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Forums :: Blog World :: Sean Maloughney: 10 Bold Predictions For The 2019/2020 Season
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Hunkulese
Calgary Flames
Location: QC
Joined: 09.30.2006

Aug 30 @ 11:10 AM ET
I agree, but I still don't think that Neal gets much time with McDavid, other than PP time. What we need is Neal to be semi-productive with RHN on the second line, he was to have more upside there than Lucic.

I still hate our blind homer "fans" on here though. If Neal puts up 25 goals this year they will never shut up. But if Neal being in the top 6 pushes Chaisson into the bottom 6, and Chaisson only puts up Lucic numbers (or god forbid Reider numbers), then we are really no further ahead and the extra costs absorbed taking Neal for Lucic become a big negative.

I can definitely see Flames fans side of the deal. Neal flat out sucked in their top 6, they had better options, and he is useless in any teams bottom 6. So, getting Lucic in the bottom 6 for them (also displacing Hathaway's salary in the truculence spot), at 750k savings, is a big win. The NMC is the only unknown in the deal for them, and who knows, maybe Lucic would be happy to leave Alberta for Seattle when the time comes.

- Beergu


The worry about the expansion draft isn't a thing. The Flames are going to be losing a defenceman. Even with protecting Lucic, the best Flames forward available would be Ryan or Jankowski. Best defencemen available would be Brodie, Hamonic, Kylington, or even Hanafin or Andersson if they have a bad year.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Aug 30 @ 11:20 AM ET
Yes Lucic's contract was the worst in the NHL AT THE TIME, 3 years ago. Edmonton has already paid for the worst part of the contract, now it is merely bad but not the worst Neal's is by far the worst of what is remaining.

Lucic's Contract

Year Edmonton Calgary
1 8 000 000 0
2 8 000 000 0
3 7 000 000 0
4 3 750 000 2 250 000
5 750 000 3 250 000
6 750 000 4 250 000
7 750 000 3 250 000


Edmonton 3 years of Lucic $29 Million - Calgary 4 years $13 million


Neal's Contract

Year Edmonton Calgary
1 0 5 750 000
2 5 750 000 0
3 5 750 000 0
4 5 750 000 0
5 5 750 000 0

Edmonton 4 years of Neal $23 Million - Calgary 1 year at $5.75 million

So Edmonton when all is said and done Edmonton will have spent a combined total of $52 million and Calgary only $18.75 million on these players.

So if throwing good money after bad is a good thing then Kenny gets a gold star.

- Tbor10

If he doesn't work out, he's bought out and the Oilers incur 1.8mil to their cap for 6 years. Along with the 750k for 3 years from the money retained on Lucic and you get a total of around 2.5mil. Had they kept Lucic, they'd have been stuck with either the full 6mil, most of it (the buyout wasn't friendly) or they'd have had to pay major assets to get another team to take on 3mil of it.

Instead of that, they MIGHT pay a 3rd if Neal works out for them and yet still get the benefit of the FAR smaller buyout. To break that down the options were as follows:

1.) retain Lucic and don't buy him out (6mil for 4 years)
2.) retain Lucic and buy him out (5.6mil yr 1, 4.1mil yr 2, 5.6mil yr 3, 625k x 3yrs)
3.) trade Lucic w/ half cap retained and pay at least a 1st
4.) trade for Neal and hope he succeeds; if not, buyout saves 3.1mil in yr 1, 1.6mil in yr 2 and 3.1mil in yr 3 at the cost of 1.8mil for 3 yrs after

Considering the situation the Oilers are faced with (possible further fumbling of McDavid's prime years), those cap savings over those years are FAR more valuable than either the conditional 3rd OR the 3 yrs of 1.8mil cap expenditure. If we're at that point in 2023-24 and those 1.8mil are impeding us, that likely means we're a winning team.

