I'm pretty sure we all knew this would be the case, but it's really been rearing it's ugly head recently. James Neal is as close to a guaranteed buyout this summer as one can get. His impact on whatever line he's on is perhaps the most significant negative factor on this team's performance outside of Smith's goaltending. At 5-on-5, he's been on-ice for 11GF and 24GA with the remainder of his -20 coming from EN and SH goals against. Breaking it down, his time with each C has accounted for the most substantial negative impact for each of them.

Having spent the most time with him, Nuge's numbers are 7-12 in 265 mins w/ Neal and 6-3 in ~153 mins w/o. That translates to 1.59 GF/60 and 2.71 GA/60 compared to 2.35 GF/60 and 1.17 GA/60. So clearly he's not a good fit with Nuge.

McDavid's numbers are 1-4 in 86 mins with Neal and 38-29 in 549 mins w/o. Small sample size warning but these translate to 0.70 GF/60 and 2.79 GA/60 compared to 4.15 GF/60 and 3.17 GA/60. Stark difference there and shows signs that those two also don't work well together.

Draisaitl's split is the most galling sitting at 0-6 in 56 mins w/ Neal and 35-33 in 560 mins w/o. Once again, small sample but these numbers translate to 0 GF/60 and 6.43 GA/60 compared to 3.75 GF/60 and 3.54 GA/60. Shockingly bad numbers and it baffles me how Tippett has yet to see this. This provides further evidence to my argument that Draisaitl struggles (mightily, in this case) without fast linemates.

Further, the goalie's with/without numbers also paint an ugly picture for him. Koskinen is posting a 38.1% goal share w/ Neal and 52.5% w/o while Smith is "rocking" a 21.4% goal share w/ Neal compared to a 43.1% w/o.
Both point to STARK differences between even strength performance when Neal is on the ice and it's not a by-product of harder-than-normal minutes.

I'm pretty sure we all knew this would be the case, but it's really been rearing it's ugly head recently. James Neal is as close to a guaranteed buyout this summer as one can get. His impact on whatever line he's on is perhaps the most significant negative factor on this team's performance outside of Smith's goaltending. At 5-on-5, he's been on-ice for 11GF and 24GA with the remainder of his -20 coming from EN and SH goals against. Breaking it down, his time with each C has accounted for the most substantial negative impact for each of them.

Having spent the most time with him, Nuge's numbers are 7-12 in 265 mins w/ Neal and 6-3 in ~153 mins w/o. That translates to 1.59 GF/60 and 2.71 GA/60 compared to 2.35 GF/60 and 1.17 GA/60. So clearly he's not a good fit with Nuge.

McDavid's numbers are 1-4 in 86 mins with Neal and 38-29 in 549 mins w/o. Small sample size warning but these translate to 0.70 GF/60 and 2.79 GA/60 compared to 4.15 GF/60 and 3.17 GA/60. Stark difference there and shows signs that those two also don't work well together.

Draisaitl's split is the most galling sitting at 0-6 in 56 mins w/ Neal and 35-33 in 560 mins w/o. Once again, small sample but these numbers translate to 0 GF/60 and 6.43 GA/60 compared to 3.75 GF/60 and 3.54 GA/60. Shockingly bad numbers and it baffles me how Tippett has yet to see this. This provides further evidence to my argument that Draisaitl struggles (mightily, in this case) without fast linemates.

Further, the goalie's with/without numbers also paint an ugly picture for him. Koskinen is posting a 38.1% goal share w/ Neal and 52.5% w/o while Smith is "rocking" a 21.4% goal share w/ Neal compared to a 43.1% w/o.
Both point to STARK differences between even strength performance when Neal is on the ice and it's not a by-product of harder-than-normal minutes.
- MaximumBone

For context, replacing Neal's current rates-impact with just an average 2nd line winger (say Toffoli) would place pretty damn conservative estimates of a difference of around 8-10 goals and we're not even halfway through the season.

I would be remiss if I didn't factor in his positive impact on the PP, but it's tough to say how much of that is him and how much another comparable player could do (Chiasson did pretty damn well on that front last year, for example). Before any Flames fans start feeling too vindicated, I'll restate that even despite all this I'm still infinitely glad to have gotten him in return for Lucic. The buyout was the real win of this trade for us and- while it's tough to quantify- Neal has absolutely been a more enjoyable player to watch between the two (low bar, I know).

