What that stat doesn't account for is the caliber of the players he's facing in comparison to someone else.
- HonkFortheGoose

Like I said, I really wish I had access to those breakdowns (1st line, 2nd line, etc). Personally, I don't think Risto plays as much against 1st lines as people think he does, but I'm not going to make the argument without the statistics. Maybe someone else here has a site that shows that stuff.

Adjusted to Goals for/against per 60 minutes (that means the stat is the same regardless of ice time) Risto has a GF/60 of 2.3 and a GA/60 of 3.7. I wish I had access to breakdowns of hist TOI vs 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines. It's almost certainly not as extreme as people claim it to be, but I can't really be sure without the stats. Without stats I'll have to take your word for it.
- matty12345

Part of my point is that you wear down playing more minutes. Part of it is that he is the one put in against the better competition.

I wonder if your GA/60 is 5v5 or does it include the PK. Because that would account for a lot of goals against.

Part of my point is that you wear down playing more minutes. Part of it is that he is the one put in against the better competition.

I wonder if your GA/60 is 5v5 or does it include the PK. Because that would account for a lot of goals against.
- Beethoven

That's 5v5.

Here's a good article on why quality of competiition isn't really a thing::
https://www.vancourier.co...xperts-anymore-1.23414544

He is on ice for almost half the game against the better competition.
- Beethoven

He also gets more minutes with Eichel than anyone else.

For every disadvantage he’s given it also comes with perks

What that stat doesn't account for is the caliber of the players he's facing in comparison to someone else.
- HonkFortheGoose

And again, which is always conveniently left out, he’s the most common guy used D man with Jack Eichel by hundreds of minutes since they’ve been here together

And again, which is always conveniently left out, he’s the most common guy used D man with Jack Eichel by hundreds of minutes since they’ve been here together
- OneKaneOneCup

Very true, though I didn't necessarily discount that either. In all fairness though, Eichel isn't exactly the most defensively responsible person to be out there with, so while you might see it as an advantage, it's not always so.

I actually noticed a few times now on the PP that Eichel has a tendency to just kind of throw the puck back to the blueline assuming Dahlin is where he thinks he should be instead of looking to see where he is and it's caused Dahlin issues. I think Eichel often forgets that they don't have two guys back there on the PP and Dahlin has to cover the whole thing.

That’s cool, you going to the Kings’ game as well?
- PrinceChill

Yes I usually go to all the games

Yes I usually go to all the games
- gerbe75pts

Crutches or a wheelchair? Be careful around the stairways. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iNCuCo-AWwE

That's 5v5.

Here's a good article on why quality of competiition isn't really a thing::
https://www.vancourier.co...xperts-anymore-1.23414544
- matty12345

If quality of competition didn’t matter, all teams would end up close to .500 at the end of the season. Of course quality of competition matters. If it doesn’t, all teams are equal and would garner equal results if you take away luck.

So why do they even play games? To see which team is luckier?

Why don’t we just role out the Amerks. I mean the other teams wouldn’t benefit from quality of competition would they?

This is my problem with these advanced stats. They don’t provide for context. When your defensive zone face offs is higher than your offensive zone face offs you are going to get scored on more, common sense. When your team struggles to hold possession you are going to get scored on more. Where is that reflected in 5v5 scoring against? Where is goaltending talent considered? Where does fatigue figure in when you average so many more minutes?

I don’t now, nor have I ever claimed that Risto is a #1 defenseman. He is an well rounded offensive defenseman who hits and plays tough. He has had to play in a top role because of the teams lack of defense talent for his entire career. And has done a good job all things considered. Is he the best at breakout passes? No. Does he make mistakes like all defensemen do? Yes.

When O’Reilly was on this team he was scored upon more than we scored with him on the ice. When he goes to a better team last year all the sudden that changed. These stats are an indication of how the team is playing and that’s not all on one player.

I am just happy that the coaching staff and management realize the value of Ristolainen. Every coaching staff has identified him as the best player to play the top role on this team. But because he is put into that role, fans want to use that to criticize him as not being good. But for his whole career the coaching staffs have decided that he is better than anyone else we have had to do it.

I would much rather trade Montour for scoring depth than trade Ristolainen.