Continue to try to twist it in every way you want, it doesn't change the fact that the Oilers came out of this in better position to achieve their goals.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Aug 30 @ 11:21 AM ET
The worry about the expansion draft isn't a thing. The Flames are going to be losing a defenceman. Even with protecting Lucic, the best Flames forward available would be Ryan or Jankowski. Best defencemen available would be Brodie, Hamonic, Kylington, or even Hanafin or Andersson if they have a bad year.
- Hunkulese

Are you guys planning on having Brodie by then? I thought he was all but a goner.
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Aug 30 @ 11:45 AM ET
Yes
No
Maybe
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Aug 30 @ 11:48 AM ET
If he doesn't work out, he's bought out and the Oilers incur 1.8mil to their cap for 6 years. Along with the 750k for 3 years from the money retained on Lucic and you get a total of around 2.5mil. Had they kept Lucic, they'd have been stuck with either the full 6mil, most of it (the buyout wasn't friendly) or they'd have had to pay major assets to get another team to take on 3mil of it.

Instead of that, they MIGHT pay a 3rd if Neal works out for them and yet still get the benefit of the FAR smaller buyout. To break that down the options were as follows:

1.) retain Lucic and don't buy him out (6mil for 4 years)
2.) retain Lucic and buy him out (5.6mil yr 1, 4.1mil yr 2, 5.6mil yr 3, 625k x 3yrs)
3.) trade Lucic w/ half cap retained and pay at least a 1st
4.) trade for Neal and hope he succeeds; if not, buyout saves 3.1mil in yr 1, 1.6mil in yr 2 and 3.1mil in yr 3 at the cost of 1.8mil for 3 yrs after

Considering the situation the Oilers are faced with (possible further fumbling of McDavid's prime years), those cap savings over those years are FAR more valuable than either the conditional 3rd OR the 3 yrs of 1.8mil cap expenditure. If we're at that point in 2023-24 and those 1.8mil are impeding us, that likely means we're a winning team.

Continue to try to twist it in every way you want, it doesn't change the fact that the Oilers came out of this in better position to achieve their goals.

- MaximumBone

Yes
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Aug 30 @ 11:54 AM ET
Man I love the enthusiasm. I remember being excited about Neal as well. Good times!
- DuranDuran

His homerism knows No bounds

I mean even forgetting his thoughts on Neal, for a second the whole thing is nuts. (people are insanely hoping 60 pts, lol. If he scores 20 and 40 and it’s a massive success. )
“Kosk is gonna kill, our mediocre young defence kills, the unknown euros are all bangers etc etc etc”

Honestly, it sure would be nice if just once the koolaid drinkers were right. Obviously for the success part, but even just for their sanity.
It must take some serious fortitude to keep banging the drum offseason after offseason how good we’re gonna be after getting proven wildly wrong year after year after year...
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Aug 30 @ 12:36 PM ET
Yes
- HB77

Maybe
DuranDuran
Calgary Flames
Location: Quito
Joined: 09.29.2015

Aug 30 @ 1:21 PM ET
I agree, but I still don't think that Neal gets much time with McDavid, other than PP time. What we need is Neal to be semi-productive with RHN on the second line, he was to have more upside there than Lucic.

I still hate our blind homer "fans" on here though. If Neal puts up 25 goals this year they will never shut up. But if Neal being in the top 6 pushes Chaisson into the bottom 6, and Chaisson only puts up Lucic numbers (or god forbid Reider numbers), then we are really no further ahead and the extra costs absorbed taking Neal for Lucic become a big negative.

I can definitely see Flames fans side of the deal. Neal flat out sucked in their top 6, they had better options, and he is useless in any teams bottom 6. So, getting Lucic in the bottom 6 for them (also displacing Hathaway's salary in the truculence spot), at 750k savings, is a big win. The NMC is the only unknown in the deal for them, and who knows, maybe Lucic would be happy to leave Alberta for Seattle when the time comes.

- Beergu




This is all we are trying to say. Saying that JG and Monahan or Peters are all to blame is plain wrong.

I am sure numerous trips to the cup took their toll on Neal. I am sure Edmonton is getting a better, more rested version of The Real Deal. But he was also shadow of the player he was in previous seasons.

Calgary got an overpaid facepuncher, but they needed that facepuncher.

