You know Dubnyk was 3rd in Vezina voting in 2014 and 5th in Vezina voting in 2016.

Sort of makes him a top 5 goalie in the time period you're isolating.
- Monkeypunk

that's exactly my point.
he had a few good seasons - doesn't mean that was the standard for him.
he wasn't good before with edm and nsh. after a few good seasons, with minny not spectacular either (although still a good nhl starter).

Yes but where is that money coming from? Horton and Clarkson are a wash with Marners contract. Muzzin, Barrie and Ceci are all up for renewal next season. Ceci is gone for sure but I can guarantee the Leafs can only keep one of Muzzin or Barrie plus the Cap limit is rumoured to be frozen for the next 2 years.

Leafs projected Cap space for next season is 15 mill. The Leafs have 1 Dman past next season. It is not going to be easy.

I also dont see Marner's deal as an overpayment. 11 mill was the expectation he got a little less than that. Marner also confirmed he got two offersheets and declined both because he wanted to be a Leaf, he also confirmed there was no 7 year 77 mill offer.

Leafs have some great young players but its a team game. Having Marner Matthews and Nylander is great but unless there is a balance across the entire team they wont win. McDavid being the best player in the league cant even get his team to the playoffs alone.

East is scary this season.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

15 milly .....5/6 guys = 1.5 milly. Dermott re-upped ~ 2.5. 10+ milly to sign 2 guys to play with Dermott and Rielly in the top 4. No room for any big names but defintely room for a couple of 3/4 types.

THis team will go as far as their stars take them.

Tampa is not set up any differently. Cheap 4th line and bottom pairing D.

Problem with this is that goalies are not easily to rank based on stats. A goalies success heavily relies on his team. If the team gives up grade A scoring chances often, his numbers will suffer, however if the team keeps them to the perimeter and the goalie faces easy shots, his numbers will rise. People like to look at the number of shots per game but you have to consider the quality of shots. 40 shots from the perimeter is not dangerous. I believe Dubnyk is easily a better goalie than Kuemper, Markstrom, Murray maybe even Rinne.

It is really hard to make a list of the top 10 because there are so many good goalies out there.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

thank you for understanding goalies and evaluating them.

I have always wanted to see the Leafs win, of course, but I was happy when the cap was brought in. At least I would not feel like they "bought" a championship. Being a Jays fan in the division with New York and Boston makes a lot of people sensitive to how poopty that can be.

Having said all that, I am also sick of thinking more about cap implications than having good players.
- Aetherial

I feel exactly the same. I dislike all the cap talk about players, but I love the cap for the competitive balance. When you look at the disparities in baseball, it's not even a competitive league. The cap is in the spirit of sporting fairness.

Oh come on.
- Scabeh

It was a good reply and you know it.

😉

Interesting.
- Zezel

I guess Anaheim kept the right goalie.

Problem with this is that goalies are not easily to rank based on stats. A goalies success heavily relies on his team. If the team gives up grade A scoring chances often, his numbers will suffer, however if the team keeps them to the perimeter and the goalie faces easy shots, his numbers will rise. People like to look at the number of shots per game but you have to consider the quality of shots. 40 shots from the perimeter is not dangerous. I believe Dubnyk is easily a better goalie than Kuemper, Markstrom, Murray maybe even Rinne.

It is really hard to make a list of the top 10 because there are so many good goalies out there.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

This is true and one of the reasons why Andersen is great. Watching the games makes it apparent that he faces a lot of shots and high quality chances, makes ten bell saves standing on his head and steals games for the Leafs. His numbers would be even better if he were playing for a stingier defensive team.

You never ever pay goalies that much.

Half of them drop off out of no where by the time they are 30.
- Santo_44

Thanks! Now you just put a hex on Andersen. 🥵

It is a team game, but star power is paramount.
Agree that they can keep only one of Muzzin or Barrie
There are at least 2 dmen close to ready to joining the big club. If we do not see them this season, it will be next.

Rielly, Muzzin/Barrie, Dermott, Liljegren, Sandin + some Scrap heap pickup, would be my prediction.

The east has a lot of good teams. People have called the Leafs a failure for not getting past round 1 the last 3 years, but let's keep in mind how young their best players are, and how good Washington and Boston were during that time. It is tough for ANYONE to win the east. Tampa has been favoured for how long now?
- Aetherial

Also the ridiculously stupid playoffs format that puts the Leafs against the 4th and 3rd best team in the entire league last year and the year before when the Leafs are also up there in league standings.