If quality of competition didn’t matter, all teams would end up close to .500 at the end of the season. Of course quality of competition matters. If it doesn’t, all teams are equal and would garner equal results if you take away luck.

So why do they even play games? To see which team is luckier?

Why don’t we just role out the Amerks. I mean the other teams wouldn’t benefit from quality of competition would they?

This is my problem with these advanced stats. They don’t provide for context. When your defensive zone face offs is higher than your offensive zone face offs you are going to get scored on more, common sense. When your team struggles to hold possession you are going to get scored on more. Where is that reflected in 5v5 scoring against? Where is goaltending talent considered? Where does fatigue figure in when you average so many more minutes?

I don’t now, nor have I ever claimed that Risto is a #1 defenseman. He is an well rounded offensive defenseman who hits and plays tough. He has had to play in a top role because of the teams lack of defense talent for his entire career. And has done a good job all things considered. Is he the best at breakout passes? No. Does he make mistakes like all defensemen do? Yes.

When O’Reilly was on this team he was scored upon more than we scored with him on the ice. When he goes to a better team last year all the sudden that changed. These stats are an indication of how the team is playing and that’s not all on one player.

I am just happy that the coaching staff and management realize the value of Ristolainen. Every coaching staff has identified him as the best player to play the top role on this team. But because he is put into that role, fans want to use that to criticize him as not being good. But for his whole career the coaching staffs have decided that he is better than anyone else we have had to do it.

I would much rather trade Montour for scoring depth than trade Ristolainen.
- Beethoven

This is a good post...

Is Risto a Top pair D-man, if you go by the numbers then no, but so much more goes into it. Do we not account for the horrible teams he has played on, the competition he plays against, the minutes he eats up. He is only 24yrs old, and there has been a lot pressure put on his shoulders at a young age. He brings to the table things that nobody on D does, just the other night in Dallas, after he dropped Benn, Risto was in his head, from the face wash to the slashes, Risto has done that to a lot of good players the last 5yrs. I like Risto, he has his downfalls, but he brings things on the ice nobody else back there can.

If quality of competition didn’t matter, all teams would end up close to .500 at the end of the season. Of course quality of competition matters. If it doesn’t, all teams are equal and would garner equal results if you take away luck.

So why do they even play games? To see which team is luckier?

Why don’t we just role out the Amerks. I mean the other teams wouldn’t benefit from quality of competition would they?

This is my problem with these advanced stats. They don’t provide for context. When your defensive zone face offs is higher than your offensive zone face offs you are going to get scored on more, common sense. When your team struggles to hold possession you are going to get scored on more. Where is that reflected in 5v5 scoring against? Where is goaltending talent considered? Where does fatigue figure in when you average so many more minutes?

I don’t now, nor have I ever claimed that Risto is a #1 defenseman. He is an well rounded offensive defenseman who hits and plays tough. He has had to play in a top role because of the teams lack of defense talent for his entire career. And has done a good job all things considered. Is he the best at breakout passes? No. Does he make mistakes like all defensemen do? Yes.

When O’Reilly was on this team he was scored upon more than we scored with him on the ice. When he goes to a better team last year all the sudden that changed. These stats are an indication of how the team is playing and that’s not all on one player.

I am just happy that the coaching staff and management realize the value of Ristolainen. Every coaching staff has identified him as the best player to play the top role on this team. But because he is put into that role, fans want to use that to criticize him as not being good. But for his whole career the coaching staffs have decided that he is better than anyone else we have had to do it.

I would much rather trade Montour for scoring depth than trade Ristolainen.
- Beethoven

You didn't read the article did you?

Here is a recap:

QoC matters to teams in terms of wins and losses. The problem is it doesn't matter very much for individual players. On average, all players play more against top lines than fourth lines, because fourth lines don't play much. A top pair D or first line F plays more against the best competiition, but the difference is small, only a few minutes a night.

What's more, Quality of Teammates is shown to be much more influential on stats that QoC. They article explains why. That means that instead of being hurt by playing against Matthew Barzal all night, Risto is actually helped more by the fact that he played with Eichel all night.

If that's still too much info for you: QoC has a smaller effect on player performance than commonly believed, and is more than cancelled out by the benefits of playing with better teammates, meaning if anything its a net benefit.