Seems both teams will be better by taking on the other teams steaming pile of poop.
DuranDuran
Calgary Flames
Location: Quito
Joined: 09.29.2015

Aug 30 @ 1:24 PM ET
His homerism knows No bounds

I mean even forgetting his thoughts on Neal, for a second the whole thing is nuts. (people are insanely hoping 60 pts, lol. If he scores 20 and 40 and it’s a massive success. )
“Kosk is gonna kill, our mediocre young defence kills, the unknown euros are all bangers etc etc etc”

Honestly, it sure would be nice if just once the koolaid drinkers were right. Obviously for the success part, but even just for their sanity.
It must take some serious fortitude to keep banging the drum offseason after offseason how good we’re gonna be after getting proven wildly wrong year after year after year...

- HB77


Every fan base has them. Most are newer fans. In time their hearts will be as black as ours!
Hunkulese
Calgary Flames
Location: QC
Joined: 09.30.2006

Aug 30 @ 1:40 PM ET
Are you guys planning on having Brodie by then? I thought he was all but a goner.
- MaximumBone


They pretty much guaranteed Brodie was staying when Stone was bought out. Double guaranteed once Valimaki ruined his knee. The only way he's gone now is if the Flame's season is a disaster and they trade him at the deadline.
Hunkulese
Calgary Flames
Location: QC
Joined: 09.30.2006

Aug 30 @ 1:43 PM ET

If we're at that point in 2023-24 and those 1.8mil are impeding us, that likely means we're a winning team.

- MaximumBone


They don't have much more than 1.9 million in space right now, and they're not close to being a winning team.
EdmHockeyMan
Referee
Location: Lumbridge, AB
Joined: 06.24.2013

Aug 30 @ 2:21 PM ET
I agree, but I still don't think that Neal gets much time with McDavid, other than PP time. What we need is Neal to be semi-productive with RHN on the second line, he was to have more upside there than Lucic.

I still hate our blind homer "fans" on here though. If Neal puts up 25 goals this year they will never shut up. But if Neal being in the top 6 pushes Chaisson into the bottom 6, and Chaisson only puts up Lucic numbers (or god forbid Reider numbers), then we are really no further ahead and the extra costs absorbed taking Neal for Lucic become a big negative.

I can definitely see Flames fans side of the deal. Neal flat out sucked in their top 6, they had better options, and he is useless in any teams bottom 6. So, getting Lucic in the bottom 6 for them (also displacing Hathaway's salary in the truculence spot), at 750k savings, is a big win. The NMC is the only unknown in the deal for them, and who knows, maybe Lucic would be happy to leave Alberta for Seattle when the time comes.

- Beergu


Not to mention it's close to his home in Vancouver if that helps. Just a few hours away via driving.
EdmHockeyMan
Referee
Location: Lumbridge, AB
Joined: 06.24.2013

Aug 30 @ 2:23 PM ET
Yes
No
Maybe
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes

- HB77


Edited for correction.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Aug 30 @ 2:38 PM ET
They don't have much more than 1.9 million in space right now, and they're not close to being a winning team.
- Hunkulese

Yes, that's my point. If we're at this point in 2023-24, McDavid and Draisaitl will have asked for a trade long ago and we'll be into a rebuild so the cap space doesn't mean much of anything.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Aug 30 @ 2:40 PM ET
They pretty much guaranteed Brodie was staying when Stone was bought out. Double guaranteed once Valimaki ruined his knee. The only way he's gone now is if the Flame's season is a disaster and they trade him at the deadline.
- Hunkulese

But I mean beyond this year? If he was that close to being traded and they have Andersson, Valimaki and Kylington pushing for spots, I can't imagine they sign him again. As such, he wouldn't be a factor for the expansion draft. That was what I was getting at.
Hunkulese
Calgary Flames
Location: QC
Joined: 09.30.2006

Aug 30 @ 2:54 PM ET
But I mean beyond this year? If he was that close to being traded and they have Andersson, Valimaki and Kylington pushing for spots, I can't imagine they sign him again. As such, he wouldn't be a factor for the expansion draft. That was what I was getting at.
- MaximumBone


Engelland was a UFA when Vegas took him. It wasn't an official rule, but the NHL told McPhee they really would prefer that he didn't take a signed player from a team and then sign away their free agents. So even if he's not extended before the draft, I could see Seattle taking Brodie.