Having made that qualifying statement, Neal is an abject negative to this team and we shouldn't expect that to change. Tippett needs to start playing him in an appropriate manner (soft 4th line alongside Haas who he's 2-2 w/ in a small sample and 1PP), but doing this likely requires Holland add a W for that 2nd line. Get the (frank) on it, Kenneth.

Where the hell did you find this?
- Wildschwein

Buddy, i already read interest:

Ten of those + 3 fantasy games of C/LW Nelson for one hand-signed Gränsfors Bruks and a picture of Rafi's alwayswound knees.

I'm pretty sure we all knew this would be the case, but it's really been rearing it's ugly head recently. James Neal is as close to a guaranteed buyout this summer as one can get. His impact on whatever line he's on is perhaps the most significant negative factor on this team's performance outside of Smith's goaltending. At 5-on-5, he's been on-ice for 11GF and 24GA with the remainder of his -20 coming from EN and SH goals against. Breaking it down, his time with each C has accounted for the most substantial negative impact for each of them.

Having spent the most time with him, Nuge's numbers are 7-12 in 265 mins w/ Neal and 6-3 in ~153 mins w/o. That translates to 1.59 GF/60 and 2.71 GA/60 compared to 2.35 GF/60 and 1.17 GA/60. So clearly he's not a good fit with Nuge.

McDavid's numbers are 1-4 in 86 mins with Neal and 38-29 in 549 mins w/o. Small sample size warning but these translate to 0.70 GF/60 and 2.79 GA/60 compared to 4.15 GF/60 and 3.17 GA/60. Stark difference there and shows signs that those two also don't work well together.

Draisaitl's split is the most galling sitting at 0-6 in 56 mins w/ Neal and 35-33 in 560 mins w/o. Once again, small sample but these numbers translate to 0 GF/60 and 6.43 GA/60 compared to 3.75 GF/60 and 3.54 GA/60. Shockingly bad numbers and it baffles me how Tippett has yet to see this. This provides further evidence to my argument that Draisaitl struggles (mightily, in this case) without fast linemates.

Further, the goalie's with/without numbers also paint an ugly picture for him. Koskinen is posting a 38.1% goal share w/ Neal and 52.5% w/o while Smith is "rocking" a 21.4% goal share w/ Neal compared to a 43.1% w/o.
Both point to STARK differences between even strength performance when Neal is on the ice and it's nota by-product of harder-than-normal minutes.
- MaximumBone

Neal is doing Neal things.... being lazy, slow and a drag on his line mates thank god the flames got rid of him!! Even if it is for lucic. Who has accually done what he was brought in to do all year. This will be an even better trade if Neal gets a few more goals and the flames get a 3rd round pick out of the deal.

For context, replacing Neal's current rates-impact with just an average 2nd line winger (say Toffoli) would place pretty damn conservative estimates of a difference of around 8-10 goals and we're not even halfway through the season.

I would be remiss if I didn't factor in his positive impact on the PP, but it's tough to say how much of that is him and how much another comparable player could do (Chiasson did pretty damn well on that front last year, for example). Before any Flames fans start feeling too vindicated, I'll restate that even despite all this I'm still infinitely glad to have gotten him in return for Lucic. The buyout was the real win of this trade for us and- while it's tough to quantify- Neal has absolutely been a more enjoyable player to watch between the two (low bar, I know).

Having made that qualifying statement, Neal is an abject negative to this team and we shouldn't expect that to change. Tippett needs to start playing him in an appropriate manner (soft 4th line alongside Haas who he's 2-2 w/ in a small sample and 1PP), but doing this likely requires Holland add a W for that 2nd line. Get the (frank) on it, Kenneth.
- MaximumBone

What would you guys want for AA? Could you build a decent trade around him for both teams? I think we could take Smith for one of our two starters in this too.

I'm pretty sure we all knew this would be the case, but it's really been rearing it's ugly head recently. James Neal is as close to a guaranteed buyout this summer as one can get. His impact on whatever line he's on is perhaps the most significant negative factor on this team's performance outside of Smith's goaltending. At 5-on-5, he's been on-ice for 11GF and 24GA with the remainder of his -20 coming from EN and SH goals against. Breaking it down, his time with each C has accounted for the most substantial negative impact for each of them.

Having spent the most time with him, Nuge's numbers are 7-12 in 265 mins w/ Neal and 6-3 in ~153 mins w/o. That translates to 1.59 GF/60 and 2.71 GA/60 compared to 2.35 GF/60 and 1.17 GA/60. So clearly he's not a good fit with Nuge.

