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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Special. Teams. Matter.
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homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Nov 16 @ 4:38 AM ET
1 goal and 2 assists tonight. He made Risto look good last year while in the lineup.

He is one of our best 6 d-men right now and is in the minors.

- Pegullaville

Jean-Sebastien Dea
I will admit I know nothing about him, maybe he doesn't have the wheels

6 foot center
25 years old
played in pens system for a bit, 29 nhl games

this season and last season in the ahl

61 games, 3 different teams , must have been traded to devils mid season
24 goals, 56 points

a center with nearly a ppg at his age, should get a cup of coffee with the big club
#wedon'tneedlarsson,okposo,girgens,sobotkaanderodonthisroster
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Nov 16 @ 7:52 AM ET
Jean-Sebastien Dea
I will admit I know nothing about him, maybe he doesn't have the wheels

6 foot center
25 years old
played in pens system for a bit, 29 nhl games

this season and last season in the ahl

61 games, 3 different teams , must have been traded to devils mid season
24 goals, 56 points

a center with nearly a ppg at his age, should get a cup of coffee with the big club
#wedon'tneedlarsson,okposo,girgens,sobotkaanderodonthisroster

- homiedclown


I’m fine with this as well. Girgensons is beyond useless and needs to be upgraded.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Nov 16 @ 8:09 AM ET
Another anti-analytics blog that's just so uninformed.

No one says the Powerplay doesn't matter to a team. From a team perspective, a goal is a goal. Rather Powerplay goals are less important when looking at an individual player. If for example a player scores 20 goals, but 14 are on the powerplay, how much is he really generating? Because he took one of the prime spots for scoring goals, and someone else in his place might have scored 11-12, so really, he only improved you by a few goals. He scored, but you were going to score anyway a lot of those times with a different player, and maybe even more.

Now, if he scores all those goals 5v5, those are goals scored when your chances to score are a lot lower. They're 'extra' goals so to speak.

For example, if I take Olofsson off the Powerplay and put Mittelstadt on, who has more goals? Probably Mittelstadt. That doesn't mean Mittelstadt is better, because he probably isn't as effective on the powerplay.
The point is when evaluating a player to look at their usage. 5v5 always translate, pp goals dont as well.
Looking deeper into how goals are scored helps you build a team properly.

As for the actual stats: Sabres are 8th in Powerplay, so no, the Powerplay is not to blame for them being 18th. As for the 'advanced stats that don't tell the story', well:

24th in CF%
28th in SCF%
28th in xGF
23rd in xGA
25th in High Danger Chances
19th in Shooting

The only reason they are as high as they are is that they're 8th in PP and 6th in SV%. Literally everything else they suck at.

If you want to ignore stats be my guest. But don't go out of your way to blast analytics when they're bang on and you're out to lunch.

- matty12345


Alexander Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos say hi. I guess Eichel is easily replaceable on our PP too then we can just through Erod out there and we’ll still be 8th ?

All goals count the same, I’m not going to do demean someone for scoring on the PP, at the end of the day the puck still has to go in the net.

Olofsson needs to produce better 5v5 no question.

If Skinner were to score on the PP to help our struggling PP that would also be nice. We are not just paying him $9M to score 5v5 and contribute nowhere else.

As a team we struggle to score 5v5 due to lack of talent across the roster. What is frustrating is that we are a 2C away from upgrading 3 positions in our forward group as players would then fall into their respective roles.

Now I know it’s not just as simple to trade for a 2C cause nobody is just giving them away but I’m sure we could have upgraded somewhere in the top 6 by moving out Risto in the offseason.





IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 16 @ 8:14 AM ET
Another anti-analytics blog that's just so uninformed.

No one says the Powerplay doesn't matter to a team. From a team perspective, a goal is a goal. Rather Powerplay goals are less important when looking at an individual player. If for example a player scores 20 goals, but 14 are on the powerplay, how much is he really generating? Because he took one of the prime spots for scoring goals, and someone else in his place might have scored 11-12, so really, he only improved you by a few goals. He scored, but you were going to score anyway a lot of those times with a different player, and maybe even more.

