Did anyone else see Josh Allen wore a Sabres jersey to his post-game press conference?
- buffalofan19

He wore a custom 50th to the game, so yeah

So Edmonton rolls 2 lines lol?
- hubie

Neal McDavid and Draisaitl have 20 goals combined. The rest of their forwards have 5 combined.

Sabres are being outshot, giving up more scoring chances than they are getting, and giving up more High danger chances than they are getting. That's while getting 7 more powerplays than their opponents. So uhh, why are they good?

5th in the league in shooting percentage. Fifth in the league in save percentage. Both in my opinion are completely unsustainable.

The similarities between this years 9 game start and last years 10 game streak are startling.

Sabres are being outshot, giving up more scoring chances than they are getting, and giving up more High danger chances than they are getting. That's while getting 7 more powerplays than their opponents. So uhh, why are they good?

5th in the league in shooting percentage. Fifth in the league in save percentage. Both in my opinion are completely unsustainable.

The similarities between this years 9 game start and last years 10 game streak are startling.
- matty12345

Total shots or shots pg average? We have 2/3 more games played than a few if total

Neal McDavid and Draisaitl have 20 goals combined. The rest of their forwards have 5 combined.
- adambuffalo

never would guess based on their record.
kinda crazy how similar their stat lines are similar

Total shots or shots pg average? We have 2/3 more games played than a few if total
- hubie

Team shots taken vs given up...so it is total shots but the game count is obviously the same. Basically, the team is taking 31.1 shots and giving up 33.1. So not a big deal, but that's the numbers of an average team, not a 7-1-1 team.

Similarly, scoring chances are about 30.8 for per game to 35.2 given up.

High danger chances at 12.4 and 13.2.

Those numbers fit perfectly for a ~9th to 10th place team, which is where pretty much everyone had them. But, the good news is they're banking points, so maybe they end up being a lucky team that gets 7th or 8th.

Basically, we have been winning because our opponents are scoring on 4.8% of their high danger chances, which is absurdly low (second lowest in the league). Combination of Hutton being beyond fantastic, and other teams just being freakishly unlucky against us.

Team shots taken vs given up...so it is total shots but the game count is obviously the same. Basically, the team is taking 31.1 shots and giving up 33.1. So not a big deal, but that's the numbers of an average team, not a 7-1-1 team.

Similarly, scoring chances are about 30.8 for per game to 35.2 given up.

High danger chances at 12.4 and 13.2.

Those numbers fit perfectly for a ~9th to 10th place team, which is where pretty much everyone had them. But, the good news is they're banking points, so maybe they end up being a lucky team that gets 7th or 8th.
- matty12345

ahhh, then i think your spot on with the last thing you wrote in op.

I hope its wrong but yes, thats a hard thing to carry over a long season.

Team shots taken vs given up...so it is total shots but the game count is obviously the same. Basically, the team is taking 31.1 shots and giving up 33.1. So not a big deal, but that's the numbers of an average team, not a 7-1-1 team.

Similarly, scoring chances are about 30.8 for per game to 35.2 given up.

High danger chances at 12.4 and 13.2.

Those numbers fit perfectly for a ~9th to 10th place team, which is where pretty much everyone had them. But, the good news is they're banking points, so maybe they end up being a lucky team that gets 7th or 8th.
- matty12345

If I had to guess, the numbers are probably significantly worse in the 3rd when the Sabres have had the lead. That skews it

Sabres are being outshot, giving up more scoring chances than they are getting, and giving up more High danger chances than they are getting. That's while getting 7 more powerplays than their opponents. So uhh, why are they good?

5th in the league in shooting percentage. Fifth in the league in save percentage. Both in my opinion are completely unsustainable.

The similarities between this years 9 game start and last years 10 game streak are startling.
- matty12345

Hardly.

CF%: 18/19 — 47.17% (7th worst in the NHL during the streak) | 19/20 — 53.49% (7th best in the NHL)
*xGF%: 18/19 — 44.09% (5th worst in the NHL during the streak) | 19/20 — 53.22% (7th best in the NHL)
GF/60: 18/19 — 2.47 | 19/20 — 2.83
GA/60: 18/19 — 2.18 | 19/20 — 1.22

If we were to go .500 for the rest of the season we are at 88 points. Crazy how much a good start makes a difference.

Here's the facts. The Sabres got caved in playing Columbus. They were lucky to get a point.

They also got caved in playing LA, probably more-so because of the score and they sat back.

Their record is 7-1-1. They're outscoring and mostly outshooting opponents. They're also controlling the puck the majority of the game.

The eye tests show this, and the analytics above prove this.

I know you love the half empty approach, but this right here is the fact approach.

They're a significantly better team to start the year than they were during the 10.

Hardly.

CF%: 18/19 — 47.17% (7th worst in the NHL during the streak) | 19/20 — 53.49% (7th best in the NHL)
*xGF%: 18/19 — 44.09% (5th worst in the NHL during the streak) | 19/20 — 53.22% (7th best in the NHL)
GF/60: 18/19 — 2.47 | 19/20 — 2.83
GA/60: 18/19 — 2.18 | 19/20 — 1.22
- TheSabresTaco

this is why stats can be so deceiving in so many ways. The advanced stats in general last year pointed to the fact that it was not sustainable. Whereas this year they seem to be saying otherwise. Yet the other stats posted show that it's not different than last year.

Personally, the eye test tells me it's different this year. But here's the thing, it's an 82 game season. And honestly, if anyone has delusions that they'll continue at this pace all season is crazy. To only lose out on 3 points of every 18 possible would be crazy and is a pace no team can really sustain. Essentially they're getting 1.66 points a game in the standings. That would equate to about 136 for the season, which is 8 points more than Tampa had last season at the top of the league.

