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Forums :: Blog World :: Tyler Cameron: The Curious Case of Brendan Perlini
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rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 5 @ 4:16 PM ET
If they were UFA's I would agree, but they will be RFA. Just a thought. I've been pushing for shorter contracts for everyone for a while now. I just think it allows for better roster flexibility. It requires that you have a much better scouting staff, but I think it is a better way to run the team.
- Chunk

It's still a discount to $8-9x7 and $6-8x7 which is where they will be with good years.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Aug 5 @ 5:57 PM ET
$1.5M is splitting the difference. From Powers in The Athletic:

Evolving-Hockey released contract projections before the offseason began, and they’ve been pretty dead on. Perlini’s projection was a two-year contract with a $2,056,017 cap hit. Chris Watkins has a model that calculates players’ values based on an assortment of variables, and the model has Perlini worth $4,674,151. That’s obviously not what Perlni will get paid, but it’s what the model says Perlini’s production is actually worth.

The Blackhawks have some leverage because Perlini isn’t arbitration eligible yet. If he had been, he’d probably be looking at something closer to $2 million. Considering he needs another season to be eligible, it’s possible he agrees to a one-year contract and aims for a large deal next summer.

- scottak

I assuming “Evolving-Hockey” is Perlini’s agency? Because no one who didn’t stand to benefit from Perlini earning $4.6 could ever suggest with a straight face that he’s worth anywhere near that much.
Spec41971
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Rolling meadows, IL
Joined: 03.04.2017

Aug 5 @ 6:09 PM ET
What's up, Spec? How have u been?
- I Am The Breadman

Hi.. Been very fine. Thank you..how have you been? Really, really waiting for the season start.
just69sayin
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: chicago
Joined: 11.15.2014

Aug 5 @ 6:10 PM ET
Wait what!?!?!?! The Cat had 40 goals last year. He is going to make 9+
- nickmo2699

I wouldn't pay him 9 million. I would pay a top dman 9 but I wouldn't pay Debrincat 9. How many 9-10 million dollar forwards can you have. I haven't thought it out honestly but seems like it is too much. Maybe 3 forwards making that kind of money is going to be a new thing
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 5 @ 6:30 PM ET
I wouldn't pay him 9 million. I would pay a top dman 9 but I wouldn't pay Debrincat 9. How many 9-10 million dollar forwards can you have. I haven't thought it out honestly but seems like it is too much. Maybe 3 forwards making that kind of money is going to be a new thing
- just69sayin

Toews and Kane are "sunk cost," can't deny Debrinkat what he's worth. It's like saying we aren't going to give tenure to our best young professors because we have too many old ones on tenure. He will go elsewhere and you're stuck with the old guys tailing off.
eagle50
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: ON
Joined: 07.13.2012

Aug 5 @ 6:39 PM ET
Toews and Kane are "sunk cost," can't deny Debrinkat what he's worth. It's like saying we aren't going to give tenure to our best young professors because we have too many old ones on tenure. He will go elsewhere and you're stuck with the old guys tailing off.
- rpeters01

Debrincats numbers are roughly in line with Toews and below Kane's during and prior to their 2010 bridges of 6.3 million so 7 million bridge of 3 years would make sense.
eagle50
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: ON
Joined: 07.13.2012

Aug 5 @ 6:41 PM ET
Not even getting into the playoffs that Toews and Kane had that last year of their entry level deal.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 5 @ 6:55 PM ET
Debrincats numbers are roughly in line with Toews and below Kane's during and prior to their 2010 bridges of 6.3 million so 7 million bridge of 3 years would make sense.
- eagle50

That was 10yrs ago. Whatever the market is now is what it is.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Aug 5 @ 7:00 PM ET
I assuming “Evolving-Hockey” is Perlini’s agency? Because no one who didn’t stand to benefit from Perlini earning $4.6 could ever suggest with a straight face that he’s worth anywhere near that much.
- Ogilthorpe2

Except they’ve been pretty accurate on the deals already signed. And they projected 4.1. If you read closely, it’s another that came up with the $4.6 figure.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 5 @ 7:11 PM ET
That was 10yrs ago. Whatever the market is now is what it is.
- rpeters01


Unless DeBrincat totally falls off next season I’d expect a 7-8 year deal for around $8 million. Strome will likely be 5-6 years for about $6 million. We’d all like these two to sign for less but this will likely be the largest deal of their careers so I doubt they’ll take a discount.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 5 @ 7:14 PM ET
Except they’ve been pretty accurate on the deals already signed. And they projected 4.1. If you read closely, it’s another that came up with the $4.6 figure.
- scottak



Unless I read the article wrong, I thought Perlini’s camp was asking for $1.5 and the Hawks were offering $1.0 (both for one year).
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 5 @ 7:16 PM ET
I assuming “Evolving-Hockey” is Perlini’s agency? Because no one who didn’t stand to benefit from Perlini earning $4.6 could ever suggest with a straight face that he’s worth anywhere near that much.
- Ogilthorpe2



According to puckpedia, Darren Ferris is his agent.


DARREN FERRIS
@DHGHOCKEY
Agency

Quartexx Management
www.quartexxmanagement.com/

“Evolving Hockey’s data is here:

https://docs.google.com/s...54/htmlview#gid=707766415

Methodology @
https://hockey-graphs.com...s-for-the-2019-offseason/
just69sayin
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: chicago
Joined: 11.15.2014

Aug 5 @ 7:58 PM ET
Not even getting into the playoffs that Toews and Kane had that last year of their entry level deal.
- eagle50

Exactly
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Aug 5 @ 8:10 PM ET
Unless I read the article wrong, I thought Perlini’s camp was asking for $1.5 and the Hawks were offering $1.0 (both for one year).
- DarthKane

The ‘reports’ are as you state. Evolving Hockey, which projects what players are worth, and have been doing so accurately this summer, projected him as 2 X $2M.

