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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Buffalo beats San Jose 4-3 in OT plus your five-game Sabres recap
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adambuffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Location: United States, NY
Joined: 01.30.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:10 AM ET
He's given up more goals and scoring chances per 60 than any other defenseman.
- matty12345

He also has a higher GF/60 even strength, if that matters.
Beethoven
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.03.2019

Oct 24 @ 1:15 AM ET
That article was a random Google search result I linked you to try to show you that this strength of competition argument isn't a thing. I'm not basing my opinion on that article.

Look, brilliant people get paid to do analytics, and they think of all the shortcomings of stats and ways to account for them or if they can't be. I'm not saying I'm as brilliant as those people, but I'm smart enough to accept their work. I don't walk into a science class and argue quantum physics either. Someone smart does the work, and all I have to do is learn it.

So when analysts tell me, hey +/- isn't a great indicator of skill use a different stat, I just do it. I don't need to fight the math community. If they tell me strength of competition is more than cancelled out by strength of teammates, I just listen.

- matty12345

So then why aren’t you complaining about Risto’s teammates? If that’s the largest determining factor of a players success, why are you putting it all on Risto and not the other players on the ice?

See you’re reasoning isn’t even sound. If it were you wouldn’t be constantly hating on Risto, you would say that his teammates are negatively affecting his numbers and play.

This isn’t about you following the clues that you claim to be. It’s about you singling our Risto as being the problem and looking for things to validate your contention.

I don’t even think you guys realize you’re doing it. I think it’s just in your brains that Risto is bad, and therefore plays he makes that other people see as fine you see as bad. You won’t look for stats that defend his numbers, you’ll look for stats that are in accordance to your preconceived notion that he is terrible.

matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:18 AM ET
While I'm not saying Risto is a number one. Mark Giordano didn't breakout until he was 30, and won a Norris at 35. Burns was 27, and his string of real big seasons started at 30.

Edit: Chara was 26 before his first Norris finalist season

- Wetbandit1

Giordano had played less than 20 games at 24. That year as a 23-24 year old defenseman he was great in a shortened 48 game campaign.

Brett Burns was an all star and received Norris votes at 22.

Chara was a bit late and played a third of a season as a 20 year old, but still managed to be an all star at 24, a Norris vote getter at 25, and won the whole Norris in his sixth year.

Risto is on year 8.
Beethoven
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.03.2019

Oct 24 @ 1:20 AM ET
Sorry to deviate from the conversation, but this headline made me crack up:


“A Congresswoman addressed Mark Zuckerberg's dumb haircut mid-hearing”
Beethoven
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.03.2019

Oct 24 @ 1:22 AM ET
It’s late for me, I would love to stay and argue all night. But I have to work in the morning. Goodnight
adambuffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Location: United States, NY
Joined: 01.30.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:24 AM ET
A couple of dmen who have been on the ice for more goals against than Risto:

Giordano
Rielly
Shea Weber
Harmonic
Burns
Karlsson
Pietrangelo

In total there are 18 defensemen that have been on the ice for more goals against than Risto.
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:26 AM ET
So then why aren’t you complaining about Risto’s teammates? If that’s the largest determining factor of a players success, why are you putting it all on Risto and not the other players on the ice?

See you’re reasoning isn’t even sound. If it were you wouldn’t be constantly hating on Risto, you would say that his teammates are negatively affecting his numbers and play.

This isn’t about you following the clues that you claim to be. It’s about you singling our Risto as being the problem and looking for things to validate your contention.

I don’t even think you guys realize you’re doing it. I think it’s just in your brains that Risto is bad, and therefore plays he makes that other people see as fine you see as bad. You won’t look for stats that defend his numbers, you’ll look for stats that are in accordance to your preconceived notion that he is terrible.

- Beethoven

No, the math says that Risto has it a bit tougher playing against top lines. He also has it a bit easier because he plays mostly with our top line, who have the puck a lot and control a lot of play. In a sense, the two stats influencers largely wash out. For Everytime Crosby has a dangerous shift in the sabres end while Risto is out there, Eichel has a dangerous shift in the Pittsburgh end that cancels it out.

If Risto was dropped down to play against second lines, in turn he would play more with our second third and fourth lines, who theoretically aren't as good, and he would be hurt by that.

That's all man. There is no twisting here. Its just understanding how unaccounted factors influence stats. In this case, we can't directly account for it, but we can measure that it doesn't have much net impact on the stats when combined with strength of teammates.

