How? My point is the competition that Gusev played against is no where close to what he will play against now. So to just say "well he had 80+ points over there, he'll get that here." is nuts.
- stevens87

He got paid 4.5m and your example against that idea was a player that produced at a 50 point pace...

How? My point is the competition that Gusev played against is no where close to what he will play against now. So to just say "well he had 80+ points over there, he'll get that here." is nuts.
- stevens87

Someone did the conversion on it, and it is basically 1.35 KHL points equals 1 NHL point. He had 82 points in 62 games, doing the conversion equals 61 points in 62 games, close to a point per game.

Dadonov has put up 65 points in 74 games and 70 points in 82 games. his last year in the KHL, he put up 66 in 53 games., that would be 49 in 53 games, do a full 82 season, he should put up 76. He put up 70 points pretty darn close to what was expected.

I'd rather pay someone $4.5 million for a chance of a 70 point player, than $3.5 million for 30-40 points. Especially because the Penguins got rid of an 80+ point player in Kessel.

I'd rather pay someone $4.5 million for a chance of a 70 point player, than $3.5 million for 30-40 points. Especially because the Penguins got rid of an 80+ point player in Kessel.
- abcpens10

30-40 points? I'll be happy if he hits 30+ and really surprised if he hits 35+. He's has one season of 29 points and that was with better linemates than he will find on the 4th line of the Pens (not to mention 4th line minutes).

But I agree with your point, it is a gamble worth taking for the upside, especially when Tanev is so close to what we already have in spades.

Someone did the conversion on it, and it is basically 1.35 KHL points equals 1 NHL point. He had 82 points in 62 games, doing the conversion equals 61 points in 62 games, close to a point per game.

Dadonov has put up 65 points in 74 games and 70 points in 82 games. his last year in the KHL, he put up 66 in 53 games., that would be 49 in 53 games, do a full 82 season, he should put up 76. He put up 70 points pretty darn close to what was expected.
- abcpens10

https://frozenpool.dobber...s.com/frozenpool_nhle.php

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_nhle.php
- Feds91Stammer

Thank you!

Yeesh... so much dislike over Gusev's hypothetical point production.

Let's go back to hating Jack Johnson, hating writing about hating Jack Johnson and how all politics suck.

" His goals are in a good spot, but he has been very slightly lucky based on his ‘vs expected’ bar. This could be problematic if his shooting percentage drops. If he was slightly lucky while shooting 11.0% what does it look like if it drops? Something to keep an eye on."

I think he has this backwards. Wouldn't one be getting lucky if their goals for is higher than expected? This shows me he generates a lot of scoring chances while on the ice, but doesn't capitalize as much as he probably should. If you take into consideration the shooting percentage bar is lower than the expected, meanwhile the shots are higher, it shows he was fine in the goal production stand point and is more likely to see an increase than a decrease.

Meanwhile, Rusts chart shows a higher goals for and shooting percentage, with a lower expected goals and shots, which likely points towards regression.

" His goals are in a good spot, but he has been very slightly lucky based on his ‘vs expected’ bar. This could be problematic if his shooting percentage drops. If he was slightly lucky while shooting 11.0% what does it look like if it drops? Something to keep an eye on."

I think he has this backwards. Wouldn't one be getting lucky if their goals for is higher than expected? This shows me he generates a lot of scoring chances while on the ice, but doesn't capitalize as much as he probably should.
- burgh4life87

When the stats gurus start confusing themselves. Wait they have been confused from the beginning.

" His goals are in a good spot, but he has been very slightly lucky based on his ‘vs expected’ bar. This could be problematic if his shooting percentage drops. If he was slightly lucky while shooting 11.0% what does it look like if it drops? Something to keep an eye on."

I think he has this backwards. Wouldn't one be getting lucky if their goals for is higher than expected? This shows me he generates a lot of scoring chances while on the ice, but doesn't capitalize as much as he probably should.
- burgh4life87

These were my thoughts when I read that part as well.

These were my thoughts when I read that part as well.
- MattStrat

Yah, I made an edit to my original post, but that passage would read true for Rust and not Tanev lol.

What are the odds that by the end of the summer, we will be saying with regard to JJ, "JR, you beautiful genius!"? I say about 20 to 1.