So, Perlini’s $1.5 request would be splitting the difference between the 2 per that the comps say he’s worth, and the 1.0 the Hawks are reported to be offering.

I’m not saying that’s what he’s worth, just reporting what the ‘experts’ say he’s worth. If I remember correctly, LBR also said his comps were $2m per.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Aug 5 @ 8:10 PM ET
According to puckpedia, Darren Ferris is his agent.


DARREN FERRIS
@DHGHOCKEY
Agency

Quartexx Management
www.quartexxmanagement.com/

“Evolving Hockey’s data is here:

https://docs.google.com/s...54/htmlview#gid=707766415

Methodology @
https://hockey-graphs.com...s-for-the-2019-offseason/

- walleyeb1


Thanks!
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 5 @ 8:25 PM ET
Unless DeBrincat totally falls off next season I’d expect a 7-8 year deal for around $8 million. Strome will likely be 5-6 years for about $6 million. We’d all like these two to sign for less but this will likely be the largest deal of their careers so I doubt they’ll take a discount.
- DarthKane

Yup...
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Aug 5 @ 8:33 PM ET
Hi.. Been very fine. Thank you..how have you been? Really, really waiting for the season start.
- Spec41971


Good to hear. I've been good. Just waiting to student teach at this point. I'm done with these dog days, I'm ready for the season too.
Timtr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Western Springs, IL
Joined: 06.22.2016

Aug 5 @ 9:21 PM ET
How many wingers can you have on the roster that don’t give you a chance to win every night because of a lack of motivation?
Saad
Nylander
Perlini
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 5 @ 9:30 PM ET
The ‘reports’ are as you state. Evolving Hockey, which projects what players are worth, and have been doing so accurately this summer, projected him as 2 X $2M.

So, Perlini’s $1.5 request would be splitting the difference between the 2 per that the comps say he’s worth, and the 1.0 the Hawks are reported to be offering.

I’m not saying that’s what he’s worth, just reporting what the ‘experts’ say he’s worth. If I remember correctly, LBR also said his comps were $2m per.

- scottak


$2 million seems reasonable, but the Hawks took a chance on two other inconsistent guys recently, Panik and Duclair, so I think they’ll want to do things on their terms with Perlini.

I don’t think a one year $1 million (ish) is too bad for Perlini either. He’ll have arbitration rights next season and if he delivers the pay off will be big. I don’t blame Perlini if he holds out for the extra $500,000, that’s a lot of money, but he needs to play the long game here.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 5 @ 9:31 PM ET
How many wingers can you have on the roster that don’t give you a chance to win every night because of a lack of motivation?
Saad
Nylander
Perlini

- Timtr


I wouldn’t include Saad in that group.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Aug 5 @ 9:33 PM ET
How many wingers can you have on the roster that don’t give you a chance to win every night because of a lack of motivation?
Saad
Nylander
Perlini

- Timtr

Saad doesn’t fit that description.
Nylander hasn’t played a game for the Hawks yet.
Perlini IS worthless.

1 for 3
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 5 @ 10:16 PM ET
AEL, Here's a response from yesterday's blog. I haven't been able to do that on capfriendly. Seems as it is designed to build one roster at a time, then you have to publish it and start over.

I was able to copy the team roster info from cap friendly to an excel spreadsheet, but then had to manipulate the spreadsheet to get it into a decent format and add formulas to calculate the total cap hit. If you do it that way, once the spreadsheet is properly formatted, it would be easy to make different iterations of the roster.

- boilermaker100

Thanks for the tip. I'll look into the spreadsheet method. Didn't think to do that even though I swim in spreadsheets everyday at work.
tazer_and_diet
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 10.29.2012

Aug 5 @ 10:45 PM ET
Toews and Kane are "sunk cost," can't deny Debrinkat what he's worth. It's like saying we aren't going to give tenure to our best young professors because we have too many old ones on tenure. He will go elsewhere and you're stuck with the old guys tailing off.
- rpeters01


He can't go elsewhere, he's an RFA. $9 million for ADB is ridiculous. He should get no more than $7 million, and if he wants to sit out to wait for more then he can go a whole season and get nothing.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Aug 5 @ 10:45 PM ET
We don't know how the goaltending will turn out this season - let alone how things will play out next summer. Probably the best case is Lehner plays well enough this season and the Hawks sign him to a long term deal and say goodbye to Crawford. But, that probably means Lehner will get more than the $5M AAV he's getting this season so the combined goaltending cap hit isn't going to be $6M + $1M - probably more like $8M + $1M.
- EbonyRaptor


Right. And i hope that Laakinen prevails over Delia as #2. We shall learn whom is better and or more advanced in development toward NHL career
ge1002
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: United States, TX
Joined: 05.02.2008

Aug 5 @ 10:58 PM ET
He can't go elsewhere, he's an RFA. $9 million for ADB is ridiculous. He should get no more than $7 million, and if he wants to sit out to wait for more then he can go a whole season and get nothing.
- tazer_and_diet


Ridiculous?

18/19 41g 35a
career 69g 59a 128p in 168 games

hes's worth 9..
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