Sorry Beethoven, was writing my post and didn't see yours at the time. Good post

Is Risto a Top pair D-man, if you go by the numbers then no, but so much more goes into it. Do we not account for the horrible teams he has played on, the competition he plays against, the minutes he eats up. He is only 24yrs old, and there has been a lot pressure put on his shoulders at a young age. He brings to the table things that nobody on D does, just the other night in Dallas, after he dropped Benn, Risto was in his head, from the face wash to the slashes, Risto has done that to a lot of good players the last 5yrs. I like Risto, he has his downfalls, but he brings things on the ice nobody else back there can.
- Buff36

Exactly! There’s so much more value that he adds to the team than stats can account for.

Sorry Beethoven, was writing my post and didn't see yours at the time. Good post
- Buff36

❤️

I am somewhat worried Fitz will have one of his ridiculous 400 yard games this sunday.

I know our defense is elite, but still.
- jcragcrumple

I thought this post was going in a completely different direction.

❤️
- Beethoven

💜💜💜💜

I thought this post was going in a completely different direction.
- Chris16

We all did. It's only natural.

You didn't read the article did you?

Here is a recap:

QoC matters to teams in terms of wins and losses. The problem is it doesn't matter very much for individual players. On average, all players play more against top lines than fourth lines, because fourth lines don't play much. A top pair D or first line F plays more against the best competiition, but the difference is small, only a few minutes a night.

What's more, Quality of Teammates is shown to be much more influential on stats that QoC. They article explains why. That means that instead of being hurt by playing against Matthew Barzal all night, Risto is actually helped more by the fact that he played with Eichel all night.

If that's still too much info for you: QoC has a smaller effect on player performance than commonly believed, and is more than cancelled out by the benefits of playing with better teammates, meaning if anything its a net benefit.
- matty12345

No I read it. And it wasn’t “too much for me” to comprehend. I am wondering why you aren’t complaining about Risto’s linemates considering the article makes the case that linemates are more important to statistical success than competition.

Honestly once the author made the case that “most” advanced stats guys think quality of competition doesn’t play into it as much as quality of linemates, I realized that he wasn’t objective and set out to prove a point. The idea that quality of competition doesn’t matter, which was never really said, what it said was that it was much less important than quality of linemates, is absurd.

Take Crosby and Malkin off The Pens, do they still win those cups? Take Toews and Kane off Chicago, do they win cups? Quality of competition is what sports are all about. Jordan didn’t win 6 championships because he was lucky, he won because his team was better than the competition. Take away luck and quality of competition is the only thing that matters.

Is Risto a Top pair D-man, if you go by the numbers then no, but so much more goes into it. Do we not account for the horrible teams he has played on, the competition he plays against, the minutes he eats up. He is only 24yrs old, and there has been a lot pressure put on his shoulders at a young age. He brings to the table things that nobody on D does, just the other night in Dallas, after he dropped Benn, Risto was in his head, from the face wash to the slashes, Risto has done that to a lot of good players the last 5yrs. I like Risto, he has his downfalls, but he brings things on the ice nobody else back there can.
- Buff36

I don't think a reasonable conversation can be had, because I'm using facts and you aren't. But here goes:

"Is Risto a Top pair D-man, if you go by the numbers then no, but so much more goes into it." Agreed.

"Do we not account for the horrible teams he has played on," That's literally what I did when I pointed out the team without him on the ice scored more than they gave up last year, and with him were minus 35.

"the competition he plays against," Again, proven to be negligible, You can disagree, but I'll take my untrained eyes plus the word of statiticians who analyzed thousands of NHL games over your untrained eyes alone.

" the minutes he eats up." again corrected for in GF/60 and GA/60

"He is only 24yrs old" Eichel is younger, one of the 50 best players in the NHL, and regularly faces criticism.

"and there has been a lot pressure put on his shoulders at a young age" see the beating Reinhart took his first two years here from expectations.

