Here is some stats that put how bad this contract is into perspective.
Keller had a whopping 67% offensive zone starts last year, and 18:14 TOI. Those are the usage numbers of a first line purely offensive forward. And yet, what were his even strength points? 28. That's good for #194 in the league, the same amount of even strength points as Connor Sheary, and one more than Patrick Marleau. Sheary played 14:37 and Marleau 16:21.
In fact, the Sheary comparison is apt, because he also was used purely offensively, with 70% offensive zone starts. Yet Sheary has the same amount of even strength points in over 180 minutes less of even strength ice time. The difference here is Keller had first unit PP time (more than double the PP time Sheary had), where he didn't score (1G), but collected 18 assists (9 primary, 9 secondary). Yet Sheary (3.0 mil AAV) is a third line player who occasionally gets to play with first or second line players, while Keller is being paid first line money.
You may say Sheary was on a more offensive team, but Buffalo was 23rd in scoring and Arizona 28, with only 12 goals separating them. Very comparible.
The point isn't Sheary. I could do the same thing with a variety of second and third liners who put up 27-29 even strength points. The point is this article says, "screw defense, the kid can score." In actuality he is a 2nd liner who sucks defensively.
In 3-4 years all the second liners who suck defensively might be making 7 mill, but right NOW it's an overpayment of about 2 to 2.5 million.
Here is some stats that put how bad this contract is into perspective.
Keller had a whopping 67% offensive zone starts last year, and 18:14 TOI. Those are the usage numbers of a first line purely offensive forward. And yet, what were his even strength points? 28. That's good for #194 in the league, the same amount of even strength points as Connor Sheary, and one more than Patrick Marleau. Sheary played 14:37 and Marleau 16:21.
In fact, the Sheary comparison is apt, because he also was used purely offensively, with 70% offensive zone starts. Yet Sheary has the same amount of even strength points in over 180 minutes less of even strength ice time. The difference here is Keller had first unit PP time (more than double the PP time Sheary had), where he didn't score (1G), but collected 18 assists (9 primary, 9 secondary). Yet Sheary (3.0 mil AAV) is a third line player who occasionally gets to play with first or second line players, while Keller is being paid first line money.
You may say Sheary was on a more offensive team, but Buffalo was 23rd in scoring and Arizona 28, with only 12 goals separating them. Very comparible.
The point isn't Sheary. I could do the same thing with a variety of second and third liners who put up 27-29 even strength points. The point is this article says, "screw defense, the kid can score." In actuality he is a 2nd liner who sucks defensively.
In 3-4 years all the second liners who suck defensively might be making 7 mill, but right NOW it's an overpayment of about 2 to 2.5 million. - matty12345
Look at the raw numbers. Tell me how many offensive zone starts Keller had versus other players. Percentage is one thing. How many in relation to other players also matters in context. Some teams simply create more offensive zone starts.