5v5 GSAA (min 2500 minutes)

1. Gibson (18.66) <-- Holy Christ
2. Andersen (9.88)
3. Rinne (9.64)
4. Holtby (8.41)
5. Markstrom (3.92)
6. Vasilievskiy (0.98)
7. Price (0.77)
8. Bobrovsky (0.2)
12. Dubnyk (-19.14)

Now, the Leafs PK was pretty weak, but when you consider all states, and not just 5v5, keeping min 2500 minutes:

1. Gibson
2. Bishop
3. Lehner
4. Markstrom
5. Kuemper
6. Vasilievskiy
7. Rinne
8. Murray
9. Andersen
10. Holtby
11. Fleury
12. Bobrovsky
13. Price
.
.
.
24. Dubnyk.
- Monkeypunk

Somebody needs to do Bernier vs. Reimer circa 2013-16' ...just for poops n giggles.

I guess Anaheim kept the right goalie.
- PatC80

They did, but they had two incredible goalies.

Problem with this is that goalies are not easily to rank based on stats. A goalies success heavily relies on his team. If the team gives up grade A scoring chances often, his numbers will suffer, however if the team keeps them to the perimeter and the goalie faces easy shots, his numbers will rise. People like to look at the number of shots per game but you have to consider the quality of shots. 40 shots from the perimeter is not dangerous. I believe Dubnyk is easily a better goalie than Kuemper, Markstrom, Murray maybe even Rinne.

It is really hard to make a list of the top 10 because there are so many good goalies out there.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

I will agree with this, in theory. GSAA is an attempt to baseline expected save percentages based on shot type/difficulty, and then average it out to a league standard. It's far from perfect, but it's a good gauge.

That said, I think your point is that goaltending is a very thing to quantify because while last year Dubnyk crapped the bed, and Quick was even worse - how much of that is shaken confidence that they can reclaim? How much is exhaustion? How much is just an inability of the defense to do a basic job of basic things that other goalies can rely on? And this I would agree on.

A good goalie is established through consistency - a trend is formed. It's why you can look at Henrik Lundqvist for all those years and know he was an elite goalie. But you an also look at him now and know that he isn't anymore. Some stats, like the GSAA, come as close to recognizing this type of thing as any.

15 milly .....5/6 guys = 1.5 milly. Dermott re-upped ~ 2.5. 10+ milly to sign 2 guys to play with Dermott and Rielly in the top 4. No room for any big names but defintely room for a couple of 3/4 types.

THis team will go as far as their stars take them.

Tampa is not set up any differently. Cheap 4th line and bottom pairing D.
- The Law

finding some bargains here is one way to efficiently use your salary cap space.

minimum salary goes up on a set scale, $25K every two years in recent years, and ~$50-$100k going forward. well below the actual 'inflation' of the salary cap.

so, you keep your 4th line/bottom pair dman cost relatively flat year-to-year, and save any increase in the cap for signing better players.

Leafs got what they wanted....Marner Long term, staggered against Matthews deal, 3rd in line with Matthews and Tavares. Marner got....what Leafs offered in June minus 1 year (7 to 6). Marner did not get the 3 yr home run walk-up to free agency. He did get relief from the massive hit on his Brand when it was perceived he was a greedy SOB for turning down/bypassing the original Leaf monster deal of 7 year for ~11MM.

Cap is going up...$10.893 MM will probably look like a bargain by year 5. that's the trade off. Overpaid years 1 - 3, at or underpaid years 3-6. Leafs are flush with cash available to eat more dead money (i.e., Clarkson contract) to create cap room as needed. And re market precedent, who cares. We have our core...let the rest of the teams burn.

Somebody needs to do Bernier vs. Reimer circa 2013-16' ...just for poops n giggles.
- The Law

poops and or giggles:

Reimer 2015-2016 (8.59)
Bernier 2013-2014 (4.45)
Reimer 2012-2013 (0.61)
Reimer 2014-2015 (-2.54)
Reimer 2013-2014 (-3.77)
Bernier 2014-2015 (-4.03)
Bernier 2015-2016 (-14.84)

that's exactly my point.
he had a few good seasons - doesn't mean that was the standard for him.
he wasn't good before with edm and nsh. after a few good seasons, with minny not spectacular either (although still a good nhl starter).
- MaximusAurelius

You could see it in him in Edmonton. I don't know if they gave up too early on him or if it was the giving up that led him to take hockey more seriously (he has been quoted as saying so), but Dubnyk always had talent. He had a few good years and has had a few bad ones since.