Now, if he scores all those goals 5v5, those are goals scored when your chances to score are a lot lower. They're 'extra' goals so to speak.

For example, if I take Olofsson off the Powerplay and put Mittelstadt on, who has more goals? Probably Mittelstadt. That doesn't mean Mittelstadt is better, because he probably isn't as effective on the powerplay.
The point is when evaluating a player to look at their usage. 5v5 always translate, pp goals dont as well.
Looking deeper into how goals are scored helps you build a team properly.

As for the actual stats: Sabres are 8th in Powerplay, so no, the Powerplay is not to blame for them being 18th. As for the 'advanced stats that don't tell the story', well:

24th in CF%
28th in SCF%
28th in xGF
23rd in xGA
25th in High Danger Chances
19th in Shooting

The only reason they are as high as they are is that they're 8th in PP and 6th in SV%. Literally everything else they suck at.

If you want to ignore stats be my guest. But don't go out of your way to blast analytics when they're bang on and you're out to lunch.

- matty12345


To be more clear, what's your opinion on if goals scored in Feb, March and April count more than those in Oct, Nov, Dec.?
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Nov 16 @ 8:27 AM ET
Fever in the funkhouse now.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Nov 16 @ 8:37 AM ET
To be more clear, what's your opinion on if goals scored in Feb, March and April count more than those in Oct, Nov, Dec.?
- IonSabres


Everyone knew the powerplay was unsustainable. Its Been below average since the hot stare.
Everyone knew the forwards were not good enough, except this regime apparently.

one thing that has remained constant is this teams ability to score 5 on 5 outside of 2 guys.

You can go back to the start of the season and there was concern from many of us about just that.

There are 8 forwards on this roster that have a combined 10 goals. That is just not good enough.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Nov 16 @ 8:41 AM ET
Why does it matter when a player scores a goal, PP, PK 5v5 as long as they score and as long as your team scores more goals then the other team, which the Sabres are having trouble doing right now. Most players score in streaks. The Sabres have to many players that can't even get on streaks and will be lucky to score 5 to 10 goals. It is alright to have a few that are like that, but not half your team.
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Nov 16 @ 8:43 AM ET
If the Bills lose tomorrow, I just might get as drunk as a life long homeschooler at his first frat party.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 16 @ 8:46 AM ET
Botts is in a nice spot. He can blame the previous regime for any shortcomings.
And if the team finishes DFL? “We get a great draft pick.”
Finish 7th from bottom? “Deep draft, lots of good players to choose from.”
Finish just outside the playoffs? “Look at the amazing progress made this year!”
Squeak into the top half of the conference? “Check us out!”

He can’t lose. Everything is great.

- PrinceChill


I mean, why stop there?
They finished in 27th last season, but now have roughly 45 day head-start on their free-fall!!!
It will take everything they have, but they could dive right down to the bottom and be assured of a top 4 pick, probably top 3.

Everybody, start reading up on:
Quinton Byfield,
Lucas Raymond,
Alexander Holtz
Cole Perfetti
Yaroslav Askarov

Bott's is likely to trade his 1st though, not too many worthy Dmen in the top 10...especially of the RhD variety.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Nov 16 @ 8:49 AM ET
I mean, why stop there?
They finished in 27th last season, but now have roughly 45 day head-start on their free-fall!!!
It will take everything they have, but they could dive right down to the bottom and be assured of a top 4 pick, probably top 3.

Everybody, start reading up on:
Quinton Byfield,
Lucas Raymond,
Alexander Holtz
Cole Perfetti
Yaroslav Askarov

Bott's is likely to trade his 1st though, not too many worthy Dmen in the top 10...especially of the RhD variety.

- IonSabres


Byfield is legit. He is drawing comparisons to Lindros.


PrinceChill
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.06.2014

Nov 16 @ 9:03 AM ET
I mean, why stop there?
They finished in 27th last season, but now have roughly 45 day head-start on their free-fall!!!
It will take everything they have, but they could dive right down to the bottom and be assured of a top 4 pick, probably top 3.