"He brings to the table things that nobody on D does, just the other night in Dallas, after he dropped Benn, Risto was in his head, from the face wash to the slashes, Risto has done that to a lot of good players the last 5yrs." Benn didn't score the whole game, no one did for Dallas. Can't I say Dahlin was in Radulov's head? It's all made up For every time a big hit gets thrown and a star is 'taken out of the game', a big hit gets thrown that 'wakes the star up' and he scores.

"I like Risto" The crux of the argument. I like him too. I'd love to see him figure things out. He's also been bad this year, as bad as anyone can look in a 6 game point streak. It's concerning.

No I read it. And it wasn’t “too much for me” to comprehend. I am wondering why you aren’t complaining about Risto’s linemates considering the article makes the case that linemates are more important to statistical success than competition.

Honestly once the author made the case that “most” advanced stats guys think quality of competition doesn’t play into it as much as quality of linemates, I realized that he wasn’t objective and set out to prove a point. The idea that quality of competition doesn’t matter, which was never really said, what it said was that it was much less important than quality of linemates, is absurd.

Take Crosby and Malkin off The Pens, do they still win those cups? Take Toews and Kane off Chicago, do they win cups? Quality of competition is what sports are all about. Jordan didn’t win 6 championships because he was lucky, he won because his team was better than the competition. Take away luck and quality of competition is the only thing that matters.
- Beethoven

Good lord man. No one is saying good players don't matter.

What they are saying is that if Risto plays the pens, he plays a bit more against Crosby than Scandella does, but not as much as you think he does. And he plays WITH Eichel quite a bit more than Scandella does. So actually, Scandella has it worse.

The article never mentions luck once.

Risto is a good d-man. I think we would definitely miss his physicality but I think Montour can bring everything else that Risto brings to the table with more speed and better zone exits. That’s why I think Risto should be packaged to bring in a top 6 forward. I don’t blame Botts for asking for a really good return, and if he holds on to him based on the lack of offers then so be it. However with Montour, Miller, Joker, and Borgen we can afford to move Risto.

Find a way to acquire Connor Garland.

If it takes Risto, they have to add 2 seconds.

Risto is a good d-man. I think we would definitely miss his physicality but I think Montour can bring everything else that Risto brings to the table with more speed and better zone exits. That’s why I think Risto should be packaged to bring in a top 6 forward. I don’t blame Botts for asking for a really good return, and if he holds on to him based on the lack of offers then so be it. However with Montour, Miller, Joker, and Borgen we can afford to move Risto.
- Swedish_Jesus

Dahlin, Montour, Miller, and Joker are all Botts guys moving forward. He resigned McCabe for two years.

He has one spot left to give to Scandella, Risto, or Pilut. Pilut they can bury in Rochester. So, just bench Scandella or trade him for a 6th round pick, or get possibly a decent asset for Risto? That's the question.

I don't think a reasonable conversation can be had, because I'm using facts and you aren't. But here goes:

"Is Risto a Top pair D-man, if you go by the numbers then no, but so much more goes into it." Agreed.

"Do we not account for the horrible teams he has played on," That's literally what I did when I pointed out the team without him on the ice scored more than they gave up last year, and with him were minus 35.

"the competition he plays against," Again, proven to be negligible, You can disagree, but I'll take my untrained eyes plus the word of statiticians who analyzed thousands of NHL games over your untrained eyes alone.

" the minutes he eats up." again corrected for in GF/60 and GA/60

"He is only 24yrs old" Eichel is younger, one of the 50 best players in the NHL, and regularly faces criticism.

"and there has been a lot pressure put on his shoulders at a young age" see the beating Reinhart took his first two years here from expectations.

"He brings to the table things that nobody on D does, just the other night in Dallas, after he dropped Benn, Risto was in his head, from the face wash to the slashes, Risto has done that to a lot of good players the last 5yrs." Benn didn't score the whole game, no one did for Dallas. Can't I say Dahlin was in Radulov's head? It's all made up For every time a big hit gets thrown and a star is 'taken out of the game', a big hit gets thrown that 'wakes the star up' and he scores.

"I like Risto" The crux of the argument. I like him too. I'd love to see him figure things out. He's also been bad this year, as bad as anyone can look in a 6 game point streak. It's concerning.
- matty12345

Ok, wasn't really going of your post to tell you the truth, don't really care about statistics, they can tell you some thing's, but not the whole story.