Tanev will probably fit where he fits. It’s hockey so you will have to give him sometime time. I’d like to see a player of his aggression and motivation with both Crosby and Malkin. The idea that Simon can play there pretty much opens the door for anyone playing professionally in North America.

Tanev is absolutely dogged on the puck. He's a workhorse with speed and tenacity. You have him in a 4th line role, but don't be surprised when injuries hit if he slips into the top 6 and stays there! Underrated due to usage with the Jets. Tanev-Lowry-Copp were incredibly good matched up against top lines. 3.5M is overpaid for a 4th liner, but he's a middle-6 forward who is a strong candidate to overachieve if given some scoring talent to play with, along with the favourable matchups that come with. Again though... usage will be the determining factor in his perceived success.

Tanev is absolutely dogged on the puck. He's a workhorse with speed and tenacity. You have him in a 4th line role, but don't be surprised when injuries hit if he slips into the top 6 and stays there! Underrated due to usage with the Jets. Tanev-Lowry-Copp were incredibly good matched up against top lines. 3.5M is overpaid for a 4th liner, but he's a middle-6 forward who is a strong candidate to overachieve if given some scoring talent to play with, along with the favourable matchups that come with. Again though... usage will be the determining factor in his perceived success.
- Burnt_juice

You must be new in these parts. Way too much positivity for this board.

You must be new in these parts. Way too much positivity for this board.
- madmike71

LOL so true.

Waiting anxiously for a JJ or Guds trade and seeing Pettersson getting re-signed.

Tanev is absolutely dogged on the puck. He's a workhorse with speed and tenacity. You have him in a 4th line role, but don't be surprised when injuries hit if he slips into the top 6 and stays there! Underrated due to usage with the Jets. Tanev-Lowry-Copp were incredibly good matched up against top lines. 3.5M is overpaid for a 4th liner, but he's a middle-6 forward who is a strong candidate to overachieve if given some scoring talent to play with, along with the favourable matchups that come with. Again though... usage will be the determining factor in his perceived success.
- Burnt_juice

Ahh yes the soon to be 28 year old middle 6 forward that has never hit 30 points...

" His goals are in a good spot, but he has been very slightly lucky based on his ‘vs expected’ bar. This could be problematic if his shooting percentage drops. If he was slightly lucky while shooting 11.0% what does it look like if it drops? Something to keep an eye on."

I think he has this backwards. Wouldn't one be getting lucky if their goals for is higher than expected? This shows me he generates a lot of scoring chances while on the ice, but doesn't capitalize as much as he probably should. If you take into consideration the shooting percentage bar is lower than the expected, meanwhile the shots are higher, it shows he was fine in the goal production stand point and is more likely to see an increase than a decrease.

Meanwhile, Rusts chart shows a higher goals for and shooting percentage, with a lower expected goals and shots, which likely points towards regression.
- burgh4life87

Are you from WPG? It’s funny because I’ve got friends and family there and that’s exactly what they say about Tanev: he’s always getting solid chances but he’ll muck it straight into the goalies pads 😂

One thing that bothers me about RWs analysis of how Tanev plays is the result. Tanev doesn’t just dump the puck in and then allow the other team to throw it right back out; he’s highly effective at getting in on the forecheck and hitting (really hard at times) the oppositions defenders which leads to him drawing penalties or the other team turning pucks over, both of which can result in quality scoring chances. RW is using Micah’s heat map charts but he’s not reading them? Says right on it that Tanev draws penalties at an exceptionally high rate

Ahh yes the soon to be 28 year old middle 6 forward that has never hit 30 points...
- Feds91Stammer

https://frozenpool.dobber...com/players/brandon-tanev

30 point pace

Tanev is probably a lot like Matt Cooke without the cheapshots and suspensions

Cooke was a solid piece in the top 9 when he was here

Are you from WPG? It’s funny because I’ve got friends and family there and that’s exactly what they say about Tanev: he’s always getting solid chances but he’ll muck it straight into the goalies pads 😂

One thing that bothers me about RWs analysis of how Tanev plays is the result. Tanev doesn’t just dump the puck in and then allow the other team to throw it right back out; he’s highly effective at getting in on the forecheck and hitting (really hard at times) the oppositions defenders which leads to him drawing penalties or the other team turning pucks over, both of which can result in quality scoring chances. RW is using Micah’s heat map charts but he’s not reading them? Says right on it that Tanev draws penalties at an exceptionally high rate
- WSCTeton17

A lot of advanced stats people have a high preference for controlled entries over dump and chase. We do have data though the shows some guys (like say Hornqvist) get the puck back at a high percentage.

