I think we're still learning how Ralph handles lines. He's almost as extreme on zone starts as Phil, but he's willing to mix Skinner with 2 strong defensive forwards and have them take heavy dzone starts. For all the talk of Mitts playing strong defensively, the line has high ozone starts and almost no production.

Predicting lines is really predicting Ralph. You can't argue with the results so far. If you suddenly swap Tage in for Sobotka, you have a defensive issue that needs to be accounted for.
- Lunaion

Great point, we are just learning about how Krueger coaches, and it seems to be working, Botts has actually set himself up nicely with all the D he has, a move will come and it hopefully be for that 2nd line producer

I have not seen this at all, id say the opposite *he comes out with a turnover more often than not.
- Sabres1523

*This year so far.

I am somewhat worried Fitz will have one of his ridiculous 400 yard games this sunday.

I know our defense is elite, but still.

I am somewhat worried Fitz will have one of his ridiculous 400 yard games this sunday.

I know our defense is elite, but still.
- jcragcrumple

Nah. If Fitzy gets in there, he’s in for a long and painful day.

Nah. If Fitzy gets in there, he’s in for a long and painful day.
- PrinceChill

Fitzgerald is starting

Nah. If Fitzy gets in there, he’s in for a long and painful day.
- PrinceChill

Their coach said today that he's starting. I'm sure you're right, but I can just picture him having a "good fitz" day and throw 4 TDs somehow. It would be so Bills

I am somewhat worried Fitz will have one of his ridiculous 400 yard games this sunday.

I know our defense is elite, but still.
- jcragcrumple

Rosen is playing, last I heard.

If you poke around quanthockey com you’ll see that Montour is almost as good as Risto at a lot of things. His P/60 is close(Risto 1.342, Montour 1.141), his P/60PP isn’t as close but still okay(Risto 4.356 Montour 2.418). His P/GP is 80% of what Risto gives(Risto .551 Montour .427). His blocks are almost identical. Sure Risto hits 2 to 3 times more than him. And Risto plays 3 to 4 minutes a night more than him too.

My point is that Montour isn’t that much worse than Risto. Sure he is a year older. And while Risto has done all this against the opponent’s top lines and Montour had Fowler and Lindholm playing that role to allow him to play against more favorable matchups, Montour has been able to produce points at around 80% of what Risto does per 60 minutes and even scores slightly more goals!

I mean, in almost every category Risto is better except goals/60 where Montour does edge him out. Montour does edge him out in even strength P/60, Montour 1.119 Risto 1.025.

P/60PP where Risto is 4.356 to Montour’s 2.418 isn’t really close at all I guess. And hits, Risto 235 to Montour 99 last year, that’s not close either. But besides that, Montour has managed to achieve close to 80% of what Risto does playing against weaker competition!

It’s not as if there are people around here who think Risto sucks and can’t wait for Montour. It’s not like people don’t appreciate Risto for his size and strength. But in case those people do exist, no worries! Because even if we trade Risto at least we will have someone to fill in that is 4 inches shorter, 20 pounds lighter, a year older, and has been able to almost match what Risto produces albeit against lesser competition and on a better team.

You may say “but Montour hasn’t had to match up against the opponent’s top lines, Anaheim had Lindholm and Fowler for that.” You might wonder what effect playing so much more and being relied upon on the PK has in these stats. You might worry about our team physicality and where all these 100s of hits will come from if Risto is Traded and Montour takes his spot.

All I can tell you is, don’t worry, because Montour has almost been able to match Risto’s point production per 60 minutes played with more favorable matchups while not being burdened with playing the top role. Sure we will miss out on the grit and toughness. Sure we will miss out on the hits. But we haven’t watched Montour close enough to see all the mistakes he makes so he must be better!!!

Great point, we are just learning about how Krueger coaches, and it seems to be working, Botts has actually set himself up nicely with all the D he has, a move will come and it hopefully be for that 2nd line producer
- Buff36

MoJo, Miller, and Joker were tremendous additions. He got MoJo for a reasonable price and term. He's given us a 2nd line that can play defense and produce. It's a massive change from last year.