Moral of the story, there will be a regression. How much is yet to be seen.

If I had to guess, the numbers are probably significantly worse in the 3rd when the Sabres have had the lead. That skews it
- jcragcrumple

Correct sir, they're +18 in shots in the 1st, +3 in the second, -41 in the third.

Although, the bad thirds cost us leads in Montreal and Florida, so I think it's worth looking at.

this is why stats can be so deceiving in so many ways. The advanced stats in general last year pointed to the fact that it was not sustainable. Whereas this year they seem to be saying otherwise. Yet the other stats posted show that it's not different than last year.

Personally, the eye test tells me it's different this year. But here's the thing, it's an 82 game season. And honestly, if anyone has delusions that they'll continue at this pace all season is crazy. To only lose out on 3 points of every 18 possible would be crazy and is a pace no team can really sustain. Essentially they're getting 1.66 points a game in the standings. That would equate to about 136 for the season, which is 8 points more than Tampa had last season at the top of the league.

Moral of the story, there will be a regression. How much is yet to be seen.
- HonkFortheGoose

If they got 15 points every 9 games, they would be at 135 points, which would run away with the President's trophy. I'm interested to see them play against Boston, Tampa, and Toronto. Tread water against those teams, and I think they will be okay.

Is it still negative

Is it still negative
- gerbe75pts

Toxic.

Hardly.

CF%: 18/19 — 47.17% (7th worst in the NHL during the streak) | 19/20 — 53.49% (7th best in the NHL)
*xGF%: 18/19 — 44.09% (5th worst in the NHL during the streak) | 19/20 — 53.22% (7th best in the NHL)
GF/60: 18/19 — 2.47 | 19/20 — 2.83
GA/60: 18/19 — 2.18 | 19/20 — 1.22
- TheSabresTaco

Wait where are these from? The sabres are 21st in CF% at 48.1 where I'm looking?

If they got 15 points every 9 games, they would be at 135 points, which would run away with the President's trophy. I'm interested to see them play against Boston, Tampa, and Toronto. Tread water against those teams, and I think they will be okay.
- buffalofan19

Yup. The record for most points in a season since 1949-50 is 132. So 135 would break the record. While I've enjoyed what this team has done this year, I can with 100% certainty say that it's not that caliber of team, and that's perfectly ok. They don't need to be. I just need them to be able to hang in there and get points against the teams that are the "powerhouses" of the league for the most part. I also need them to not come out and lay an egg against the teams that have looked bad so far. They've had issues with that in the past too.

Here's the facts. The Sabres got caved in playing Columbus. They were lucky to get a point.

They also got caved in playing LA, probably more-so because of the score and they sat back.

Their record is 7-1-1. They're outscoring and mostly outshooting opponents. They're also controlling the puck the majority of the game.

The eye tests show this, and the analytics above prove this.

I know you love the half empty approach, but this right here is the fact approach.

They're a significantly better team to start the year than they were during the 10.
- TheSabresTaco

You stated a bunch of personal opinions and then call that the fact approach, while ignoring the stats I posted?

The team is being outshot. That's all I said. Opponents are scoring on a ludicrous 4.8% of their high danger scoring chances. That's pure dumb luck, combined with some outrageous saves from Hutton, but still mostly dumb luck. We actually have a higher save percentage on high danger scoring chances than overall scoring chances, which is funny.

Correct sir, they're +18 in shots in the 1st, +3 in the second, -41 in the third.

Although, the bad thirds cost us leads in Montreal and Florida, so I think it's worth looking at.
- matty12345

Very much so, but we could see those numbers "improve" in the 3rd period because they're losing through 2 and pressing in the 3rd, which wouldn't be an improvement anywhere but on paper

Wait where are these from? The sabres are 21st in CF% at 48.1 where I'm looking?
- matty12345

I would also say one should consider that, when looking at the stats, our #1 line hasn't got things going yet, Once they return to form the stats will "appear" better. Stats will say teams would much prefer having the LOG line than Eichel's line, think about that for a second. I give you four reasons why 19/20 feels different than 18/19: JOHO, Joker, Miller and Ralph. Montour will eventually be #5 and whomever we get in return in our trade of a dman could be #6.

Johansson

That is all.

This guy is enormous for the Sabres.
- jcragcrumple

I gotta admit that i was not a fan of him at 2C
Was just too burned by our other attempts to make 3rd line wingers into centers
(Re: Ville Leino, Patrick Berglund)

I guess maybe the difference is that Johansson is actually a good player,
and the other 2 just weren’t

ullmark sucks
sobotka sucks
risto sucks

blah blah blah


the bigger issue IMO is our first line is doing next to nothing 5 on 5 lately
but the secondary scoring is carrying the team


all good things

it's fun to watch and if we keep this steak going for another 5 games, we will only need to go .500 for the rest of the season to make the playoffs

and I do not see this team getting long losing streaks as long as they stick to the system
- homiedclown

I like this version of Homie much better than the
LateJune-EarlyJuly version

I would also say one should consider that, when looking at the stats, our #1 line hasn't got things going yet, Once they return to form the stats will "appear" better. Stats will say teams would much prefer having the LOG line than Eichel's line, think about that for a second. I give you four reasons why 19/20 feels different than 18/19: JOHO, Joker, Miller and Ralph. Montour will eventually be #5 and whomever we get in return in our trade of a dman could be #6.
- turbo044

The #1 center has 10 points in 9 games. Reinhart has 7 in 9. Olofsson has 8 in 9. I realize that many of these are powerplay points, but I'm not sure how much more "get going" they can do.

The #1 center has 10 points in 9 games. Reinhart has 7 in 9. Olofsson has 8 in 9. I realize that many of these are powerplay points, but I'm not sure how much more "get going" they can do.
- buffalofan19

I get that, talking 5 on 5