Everybody, start reading up on:
Quinton Byfield,
Lucas Raymond,
Alexander Holtz
Cole Perfetti
Yaroslav Askarov

Bott's is likely to trade his 1st though, not too many worthy Dmen in the top 10...especially of the RhD variety.

- IonSabres

Which one of these guys is 5’6” tall?
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 16 @ 9:11 AM ET
Everyone knew the powerplay was unsustainable. Its Been below average since the hot stare.
Everyone knew the forwards were not good enough, except this regime apparently.

one thing that has remained constant is this teams ability to score 5 on 5 outside of 2 guys.

You can go back to the start of the season and there was concern from many of us about just that.

There are 8 forwards on this roster that have a combined 10 goals. That is just not good enough.

- ImThatGuy


No arguments here.
I have been accused of non-stop whining over the lack of enough forwards, and the imbalance of capable F's to D's.

As much as I dislike the current situation, I am trying now to just focus on how the play of the players that represent the teams future.
I got caught up in the black cloud of the pending UFA's, who we all know 80% of whom won't be here next season.

In that regard, I am very disappointed in the play of Dahlin and Mitts, as well as concerned about VO's 5v5 contributions.
I am pleased with Jack, Sam, Skins, Joker, Mojo (overall, concerning lately though).

I'm not so happy with the Coaching staff's reliance on Risto and McCabe, but do like the System they brought in...can they get the team back to playing it more effectively, tweaking it to overcome opponents adjustments? Will Granato be an improvement over Taylor?



IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 16 @ 9:18 AM ET
Why does it matter when a player scores a goal, PP, PK 5v5 as long as they score and as long as your team scores more goals then the other team, which the Sabres are having trouble doing right now. Most players score in streaks. The Sabres have to many players that can't even get on streaks and will be lucky to score 5 to 10 goals. It is alright to have a few that are like that, but not half your team.
- Buff36


SH goals are relatively rare, so I'll discount them from the discussion except to say that when they are scored it can change a game.

If your team is over-reliant on PP goals, other teams can and will reduce that advantage by focusing on taking less penalties, being more disciplined. IMO, they should be viewed as killer goals, not the engine that drives the team production.
My eyebrows were raised when Krueger mentioned it, then doubled down on it.

Most of the game is played at 5v5, without looking it up I would guess 80% (44 min of 60), wouldn't you want your team to be excellent there?
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 16 @ 9:21 AM ET
If the Bills lose tomorrow, I just might get as drunk as a life long homeschooler at his first frat party.
- buffalofan19


You're going to the game right?
Isn't it your duty to "represent"?
...irrespective of the outcome?

I can't imagine the reaction in Bill's Country if they sh!t the bed down there...but it is a distinct possibility, FitzMagic and all.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 16 @ 9:28 AM ET
Byfield is legit. He is drawing comparisons to Lindros.
- Pegullaville


He is EXACTLY what the Sabres need.
One can only dream of
Skinner, Byfield, Cozens
It would be interesting to see how long before it was established as the 1st line.

Maybe Sabres should target a trade of Risto, VO, Asplund and our 2020 1st for the team in the 2nd spot, lol!
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Nov 16 @ 9:31 AM ET
SH goals are relatively rare, so I'll discount them from the discussion except to say that when they are scored it can change a game.

If your team is over-reliant on PP goals, other teams can and will reduce that advantage by focusing on taking less penalties, being more disciplined. IMO, they should be viewed as killer goals, not the engine that drives the team production.
My eyebrows were raised when Krueger mentioned it, then doubled down on it.

Most of the game is played at 5v5, without looking it up I would guess 80% (44 min of 60), wouldn't you want your team to be excellent there?

- IonSabres

Yes I would, but we have to many players that just don't do that, we have what 3 to 4 players that are gonna score 20 or more, we need more players that are gonna chip in 10 to 15, and right now we don't have that. We can't count on are bottom 6, and that is killing them.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Nov 16 @ 9:49 AM ET
Another anti-analytics blog that's just so uninformed.