Their coach said today that he's starting. I'm sure you're right, but I can just picture him having a "good fitz" day and throw 4 TDs somehow. It would be so Bills
- jcragcrumple

I think you are underestimating how bad that team is in general. The reason they have Fitz in there is Rosen would get killed.

I think you are underestimating how bad that team is in general. The reason they have Fitz in there is Rosen would get killed.
- Sabre_Tooth

On a logical level, I know you're right. I just would have preferred Rosen. The last thing we need is Fitz hitting all the combos and going into God mode like he occasionally can.

Bad Fitz. Let's get bad Fitz

MoJo, Miller, and Joker were tremendous additions. He got MoJo for a reasonable price and term. He's given us a 2nd line that can play defense and produce. It's a massive change from last year.
- Lunaion

Yes it is, and we have a nice blend of young D and forwards coming up through the ranks. When he chooses to Botts is holding some cards in his hand to make a move

On a logical level, I know you're right. I just would have preferred Rosen. The last thing we need is Fitz hitting all the combos and going into God mode like he occasionally can.

Bad Fitz. Let's get bad Fitz
- jcragcrumple

I honestly think we cover the 16.5. This is a big game for the Bills to show they are actually legit. Having a close game against a team that has to have the least talented roster in the NFL would be a blow to the momentum of the season.

Now on the other hand, Miami does move the ball much better with Fitz out there. I have enough confidence in our D that we can turn the ball over 2-3 times.

34-6 Bills

I am the one that says he needs lots of work why are you coming at me some people wanted him in the lineup now
- gerbe75pts

and yet you want him to lead the WHL in scoring... RELAX... just let the year playout .
I'm coming at you? you and I have very different ideas of what coming at you means.

If you poke around quanthockey com you’ll see that Montour is almost as good as Risto at a lot of things. His P/60 is close(Risto 1.342, Montour 1.141), his P/60PP isn’t as close but still okay(Risto 4.356 Montour 2.418). His P/GP is 80% of what Risto gives(Risto .551 Montour .427). His blocks are almost identical. Sure Risto hits 2 to 3 times more than him. And Risto plays 3 to 4 minutes a night more than him too.

My point is that Montour isn’t that much worse than Risto. Sure he is a year older. And while Risto has done all this against the opponent’s top lines and Montour had Fowler and Lindholm playing that role to allow him to play against more favorable matchups, Montour has been able to produce points at around 80% of what Risto does per 60 minutes and even scores slightly more goals!

I mean, in almost every category Risto is better except goals/60 where Montour does edge him out. Montour does edge him out in even strength P/60, Montour 1.119 Risto 1.025.

P/60PP where Risto is 4.356 to Montour’s 2.418 isn’t really close at all I guess. And hits, Risto 235 to Montour 99 last year, that’s not close either. But besides that, Montour has managed to achieve close to 80% of what Risto does playing against weaker competition!

It’s not as if there are people around here who think Risto sucks and can’t wait for Montour. It’s not like people don’t appreciate Risto for his size and strength. But in case those people do exist, no worries! Because even if we trade Risto at least we will have someone to fill in that is 4 inches shorter, 20 pounds lighter, a year older, and has been able to almost match what Risto produces albeit against lesser competition and on a better team.

You may say “but Montour hasn’t had to match up against the opponent’s top lines, Anaheim had Lindholm and Fowler for that.” You might wonder what effect playing so much more and being relied upon on the PK has in these stats. You might worry about our team physicality and where all these 100s of hits will come from if Risto is Traded and Montour takes his spot.

All I can tell you is, don’t worry, because Montour has almost been able to match Risto’s point production per 60 minutes played with more favorable matchups while not being burdened with playing the top role. Sure we will miss out on the grit and toughness. Sure we will miss out on the hits. But we haven’t watched Montour close enough to see all the mistakes he makes so he must be better!!!
- Beethoven

If you really want to compare the 2, I think you really have to strip off the PP time. It really distorts things and it's pretty clear Risto is not getting that spot back any time soon.

