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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Marner camp, Leafs looking for leverage as time ticks towards training camp
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aminnes
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Mrs. Buzzkill, AB
Joined: 12.17.2008

Aug 20 @ 5:22 PM ET
Bear in mind you have Nylander @ 6.9m x 5 years covering ages 23 - 28.

You trade that for Ryan Nugent - Hopkins @ 6m x 2 years covering ages 26-27. Is he the third line centre?

With this you trade the questionable Jeremy Bracco for the questionable Jesse Puljujarvi, except that Puljujarvi will need a contract in the $1.2m+ range . . .and won't be of any use unless he's in the top 6, which he wouldn't be - so you're actually paying more in cap hit for something you don't need and don't want for less time.

This is not to devalue RNH, he's a good player, but with only 2 years left on his contract, and the fact that he'd be a 3rd line centre making $6m, it's not an optimal deal.

- Monkeypunk


He's played a fair bit of wing with McD as well.
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Aug 20 @ 5:22 PM ET
I'm old and all but I keep seeing this word Derp what does it mean?
- bobbyisno1

Aetherderp, Sanderp, Peter21-Derp...

Derp patrol..

(Watch, he’ll be super angry now)
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Aug 20 @ 5:23 PM ET
Hahahaha

U mad, bro?

I never said anything about who’s better, and certainly didn’t discuss player height. Put down the glue, Gluey McGlueface.

- Arctic_AARDVARK


Ahh perhaps it was JFJ? No matter, you, him, UG are all the same person to me.

Don't get all turgid in your pants because I would deign to respond to you. It won't happen often. I promise.

lonnyBohonos
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 02.02.2017

Aug 20 @ 5:23 PM ET
Me too. Even with Mitch in the lineup this team is probably looking at a wildcard. With him out, yikes. I predict Babs is fired after this season, leaving Dubas with nowhere to hide if they can't get out of the first round in 20-21.
- aminnes


you think with marner in the lineup the leafs are a wildcard team? who do you have finishing top 3 in the Atlantic?
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Aug 20 @ 5:23 PM ET
Ahh perhaps it was JFJ? No matter, you, him, UG are all the same person to me.

Don't get all turgid in your pants because I would deign to respond to you. It won't happen often. I promise.

- Aetherial

Derp*
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Aug 20 @ 5:25 PM ET


*waits to see what it means*

- Garnie


derp
/dərp/

exclamation
1.
used as a substitute for speech regarded as meaningless or stupid, or to comment on a foolish or stupid action.

2.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Aug 20 @ 5:26 PM ET
Edmonton says no.
- Aetherial

didn't say I'd do it.

I'd be ok with it if it did happen.
golfingsince
Location: This message is Marwood approved!
Joined: 11.30.2011

Aug 20 @ 5:26 PM ET
I say here are your 3 options

3 x 8
6 x 10
7 x 10.5

If you don't sign by x date (before training camp) these will be your options next year at this time. Have fun this winter.

- Azuredoom


Right, he won't have any options.
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Aug 20 @ 5:27 PM ET

/dərp/

exclamation
1.
used as a substitute for speech regarded as meaningless or stupid, or to comment on a foolish or stupid action.

2.

- Aetherialderp

How dare you say that about Elon?
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Aug 20 @ 5:31 PM ET

so... MiB is saying that the offersheet "bedlam" wasn't true?

unbelievable
MrBen
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 06.22.2010

Aug 20 @ 5:31 PM ET
Everyone keeps saying the Nylander deal is fair. I totally disagree but let's roll with that and assume any other team would be happy to have him at 6.9.

The Leafs have 2 future top ten NHL scorers, and JT, another guy in the convo for the next 7 years. With this situation, and what will come with Reilly and Andersen, they cannot pay 7 million for 20 goals. They simply cannot. That ship sailed. They need to find 20 goals and 60 points from an entry level guy, or hope a guy like Kerfoot can provide it.

Keeping the top top top talent is far more important than keeping the second or third tier guys around, it's that simple, but unfortunately this is what they are doing.