No one says the Powerplay doesn't matter to a team. From a team perspective, a goal is a goal. Rather Powerplay goals are less important when looking at an individual player. If for example a player scores 20 goals, but 14 are on the powerplay, how much is he really generating? Because he took one of the prime spots for scoring goals, and someone else in his place might have scored 11-12, so really, he only improved you by a few goals. He scored, but you were going to score anyway a lot of those times with a different player, and maybe even more.

Now, if he scores all those goals 5v5, those are goals scored when your chances to score are a lot lower. They're 'extra' goals so to speak.

For example, if I take Olofsson off the Powerplay and put Mittelstadt on, who has more goals? Probably Mittelstadt. That doesn't mean Mittelstadt is better, because he probably isn't as effective on the powerplay.
The point is when evaluating a player to look at their usage. 5v5 always translate, pp goals dont as well.
Looking deeper into how goals are scored helps you build a team properly.

As for the actual stats: Sabres are 8th in Powerplay, so no, the Powerplay is not to blame for them being 18th. As for the 'advanced stats that don't tell the story', well:

24th in CF%
28th in SCF%
28th in xGF
23rd in xGA
25th in High Danger Chances
19th in Shooting

The only reason they are as high as they are is that they're 8th in PP and 6th in SV%. Literally everything else they suck at.

If you want to ignore stats be my guest. But don't go out of your way to blast analytics when they're bang on and you're out to lunch.

- matty12345

The thing is, every single team has this conversation during the course of the season.

Because special teams play is as streaky as good goal scorers are.

They run hot, win teams games, run cold, lose them games, teams get lucky with other teams hitting posts or shooting wide, it seems the PK is great.

By years end, it’s usually evened out outside of the top and bottom 2-3 PP’s/PK’s
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Nov 16 @ 9:58 AM ET
He is EXACTLY what the Sabres need.
One can only dream of
Skinner, Byfield, Cozens
It would be interesting to see how long before it was established as the 1st line.

Maybe Sabres should target a trade of Risto, VO, Asplund and our 2020 1st for the team in the 2nd spot, lol!

- IonSabres


Nobody is trading a top 3 pick anymore. It’s the only way to acquire elite talent at a $950K salary (for now).

lulags
Buffalo Sabres
Location: St Louis
Joined: 02.24.2007

Nov 16 @ 10:23 AM ET
Nobody is trading a top 3 pick anymore. It’s the only way to acquire elite talent at a $950K salary (for now).
- Pegullaville

Exactly. They probably would not even consider Eichel for a #2 if said number 2 was scouted as elite or generational because of this
lulags
Buffalo Sabres
Location: St Louis
Joined: 02.24.2007

Nov 16 @ 10:26 AM ET
I’m becoming more and more convinced that
Eichel is the problem. Take the C away and maybe the attitude shifts. Put the C on Skinner or Rhino
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 16 @ 10:27 AM ET
Nobody is trading a top 3 pick anymore. It’s the only way to acquire elite talent at a $950K salary (for now).
- Pegullaville



One can dream.

Or, be like Colorado and try to pick the worst team likely as your trade partner and pray, pray alot, lol.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 16 @ 10:29 AM ET
I’m becoming more and more convinced that
Eichel is the problem. Take the C away and maybe the attitude shifts. Put the C on Skinner or Rhino

- lulags


If you're going that far, you are best off trading him...as it is likely he'll demand a trade anyway.
BeadyEyedDouche
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Rustmine Ramsum most exciting Sabres klugdragger since Taro Tsujimoto
Joined: 07.01.2016

Nov 16 @ 10:30 AM ET
I still can't believe Garrett hit Rudolph with his own helmet like that.

sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Nov 16 @ 10:30 AM ET
I’m becoming more and more convinced that
Eichel is the problem. Take the C away and maybe the attitude shifts. Put the C on Skinner or Rhino

- lulags

Peak Sabre fan right here. Peak
lulags
Buffalo Sabres
Location: St Louis
Joined: 02.24.2007

Nov 16 @ 10:31 AM ET
If you're going that far, you are best off trading him...as it is likely he'll demand a trade anyway.
- IonSabres

It send a message to Eichel that his attitude and maturity is killing the culture. If this message is not sent, the team never gets better anyway so let him demand a trade
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