Over the last 2 seasons, Montour is .81 p/60 ES, Risto is .76. In most categories, it's Montour who has been the better player.

If you poke around quanthockey com you’ll see that Montour is almost as good as Risto at a lot of things. His P/60 is close(Risto 1.342, Montour 1.141), his P/60PP isn’t as close but still okay(Risto 4.356 Montour 2.418). His P/GP is 80% of what Risto gives(Risto .551 Montour .427). His blocks are almost identical. Sure Risto hits 2 to 3 times more than him. And Risto plays 3 to 4 minutes a night more than him too.

My point is that Montour isn’t that much worse than Risto. Sure he is a year older. And while Risto has done all this against the opponent’s top lines and Montour had Fowler and Lindholm playing that role to allow him to play against more favorable matchups, Montour has been able to produce points at around 80% of what Risto does per 60 minutes and even scores slightly more goals!

I mean, in almost every category Risto is better except goals/60 where Montour does edge him out. Montour does edge him out in even strength P/60, Montour 1.119 Risto 1.025.

P/60PP where Risto is 4.356 to Montour’s 2.418 isn’t really close at all I guess. And hits, Risto 235 to Montour 99 last year, that’s not close either. But besides that, Montour has managed to achieve close to 80% of what Risto does playing against weaker competition!

It’s not as if there are people around here who think Risto sucks and can’t wait for Montour. It’s not like people don’t appreciate Risto for his size and strength. But in case those people do exist, no worries! Because even if we trade Risto at least we will have someone to fill in that is 4 inches shorter, 20 pounds lighter, a year older, and has been able to almost match what Risto produces albeit against lesser competition and on a better team.

You may say “but Montour hasn’t had to match up against the opponent’s top lines, Anaheim had Lindholm and Fowler for that.” You might wonder what effect playing so much more and being relied upon on the PK has in these stats. You might worry about our team physicality and where all these 100s of hits will come from if Risto is Traded and Montour takes his spot.

All I can tell you is, don’t worry, because Montour has almost been able to match Risto’s point production per 60 minutes played with more favorable matchups while not being burdened with playing the top role. Sure we will miss out on the grit and toughness. Sure we will miss out on the hits. But we haven’t watched Montour close enough to see all the mistakes he makes so he must be better!!!
- Beethoven

No one complained about his point production.

Last year the team scored 59 5v5 goals and gave up 94 with Risto on the ice. Without him on the ice they scored 95 and gave up 91. It's really not rocket science.

I honestly think we cover the 16.5. This is a big game for the Bills to show they are actually legit. Having a close game against a team that has to have the least talented roster in the NFL would be a blow to the momentum of the season.

Now on the other hand, Miami does move the ball much better with Fitz out there. I have enough confidence in our D that we can turn the ball over 2-3 times.

34-6 Bills
- Sabre_Tooth

If the Bills D plays anywhere near the level they played vs NE they will crush Miami. They should be able to run the ball all day against the Dolphins. Still, is one of those games against a division rival where crazy things might happen. Dolphins being winless makes them more determined, but they really are not good.
Squish the fish

No one complained about his point production.

Last year the team scored 59 5v5 goals and gave up 94 with Risto on the ice. Without him on the ice they scored 95 and gave up 91. It's really not rocket science.
- matty12345

yeah but you cant really look at those number like that... Ristro also plays against much better players than the other guys with a lot more minutes. Is he perfect hell no.... but posting numbers saying look at the number doesn't tell the whole story, not even close. when your playing on a bad team, and you are playing against Sid, Ovie ETC , what do you expect his number to look like?? Honestly he one guy.

If the Bills D plays anywhere near the level they played vs NE they will crush Miami. They should be able to run the ball all day against the Dolphins. Still, is one of those games against a division rival where crazy things might happen. Dolphins being winless makes them more determined, but they really are not good.
Squish the fish
- Ratsreign

If Hyde can get an INT against Brady, we can almost guarantee the D will get at least one, most likely even more, playing against Fitz.