That said, Andersen has had 1 year where he posted a negative GSAA in his career. Dubnyk has had several.

Bottom line, I think Andersen is a top-10 goalie in the league and he belongs in the conversation as a top-5.

5v5 GSAA (min 2500 minutes)

1. Gibson (18.66) <-- Holy Christ
2. Andersen (9.88)
3. Rinne (9.64)
4. Holtby (8.41)
5. Markstrom (3.92)
6. Vasilievskiy (0.98)
7. Price (0.77)
8. Bobrovsky (0.2)
12. Dubnyk (-19.14)

Now, the Leafs PK was pretty weak, but when you consider all states, and not just 5v5, keeping min 2500 minutes:

1. Gibson
2. Bishop
3. Lehner
4. Markstrom
5. Kuemper
6. Vasilievskiy
7. Rinne
8. Murray
9. Andersen
10. Holtby
11. Fleury
12. Bobrovsky
13. Price
.
.
.
24. Dubnyk.
- Monkeypunk

Ya the dubnyk comparison is just wrong. Doesnt work at all.

great. another celery cap expert.

that's a false statement. the way LTIR works, not it would not have made it harder for the leafs.

used car salesman must love you. you must lap up everything they sell you, the way you lapped that bullpoop from ferris.
- Tumbleweed

I don't know why this has been so difficult to comprehend, but I never once said anything about it being practical, an offer sheet being signed, the team buying what he had to say.... Anything like that.

I literally said right out of the gate that agents are scum and ferris would continue to leverage an offer sheet. That's it. Anything beyond that you've come to on your own.

You'll see in ferris' own words in the article that they intended to continue to leverage as much.

I have always wanted to see the Leafs win, of course, but I was happy when the cap was brought in. At least I would not feel like they "bought" a championship. Being a Jays fan in the division with New York and Boston makes a lot of people sensitive to how poopty that can be.

Having said all that, I am also sick of thinking more about cap implications than having good players.
- Aetherial

Concerning the leafs, i hated the cap. The leafs only advantage back in the day was their ability to spend money (which they rarely did anyway). Now with the cap, they're handcuffed. At least now its forced them to get better management and with more sound plans.

Concerning the leafs, i hated the cap. The leafs only advantage back in the day was their ability to spend money (which they rarely did anyway). Now with the cap, they're handcuffed. At least now its forced them to get better management and with more sound plans.
- Fakepartofme

It just took us a while to get that competent management team in place.

I don't know why this has been so difficult to comprehend, but I never once said anything about it being practical, an offer sheet being signed, the team buying what he had to say.... Anything like that.

I literally said right out of the gate that agents are scum and ferris would continue to leverage an offer sheet. That's it. Anything beyond that you've come to on your own.

You'll see in ferris' own words in the article that they intended to continue to leverage as much.
- joel878

Back again with this poop?

How about Marner's words where he said he didn't want to go that route?

Cap is going up...$10.893 MM will probably look like a bargain by year 5. that's the trade off. Overpaid years 1 - 3, at or underpaid years 3-6. Leafs are flush with cash available to eat more dead money (i.e., Clarkson contract) to create cap room as needed. And re market precedent, who cares. We have our core...let the rest of the teams burn.
- parmen

that's good point. it's just a timing thing.

bruins have mcavoy underpaid years for the next 3 years. the first 3 years of his contract will have him overpaid.

I have always wanted to see the Leafs win, of course, but I was happy when the cap was brought in. At least I would not feel like they "bought" a championship. Being a Jays fan in the division with New York and Boston makes a lot of people sensitive to how poopty that can be.

Having said all that, I am also sick of thinking more about cap implications than having good players.
- Aetherial

Would be nice if there was a luxury tax system that let teams go over 5-10% though.

Greedy Mitch signed yet?





FIIIIIIRE DUUUUUUUUBAAAAAAASS!!!!!!!