Also still a good strategy against slow moving defensemen like JJ and Maatta. That's why I don't like using controlled zone entries as a main stat. Sure Maatta could defend the blue line, but part of that was you could easily dump behind him and get the puck back.

A lot of advanced stats people have a high preference for controlled entries over dump and chase. We do have data though the shows some guys (like say Hornqvist) get the puck back at a high percentage.

Also still a good strategy against slow moving defensemen like JJ and Maatta. That's why I don't like using controlled zone entries as a main stat. Sure Maatta could defend the blue line, but part of that was you could easily dump behind him and get the puck back.
- Tojo.

You think that if the defender is easy to skate around on a dump, than that same defender wouldn't be looked at as an easy person to get around with the puck?
Ya'll overthink why "advanced stats" people prefer certain things over others. Yes, being excellent on the forecheck is a skill (that is highly based on the IQ of your linemates), but literally no one will say that it's better to dump the puck over carrying it into the zone. Dumping the puck (losing possession) should be the absolute last decision a puck carrier should make when trying to gain offensive zone entries, when they have no other options to maintain control. Dump and chase is a great strategy to use in the NHL and North American hockey in general, but why give the puck up if you don't have to? Should really only dump as a last resort for zone entry or at the tail end of a shift.

Ahh yes the soon to be 28 year old middle 6 forward that has never hit 30 points...
- Feds91Stammer

Dupuis would be at least one example of a guy who was pegged as a bottom 6 with one outlier season as he entered his 30s but ended up being a middle six.

Tanev had 29 points last year with basically no PP or top 6 time. It's hardly stretch to think he's capable of mid-30s which is middle six territory.

Comes down to, as the previous posted said, usage. I'm not betting on Tanev getting a lot of top 6 time, but I wouldn't rule out him getting a shot and sticking for a while either. We know Sully is likely to experiment a lot.

I still maintain there is very little talent separation among our wings: lot of 25-35 point guys depending on who they pay with.

You think that if the defender is easy to skate around on a dump, than that same defender wouldn't be looked at as an easy person to get around with the puck?
Ya'll overthink why "advanced stats" people prefer certain things over others. Yes, being excellent on the forecheck is a skill (that is highly based on the IQ of your linemates), but literally no one will say that it's better to dump the puck over carrying it into the zone. Dumping the puck (losing possession) should be the absolute last decision a puck carrier should make when trying to gain offensive zone entries, when they have no other options to maintain control. Dump and chase is a great strategy to use in the NHL and North American hockey in general, but why give the puck up if you don't have to? Should really only dump as a last resort for zone entry or at the tail end of a shift.
- Blackstrom2

What I'm saying is I feel people over-generalise that dumping the puck in is a bad play. I'll agree, skating in with control is better, but sometimes the dump is the safer play when the defense as the blueline covered and you can say dump behind a slow defenseman facing the other direction.

It's textbook how teams killed JJ all year. I believe someone posted he actually had good numbers defending controlled entries, yet he still got buried in his end because teams knew dumping into his corner was a high percentage play to get possession.

What I'm saying is I feel people over-generalise that dumping the puck in is a bad play. I'll agree, skating in with control is better, but sometimes the dump is the safer play when the defense as the blueline covered and you can say dump behind a slow defenseman facing the other direction.

It's textbook how teams killed JJ all year. I believe someone posted he actually had good numbers defending controlled entries, yet he still got buried in his end because teams knew dumping into his corner was a high percentage play to get possession.
- Tojo.

I agree with this and I think the same holds true for zone exits as well - sometimes just clearing the zone instead of trying to skate it out is the better play. However, the more skilled puck handlers are able to skate with the puck or dump (either in or out) depending on the situation. Over time, the stats tend to show who is capable and who is not. The one-trick-pony players can still be somewhat effective but in general they are pretty limited.

I think as the level of competition increases come playoff time, you want more versatile players who can adapt to the better competition.