Buy low candidate Josh Anderson

Also, Boston has to crash at some point...and more specifically... Pastaluck
- senstroll

xgf doesn't work for top or bottom players. the crash isn't coming. just a slight dip.

16-17 to 18-19:
games 223
gf: 168
xgf: 139

19-20:
games 31
gf: 31
xgf: 15

https://www.naturalstattr...ines=single&draftteam=ALL

leafs stats

corsi 14-16
shots 7-9
scoring chances 7-5
high danger 3-3
xgf .94-.57

score 0-0

seems pretty evenish overall...again without watching the game
- senstroll

where can I go to understand how xgf is determined?

I'd love to understand if its two guys in a basement OR its a real extrapolation based on actual data.

and in the same lane...

what qualifies as a "high danger" scoring chance?

where can I go to understand how xgf is determined?

I'd love to understand if its two guys in a basement OR its a real extrapolation based on actual data.

and in the same lane...

what qualifies as a "high danger" scoring chance?
- BorjeFan4Ever

xgf is a runaway train on averages.

it's a real extrapolation; but is used wrongly when used with the assumption that everyone moves towards certain averages.

it's a stat to tell you which guys are historically consistently above/below/at average. not a forecasting tool imo.

good question on hd.

where can I go to understand how xgf is determined?

I'd love to understand if its two guys in a basement OR its a real extrapolation based on actual data.

and in the same lane...

what qualifies as a "high danger" scoring chance?
- BorjeFan4Ever

There's a lot to it. It's not two guys in a basement. It's a bunch of guys in different basements, I would imagine.

http://www.corsica.hockey...nd-expected-goals-part-i/

This is an idea of the broader subject.

In summary, xGF% is basically is a weighted calculation based on shot type.
It is intended to consider shot location and the percentage of shots from those locations which typically end up as goals. So the home plate area in front of the net (the slot) is your High Danger area and this is where most goals are scored from. Low Danger areas - like the blue line - have around a 1% chance of going in and are weighted as such. The xGF calculation does not go on to give Shea Weber more credence than Nikita Zaitsev in this regard; it works as an average metric.

There's a lot to it. It's not two guys in a basement. It's a bunch of guys in different basements, I would imagine.

http://www.corsica.hockey...nd-expected-goals-part-i/

This is an idea of the broader subject.

In summary, xGF% is basically is a weighted calculation based on shot type.
It is intended to consider shot location and the percentage of shots from those locations which typically end up as goals. So the home plate area in front of the net (the slot) is your High Danger area and this is where most goals are scored from. Low Danger areas - like the blue line - have around a 1% chance of going in and are weighted as such. The xGF calculation does not go on to give Shea Weber more credence than Nikita Zaitsev in this regard; it works as an average metric.
- Monkeypunk

and this is where it fails as a predictor. it constantly will tell you crosby will revert to average stats.

instead, it should be used to tell you crosby it great because he doesn't revert.

and this is where it fails as a predictor. it constantly will tell you crosby will revert to average stats.

instead, it should be used to tell you crosby it great because he doesn't revert.
- Tumbleweed

I don't typically like to use it to consider player valuations because Crosby or Matthews or Ovechkin exceed these metrics on a regular basis, whereas other players like Connor Brown or Par Lindholm or Freddie Gauthier will fall far below these numbers.

I do consider it a relatively useful metric when considering the context of a game. You can look at the xGF/xGA from a game and get a sense as to whether a team is being badly outplayed as a trend or playing well as a trend. Typically when your xGF exceeds your xGA you will win more games than you'll lose. it does work as a predictor in that capacity.

I don't think it's particularly useful at the average player level - although you can also take the idea of range (how MUCH over xGF vs actual is a player, and should that excess taper to a more realistic excess) as a bit of a predictor.

and this is where it fails as a predictor. it constantly will tell you crosby will revert to average stats.

instead, it should be used to tell you crosby it great because he doesn't revert.
- Tumbleweed

I don't think that's how the really intelligent hockey people use that analytic.

Pastrnak has an exceptionally high xGF this year. The smart folks try to figure out why so that they can do a better job against the B's.

Is he getting to a certain spot? Is he cashing in on a lot of rebounds? Nobody that matters believes that he's an 'average' shooter and that he'll magically revert back to the norm.

Well he might ...and based on history he probably will ...but it'll be because teams are figuring out what's working so well for him as opposed to him just forgetting where to go and how to shoot.

He had a few shift were he was trying to get off the ice but could not.
- zazzle

Sorry for your loss zazzle

Bruins will finish first in the east.

And face the Habs as they take the 2nd wildcard spot.

This is the way.


- Scabeh

(frank) the Habs and double (frank) the Bruins

Anyone see the trailer for Messiah coming to Netflix January 1st? Looks like a winner.

When Ceci gets traded we'll get a great backup

leafs stats

corsi 14-16
shots 7-9
scoring chances 7-5
high danger 3-3
xgf .94-.57

score 0-0

seems pretty evenish overall...again without watching the game
- senstroll

Wilson and Chara just had a good tilt

Wilson is lucky he didn't die in that fight with Chara.

Amazing how Chara, the crosschecking King of the World, is immune to crosschecking penalties, but they can be called when he gets crosschecked.

Wilson and Chara just had a good tilt
- LeafGuy89

Meh wasn't that good... needed more toe to toe chucking them ala Probert and Domi and less wrestling but wasn't bad at all.

Looks offside to me.

EDIT:

man I'm totally bummed out and sad as I found out that my close buddy of mine has past away at the age of 53.
- zazzle

(frank)

Just had my golf buddy pass about a mth ago, almost made it to 51.

tell them to play them at a reasonable time. 10pm wtf
- senstroll

Use some holidays ffs, it’s the leafs.

Oh wow. Sharks fired DeBoer.

Whoah! Deboer and all staff save Boughner just got pink slipped in San Josey

Merry Christmas... get your shyte and get out!!!

When Ceci gets traded we'll get a great backup
- RogerRoeper

Who’s taking Ceci and what are we sending with him?

Whoah! Deboer and all staff save Boughner just got pink slipped in San Josey

Merry Christmas... get your shyte and get out!!!
- Roadrunner75

Babs has to be getting some calls you’d think.

Chara with 5 mins in pims


Good for the HB pool 🥰

Meh wasn't that good... needed more toe to toe chucking them ala Probert and Domi and less wrestling but wasn't bad at all.
- Roadrunner75

Well I mean in terms of fighting Chara he did pretty good. Still got rag dolled a bit but that's to be expected