Cody Ceci's awful hit for what he provides. Again, what he brings needs to be found internally, or on the cheap FA market or trade flyer, not at the highest cap hit possible for it. This is the way it has to be to keep these top of the NHL calibre guys. Most teams would be lucky to have one of them, so yes, they will pay 6.9 million for 60 points. Leafs simply cannot.

- aminnes


I think there's a better chance of Nylander being a 30G/80P guy over a full season. General rule of thumb is forwards usually have their breakout year around year 4.
Hypothetically, if those turn out to be Nylander numbers you have a super Phil Kessel comparison. Having Nylander at 1.1 Million less than Kessel on a deal he signed 5 years later is a pretty good deal.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Aug 20 @ 5:41 PM ET
I think there's a better chance of Nylander being a 30G/80P guy over a full season. General rule of thumb is forwards usually have their breakout year around year 4.
Hypothetically, if those turn out to be Nylander numbers you have a super Phil Kessel comparison. Having Nylander at 1.1 Million less than Kessel on a deal he signed 5 years later is a pretty good deal.

- MrBen


but is he tall, because Puljajarvi is like really tall, all the time.
matt1337
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: 925K. Talented player. (Lehtonen) Santo_44, ON
Joined: 09.28.2010

Aug 20 @ 5:41 PM ET
I say here are your 3 options

3 x 8
6 x 10
7 x 10.5

If you don't sign by x date (before training camp) these will be your options next year at this time. Have fun this winter.

- Azuredoom


I would tell him to go and try to get his deal from another team. If he can find a deal with them the leafs can't match, they trade him there. Teams don't want to send 4 1st round picks.

Can't see any team offering 10 mil even for him. Are teams really going to make him their highest paid player? Doubtful. Then he can finally sign the deal with the leafs.
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Aug 20 @ 5:41 PM ET
I think there's a better chance of Nylander being a 30G/80P guy over a full season. General rule of thumb is forwards usually have their breakout year around year 4.
Hypothetically, if those turn out to be Nylander numbers you have a super Phil Kessel comparison. Having Nylander at 1.1 Million less than Kessel on a deal he signed 5 years later is a pretty good deal.

- MrBen

You’re using Kessel as a comparison?

Mmmm why?
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Aug 20 @ 5:41 PM ET
To be clear - I am not in favour of trading Marner. I fully expect that reason will rule the day at the end of the process and that this negotiation 101 act of Darren Ferris' will not garner him any new results.

Let's say that Marner insists on 5x11.634. No one else is going to give him that, nor should they. Now is the time, sure, but if we overpay Marner by $2m, we'll pay for it constantly year in and year out until the contract expires. Him accepting a deal in the 9.5 - 10 range is still an over payment, but it's an over payment we can afford.

If we were to trade Nylander just to overpay Marner, we'll have weakened our team now and in the future because (1) Nylander's trade value is currently lower than it should be, (2) we'll have to weaken the 3rd line to supplement the 1st line, (3) I get that you don't agree, and the results will have to prove themselves one way or the other eventually, but I do think his $6.9m salary for his projected production is very good.

- Monkeypunk



it would seem that Dubas has drawn the line on the amount around 10.5... to position an obvious response to any low-end offer sheet - I don't believe that Marner at 10.5 means that Nylander needs to be moved... at least not until next summer.

the crux of the issue for the team would seem to be not having another prolongated holdout.... so overpay Marner (from 9.5 to 10.5) but get him signed before or at the season starting...

then pray like hell the cap goes up by about 5M next summer
Njuice
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.21.2013

Aug 20 @ 5:43 PM ET
you think with marner in the lineup the leafs are a wildcard team? who do you have finishing top 3 in the Atlantic?
- lonnyBohonos


he's a troll. obviously. the leafs will be a 100 point team for the next decade
Njuice
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.21.2013

Aug 20 @ 5:43 PM ET
derp
/dərp/

exclamation
1.
used as a substitute for speech regarded as meaningless or stupid, or to comment on a foolish or stupid action.

2.

