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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Evaluating Mike Reilly's Early Play in Ottawa
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sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jan 31 @ 12:46 PM ET
I don't really think my position has changed since the last time I wrote about him: https://hockeybuzz.com/bl...Ottawa-to-date/173/102471

He makes some questionable lineup decisions from time to time, like any coach, but he's got a team that has a tremendous lack of NHL-quality talent playing around the middle of the pack in terms of expected goal share. He's done a nice job.

- Michael_Stuart


make sure Spatso doesn't see that, he'll want to send him down to Belleville so that we lose more games
Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Jan 31 @ 2:21 PM ET
Pageau may only be worth a first in our eyes.
Certainly not a first in this year's draft.
We are patient - lottery protected 2021 1st we might get.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jan 31 @ 3:34 PM ET
Pageau may only be worth a first in our eyes.
Certainly not a first in this year's draft.
We are patient - lottery protected 2021 1st we might get.

- Octavarium


It’s all about supply and demand. TSN has a top 20 trade target list, and the only other center on it is Kyle turris (who’s on a terrible contract). For teams who want/need a center, pageau is pretty much the only option. If there are 4-5 teams who want him, Dorion will likely get what he wants.

And don’t kid yourself, pageau is worth a late 1st in this draft. Obviously they aren’t getting a top 10 pick for him, but he’s worth a late 1st and a prospect.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 31 @ 5:38 PM ET
It’s all about supply and demand. TSN has a top 20 trade target list, and the only other center on it is Kyle turris (who’s on a terrible contract). For teams who want/need a center, pageau is pretty much the only option. If there are 4-5 teams who want him, Dorion will likely get what he wants.

And don’t kid yourself, pageau is worth a late 1st in this draft. Obviously they aren’t getting a top 10 pick for him, but he’s worth a late 1st and a prospect.

- sensarmy_11


And, if they are not able to deal Pageau, perhaps he could be sent down to Belleville.

Seriously Pageau will likely bring a late first and good prospect.

Or, he might also get a top ranked prospect and a second.

I doubt he gets an elite prospect (eg Noah Dobson) on a straight up deal.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jan 31 @ 7:02 PM ET
And, if they are not able to deal Pageau, perhaps he could be sent down to Belleville.

Seriously Pageau will likely bring a late first and good prospect.

Or, he might also get a top ranked prospect and a second.

I doubt he gets an elite prospect (eg Noah Dobson) on a straight up deal.

- spatso


Still think you guys are over valuing him.

A first is overpayment, but the realistic kind we see each year.

A first plus is not realistic.

I think a lot if us made the same mistake last year at the deadline thinking Duchene et al would bring back so much.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jan 31 @ 7:15 PM ET
Still think you guys are over valuing him.

A first is overpayment, but the realistic kind we see each year.

A first plus is not realistic.

I think a lot if us made the same mistake last year at the deadline thinking Duchene et al would bring back so much.

- david22


Duchene got a 1st, a conditional 1st, and 2 really good prospects.

Dzingel got 2 2nds and duclair......and pageau is as good or better than Dzingel.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jan 31 @ 7:57 PM ET
It’s all about supply and demand. TSN has a top 20 trade target list, and the only other center on it is Kyle turris (who’s on a terrible contract). For teams who want/need a center, pageau is pretty much the only option. If there are 4-5 teams who want him, Dorion will likely get what he wants.

And don’t kid yourself, pageau is worth a late 1st in this draft. Obviously they aren’t getting a top 10 pick for him, but he’s worth a late 1st and a prospect.

- sensarmy_11

while that may be true, it also depends on whether a team will ACTUALLY step up and pay that (1st in 2020)

I think if the Sens get a 1st in 2020, they should take it.

Go until the deadline and then accept 2020 2nd + 2021 2nd and a work in progress player.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Feb 1 @ 12:52 AM ET
Duchene got a 1st, a conditional 1st, and 2 really good prospects.

Dzingel got 2 2nds and duclair......and pageau is as good or better than Dzingel.

- sensarmy_11

Who are the 2 really good prospects in the Duchene trade?
Is Daivdsson in the top 3 lines in Belleville?
Is Abramov much more than a 3rd liner on a good team in the NHL?

We got a first for Duchene and 2 players who didn't fit into Columbus plans...

The Dzingel trade has worked out because Duclair has made good on the ice time made available to him...

If we trade Pageau, I hope we get a first rounder in a solid draft. That would be very good value.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Feb 1 @ 10:13 AM ET
Duchene got a 1st, a conditional 1st, and 2 really good prospects.

Dzingel got 2 2nds and duclair......and pageau is as good or better than Dzingel.

- sensarmy_11


Duchene is miles better than Pageau.

And this kind of proves my point, Davidsson is not a really good prospect.

I like Abromov, and he's good, but really good is a stretch.

The Duclair piece was mostly a throw in, and Dzingel was a younger two time 20 goal scorer.

So I stand by my original comment that we tend to overrate these things.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Feb 1 @ 11:37 AM ET
Duchene is miles better than Pageau.

And this kind of proves my point, Davidsson is not a really good prospect.

I like Abromov, and he's good, but really good is a stretch.

The Duclair piece was mostly a throw in, and Dzingel was a younger two time 20 goal scorer.

So I stand by my original comment that we tend to overrate these things.

- david22


1) Duchene trade - I doubt many people are happy with the overall Duchene situation. Trading away a 4th overall pick (unintentionally), Shane Bowers, AND Turris for Lassi Thomson essentially. Abaramov is an AHL player right now. He's playing well there but has accomplished very little in the NHL.

2) Pageau - he's having a career year. I strongly believe that the reason why teams are reluctant to give a 1st this year (at least one of the major reasons) is how deep and rich the draft is. In most years, a very strong 2-way center that is on pace for over 30 goals. Even if he's a 20 goal scorer, he elevates his play in the playoffs, is a massive team friendly + character player. Teams would easily give 2 2nds, and it's a question whether someone will step up and give a 1st. I think allowing him to talk to a team about an extension (stone, turris) then I can see that happening without quesiton
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