McDavid's numbers are 1-4 in 86 mins with Neal and 38-29 in 549 mins w/o. Small sample size warning but these translate to 0.70 GF/60 and 2.79 GA/60 compared to 4.15 GF/60 and 3.17 GA/60. Stark difference there and shows signs that those two also don't work well together.

Draisaitl's split is the most galling sitting at 0-6 in 56 mins w/ Neal and 35-33 in 560 mins w/o. Once again, small sample but these numbers translate to 0 GF/60 and 6.43 GA/60 compared to 3.75 GF/60 and 3.54 GA/60. Shockingly bad numbers and it baffles me how Tippett has yet to see this. This provides further evidence to my argument that Draisaitl struggles (mightily, in this case) without fast linemates.

Further, the goalie's with/without numbers also paint an ugly picture for him. Koskinen is posting a 38.1% goal share w/ Neal and 52.5% w/o while Smith is "rocking" a 21.4% goal share w/ Neal compared to a 43.1% w/o.
Both point to STARK differences between even strength performance when Neal is on the ice and it's not a by-product of harder-than-normal minutes.
- MaximumBone

What a difference a month makes.
Buying Neal out this summer is a 1.9 million cap hit for 6 years plus the 750K retained salary on Lucic though 2022/23.
I'm not so sure that adds up to a guaranteed buyout?

To Oilers

JG Pageau (contact extension)
Vladislav Namestnikov (50% retained)
Conditional pick

To Senators

Jesse Puljujarvi
Gaetan Haas
Kris Russell ( cap space for #Oilers; vet D for #Sens )

What a difference a month makes.
Buying Neal out this summer is a 1.9 million cap hit for 6 years plus the 750K retained salary on Lucic though 2022/23.
I'm not so sure that adds up to a guaranteed buyout?
- DEDDIE

Yeah, when he's scoring enough goals on the PP to make up for it, covers some deficiencies but none of the reasonable fans were suggesting he would keep it up. It was nice while it lasted and it helped us start strong, but it's time to accept the reality.

As for the buyout, it absolutely is as far as I'm concerned. Saves us 3.5mil compared to what we would've been paying Lucic and we'll need every dollar possible to upgrade this forward group with proper NHL players. The long term ramifications of the buyout are mitigated a bit by the likely future cap increases. Not ideal but it just stresses the importance of learning from past bad contracts and not repeating the same mistakes.

I look at what Colorado did this offseason as a great example. They added a solid 2C (Kadri), a very solid middle-6 W (Donskoi) and a solid breakout candidate (Burakovsky) and that has their team competitive despite D corps that's still middle-of-the-road. If buying out Neal gives us the difference necessary to add our version of Donskoi or not, then I make that buyout 100% of the time.

To Oilers

JG Pageau (contact extension)
Vladislav Namestnikov (50% retained)
Conditional pick

To Senators

Jesse Puljujarvi
Gaetan Haas
Kris Russell ( cap space for #Oilers; vet D for #Sens )
- AlfieisKing

I would rather keep Haas, but I wouldn't let the deal fall through if that's the sticking point. I'd take it, but I feel like the Sens would want more.

What would you guys want for AA? Could you build a decent trade around him for both teams? I think we could take Smith for one of our two starters in this too.
- RafiDRW

I probably wouldn't want to do my backup shopping in Detroit but if I had to include one I'd go something like:

Athanasiou and Howard (50% retained)

for

Puljujarvi, Gagner, Smith and a 2021 cond. 2nd (becomes a 1st is he resigns and scores 30+ goals next year)

Breaks down to Jesse and half the 2nd's value for AA, Smith and half the 2nd's value for Howard (cap stays the same for each team w/ retention) and Gagner is included to cover the difference between AA and Puljujarvi. If it weren't out of the cap necessity, I wouldn't bother to include Gagner.

Does something like that tickle your pickle?

I probably wouldn't want to do my backup shopping in Detroit but if I had to include one I'd go something like:

Athanasiou and Howard (50% retained)

for

Puljujarvi, Gagner, Smith and a 2021 cond. 2nd (becomes a 1st is he resigns and scores 30+ goals next year)

Breaks down to Jesse and half the 2nd's value for AA, Smith and half the 2nd's value for Howard (cap stays the same for each team w/ retention) and Gagner is included to cover the difference between AA and Puljujarvi. If it weren't out of the cap necessity, I wouldn't bother to include Gagner.

Does something like that tickle your pickle?
- MaximumBone

I like it and would do it if you cut the scoring condition but keep the resigning condition.