I'm not making this up to be mean to your favourite hockey player. This is just literally math. It's impersonal. It's the standard we gotta use for every player.
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:38 AM ET
It’s late for me, I would love to stay and argue all night. But I have to work in the morning. Goodnight
- Beethoven

Me too. Good conversation. Have a good night!
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Hail Satan
Joined: 10.07.2010

Oct 24 @ 1:43 AM ET
Giordano had played less than 20 games at 24. That year as a 23-24 year old defenseman he was great in a shortened 48 game campaign.

Brett Burns was an all star and received Norris votes at 22.

Chara was a bit late and played a third of a season as a 20 year old, but still managed to be an all star at 24, a Norris vote getter at 25, and won the whole Norris in his sixth year.

Risto is on year 8.

- matty12345


Yeah, nice try, but age is much more of a factor than games played, it's not like those guys weren't playing hockey.

That was the only season the Wild went to the playoffs when Burns was there and he got votes, all the other years when they sucked, he didn't. Hmm...
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:49 AM ET
HOME OWNERS = OWN AND LIVE IN A HOME

You literally are beating on the same drum as me.

I want people to OWN and LIVE IN the houses they OWN in BUFFALO, not renovate old buildings that are gorgeous and rent them out to suburban jack-offs who want a vibrant bar-scene.

- BeadyEyedDouche


Ok, gotcha
I didn’t back read to see the whole convo

However...
What’s the difference to u between ppl renting and owning?
It’s still showing that ppl are wanting to stay in the City

Also,
Don’t you think all these new renters that are living in the city will end up (eventually) being home owners in the city?
Of course not all
But I’d bet it’s a good percentage
First it happened in the Elmwood village
Then ppl started buying in the Hertel area
And now younger ppl are buying on the West Side
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:51 AM ET
I'm talking about the city population, yes, not the urban or metro, but you're right, since 2010, population has more or less plateaued and seems to be about a 1% loss - but still not even close to a revitalization.

And I'm well aware of the marketing of Buffalo to downstate - It is and has been being pitched as a cheap, laid-back alternative to NYC in the 20-30 groups.

They're trying to keep college grads around but they don't tend to stay. I do however know quite a few people from central New York, downstate, Vermont... It is becoming an appealing destination for young adults from the Northeast region who have no families but have the money to relocate, find a job and commit to becoming a "permanent" resident.

But you're kidding yourself if you think Buffalo will ever rival a city like, Pittsburgh, for instance. Pittsburgh is literally what Buffalo would look like if it survived the death of the steel industry - Successful sports and business ventures, corporations setting up shop, regional migration is huge in PGH...

And again, it doesn't need to. Buffalo does need to find an identity, though, because it can't seem to focus on one and I don't think adding 6 new breweries or distilleries every frigging year is the way to do it.

- BeadyEyedDouche


Why are u so upset with having a great food & drink scene here??
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:52 AM ET


I always preferred Dante's Peak

- jcragcrumple


Tommy lee jones > Pierce Brosnan
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:54 AM ET
On ice 5 on 5 goals against

Ristolainen and McCabe have been on the ice for 8 goals against

Not any other D man has been on for more than 3

- sbroads24


Can u list the stats for forwards as well?
adambuffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Location: United States, NY
Joined: 01.30.2007

Oct 24 @ 1:54 AM ET
Giordano had played less than 20 games at 24. That year as a 23-24 year old defenseman he was great in a shortened 48 game campaign.

Brett Burns was an all star and received Norris votes at 22.

Chara was a bit late and played a third of a season as a 20 year old, but still managed to be an all star at 24, a Norris vote getter at 25, and won the whole Norris in his sixth year.

Risto is on year 8.

- matty12345

Giordano was so great in his first full season at 23/24 years old that he got voted into his first Allstar Game....9 years later.

Burns got votes, but didn't make the Allstar team until the age 25, his 7th year in the league.

Chara won the Norris in his 11th year at age 31 and was actually 26 in his 7th season when he first made the Allstar game.

Lastly, this is Risto's 7th year, not 8th.
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Oct 24 @ 2:02 AM ET
That's not hard for me. I live 2 miles from work.

So I put 20 miles a week on my car going to/from work on a weekly basis.

- HonkFortheGoose



I’m lucky if I put 25 miles per week on my Jeep.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Oct 24 @ 2:03 AM ET
Yet in just 42 less minutes has been on for 5 less goals than the great 55
- sbroads24


Without looking...
I’ll bet that 55 get way more defensive zone time
whereas 26 is getting mostly offensive zone starts

Is that accurate, or not?

U seem to be leaving out how these players are used in that icetime they get
And that obviously should have a great affect
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Oct 24 @ 2:06 AM ET
You missed the whole point. You feel free to criticize former coaches and GM's, and you can criticize the coaches of other teams.

