While I agree that they're clearly going to regress, this line strikes me as odd and inconsistent:

Considering their entire bottom-6 has yet to be on for a 5-on-5 goal for, the other end of the percentages will also likely skew up to account for some of the difference. Further, while the possession numbers haven't looked strong, their xGF number stands above 50% despite that. Perusing the heatmaps of the first few games, you can see what the eye tells in that Tippett has the team doing much better limiting chances in the slot.

The team is a bubble team at their full-season best.
- MaximumBone

Right, so for them to make the playoffs, they just need McDavid to continue to score at a 200 points pace, and their bottom lines just need to continue to not get scored on for a full season.

Realistically, they'll be in the basement again by xmas. The Oilers will only go as far as McD can carry them, and one man can't carry an NHL team very far.