- Aetherial


lol @ 2
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Aug 20 @ 5:44 PM ET
Bear in mind you have Nylander @ 6.9m x 5 years covering ages 23 - 28.

You trade that for Ryan Nugent - Hopkins @ 6m x 2 years covering ages 26-27. Is he the third line centre?

With this you trade the questionable Jeremy Bracco for the questionable Jesse Puljujarvi, except that Puljujarvi will need a contract in the $1.2m+ range . . .and won't be of any use unless he's in the top 6, which he wouldn't be - so you're actually paying more in cap hit for something you don't need and don't want for less time.

This is not to devalue RNH, he's a good player, but with only 2 years left on his contract, and the fact that he'd be a 3rd line centre making $6m, it's not an optimal deal.

- Monkeypunk


I was only looking at the names being mentioned.
Thanks for the analysis.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Aug 20 @ 5:44 PM ET
it would seem that Dubas has drawn the line on the amount around 10.5... to position an obvious response to any low-end offer sheet - I don't believe that Marner at 10.5 means that Nylander needs to be moved... at least not until next summer.

the crux of the issue for the team would seem to be not having another prolongated holdout.... so overpay Marner (from 9.5 to 10.5) but get him signed before or at the season starting...

then pray like hell the cap goes up by about 5M next summer

- BorjeFan4Ever


I think the 10.5 is probably for 6+ years. It could be more like 8-8.5 if he wants 3 years.
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Aug 20 @ 5:47 PM ET
I think the 10.5 is probably for 6+ years. It could be more like 8-8.5 if he wants 3 years.
- Aetherial


I hope you are right...

crazy... that Kucherov signed his 3 year RFA deal at under 5M....

somebody needs to call out the Toronto hockey media... they definitely own a part in making this "RFA summer" as stupid as it has been.

offer sheet bedlam
offer sheet bedlam....

all we heard from the moment Nylander signed was how many offer sheets the RFAs(mostly Marner) were going to get

they were WRONG
golfingsince
Location: This message is Marwood approved!
Joined: 11.30.2011

Aug 20 @ 5:55 PM ET
I think the 10.5 is probably for 6+ years. It could be more like 8-8.5 if he wants 3 years.
- Aetherial

If I was Marner I would target 4. Argue that his deal ends at a different time than Matthews and take less money.
golfingsince
Location: This message is Marwood approved!
Joined: 11.30.2011

Aug 20 @ 5:56 PM ET
I hope you are right...

crazy... that Kucherov signed his 3 year RFA deal at under 5M....

somebody needs to call out the Toronto hockey media... they definitely own a part in making this "RFA summer" as stupid as it has been.

offer sheet bedlam
offer sheet bedlam....

all we heard from the moment Nylander signed was how many offer sheets the RFAs(mostly Marner) were going to get

they were WRONG

- BorjeFan4Ever


There's no way of knowing for sure but I think many offer sheets went unsigned.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Aug 20 @ 5:57 PM ET
I hope you are right...

crazy... that Kucherov signed his 3 year RFA deal at under 5M....

somebody needs to call out the Toronto hockey media... they definitely own a part in making this "RFA summer" as stupid as it has been.

offer sheet bedlam
offer sheet bedlam....

all we heard from the moment Nylander signed was how many offer sheets the RFAs(mostly Marner) were going to get

they were WRONG

- BorjeFan4Ever


Could still happen if Marner holds out after the season has started and a team can come in under the 4-first threshold but still screw the Leafs because of the increased cap hit.

It seems that offer-sheets are not quite as likely as the media would like us to believe.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 20 @ 5:58 PM ET
There's no way of knowing for sure but I think many offer sheets went unsigned.
- golfingsince


if an offer sheet is not signed, is it really an offer sheet?
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Aug 20 @ 5:59 PM ET
If I was Marner I would target 4. Argue that his deal ends at a different time than Matthews and take less money.
- golfingsince


I imagine they have targeted that... but it walks him to UFA no?

Not sure the Leafs have an appetite for that, the year before Matthews expires and Matthews will have a NMC that final year.
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