So why can't Krueger's decisions be questioned? Because every time someone complains about his ice time, you answer with 'are you smarter than the coach?'

- matty12345


Why are you so focused on this?
We are 8-1-1 dude
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Oct 24 @ 2:13 AM ET
I’m lucky if I put 25 miles per week on my Jeep.
- dadeadhead


I finally got out to try the wings at your place last weekend

Outstanding
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Oct 24 @ 6:09 AM ET
No, I think Krueger wants the respect of his players first and foremost so he’s going to lean on the respected players in the room and ease the young players into bigger roles over time.
- sbroads24

Getting respect from your players is fine, but players don't pay his salary, and winning is everything. We are of to the start we are because of the players buying into his system, and doing the jobs that they are given. Ridiculous to think he is putting Risto out there just to get his respect.
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Oct 24 @ 6:48 AM ET
I finally got out to try the wings at your place last weekend

Outstanding

- jdfitz77



Sabretooth9
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.24.2019

Oct 24 @ 7:34 AM ET
He stated in a post game after benching Dahlin in the third period that he was going to put the best players out there to give us the best chance to win the game.

So either he is lying, or he believes playing Risto over Dahlin gives them a better chance to win the games.

There’s no room for feelings, he said so himself, he is trying to win games.

- Beethoven


Dahlin has been a defensive liability for a majority of the season. So yes. Benching dahlin when protecting a lead and playing Risto is a better idea.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Oct 24 @ 8:09 AM ET
And I’ll tell you another thing. When Montour comes back, he isn’t going to take over that role either. Because he’s not better.
- Beethoven


I disagree.
Montour, at the very least is a bit better defensively...still not good, but a bit better.
At Transition is the biggest difference, and it isn't close by any stretch by the disillusioned...Risto absolutely sucks at it. He has a low Hockey IQ and panics rather than making the smart play to exit the Dzone.
Offensively equal.
Risto is move physical, gets fans excited with hits CD every 10 games or so.

Tilt goes to Montour.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Oct 24 @ 8:14 AM ET
It’s just so weird to me.

Jokiharju legit never gets scored on, makes about as an impressive plays as you can hope for with passes to send guys in on a breakaway or his zone entry to set up Johansson, and people rarely talk about it here.

Ristolainen takes a shot that hits a goalie and Eichel makes a great play on, while also being on the ice for 2/3 goals against (shocker) and he was “great”?

It’s just absurd

- sbroads24


I regret backreading, but I think I can help both sides here.

We know what Risto is, but please observe this chart as I point out an observation, contextually.



We've placed Joker and Scandella in positions to succeed. Battling against average competition. Dahlin and Miller have primarily faced bottom 6 competition and have also managed to keep the puck out of the net, because they are able to clear the puck out and limit the high danger chances of the opposition.

Risto and McCabe are responsible for the opposition's best. They typically start in the DZ, and the fact of the matter is, these two, at least combined and probably individually, are incapable of sustained success in this role. Therefore, it's an expectation that these two will continue to see the brunt of the minus in +/-. "Talented" is a relative term, but it's been proven year after year that both of these players are incapable of defeating the competition they're put up against.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Oct 24 @ 8:16 AM ET
Fans in the red wings thread are ready to trade Athanasiou.

dO SoMEtHiNG, JB
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Oct 24 @ 8:24 AM ET
I'm talking about the city population, yes, not the urban or metro, but you're right, since 2010, population has more or less plateaued and seems to be about a 1% loss - but still not even close to a revitalization.

And I'm well aware of the marketing of Buffalo to downstate - It is and has been being pitched as a cheap, laid-back alternative to NYC in the 20-30 groups.

They're trying to keep college grads around but they don't tend to stay. I do however know quite a few people from central New York, downstate, Vermont... It is becoming an appealing destination for young adults from the Northeast region who have no families but have the money to relocate, find a job and commit to becoming a "permanent" resident.

But you're kidding yourself if you think Buffalo will ever rival a city like, Pittsburgh, for instance. Pittsburgh is literally what Buffalo would look like if it survived the death of the steel industry - Successful sports and business ventures, corporations setting up shop, regional migration is huge in PGH...

And again, it doesn't need to. Buffalo does need to find an identity, though, because it can't seem to focus on one and I don't think adding 6 new breweries or distilleries every frigging year is the way to do it.

- BeadyEyedDouche



And then there's this article which suggests we're suffering economically because we aren't healthy.

https://buffalonews.com/2...ld-stunt-economic-growth/
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