I could also see them resigning Brodie depending on how much of a discount he'll give the team. I'd have to imagine that any extension would have at least a handshake deal that they'd protect him.

Also, management doesn't seem to be too high on Kylington.
Hunkulese
Calgary Flames
Location: QC
Joined: 09.30.2006

Aug 30 @ 3:00 PM ET
Actually, I guess I was confused. I thought the draft was after this season. Still doesn't really change much. Flames will still lose a defenceman since they'll be protecting Gio, Hanifin, Valimaki? Having to protect Lucic doesn't matter.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Aug 30 @ 3:01 PM ET
Engelland was a UFA when Vegas took him. It wasn't an official rule, but the NHL told McPhee they really would prefer that he didn't take a signed player from a team and then sign away their free agents. So even if he's not extended before the draft, I could see Seattle taking Brodie.

I could also see them resigning Brodie depending on how much of a discount he'll give the team. I'd have to imagine that any extension would have at least a handshake deal that they'd protect him.

Also, management doesn't seem to be too high on Kylington.

- Hunkulese

Unless Brodie agrees to sign a 1 yr deal after this one, that's hardly relevant. The expansion draft is after the 2020-21 season, not this year.

But if he does offer a major discount to stay with a team he believes in (a dubious proposal, in my opinion), then I understand his inclusion. Do you think that'd happened, though? I guess it's a choice between him and Hamonic.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Aug 30 @ 3:02 PM ET
Actually, I guess I was confused. I thought the draft was after this season. Still doesn't really change much. Flames will still lose a defenceman since they'll be protecting Gio, Hanifin, Valimaki? Having to protect Lucic doesn't matter.
- Hunkulese

For clarity, I wasn't contesting the Lucic not mattering point so much as clarifying what you meant by including Brodie.
shack67
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: NS
Joined: 07.05.2015

Aug 30 @ 3:18 PM ET
Goal and assist, 6 shots on goal for Puljujarvi today.
Helios
Calgary Flames
Location: AB
Joined: 08.11.2016

Aug 30 @ 3:21 PM ET
Are you guys planning on having Brodie by then? I thought he was all but a goner.
- MaximumBone


Whether we have Brodie for the expansion draft or not doesn't really matter. His point still stands. The Flames are going to lose a defenseman and not a foward. Even with Lucic, Calgary can protect every forward they need to protect. If Seattle feels the need to take Jankowski or Ryan over a defenseman then that is a win for the Flames.

Lucic having to be protected in the expansion draft is a non-issue for the Flames since Seattle is almost certainly taking a defenseman anyway.
DuranDuran
Calgary Flames
Location: Quito
Joined: 09.29.2015

Aug 30 @ 3:56 PM ET
Actually, I guess I was confused. I thought the draft was after this season. Still doesn't really change much. Flames will still lose a defenceman since they'll be protecting Gio, Hanifin, Valimaki? Having to protect Lucic doesn't matter.
- Hunkulese


Vali does not have to be protected due to draft year.
Hunkulese
Calgary Flames
Location: QC
Joined: 09.30.2006

Aug 30 @ 4:21 PM ET
Vali does not have to be protected due to draft year.
- DuranDuran


It's not draft year. It's seasons as a pro. He'll have three pro seasons by the time the expansion draft happens.

I don't know if there's a minimum number of games for a season to count, but it's three seasons as an NHL or AHL player.
Ihatebrianburke
Edmonton Oilers
Location: edmonton, AB
Joined: 12.19.2010

Aug 30 @ 5:33 PM ET
The negative impact of the Flames having to protect Lucic in the expansion draft is so overrated. You can only lose 1 player and we were going to lose a good player to Seattle anyway as all good teams will.


LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCH will be such a great team guy in Calgary he will waive his NMC so we wont need to protect him!

- DEDDIE

Yes, out of the goodness of his heart he’s going to give up control of his career
Ihatebrianburke
Edmonton Oilers
Location: edmonton, AB
Joined: 12.19.2010

Aug 30 @ 5:34 PM ET
Thanks for reading.
- freelancer

That wasn’t directed at you fanboy
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