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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Ghofrani: Sabres Win Third In A Row
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Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Jan 17 @ 3:51 PM ET
Mark stone is 10x the player Skinner is yet will never score the amount of even strength goals Jeff does.

Even playing with Eichel the most he can muster up was 63 points, doesn’t look like Jack is missing him much either.

- Pegullaville


So a player who scores at even strength at an elite level is not a good thing?

Skinner doesn't produce on the PP which is odd

But he produces where 75% of the game is played

63 points but 40 goals

If he was playing with Eichel this year he would have more assists than last season as Jack is shooting the puck more frequently in those high danger areas (something Skinner does well)

Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Jan 17 @ 3:52 PM ET
The new blogs are awesome! Keep up the good work!

Refreshing to read someone who talks about usages and actual plays and techniques, instead of the typical Buffalo fallbacks of effort and toughness. It's like the only point Paul Hamilton or Rob Ray ever make, regardless of what happens on the ice.

- matty12345



Thanks, Im glad you liked it!
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Jan 17 @ 3:53 PM ET
He was hoping Mitts would be a good mid fielder?
- dadeadhead


Sobotka was his center to start the year

Still not sure what Ralph was thinking there

Mojo and Skinner did have some chemistry brewing but then Mojo fell off a cliff and the Skinner got hurt

I mean Skinner is used to being shuffled up and down the lineup as it happened in Carolina but it's a head scratcher to take a 40 goal scoring winger off the number 1 line IMO.

hubie
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Matt Ellis is my patronus, NY
Joined: 06.28.2011

Jan 17 @ 3:54 PM ET
Thanks, Im glad you liked it!
- Michael Ghofrani


Everyone is here trying to get a 2C and all we needed was a new blogger

who knew
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Jan 17 @ 3:55 PM ET
Funny thing is this goal was given an expected goals value of only 15% by moneypuck.com. I suspect the key factors for that are Vesey’s angle of shot and that the model likely doesn’t have Ben Bishop sailing away in the wrong direction.

Doesn’t this kind of tell you that putting any faith in an analytic like expected goal % (from any given shot)....is just getting a bit ridiculous.

It simply can’t factor in an immeasurable number of intangibles. Sure you could say it’s a usable metric if, and only if, the shooter, goalie, and everything/one in their sphere of influence go exactly as planned....and when does that happen, 25% of the time....less?

- nikel



If you're focusing on isolated attempts than yes. Expected goals for is better used with a larger sample size. Its not an end all be all, no metric is, but even in its limited parameters it can tell us on average how a player influences the game.

There's obviously a margin of error/standard deviation, but in general if a player has a high expected goals for, you can say pretty confidently that when he's on the ice you're more likely to win that 5v5 battle than not. Context is important too which is why things like usage and relative stats are important.

Occasionally I'll pick out a goal like Vesey's last night because its good way to see the break down of a model through actually watching the game.
PrinceChill
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.06.2014

Jan 17 @ 3:56 PM ET
Mark stone is 10x the player Skinner is yet will never score the amount of even strength goals Jeff does.

Even playing with Eichel the most he can muster up was 63 points, doesn’t look like Jack is missing him much either.

- Pegullaville

And yet JB saw fit to give him the second largest contract in the history of the team. If I didn’t know better, I’d think this was a savage criticism of the GM.
hubie
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Matt Ellis is my patronus, NY
Joined: 06.28.2011

Jan 17 @ 3:57 PM ET
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Jan 17 @ 3:57 PM ET
Everyone is here trying to get a 2C and all we needed was a new blogger

who knew

- hubie



I have played centre before, does that count?
hubie
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Matt Ellis is my patronus, NY
Joined: 06.28.2011

Jan 17 @ 3:59 PM ET
I have played centre before, does that count?
- Michael Ghofrani

playstation x box.... sega genesis lol
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Jan 17 @ 4:00 PM ET
I have played centre before, does that count?
- Michael Ghofrani



Skinny guy, medium sized guy, or fat guy?
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Jan 17 @ 4:00 PM ET
playstation x box.... sega genesis lol
- hubie



nah i was always a cherry picking winger when i played on playstation
hubie
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Matt Ellis is my patronus, NY
Joined: 06.28.2011

Jan 17 @ 4:00 PM ET
Skinny guy, medium sized guy, or fat guy?
- dadeadhead

beautiful reference
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Jan 17 @ 4:01 PM ET
Skinny guy, medium sized guy, or fat guy?
- dadeadhead



Needed at least one, those guys created space!
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Jan 17 @ 4:02 PM ET
Skinny guy, medium sized guy, or fat guy?
- dadeadhead


lmao, medium? I'm no net front presence that's for damn sure
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Jan 17 @ 4:02 PM ET
Needed at least one, those guys ate up space!
- Stripes77





Fixed....
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Jan 17 @ 4:03 PM ET
lmao, medium? I'm no net front presence that's for damn sure
- Michael Ghofrani



😂😂😂
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Jan 17 @ 4:03 PM ET
beautiful reference
- hubie


Well over my head though haha
hubie
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Matt Ellis is my patronus, NY
Joined: 06.28.2011

Jan 17 @ 4:04 PM ET
Well over my head though haha
- Michael Ghofrani

Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Jan 17 @ 4:08 PM ET

- hubie



Nice, better than most EA covers tbh
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I root for draft picks but not the team, apparently, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jan 17 @ 4:10 PM ET
My wife just texted me to say that the tin man is at the bar where she is at and already three sheets to the wind. Not sure if he is still a top 10 center in the league.
jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Nashville , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Jan 17 @ 4:20 PM ET
My wife just texted me to say that the tin man is at the bar where she is at and already three sheets to the wind. Not sure if he is still a top 10 center in the league.
- Slump Buster

Did someone pee on him yet?
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Jan 17 @ 4:21 PM ET
Well over my head though haha
- Michael Ghofrani




I’m guessing you didn’t grow up in the 80’s/90’s then.
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Jan 17 @ 4:22 PM ET
I’m guessing you didn’t grow up in the 80’s/90’s then.
- dadeadhead


That is correct
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Jan 17 @ 4:26 PM ET
Did someone pee on him yet?
- jochfr



I wouldn’t pee on him if he were on fire.
Fattony1187
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.12.2015

Jan 17 @ 4:27 PM ET
So now you're changing your narrative

You hate the contract, I get it

But to say he isn't an elite talent is wrong

It wasn't a 1 yeah wonder either

- Stripes77



Change the narrative?? That was you. My post was about his contract being an Okposo contract and how his points per game was lower this year than okposos first two here. Your counter to it was he’s “elite”

It was a foolish contract that already looks bad this year. We hate the Okposo contract and he was at a lower pace than Kyles first two years. It’s only gonna get worse.

Huge first half last year, fell off a cliff the second half and he’s rewarded with a crazy contract. Was on pace for only 40 pts this year and now us hurt. Easily one of worst contracts in league right now long term
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