If the Bills D plays anywhere near the level they played vs NE they will crush Miami. They should be able to run the ball all day against the Dolphins. Still, is one of those games against a division rival where crazy things might happen. Dolphins being winless makes them more determined, but they really are not good.
Squish the fish
- Ratsreign

as long as we don't turn the ball over, we win this game easy.

If you really want to compare the 2, I think you really have to strip off the PP time. It really distorts things and it's pretty clear Risto is not getting that spot back any time soon.

Over the last 2 seasons, Montour is .81 p/60 ES, Risto is .76. In most categories, it's Montour who has been the better player.
- Lunaion

Slightly better with better matchups.

No one complained about his point production.

Last year the team scored 59 5v5 goals and gave up 94 with Risto on the ice. Without him on the ice they scored 95 and gave up 91. It's really not rocket science.
- matty12345

He is on ice for almost half the game against the better competition.

If you poke around quanthockey com you’ll see that Montour is almost as good as Risto at a lot of things. His P/60 is close(Risto 1.342, Montour 1.141), his P/60PP isn’t as close but still okay(Risto 4.356 Montour 2.418). His P/GP is 80% of what Risto gives(Risto .551 Montour .427). His blocks are almost identical. Sure Risto hits 2 to 3 times more than him. And Risto plays 3 to 4 minutes a night more than him too.

My point is that Montour isn’t that much worse than Risto. Sure he is a year older. And while Risto has done all this against the opponent’s top lines and Montour had Fowler and Lindholm playing that role to allow him to play against more favorable matchups, Montour has been able to produce points at around 80% of what Risto does per 60 minutes and even scores slightly more goals!

I mean, in almost every category Risto is better except goals/60 where Montour does edge him out. Montour does edge him out in even strength P/60, Montour 1.119 Risto 1.025.

P/60PP where Risto is 4.356 to Montour’s 2.418 isn’t really close at all I guess. And hits, Risto 235 to Montour 99 last year, that’s not close either. But besides that, Montour has managed to achieve close to 80% of what Risto does playing against weaker competition!

It’s not as if there are people around here who think Risto sucks and can’t wait for Montour. It’s not like people don’t appreciate Risto for his size and strength. But in case those people do exist, no worries! Because even if we trade Risto at least we will have someone to fill in that is 4 inches shorter, 20 pounds lighter, a year older, and has been able to almost match what Risto produces albeit against lesser competition and on a better team.

You may say “but Montour hasn’t had to match up against the opponent’s top lines, Anaheim had Lindholm and Fowler for that.” You might wonder what effect playing so much more and being relied upon on the PK has in these stats. You might worry about our team physicality and where all these 100s of hits will come from if Risto is Traded and Montour takes his spot.

All I can tell you is, don’t worry, because Montour has almost been able to match Risto’s point production per 60 minutes played with more favorable matchups while not being burdened with playing the top role. Sure we will miss out on the grit and toughness. Sure we will miss out on the hits. But we haven’t watched Montour close enough to see all the mistakes he makes so he must be better!!!
- Beethoven

They're very similar. One has a better shot, one is tougher.

How bout the ducks can have Montour back, and we get Kase

They can keep Guhle and the 1st

He is on ice for almost half the game against the better competition.
- Beethoven

Adjusted to Goals for/against per 60 minutes (that means the stat is the same regardless of ice time) Risto has a GF/60 of 2.3 and a GA/60 of 3.7. I wish I had access to breakdowns of hist TOI vs 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines. It's almost certainly not as extreme as people claim it to be, but I can't really be sure without the stats. Without stats I'll have to take your word for it.

Adjusted to Goals for/against per 60 minutes (that means the stat is the same regardless of ice time) Risto has a GF/60 of 2.3 and a GA/60 of 3.7. I wish I had access to breakdowns of hist TOI vs 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines. It's almost certainly not as extreme as people claim it to be, but I can't really be sure without the stats. Without stats I'll have to take your word for it.
- matty12345

What that stat doesn't account for is the caliber of the players he's facing in comparison to someone else.