team by choice. But Paul also has an ego and he thinks Mitch is on Mcdavids level and deserves McDavid money.

So from an outsider it just looks like a (frank)ed up situation to me. I’d sign him for 3 years and trade him at the end of it if he wants to do this again.

Idk about that.. That’s a lot of money and so far out of line what he should be paid. It would be interesting.
- ClarksonDavid

Leave a pretty big hole in our lineup i think, 4 picks...meh...who knows what those will even become....we already know what we have with MM. I don't think he's worth 12.5....but I'm tight.

disagree strongly.
his linemates (johnsson/nylander in particular) make him look vulnerable in the defensive end. during his first season in particular, matthews constantly played with the handbrake on to make sure no opposing breakout happened after a turnover by willie.
- MaximusAurelius

Matthews has never had good numbers in his own end regardless of who he plays with. So I choose not to blame his linemates.

He can backcheck but he can get lost out there.

Mitch Marner will be the highest paid player in the NHL.

I don’t think this is true...Babs doesn’t like using stars on the PK. The Leafs top 2 centres are stars.(and Matthews isn’t particularly great defensively...but that’s another debate)
- Santo_44

He does use Marner.

I really don't know. I think both Tavares and Matthews tend to be too passive in Defense, which probably makes them less effective on the Leafs PK.

That being said, I'm not going to lie - I don't really know what our PK system is. People talk about pressure, but mostly I just see guys who passively maintain the middle box and try to block lanes with their sticks. Mostly our PK sucks, so changing it up wouldn't be a bad thing.

All this offersheet talk sounds like a load of horsepoop made up by Dan Ferris or apparent insiders to drum up hits.

The leverage Toronto gets in a trade is, well you’re not getting the player then because we’re matching an offer sheet, so let’s make a trade. They wouldn’t trade Marner to a team unless he was willing to resign and a contract would be apart of the deal.
- ClarksonDavid

well yeah although negotiating a trade saying that you'll match the offersheet while the act of negotiating the trade means you consider not matching the offersheet takes away leverage from Toronto.

And the trade would be on the 4 1st rounders:

so in practice it would mean that:

1/ Toronto would not match
2/ Toronto and the team (NYI in this case) would discuss a trade on the 4 1sts for
other assets (players/other picks). Not sure apart from Barzal what / who would be of Leafs interest.

I think this is just one huge bluff.

I have a friend that has been close with the Marner family for a long time...they had a kid who played with Marner growing up.

That family is extremely close. And Paul is obsessed with Mitch’s hockey career.He lives through him..but he doesn’t think that there is a chance Paul let’s him play for another team by choice. But Paul also has an ego and he thinks Mitch is on Mcdavids level and deserves McDavid money.

So from an outsider it just looks like a (frank)ed up situation to me. I’d sign him for 3 years and trade him at the end of it if he wants to do this again.
- Santo_44

why would Marner - a grown-up person - listen to his dad ?
In particular if he has other ideas

All this offersheet talk sounds like a load of horsepoop made up by Dan Ferris or apparent insiders to drum up hits.
- Archaic

It's for entertainment, better then just looking into the camera combing his hair. Who would want to watch that?

disagree strongly.
his linemates (johnsson/nylander in particular) make him look vulnerable in the defensive end. during his first season in particular, matthews constantly played with the handbrake on to make sure no opposing breakout happened after a turnover by willie.
- MaximusAurelius

Willie had 30 give aways his first season. Matthews had more, Kadri had more, Marner had the most for forwards. But ok

Matthews has never had good numbers in his own end regardless of who he plays with. So I choose not to blame his linemates.

He can backcheck but he can get lost out there.
- Santo_44

Agreed. Matthews can strip a puck off anybody & look good doing it but his advanced defensive numbers show that he is generally poor defensively. Speaking of bad defensively....just read a tweet from Feb 2013 that made me cringe hard. This is for anyone female doging about the Leafs defense core this year.

“D: Phaneuf-Kostka. Liles-Komisarek. Fraser-Franson. Get the sense that Gunnarsson may be game-time call.”

He does use Marner.

I really don't know. I think both Tavares and Matthews tend to be too passive in Defense, which probably makes them less effective on the Leafs PK.

That being said, I'm not going to lie - I don't really know what our PK system is. People talk about pressure, but mostly I just see guys who passively maintain the middle box and try to block lanes with their sticks. Mostly our PK sucks, so changing it up wouldn't be a bad thing.
- Monkeypunk

Just stand in the box trying to swat away rebounds and tie up sticks.

All this offersheet talk sounds like a load of horsepoop made up by Dan Ferris or apparent insiders to drum up hits.
- Archaic

It doesn't make any sense at all. It sounds like someone who's trying to increase their social media presence.

The Islanders have maybe $9m in immediate cap space. They can make more, sure, but then Barzal's contract is done at the end of this year. Where is that $9m coming from?

why would Marner - a grown-up person - listen to his dad ?
In particular if he has other ideas
- MaximusAurelius

He’s 20 years old and has never handled anything like this in his life.

It’s normal for parents to be involved in a players contract coming out of their ELC...but Paul is a little bit out of control.

Agreed. Matthews can strip a puck off anybody & look good doing it but his advanced defensive numbers show that he is generally poor defensively. Speaking of bad defensively....just read a tweet from Feb 2013 that made me cringe hard. This is for anyone female doging about the Leafs defense core this year.

“D: Phaneuf-Kostka. Liles-Komisarek. Fraser-Franson. Get the sense that Gunnarsson may be game-time call.”
- Salami_Tsunami

Franson Fraser had that 1 fun year, same year Grabo Clarke Kulemen had a good year? I can't remember back that far.....

All this offersheet talk sounds like a load of horsepoop made up by Dan Ferris or apparent insiders to drum up hits.
- Archaic

Agree! From Marner's point of view - he knows if he signs any OS, he's through as a Leaf at some point. He'll be burning his jammies and walking the plank.